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000
FXHW60 PHFO 051807
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
807 AM HST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD REFLECTION OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...AND TO REMOVE MENTION OF
POPS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH INTERIOR CLOUD BUILD-UPS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. WINDWARD SHOWERS FOR MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND THE TRAILING END OF A FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO KAUAI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE STABLE SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MODEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE WEATHER MAY TURN WETTER ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BIG ISLAND...AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 AM HST THU DEC 5 2013/

SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO A COL...OR NEUTRAL
POINT...ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
GENTLE TO FRESH EAST WINDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE ISLANDS. A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST HAS PRODUCED ONLY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THE WEATHER HAS BEEN MOSTLY DRY
ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREA WILL DECREASE BY
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
INTERIOR AREAS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SHOWING THE TRAILING END OF A FRONT WEAKENING TO A SHEAR LINE
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI ON FRIDAY. THE SHEAR LINE WILL
BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AROUND KAUAI
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE
SHOWERS COULD SPREAD TO OAHU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES SOUTH
NEAR THE ISLANDS AND OUR WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

AS THE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...AN AREA OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY SPREAD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS BUT
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE HAWAII TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS
AT PHNY. A LOW-CLOUD BAND MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS IN
CLD AND SHRA OVER THE E SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
PACIOOS BUOYS SHOWED A NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKING AT 6 FT NEAR KAUAI AT
MIDNIGHT...AND ON OAHU AROUND 200 AM. SURF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE
ADVISORY THRESHOLD. THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL STILL SHOWS MULTIPLE
MODERATE-SIZED WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE WAVEWATCH MODEL HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THESE SWELLS. LATEST RUN OF THE MODEL SHOWS THE BIGGEST SWELLS
COMING FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST STARTING SATURDAY...PEAKING BELOW
THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

SURF ALONG EAST SHORES WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED TODAY...THEN
SUBSIDE AS TRADE-WIND SPEEDS UPSTREAM DECREASE.

THE SMALL SURF ON THE SOUTH SHORES WILL GET EVEN SMALLER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A NEW SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND BUILD
INTO MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE. AN APPROACHING SHEAR
LINE MAY BOOST WINDS TO FRESH LEVELS NEAR KAUAI FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE...DONALDSON
AVIATION...BIRCHARD