Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 162015 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION SO FAR IN OUR CENTRAL AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE FORM OF HARD TO TIME MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF ODILE`S CIRCULATION OUT WEST COULD END UP SUPPORTING THE AREA`S PROLONGED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN GETTING SOME OF THEIR RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS WITH DAILY TOTALS IN A 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. IF THESE TOTALS OCCUR OVER THE SAME SPOTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL HAPPEN. AT THIS TIME...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NEEDED. IF ACCUMULATIONS START TO ADD UP...FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LESS COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. 42 && .MARINE... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS TODAY HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BRIEFLY PICK UP AGAIN IN THE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. 23 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/ DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FORM AND CONCENTRATE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A BOUNDARY AT 850 MB. CURRENTS PWATS FROM GPS MET ARE AROUND 2.20" WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 30S. LIFT TODAY WILL COME FROM DAY TIME HEATING AND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIP CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE INLAND AND EVENTUALLY FILLING IN TODAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY FILL AROUND INTERSTATE 10 NORTH TO ABOUT KUTS. HIGH RES MODELS THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TOMORROW AS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN IN PLACE. 23 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 90 74 90 72 / 30 60 30 60 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 74 89 74 89 74 / 30 60 30 60 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 79 87 79 87 78 / 40 60 40 60 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...23

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