Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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503 FXUS64 KHGX 290851 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 351 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .DISCUSSION... As has been the case the last few mornings, widely scattered showers continue to develop over the Upper Texas Coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico. A few of these showers are moving inland but weaken rapidly. Upper air analysis at 500mb for 00Z shows upper level ridge over the Desert SW with another ridge over the W Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas. In between the two ridges is a weakness with slight troughing from the Great Lakes towards the Texas Gulf Coast. This pattern supports mainly NW flow aloft through the Plains with a couple of short waves moving across the Plains and Midwest. Water vapor imagery shows a TUTT over the western Gulf which will provide at least some ascent today as it moves towards the Rio Grande and Mexico coast. The CRP/LCh 00Z soundings show about 2 inches of precipitable water and expect this moisture to remain over the area today. Forecast will keep 20 PoPs this morning with an increase to 30/40 PoPs along the coast as lift from the sea breeze supports more scattered shower and thunderstorm activity during peak heating. A few of the stronger storms could produce some gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall like the last few days. Synoptic models are in pretty good agreement with the evolution of the upper level pattern for the next 7 days. The troughing over the Great Lakes into Texas flattens through the weekend and the upper level ridge near Carolinas retrogrades more over the N Gulf Coast by Monday. Precipitable water trends through the weekend range from 1.8 to 2 inches but then decrease below 1.8 inches going into the work week. Forecast will keep 20 to 40 PoPs for the weekend but expect a dry forecast going into the work week. Upper level ridge builds over much of the Plains through the middle of next week supporting a few rain free days and max temps reaching the mid/upper 90s. Heat index values will push above the 105F mark in a few areas for early next week but this will be typical for the end of July or beginning of August. The ridge seems to weaken a bit next Thursday/Friday as a weak upper low or TUTT forms over the NW Gulf during this time. Precipitable water values also increase to above 1.8 inches during this time. This will support the return of rain chances for the end of next week. Overpeck && .MARINE... Winds largely continue to be southerly and in the 10 to 15 knot range, generating waves of 3 feet or less. Radar shows a handful of showers over the Gulf zones, but no lightning has been observed. Expect much of the same through the weekend. The relatively quiescent conditions should also result in tide levels that do not stray too far from normal levels. Should any thunderstorms develop, winds and waves could be locally higher in and near the storm. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 76 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 95 77 96 77 96 / 30 10 30 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 92 82 92 82 92 / 20 10 30 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...39 Aviation/Marine...25

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