Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 230042 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
442 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Updated Air Quality Section...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...Sunshine is boosting temperatures to unseasonably
warm levels across the central California interior this afternoon.
At 1 pm PST, several automated temperature gages in the foothills
were above 80 degrees. As of this writing, it is 86 degrees in
Oakhurst and at the RAWS station in North Fork and Democrat. No
doubt, high temperature records in many locations will either be
tied or broken today. A repeat performance is likely tomorrow as
a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over Baja California
remains in control. In fact, Thanksgiving Day could end up as one
of the warmest on record in Fresno and Bakersfield. The holiday
might be warm enough in the San Joaquin Valley, lower foothills
and the Kern county desert to consider moving the afternoon
turkey feast outdoors!

The upper level ridge will remain anchored over Baja through
Saturday and continue to bring dry weather and well above normal
afternoon temperatures to the central California interior. High
temperatures on Black Friday and Saturday will generally be in
the 70s over much of the San Joaquin Valley, lower foothills and
the Kern county desert. Saturday might be a tad warmer than Friday
as the ridge over Baja amplifies a bit ahead of an approaching
upper level trough over the eastern Pacific. In the warmest
locations, thermometer readings could again top the 80 degree
mark Saturday and put high temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley
back in record setting territory. (High temperature records for
FAT and BFL are provided below.) Otherwise, skies will be
generally clear through Saturday night (some cirrus at times) and
the nights will be relatively cool to chilly. In the San Joaquin
Valley, patchy dense fog during the late night and morning hours
will be the only travel woe through Saturday.

The latter part of the holiday weekend will be cloudier, blustery
and noticeably cooler across the CWA. The cold front that was
mentioned earlier in this discussion will move southward through
the central California interior Sunday afternoon and evening.
Although this system will be limited on moisture, it will bring
precipitation to much of the CWA except for the desert. Unless
this system taps into subtropical moisture, we`re expecting
generally less than a tenth of an inch of rain from it in the
San Joaquin Valley, up to a quarter of an inch in the Sierra
foothills and a half inch to an inch of precip over the higher
elevations of the Sierra north of Kings Canyon between Sunday
afternoon and Monday afternoon. A strong 300 mb jet associated
with this storm system will enhance orographic precip along the
western slopes of the Sierra Sunday afternoon and evening and
also support brisk westerly winds over the summits and in the
Kern county mountains and desert. So folks heading back home
from their holiday visits might be impacted by gusty winds,
rain slicked highways and high Sierra snow later this weekend.

By the time this storm exits into the Great Basin Monday
afternoon, it may leave behind up to a foot of new snow over
the highest elevations of the Sierra. In its wake, high temps
Monday will finally return to near normal. Tuesday through next
Wednesday will be mostly clear and a little warmer, especially
over the higher terrain as an upper level ridge of high pressure
builds over central California. In the San Joaquin Valley, night
and morning low clouds and fog might become a travel woe on days
6 and 7. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail in the extended
forecast period.

On a final note, the National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley
office wishes everyone a safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving holiday!

                      RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
                  ------------------------------
                      FRESNO         BAKERSFIELD
    Nov 22nd          77/1890          80/1945
    Nov 23rd          78/1932          82/2015
    Nov 24th          78/1939          87/1917
    Nov 25th          76/1933          79/1914

&&

.AVIATION...
In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR in haze can be expected
during the next 24 hours. Local IFR/LIFR conditions in fog redevelop
during 08Z thru 18z Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
across the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday November 23 2017... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kings County.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning
Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings... Madera... Merced
and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...JDB
avn/fw...BSO
prev discussion...Durfee
synopsis...JDB

weather.gov/hanford



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