Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 072345 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 545 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016 .AVIATION... VFR. A LITTLE CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE SW. SSW WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IN SE OK AND NEARING KSPS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MARCH SOUTH TONIGHT AND REACH CLL AROUND 07-08Z AND IAH 11Z TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY AND THEN GETTING STRONGER AND GUSTIER AN FEW HOURS LATER WITH THE SUN COMING UP. STRONG WINDS IN THE PROFILE SHOULD MIX DOWN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-18KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 WILL BE LIKELY. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/ DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED EAST OF ABILENE ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE SE AND PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS SE TX EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SE TX BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE AND SFC DEW PTS COULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW 25 PERCENT. NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE (NW WINDS AT 925 MB OF 30-40 KTS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE) IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A MADISONVILLE TO HOUSTON TO FREEPORT LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NW WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF SE TX IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLD AND DRY ON TUESDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MODERATE. 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM AND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT TREND WARMER. SE TX IS KIND OF CAUGHT BETWEEN THE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT OVER SE TX REMAINING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT GETS DAMPENED BRIEFLY BY A WEAK S/WV NEXT WEEKEND IN WHICH THE FLOW BECOMES SEMI-ZONAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPING. OVERALL...THE WX PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS LOOKS DRY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. 43 MARINE... LIGHT...VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BREEZES JUST AHEAD OF AN EARLY MONDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY...EXPECT FRONT TO BE OFF THE COASTLINE AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 5 AND 8 AM. ALL BAY/GULF WATER ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A WEAKENING OF EVENING WINDS TO CAUTION OVER THE BAYS. CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN OVER THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL VEER OFFSHORE WINDS MORE WEST AND THEN ONSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWERING NORTHERN TEXAS PRESSURES WILL TIGHTEN THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY CREATE CAUTION LEVEL S-SW WINDS LATE THURSDAY. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES LENDING TO GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. 31 FIRE WEATHER... A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND MONDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20 PERCENTILE OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO YEARS. THE LAST TIME WE HAD A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER ANY PART OF THE CWA WAS MAY 4TH 2014. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING IN OVER TWO YEARS WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CORRIDOR COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WITHIN AN AIR MASS THAT MAY FALL TO UNDER 20 PERCENT RH. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 35 58 34 60 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 40 60 36 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 46 60 42 57 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...41 AVIATION/MARINE...45

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