Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 251631
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID MAY 25/1200 UTC THRU MAY 29/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST THU-SAT
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS THU-SUN
WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST WED
KICKER SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WED/THU
WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR CENTRAL US/CANADIAN BORDER
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES.  WE
PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE TO DEAL WITH LINGERING DETAIL
ISSUES, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.



SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY MAINE FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM TAKES THIS SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER TO MAINE THAN THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE 00Z WELL-CLUSTERED GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SURFACE LOW POSITIONS BEST AGREES WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/0Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/12Z GFS, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


UPPER LOW DRIFTING E OF FLORIDA
CONVECTIVE LOW TRACKING N OF BAHAMAS FRI/SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/NAM COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC OUTLOOKS

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC), AS WELL AS THE 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING, FAVORS A SOLUTION MOST SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
CANADIAN/12Z NAM, SO A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO IS PREFERRED BY
DEFAULT.  SEE NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE CONCERNING
THIS CONVECTIVE LOW.



...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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