Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 281731 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1131 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME PASSING CIRRUS. OVERNIGHT THE CHANCE OF FOG RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS FROM THE NAM... SREF... GFS... AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING FOG OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY MORNING/ EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS FAIRLY QUICK WITH THE FRONT AND PUSHES IT THROUGH THE TAF SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT HOLDING IT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE OLD EURO IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON HAVE GONE WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. 23 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/ UPDATE... UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMPS. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED MORNING DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MATCH THE OBS. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/ DISCUSSION... AFTER A NEAR RECORD DAY OF WARMTH...TODAY WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY WILL BE THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION. YESTERDAY`S LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE CERTAINLY WAS THE IMPETUS TO THE COASTAL WARM UP BUT...AS SOUTHERN GULF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH TOMORROW...TODAY`S REGIONAL WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE. AMPLE SUN UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT SOUTHERLIES WILL EQUATE TO ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MANY INTERIOR SITES REACHING AND SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING 75 F. AS INTERIOR DEW POINTS SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S/UPPER 50S OVER THE WATERS...THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PATCHY FOG (POSSIBLY SEA FOG) DEVELOPMENT. UPPER TRANSITORY RIDGING MOVING EAST TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO THE REGION FALLING DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE BAJA REGION UPPER LOW THROUGH LATE WEEK. A NEAR 1040 MB HIGH DESCENDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY WILL AID IN PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA LATE THAT NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING AIR MASS WILL COOL CONDITIONS DOWN AN AVERAGE 10 TO NEAR 15 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND AN ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST-EAST WIND. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH A DEVELOPING ROCKY MOUNTAIN LEESIDE SURFACE LOW...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...WEEKEND WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMES MORE EFFICIENT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN CWA PRECIPITATION (LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS) WILL BEGAN FORMING FURTHER EAST AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE LATE DAY HOURS. LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF -RA OR -SHRA WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FEW TENTHS TO SLIGHTLY OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET PROPERLY POSITIONS ITSELF FOR BETTER DIFFULENCE (RRQ) OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER AN OVERCAST...COOL AND DAMP SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT ALL LINGERING RAIN. PROG SOUNDINGS DISPLAY ENOUGH MID-LEVEL COOLING SUNDAY TO PLACE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON STORMS WITHIN THE GRIDS. THE BACKING COLD AIR MASS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT EARLY WORK WEEK WARMTH TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 F (AFTER A MONDAY SUNRISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S). THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF PUSHING THE 5H TROF AXIS EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MONDAY`S OFFSHORE WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND...UNDER CLEARING SKIES...A WARM UP WILL COMMENCE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. AFTER A MONDAY WHERE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 F... SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOONS WILL EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BY LATE WEEK/(LESS) CHILLED MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MID TO UPPER 40S. AFTER SUNDAY`S RAIN ON FEBRUARY 1ST...NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH. 31 MARINE... FORECAST GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE FORMATION OF SEA FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T APPEAR DEW POINTS CLIMB ALL THAT MUCH ABOVE CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURES SO FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS REGARD IS QUITE LOW. STILL WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE - MAYBE TO CAUTION CRITERIA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL QUICKLY RESUME OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS TIGHT AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME 30+KT GUSTS. NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WOULD ALSO POINT TO LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERING WATER LEVELS & NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBILITY FOR A LOW WATER ADVISORY. 47 AVIATION... ANY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FCST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF FOG/SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT (POSSIBLY DENSE) NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING - EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT LOW AND PROBABLY WON`T GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS SOME OF THE MODEL DATA JUST YET. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 72 46 60 45 / 0 10 10 10 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 52 73 48 61 46 / 0 10 10 10 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 56 70 52 57 50 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION/MARINE...23

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