Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 030954 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 454 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .DISCUSSION...
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MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF SE TX TODAY BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THEM LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THEREAFTER THE FCST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET/DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MODER- ATE/STRONG CAA OVER THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO ABATE TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NLY FLOW PREVAILING WEDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST FRI...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO SLOWLY RETURN AT THAT TIME. WE SHOULD ALSO BE SEEING CHANGES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SQUEEZED BE- TWEEN THE TWO BULLSEYE UPPER LOWS ON BOTH COASTS BEGINS TO FLAT- TEN AS THE SYSTEM OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO DRAW DISTURBANCES ACROSS FROM THE WEST WITH POPS INCREASING BY THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL OPT FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE INTERPRE- TATION OF LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RETURN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. 41
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&& .MARINE...
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MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND MAY GET A NUDGE UP AS 850 COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS MORNING AND THE HAPHAZARD CAA IN PLACE GETS REINFORCED. WILL EXTENDED THE SCEC/SCA THROUGH 11 AM. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH NOON THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. UPPER S/W PASSES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL LIKELY REINVIGORATE THE CAA BRIEFLY. SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. OVER THE WEEKEND THE SE FLOW INCREASES WITH A LONG SE FETCH AND WILL LIKELY END UP WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 45
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&& .AVIATION...
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MVFR CIGS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THIS MORNING WHILE 9000-12000FT CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH LOWER SLIGHTLY BEFORE CLEARING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WED-FRI. 45
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 54 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 75 54 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 75 64 79 66 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
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&& .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
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&& $$ DISCUSSION...99

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