Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 182131
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
231 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be around ten
degrees above normal for this time of year.

2. On Tuesday afternoon there is as much as 46 to 56 percent
probabilities for high temperatures in Fresno, Hanford and
Lemoore reaching 80 degrees for the first time in the calendar
year.


3. A downward temperature trend is expected beginning Wednesday.


4. The next storm system will impact Central California by this
weekend, resulting in periods of precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Central California remains in an easterly flow between the low
pressure area spinning cyclonically near the CA/AZ border and
the high pressure area to our north. In this pattern, we are
experiencing generally mild conditions, with afternoon highs
running several degrees above normal. The cyclonic flow around
the low pressure center will continue to create around 10-15
percent probabilities for some convective activity this
afternoon and evening over the Kern County mountain and desert
areas and expanding farther north to include the Sierra through
Fresno County on Tuesday.

Here are the latest probabilities of maximum temperatures of 80
degrees or higher for select locations in the San Joaquin
Valley on Tuesday, March 19th, 2024:

Fresno - 56%
Lemoore - 46%
Hanford - 46%
Delano - 36%
Visalia - 31%
Madera - 26%
Bakersfield - 21%
Merced - 11%
Reedley - 11%
Porterville - 16%

By Wednesday, a developing Northeast Pacific low pressure
complex will begin to break up the current blocking pattern and
the persistent low will lift out while the upper ridge migrates
eastward from California. We will see a slight downward trend in
temperatures Wednesday through Thursday, with little change on
Friday ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The
arrival of the storm system will mark the beginning of a more
progressive and unsettled pattern for us. High temperatures
will drop to around normal by Saturday and as much as 4 to 8
degrees below normal for the start of next week.

The system will bring mainly light to moderate rainfall amounts
through the weekend into the start of next week. San Joaquin
Valley locations will see mostly one tenth of an inch or less
along the west side and south end, and one quarter to one third
of an inch as you go further east toward the foothills where a
total of as much as one to one and a half inches is expected.
Snow levels will start out around 6500 to 7000 feet Late Friday
as the system moves in and lower as low as 4500 to 5000 feet by
Sunday. Total snowfall amounts are currently forecast to be as
much as 1 to 2 feet in the higher elevations around the Yosemite
vicinity, down to around 6 to 12 inches farther south into
Tulare County. Weather Prediction Center indicates a
significant area of the Sierra from Fresno County north with a
40 to 50 percent likelihood of moderate impacts from heavy snow
Saturday.


&&


.AVIATION...
Besides a few spotty showers over the Sierra Nevada and Kern
County mountains and desert at times this evening and again
Tuesday afternoon, VFR conditions will prevail across Central
California for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Weather...JEB
PIO/DSS........................BSO

weather.gov/hanford


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