Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 181623
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1222 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017

VALID SEP 18/1200 UTC THRU SEP 22/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THE SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA
FRONT MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CLOSEST TO THE UKMET; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVE

THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST WITH THE PARENT
UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA.  THE
06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A SLOWER PROGRESSION AS
DOES THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURING STRONG UPSTREAM RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AK/THE YUKON.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z NAM, 00Z
UKMET, 00Z ECMWF, AND 00Z CANADIAN IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


NEW CLOSED LOW/ENERGY REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCING INTO WESTERN WA TUES NIGHT/WED
DEEP TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER THE WEST BY THURSDAY
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST REGION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET, 12Z NAM, AND
12Z GFS IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


HURRICANE JOSE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF; SEE NHC PRODUCTS

THE 00Z ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO THE 15Z NHC TRACK FOR JOSE.  SEE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FOR MORE ON
JOSE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

ROTH
$$





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