Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 312013
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1010 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NORTH OF HAWAII WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TRADES OVER THE WEEKEND. TRADEWIND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 08-E REACH THE ISLANDS. TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE STATE SHOW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE ALONG 40N AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED
CLOUDINESS UPWIND OF THE ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E.  THIS AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL PASS OVER THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP PLENTY OF
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER
OF ISLAND WEATHER BEYOND MONDAY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
BRINGS GUILLERMO AROUND 200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WE CAN EXPECT AT THE VERY LEAST A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS ARE
ANOTHER STORY ALTOGETHER AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL
TRACK GUILLERMO DECIDED TO TAKE. WE CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON THE SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE
WINDS OVER THE AREA. MORNING AMDAR REPORTS SHOW WINDS UP TO 30
KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 3-5 THOUSAND FEET. AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IS POSTED FOR AREAS OVER AND S THRU W OF
THE TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN VALID AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY.

TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH
SOME SHOWERS BLOWING OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR PHTO AND PHLI TERMINALS. CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER LANAI
ARE LIKELY TO CREATE PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT PHNY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. AS THE REMNANT LOW THAT ONCE WAS
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE...THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO REQUIRE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD OAHU AND KAUAI.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI HAS BEEN ISSUING BULLETINS ON
HURRICANE GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 1750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU. THE CURRENT FORECAST PREDICTS GUILLERMO TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN...LIKELY CROSSING 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE STORM REMAINED UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN THE FUTURE...ADVERSE
EFFECTS FOR HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...TANABE
AVIATION...EATON




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