Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 210439 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1139 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014 .DISCUSSION...
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SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
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&& .AVIATION...
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MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ERODING AS THEY APPROACH SE TX. GFS AND NAM CONT TO DIFFER WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE PROFILE AND CLOUD HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT GFS SEEMED TO INITIALIZE A BIT BETTER SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC ARE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT SO NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. 43
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 1034 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/ UPDATE... SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION... WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA STATE LINE. SOME CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT ARE HAVING TROUBLE FILLING IN. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER SHOULD FILL IN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES ONLY TO GO SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN A SLIGHTLY WARMER START FOR TOMORROW MORNING THINK MONDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY WAS. FOG POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE APPROACHING 30KTS ON THE VWP. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN VERY MOIST AIRMASS CAN`T RULE IT OUT. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/ DISCUSSION... NOT TOO MUCH BY WAY OF PCPN FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTN...WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL NNW OF THE AREA. AS PER THE GOING TRENDS WITH THE MOTION OF THIS PCPN AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POPS SHOULD STAY OVER THE NRN PARTS OF SE TX TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT WAA TYPE SHRA OVER THE SRN HALF AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TIGHTENS UP. AS SUCH THE BLANKET 20% POPS LOOK GOOD. THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES TO LINGER MON INTO TUES MORNING GIVEN THE PROGS OF A VERY SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS TO BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUES AND WEDS. BUT MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PATTERN APPEAR TO BE OUR NEXT "BEST" CHANCES FOR PCPN STARTING FRI (AND MAYBE EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND). OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPS/INCREASING HUMIDITY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STRONG (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) COLD FRONT NEXT TUE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS HOLDS UP. 41 MARINE... OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY PERSIST. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER TX COAST AND MAY TURN WINDS TO THE SW ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK FROM THE SOUTH AND MAY BUILD SEAS TO MODERATE LEVELS. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 39
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 81 63 84 61 / 20 20 20 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 60 81 64 84 62 / 10 10 20 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 64 75 67 77 65 / 10 10 20 20 10
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&& .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION/MARINE...43

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