Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 270430
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1229 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VALID MAY 27/0000 UTC THRU MAY 30/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRI/SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS...BUT THE OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
00Z NCEP MODELS AND THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NON NCEP MODELS REMAINS
GOOD.


SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z NCEP MODELS AND THE 26/12Z CANADIAN
SHOULD YIELD AN ACCEPTABLE SOLN TO DEAL WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH AND TIMING.  WITH NO REAL SHIFT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER FROM
THE OTHER MODELS...THE 12Z UKMET REMAINED AN OVERLY DEEP OUTLIER.


UPPER LOW IN THE FL STRAITS
CONVECTIVE LOW APPROACHING SOUTHEAST COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

GIVEN RELATIVELY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BY THE NCEP
GUIDANCE...THE 26/12Z CANADIAN REMAINED ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE GUIDANCE.  SAW NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
PREFERRENCES FROM THE DAY SHIFT.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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