Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
233 FXUS66 KHNX 171051 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 351 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Maximum temperatures will remain several degrees above climatological normals through the weekend. 2. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and evening then a better chance on Saturday. 3. Gusty westerly winds will develop across the Kern County mountains and desert each afternoon and evening with the strongest gusts expected on Sunday. 4. Maximum temperatures will lower to near climatological normals early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Strong westerly wind gusts to around 45 mph continue along the Mojave Desert Slopes where a Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM this morning. The Mojave ASOS (KMHV) measured a peak wind gust of 51 mph last evening. The SFO-LAS surface pressure gradient is near 9 mb but will weaken through morning allowing the winds to diminish. Maximum temperatures on Thursday topped out at around 7 to 10 degrees above climatological normals. Slight cooling will occur this afternoon and through the weekend with maximum temperatures lowering to near normal by Monday. Here are probabilities for a high temperature of 91 degrees or higher for a few locations in the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. Merced 11%Hanford 41% Madera 16% Visalia 51% Fresno 61% Porterville 41% Reedley 16%Delano 61% Lemoore 46%Bakersfield 61% Hi-res modeling shows sufficient moisture and instability for up to a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and early evening, highest towards the crest. Weak short wave energy moves in on Saturday for an increase in convective potential. Thunderstorms probabilities rise to as much as 40 percent along the Sierra Nevada crest on Saturday afternoon and early evening. Dry conditions return on Sunday then there is a 10 percent chance for thunderstorms near Yosemite NP on Monday. Cluster analysis favors a long wave trough across the west next week. Maximum temperatures are forecast to hover near to slightly above climatological normals throughout the work week. Westerly winds will increase across the Kern County mountains and desert each afternoon and evening with the strongest gusts expected on Sunday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across central California over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 AM PDT this morning for CAZ338. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford