Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 222344 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 744 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK. && 23Z UPDATE... CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DRYING UP IN WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS. ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ012>014. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ007>009. NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ006-008-009-011-015. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ001>005-007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$

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