Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS10 KWNH 290445
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1244 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NCEP MODEL RUNS WERE LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS HERE...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE WAS NO MAJOR SHIFT IN
WHERE THE GUIDANCE FIT IN THE ENVELOPE OF SOLNS FROM THE DAY
SHIFT.  WILL MAKE NO CHANGE TO THE PREFERENCE AT THIS POINT.


CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE 28/12Z RUNS OF THE CANADIAN
AND ECMWF IN DEPICTING A CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WILL CONTINUE TO PREFER THOSE MODELS...WITH THE SUBSTITUTION OF
THE 00Z GFS IN PLACE OF THE 27/12Z GFS.


SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO PREFER A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


TROPICAL STORM BONNIE APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST
REASONING.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$




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