Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 011014
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRODUCING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A
DRYING AND COOLING TREND EXPECTED TO START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE MAIN AXIS OF SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND IS BRUSHING THE SIERRA
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NV. UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS. DEEPENING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AS ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH NV WILL MOVE NE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL EJECT INTO NRN CA THROUGH WED WITH INC ONSHORE FLOW
AND LOWERING H500 HEIGHTS. MARINE AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER VALLEY TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND KEEP US AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW CENTER OFF THE CENTRAL COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE INTO
NRN CA BY SAT WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DROP OFF AFTER SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. WE WILL SEE MORE MIXING OF THE AIRMASS AS
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. WE ARE EXPECTING
BETTER MIXING AND IMPROVED SMOKE CONDITIONS TO AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956
KFAT 08-03      110:1946     80:1976     78:2014     55:1953

KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912
KBFL 08-03      112:1938     81:1953     81:1974     53:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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