Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 222326 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 .DISCUSSION...
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SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
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&& .AVIATION...
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VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE NEAR TERM CONUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE OF A MIDWESTERN SURFACE RIDGE FILLING IN ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO EAST FLOW PATTERN NEEDED TO KEEP MEAN LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEW POINTS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS NOW RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ASSERT A BIT OF AN INFLUENCE UPON EASTERN TEXAS...IF NOTHING MORE THAN TO FORTIFY PRECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MIX OUT WILL HAVE SURFACE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO UNDER 50% THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PACIFIC NW ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER AMPLIFIED WESTERN UPPER RIDGING WILL DIVE DOWN AND DEEPEN A LATE WEEK MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH WHILE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CHAIN OF EVENTS WILL AID IN VEERING EASTERLIES AROUND TO ONSHORE BY THE COB SUNDAY. THE EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE EQUATES TO NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES AND MAKES THIS SET OF PRODUCTS PRIMARILY TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FORECASTS. THE REGION MAY GET CLIPPED BY A THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS...IN TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGING ENVELOPING TEXAS...WILL VEER MID-LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR WEST COMPONENT. FLATTENED MID- UPPER RIDGING/NORTHERN GULF SURFACE HIGH...WITH WEAK ROCKY MOUNTAIN TROUGHING...MAY VEER MID-LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO WARM SUBSEQUENT DAYS BY A FEW DEGREES. 10-5H THICKNESS VALUES ARE MODELED TO INCREASE BY AN ADDITIONAL 50 OR 60 METERS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL REGULATE ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMTH...BUT HAVE INCREASED WEEKEND T NUMBERS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO SIDE WITH THE LOW STD DEV MEN NUMBERS. EXTENDED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EXISTENCE OF A PASSING TROUGH/FROPA HAVE JUST KEPT SLIGHT OR LOWER POPS IN GRIDS. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THE FASTER MORE SHALLOWER TROUGH PASSAGES (GFS) SO WILL REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON WHEN TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE DISCUSSION. 31 MARINE... TD 9 LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 06Z FOR MAINLY ELEVATED SEAS...BUT SEA HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DAMPEN OUT WITH TIME. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF NORMAL. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN... SPEEDS WILL APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. 43
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 83 58 85 58 / 0 0 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 57 83 57 83 58 / 0 0 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 67 81 66 81 68 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
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&& $$ DISCUSSION...39 AVIATION/MARINE...38

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