Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 251736 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .AVIATION...
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Primarily VFR. Expecting the redevelopment of patchy shallow fog across the northern air fields from late evening through sunrise. Mainly MVFR cat fog...with isolated (L)IFR over more rural terminals closer to 12Z. Today and tomorrow will be similar in cumulus field development/behavior with the bulk of the early day shower activity focusing across more southern hubs...more isolated interior -shra during the heat of the day. A weak east to southeast breeze through the period. 31
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 1012 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ DISCUSSION... Temps warming rather quickly this morning and 12z soundings support high temps in the upper 80`s NE to the lower 90`s SW. Have bumped max temps up a few degrees over mainly the central and southwest parts of the area. 12z soundings show a convective temp around 87 degrees but considering showers are already developing, it`s probably a few degrees cooler. Daytime heating should foster additional showers and storms through the afternoon. Other than the minor tweaks to the sky grids and Max T grids, rest of the forecast looks on track. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ AVIATION... Satellite and obs show some patchy fog developing north and west of Houston. Though it looks fairly dense in a few spots, expect the TAF sites to stay MVFR at worst. Any of those MVFR spots should rapidly improve to VFR, with another bout of isolated to scattered showers (and maybe a storm) this afternoon with SE winds to near 10 knots. Going into tonight, there`s still no expectation of change from the persistent pattern, with winds backing off and skies clearing. Looking for fog again overnight, with the most impact for the usual suspects like CXO. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/ DISCUSSION... Looking at 08Z observations and available GOES 16 satellite data, low clouds and fog appear less than the last couple of mornings. There is still plenty of time for fog to develop through the morning hours and expect there to be more patchy fog to develop across SE Texas. Today`s forecast is setting up much like the last couple of days. There may be enough moisture to support a few showers and thunderstorms with day time heating. Aloft 500mb heights have dropped a few decameters with the weak upper low over the northern Gulf coast. Given neutral vertical motion in the atmosphere, diurnal heating and any sea breeze boundary should be enough for storm initiation so will keep 20/30 PoPs in the forecast for today. Tuesday into Wednesday upper level riding should expand with maybe a few vorticity maximums rotating through the flow from an upper level low over the Desert SW. While 500mb heights rise slightly so does overall atmospheric moisture. Again with daytime heating look for 20 to 30 PoPs to continue through Thursday. Overall models are not highlighting any one day for higher rain chances. Thursday night into Friday while upper level ridging remains over Texas, a deep trough develops over the Great Lakes. This gives support for a cold front to push through the area later on Friday. The front still looks like a strong backdoor front with NE flow, but models are showing it pushing through later on Friday instead of earlier like previous forecast data had shown. Still there is good confidence that the front will push through but the effects may not be felt until the weekend. Conditions behind the front Saturday and Sunday do look to be more fall like with high temperatures in the low/mid 80s and low temperatures in the low/mid 60s. Surface dewpoints in the 50s behind the front will feel refreshing compared the the air you can wear 70 dewpoints. Relative humidity each afternoon could reach below 40 percent for the weekend. Overpeck MARINE... Light to moderate southeasterly winds can be expected into the midweek, before backing easterly as pressures along the coast dip slightly. Late in the week a cold front will cause winds to further back to the northeast. A push of drier, slightly cooler air is likely to increase winds and seas into the weekend. In the coming days, the persistent onshore flow will cause tides to run several inches above astronomical levels.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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College Station (CLL) 72 91 73 90 72 / 10 20 20 20 10 Houston (IAH) 73 89 73 90 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 79 88 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
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&& .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...43 Aviation/Marine...31

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