Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 202253
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
253 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AFTER FINAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE MOVING EAST INTO
THE CENCAL COAST. REGIONAL RADAR IS INDICATING THAT THE BACK EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP HAS MOVED THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND CONTS TO
MAKE ITS WAY INLAND. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

MODELS ARE PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH FRESNO BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT IN
FRESNO. THE FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND
RAIN SHADOWING IS EXPECTED NEAR TAFT AND SW SJV. WE ARE LOOKING
AT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND DZ TOMORROW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE REALLY
KEYING IN ON THIS FOR FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
GETTING A FEW HUNDRETHS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN SEE UP TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH NEAR YOSEMITE AND LESS AS YOU GO FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS
LAKE ISABELLA.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN THE FINAL SYSTEM IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THIS ONE WITH LITTLE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL CA
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE NOT DIGGING MUCH OF A TROUGH WITH THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT SYSTEM...SO IT WILL ALSO BE A WARM SYSTEM WITH HIGH SNOW
LEVELS REMAINING AT 8500-9500 FEET. WE ARE LOOKING FOR AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN YOSEMITE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY A FEW
HUNDRETHS NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY IN THE VALLEY.

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD WED AND THURS. THE ECM IS DIGGING IN A
TROUGH WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN PRECIP AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS WARM
AND DRY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS PUTTING IN SOME QPF FOR
THAT TIME FRAME AND WE ARE TAKING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GOING
WITH CLIMO POPS FOR WED AND THURSDAY WHICH KEEPS THE VALLEY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA BETWEEN
03Z FRIDAY AND 19Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FRIDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 19Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 20 2014... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KINGS...
MADERA AND MERCED COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-20       80:1936     51:1972     62:1950     27:1977
KFAT 11-21       81:2002     48:1931     60:1950     30:1956
KFAT 11-22       77:1890     48:1931     57:1950     28:1931

KBFL 11-20       83:1926     49:1922     64:1950     27:1906
KBFL 11-21       83:1926     48:1931     61:1996     26:1905
KBFL 11-22       80:1945     45:1906     59:1950     27:1931
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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