Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 220953
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
253 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN CA THURSDAY WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WE ARE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY.

WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS UNFORTUNATE TREND WITH THE PAST TWO
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CA REGION
OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. IN THE DAY 6-8 TIME RANGE WE ARE
SEEING AMPLE MOISTURE WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. HOWEVER AS WE START TO GET INTO THE DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE WE
ARE SEEING LESS MOISTURE AND BY THE TIME WE ARE IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME RANGE WE ARE SEEING EVEN LESS AND BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
EVENT WE ARE SEEING NO MOISTURE...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. WELL THIS
WEEKENDS SYSTEM APPEARS TO TO BE NO DIFFERENT. NEW RUNS OF THE GFS
ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM12 GOES
OUT TO 84 HOURS (12Z SATURDAY) AND IT IS SHOWING A VERY DRY FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST. THE CONTINUED OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF AND WE
ARE NOT PUTTING MUCH WEIGHT IN ITS WET SOLN ATTM. IT HAS BEEN
OVERDOING THE QPF AND THEN COMES IN LINE WITH THE DRIER GFS NEAR
THE EVENT.

THE TROUGH IS A QUICK HITTER AND COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME WARMING BY TUESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WED. WE HAVE ADDED
CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED WHICH PRIMARILY FOCUSES ON POPS IN THE
SIERRA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956

KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
PREV DISCUSSION...99
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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