Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 181015
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE VALLEY AND
FOOTHILLS. A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST ALONG THE CREST OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND ENDING SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEST COAST RIDGE REMAINS AS THE DOMINATE FEATURE WITH CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING OVER CALIFORNIA. WHILE CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEATHER. YET...AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE RISE OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND VERY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THIS SATURDAY...THE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUD COVER BEING OBSERVED TODAY. THEREFORE...
TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND STILL WARM
OVER THE VALLEY AS CLOUDS FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A TROF MOVED
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. DURING ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE WEST
COAST...IT DROPPED A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL RETROGRADE AND FORM
A WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

THE LOW WILL THEN DROP TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD MONDAY.
A PIECE OF VORT LOBE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SIERRA NEVADA AS
THE LOW DROPS TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS VORT LOBE ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED DYNAMICS TO FIRE-UP CONVECTION OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST ON SUNDAY. THE TREND IS TO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS BETTER FORCING ALLOW
FOR MORE CONVECTION. BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
INSTABILITY THAT FORMED ON SUNDAY MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVEN
WITH THE LACK OF DYNAMICS.

A BIGGER CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR TOWARD MID WEEK. WHILE
MODELS DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTION OF INTRODUCING AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. YET...WILL KEEP TUESDAY AS THE ONSET OF
A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION. MODELS DO SHOW HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE MID-WEEK STORM..BUT...WILL MENTION PRECIP FOR THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY STORM EVENT WITH WEDNESDAY SHOWING THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS INDICATED
TO MOVE FURTHER TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS YET ANOTHER STORM
MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS...IT MAY BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE
DISTRICT DRY/S AND CLEARS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941
KFAT 04-19       93:2009     54:1967     64:1938     35:1955
KFAT 04-20       96:2009     53:1957     62:1989     36:1896

KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
KBFL 04-19       98:1910     54:1967     62:1938     38:1996
KBFL 04-20       98:1906     59:2007     64:1939     36:1904
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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