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000
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...WITH
ONLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS AT
TIMES. DRIER AIR MASS DID INDEED SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AS
INDICATED BY MUCH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL AS LOWER DEW POINT
VALUES REPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ISLANDS...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS A LITTLE UNSTABLE. BUT THEN WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED IN TERMS
OF AREAL COVERAGE. ON THE OTHER HAND...CAN EXPECT THE USUAL SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL AS SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THESE WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AND WILL PROVIDE TRADE WINDS TO THE
STATE. WHILE LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH...THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AT TIMES AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN ALL...TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL WITH PASSING SHOWERS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...AT LEAST THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY BE
LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...AS TO THE TIMING AS WELL AS THE
EXTEND OF FAR NORTH THE SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE STATE MAY YET TO
EXPERIENCE THE RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT ON MONDAY...AND
AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY BRING MINOR BUMPS ON SOUTH
FACING SHORES...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT
PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST FACING SHORES...
POSSIBLY INCREASING A BIT IN THE COMING DAYS AS TRADES STRENGTHEN.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD AND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI