Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 301636
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1235 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VALID JUL 30/1200 UTC THRU AUG 03/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
TERM FORECASTS.


NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET IS STRONGER WITH ENERGY MOVING FROM NV INTO THE
NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THAN SEEN
ON THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  SINCE IT IS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE,
BELIEVE A WEAKER NON-UKMET SOLUTION IS IDEAL WITH THIS ENERGY,
CLOSEST TO A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS.

WITH ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY, THE
12Z CANADIAN WAS A DEEP OUTLIER -- ITS USUAL BIAS.  A NON-CANADIAN
SOLUTION LOOKS BEST IN THIS REGION PER THE CANADIAN`S BIAS.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE CHOICES ARE ABOVE AVERAGE.


TROUGH IN THE PLAINS/EAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE.  A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE IS ADVISED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
MINIMAL MODEL SPREAD.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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