Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 291541 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1041 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SHORT TERM UPDATE...
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Overall the forecast looks on track. Surface analysis at 15Z has surface front across Galveston Bay to Angleton to Victoria. Dewpoints have dropped into the low 60s/and upper 50s already and should mix well into the 50s later this afternoon. Winds will average about 10 knots from the north during the day with a few gusts. High pressure will continue to build thorugh the plains tonight and with clear skies/light winds, low temperatures should drop into the 50s for much of the area. Overpeck
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED / DISCUSSION... Calm and mild conditions have settled in across Southeast Texas early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. 3 AM CDT surface analysis showed this frontal boundary stretching along a Midland-Waco-Shreveport line, and this feature will continue to move south across the region through the remainder of the morning hours. Cold air advection behind this boundary will gradually overspread the region throughout the day, resulting in high temperatures ranging from near 80 degrees across parts of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods regions to upper 80s south of Interstate 10. Limited available moisture will make frontal passage today a dry one for Southeast Texas, but weak upglide behind the front over the offshore waters may result in an isolated shower or two. Otherwise, expect northerly winds to increase into the 10-15 MPH range behind the front with slightly stronger gusts possible during the afternoon and early evening. Quiet and pleasant weather is expected to continue across the region Friday into the weekend, as surface high pressure and drier air move into the region behind today`s front. Clear skies and light winds overnight will result in excellent radiational cooling, allowing temperatures for areas north of Highway 59 to fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday and Saturday morning still appear to be some of the coolest mornings the region has experienced since early May. Afternoon temperatures will generally rise into the low to mid 80s each afternoon through the weekend, but some locations in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods regions may not get out of the upper 70s on Friday afternoon. By the end of the weekend/beginning of next week, shortwave ridging builds back over Texas as a closed low now off the Pacific Northwest swings onto the West Coast. Ridging in advance of this system will allow for a continuation of dry weather for the region into the beginning of next week, but result in afternoon temperatures gradually warming back into the mid to upper 80s. Surface winds are expected to gradually veer onshore Monday into Tuesday and may see some Gulf moisture creep its way back into the region by the middle of next week (which will be most noticeably felt by warmer overnight temperatures). Upper ridging gets shunted east of the region by mid-week as the upper level system translates east across the Rocky Mountains, with the next cold front looking to reach the region late in the work week. While medium range guidance continues to offer timing and location differences with this upper system and associated front, region- wide rain chances are forecast to increase Wednesday/Thursday in response. Huffman MARINE... Low pressure over the Ohio valley northern plains will move east and drag a cold front across SE TX this morning. The front will cross the coastal waters early this morning and winds will become north and gradually increase in speed. The pressure gradient will tighten significantly tonight as cooler air (relative to the the water temp) and speeds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Mariners in small craft should exercise caution tonight. High pressure will build into Texas on Friday behind the front and winds will begin to relax as the gradient weakens. The high will move east on Sunday night and onshore winds will return to the coastal waters on Monday. Onshore winds will strengthen and likely persist for the first half of next week. Another cold front will cross the coastal waters next Thursday. 43 TROPICAL... Tropical Storm Matthew continues to drift west into the eastern Caribbean early this morning and is forecast to reach the central Caribbean by Friday. Track guidance remains in good agreement that Matthew will turn to the north late this weekend as an upper trough reamplifies over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, moving towards Cuba/Hispaniola and continuing north into the middle of next week. Matthew is not currently forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico and no impacts are anticipated for Southeast Texas. Huffman
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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College Station (CLL) 81 56 80 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 85 60 82 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 71 80 72 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 8 PM CDT this evening through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ Short Term...39 Long Term...11

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