Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 230424
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1223 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID OCT 23/0000 UTC THRU OCT 26/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...PLEASE NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF SATELLITE INFORMATION
INGESTED INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUES WITH UNCERTAIN
IMPACTS. PLEASE REFERENCE SDM ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGES UNDER AWIPS
PIL ADMNFD FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GFS/UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE BEST 12Z ENSEMBLE LOW CENTER CLUSTERING IS WITH THE 00Z
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF CONSENSUS, WHICH WAS PREFERRED DUE TO THE
OCCASIONAL SLOW BIAS SEEN IN NAM SOLUTIONS THREE DAYS INTO THE
FUTURE.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  SOLUTION TOWARDS THE NAM/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE:  SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED/SOUTHERLY SOLUTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT.


UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GFS/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE DEPTH/PROGRESSION OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN BEST FITS THE
12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.  THE 12Z UKMET WAS THE SLOWEST,
WHICH WAS RULED OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE 12Z ECMWF WAS WEAKER THAN
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THIS SYSTEM`S DEPTH, WHICH IS NORMALLY A
RED FLAG.


CYCLONE MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  HIGH

THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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