Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 250457 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .AVIATION... COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME OF THE SITES OVERNIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH FOR POSSIBLE MID MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THEN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE NEXT BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW EVENING AS ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME BEING. WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WOULD EXPECT LOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A TAD AS ALREADY OBSERVING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST MINS. WITH TEMPS NEAR THE DEWPOINTS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED AREAS...BUT THINK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG. STILL ON TRACK FOR STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW PROGRESSIVE/FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS. IF IT TRACKS QUICKLY LIKE THIS MORNINGS STORMS...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE NUISANCE VARIETY. IF TRAINING OF CELLS OR REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND INITIAL LINE WERE TO OCCUR FLOODING COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS AN INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS...ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN RATES...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. 46 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/ DISCUSSION... SEEING SOME SCT TSRA REDEVELOP ACROSS N PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE HEATING AND RRQ OF DEPARTING JET ARE WORKING THEIR MAGIC. ANTICIPATE THESE TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IN THE MEANTIME...CAN STILL SEE SOME ISO STRONG STORMS/DOWNPOURS THAT`LL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OVERNIGHT SYSTEM MADE MUCH QUICKER EWD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED YDAY AND IS WELL INTO CNTL LA. (FASTER NAM12 ACTUALLY DID A RESPECTABLE JOB). ALSO SEE NO LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG I-10 ON CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS THAT SOME MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR TONIGHT - SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS ONSHORE FLOW AND LLJ FEEDS INTO IT. ONLY CANADIAN AND POSSIBLY LATER SPC HRRR RUNS DEPICT SUCH A SCENARIO NOW - THE REST (INCLUDING ECMWF) KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS GIVES US A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN EARLIER - BUT STILL NO GUARANTY. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED POPS IN RESPONSE. NEXT IMPULSE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN SRN NEVADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO TRIGGER ANOTHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD MID MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED ANOTHER FF WATCH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EVENING MON FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND LESS SO FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING CELLS OCCUR...AND ALSO IF THE EVENT DRAGS ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME IF IT DOES. IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY MIGHT OTHERWISE. SPOKE ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MON NIGHT REGARDING TIMING OF THE EXIT OF PRECIP. WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WOULD ANTICIPATE SCT (MAINLY AFTN/EVNG) PRECIP EACH DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES THE NEIGHBORHOOD GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG W/ HIGHER POPS UNFORTUNATELY. 47 MARINE... LOOKS LIKE A REPRISE FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY UNTIL MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT...BUT THEN TIGHTEN BACK UP ON MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BELOW 21 KNOTS TONIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. REGARDING THE TIDES...GALVESTON CHANNEL AND THE NORTH JETTY BOTH RECORDED TIDE LEVELS OF ABOUT REACHED ABOUT 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE TIME OF THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER LATE TOMORROW MORNING DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME. EVEN SO...WAVE RUN UP COULD STILL PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ON LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 84 71 87 74 / 20 90 70 30 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 72 84 72 87 74 / 20 80 60 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 76 84 78 85 78 / 20 80 60 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON... COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...46 AVIATION/MARINE...42

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