Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 290933
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
233 AM PDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DESERT AND
MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PERSIST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED SUB TROPICAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS PROVIDED SOME
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND A FEW SPRINKLES
ELSEWHERE YESTERDAY. INCREASED HUMIDITY AND LOWER TEMPS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN IS
BEING STEERED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS.

THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS SOARING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS. POOR OVERNIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM. ANOTHER SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODERATE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
THE WEST SIDE THE CLOCKWISE FLOW OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL COOL
THINGS OFF THURSDAY AND EVEN MORE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

MODELS HAVE BEEN NOT HANDLING THE QPF VERY WELL AT ALL AND HAVE
HAD TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE DOWNWARD TREND. HOWEVER WE MAY SEE
MORE PRECIPITATION AS DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES NORTH WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TODAY. DRY LIGHTNING IS STILL A THREAT...HOWEVER
COVERAGE LOOKS SCATTERED AT BEST.

FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN WARM AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-29      110:1891     76:2011     78:2013     49:1963
KFAT 06-30      112:1891     68:1982     79:2013     53:1970
KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975

KBFL 06-29      112:1901     78:1991     79:2013     47:1907
KBFL 06-30      111:1950     78:1997     82:2009     44:1907
KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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