Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 301325
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
330 AM HST SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface high to the north will keep trade winds blowing over the
islands through the coming week. The trades will carry areas of
tropical moisture over the islands while a low aloft will make the
atmosphere unstable. This combination will keep the weather rainier
than normal through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033 MB surface high is centered 1520 miles north northeast of
Honolulu at 42N 148W. The high will remain nearly stationary with
little change through next week. The pressure gradient southwest of
the high will keep trade winds blowing over the main Hawaiian
Islands.

Water vapor imagery shows a low aloft 750 miles northeast of
Honolulu at 28N148W moving toward the north northwest around 5 mph.
As this low moves by the islands through early next week, it will
weaken the trade winds and raise the temperature inversions. Higher
inversions mean more-active showers. Showery low clouds extend far
upstream from the islands. An area of tropical moisture enhanced by
the low aloft will help boost shower activity through early next
week. Some of the clouds may be remnants of Hurricane Georgette with
remnants of Hurricane Frank following behind. A bigger increase in
showers is likely Thursday when another area of tropical moisture
moves over the islands. Showers may increase again over the
following weekend as more tropical moisture moves over the islands
from the east and a low aloft digs south and destabilizes the
atmosphere.

&&

.AVIATION...
With low-level winds weakening over the main Hawaiian Islands the
threat of low level turbulence has decreased. AIRMET TANGO has been
canceled. VFR conditions will prevail, but windward areas may
experience isolated MVFR ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small-Craft-Advisory
(SCA)levels for the next few days as a low aloft weakens the
pressure gradient over the area. The trade winds will strengthen
again by the middle of next week as the low moves off to the north.

There will be a series of small south swells into next week but surf
will remain below the advisory level. Only small surf is expected
along north and west facing shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
Donaldson



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