Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 301049
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
349 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure continue to bring hot temperatures through
the weekend. Afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms
are possible along the Sierra crest each day through early next week
and will possibly spread into the Kern County mountains and desert
during the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear and dry across the central CA interior
tonight. Water vapor images show little change in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere with a large ridge extending from
the desert SW to well into the E Pac. So another mostly sunny and
hazy day is expected across central CA. Temperature trends are mix
of up and down. Thus expect little change with similar
temperatures as yesterday. Shower and thunderstorms occurred over
the sierra high country and mojave desert toward the colorado
river yesterday afternoon. Some dew point increases in San
bernardino county indicate some of the moisture may move into E
Kern county this afternoon for possible convective storm
development this afternoon. High resolution Models indicating
instability and CAPES are sufficient for isolated thunderstorms.

Models have been trending downward with the amount of mid level
moisture across central CA Sunday due to a short pushing through
the Pac NW. Have therefore decreased precipitation chances a bit.
Although isolated thunderstorms will remain possible each
afternoon and evening along the Southern Sierra crest through the
weekend where there will be sufficient instability and
orographics.

The medium range models continue to indicate a second upper level
low pushing into the PAC NW Monday night and tuesday which will
flatten the strong upper ridge that has provided our area with the
hot temepratures over the past several days. Heights and
thicknesses will lower slightly Sunday through Tuesday which will
allow for temperatures to cool slightly through the period. The
flow aloft will turn westerly by Monday and push any monsoonal
moisture well to the east of our area by Tuesday. Although
temperatures will lower some early next week, afternoon highs will
still reach the triple digits across most of the San Joaquin
Valley and Kern County Deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...
isolated thunderstorms are expected over the mountains and Mojave
dessert between 20z Saturday and 03z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail throughout the central California interior
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution
Control District has issued an Air Quality Alert due to smoke
impacts in San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings,
Tulare, and the Valley Portion of Kern Counties from the Soberanes
Fire. For details, please refer to the SFOAQAHNX.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
evening CAZ098-099.

&&

$$

public...MV
avn/fw...Dudley
prev discussion...DS
synopsis...MV

weather.gov/hanford



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