Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 300847 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE OVER WCNTL TX SHOULD CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME THE SRN PORTION OF A H5 TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTH TX. THIS TROF WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. RADAR IS CURRENTLY PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS NW OF THE CWA & WOULDN`T BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS SEE A COUPLE OF DROPS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT DRIER LLVLS WILL KEEP MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AT A MINIMUM. SAME GOES FOR NEAR THE COAST REGARDING SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY STILL SHOWING THE HIGHER PW`S CONFINED OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY RETURN BACK INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK...PROVIDING THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ESP TUE & WED. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/SEABREEZE WILL MAINTAIN SLT CHC/CHC POPS BEYOND THEN...OVERALL CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF AXIS MEANDERS EASTWARD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF/WHEN THIS SHIFT OCCURS AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON ITS EVOLUTION. 47 && .MARINE... NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE UPCOMING FCST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST HELPS TO MAINTAIN MAINLY LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE) S/SE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SOME SUP- PORT FOR ISO/WIDELY SCT STORMS DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME AS WELL. 41 && .AVIATION... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO RETURN TO SE TX BUT WE ARE SEEING ENOUGH DEWPOINT INCREASES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY BR THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE MORE SRN SITES. MVFR VIS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW MORNING. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 73 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 10 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 91 72 92 74 90 / 10 10 20 10 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 89 79 88 79 86 / 10 20 20 40 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$

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