Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 292055
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
155 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AWAY
FROM EXTREME HIGHS BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE LOW TO BE
DRY...AND WEBCAMS AROUND THE AREA CONFIRM THIS AS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
ARE VISIBLE. HOWEVER...A CUMULUS CLOUD NEAR BUCK ROCK WAS BEGINNING
TO SHOW SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTING THAT DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY STILL BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO
THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

OTHERWISE...THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED SOME WARMING TODAY.
THIS WAS AFTER ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT WHICH SAW BAKERSFIELD
LIKELY TIE ITS RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY OF 58
DEGREES...SET IN 1978. FRESNO/S LOW SO FAR HAS BEEN 53 DEGREES...
WELL BELOW ITS RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY OF 59
DEGREES...SET IN 1986.

AT 20Z /1300 PDT/...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND WERE RUNNING
UP TO 3 DEGREES OVER 20Z SATURDAY. VALLEY TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S...AND FRESNO LIKELY WILL COME WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF ITS RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY OF 87 /SET IN 1969/.
BAKERSFIELD/S RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 94 /SET IN 2004/ AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT MEADOWS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL BELOW THAT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER CALIFORNIA
MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL WARMING. BOTH AND BAKERSFIELD AND
FRESNO COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S AND BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MARCH 30TH.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 500-MB 5700-
METER LINE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OF FRESNO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...
AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE START OF APRIL.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL. THIS IMPACTS THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT-WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL
OF A DEEPER TROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT CONTINUITY
WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE ECMWF TIMING AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE
FOLLOWED BY WARMING FRIDAY.

ONE CHANGE WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO MATCH WFO SACRAMENTO. OTHERWISE...HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AFTER THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891
KFAT 03-30       85:2003     52:1936     58:1978     31:1897
KFAT 03-31       89:1966     50:1967     58:1986     31:1905

KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907
KBFL 03-30       88:1923     57:1904     59:1978     30:1907
KBFL 03-31       90:2003     50:1925     60:1969     32:1908

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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