Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 010451 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .DISCUSSION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS REMAINING SO FAR TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH MAYBE A MIX OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY FOR KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. THINK HOUSTON TERMINALS STAY VFR FOR THE MORNING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE BRIEF MVFR CIGS BUT SCT STRATOCU MORE LIKELY. CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE THE TRICK FOR TOMORROW. MONITORING TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE W GULF WHICH COULD SURGE NORTH AGAIN TOMORROW. HAVE VCSH/VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL INITIATE SO LEFT OUT MENTION IN KCLL/KUTS. MAY NEED TO ADD VCTS TO THESE TAFS FOR 12Z UPDATE. WHILE NW FLOW WILL STILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW...EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ DISCUSSION... IT WAS A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HOUSTON AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM PEAKED AT 3 TO 4 INCHES...AND A LOT OF THAT FELL IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD RESULTING IN THE FLOODING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE AREA WITH A SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE. DURING THE EVENT...WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW ONE RAINFALL RATE OF 0.56 INCHES IN JUST 15 MINUTES! EVERYTHING HAS CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE AROUND THE AREA TODAY. WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER BUSY DAY...AND MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. 42 CLIMATE... HOUSTON IAH SET A RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DAY TODAY WITH 2.26 INCHES (OLD RECORD WAS 1.52 INCHES IN 1948). THIS BROUGHT THE MONTHLY TOTAL UP TO 11.39 INCHES...WHICH MAKES JUNE 2015 THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. ALSO... - JUNE`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MAY`S 14.17 INCHES MAKES THE TWO MONTH TOTAL 25.56 INCHES WHICH IS 0.99 INCHES MORE THAN THE RAINFALL TOTAL FOR ALL OF 2011 OF 24.57 INCHES. - HOUSTON IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL FOR 2015 SO FAR IS 41.62 INCHES. THIS IS MORE RAIN ALREADY THAN WE HAD IN A YEAR FOR BOTH 2013 AND 2011. THIS IS ALSO WITHIN 2 INCHES OF THE YEARLY TOTALS OF 2014...2012...AND 2010. 39 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/ DISCUSSION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. AVIATION... MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 92 76 92 76 / 10 20 20 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 74 93 76 93 76 / 20 30 20 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 77 88 81 88 81 / 30 30 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...39

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