Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000 FXUS64 KHGX 290832 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 332 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .DISCUSSION... An upper low pressure trough will move across the state today and the associated cold front will push across SE Texas tonight. A line of thunderstorms was moving east of the Interstate 35 corridor at 3:00 AM. The latest models have been a bit slow with the advent of the storms; although, the latest runs of the HRRR are fairly close. All the models slow the advance of the line of storms as they enter into the western counties of the forecast area. If the storms continue their current trends, expect the line to reach College Station and Madisonville by 4:00 AM. If it does not slow down, the line should then reach Huntsville, Bellville, and possibly Columbus between 5:00 and 6:00 AM. All the models then show the line slowing and probably not reaching metro Houston until sometime between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM. Still looking at a decent environment for at least isolated severe storms. Main threats are damaging winds and isolated tornadoes given 0-3 km helicity values are between 300 and 400 ahead of the line. Other threats include large hail and locally heavy rainfall. Expect the initial line of storms to move out of the area during the midday to early afternoon period. The HRRR shows the potential for additional development later in the afternoon. The actual cold front will move across the forecast area tonight. After a cooler day on Thursday, an upper level ridge moving overhead will set things up for a rather warm Friday. Highs on Friday will likely reach into the mid 80s. The progressive flow aloft will bring the next system across SE Texas over the weekend and early next week. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on Sunday and Sunday night. Isolated to strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall again look to be possible. 40 && .MARINE... Southeast winds of 20 to 28 knots will continue across the Upper Texas Coast this morning. Seas have become rough with significant wave heights reaching 6-7ft nearshore and 8-9ft off shore based on NOAA buoys. Winds should decrease later today but due to the long fetch of southeast winds, seas will remain rough. Small craft advisory has been extended for the offshore waters until this evening when seas should drop below 7 feet. A Pacific front will push off the coast Thrusday morning allowing for winds to shift to the northwest. Winds quickly return to the south on Friday and increase through the weekend. Caution or advisories may be needed over the weekend. Another Pacific front pushes through early Monday which will shift winds again. Overpeck && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 82 56 77 56 86 / 80 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 81 61 78 57 86 / 80 40 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 66 74 66 78 / 70 50 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 AM CDT this morning through this evening for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...40 Aviation/Marine...39

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