Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 050221
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...BEST GUESS BASED ON SURFACE OBS IS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NOW OVER PENDER COUNTY AND ACCELERATING TO THE
NE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE RE-GENERATED OFFSHORE CAPE FEAR...BUT LAND
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET NIGHT.
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS IT APPEARS THAT THE SEMI-
TROPICAL SURFACE LOW HAS NOW MOVED OVER EASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY.
IT IS ACTUALLY HARD TO PICK OUT THE CENTER ANYMORE...AS ALL
CONVECTION HAS CEASED AND THE LOW IS BECOMING MORE ELONGATED AS IT
MERGES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT OF RAIN HAS
ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYER AIR
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOWS PASSAGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER
CONVECTION. HAVE ALREADY DROPPED POPS FROM THE FORECAST AND WILL
LIKELY CLEAR OUT THE SKIES A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN PRESENTLY
FORECAST.

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO. DO THINK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD
INCLUDES A WAVE OF HEAT AFTER A COUPLE RAIN-COOLED DAYS ALONG THE
COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR ...SO AN ABRUPT UPTICK IN DAYTIME
MAXIMUMS TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OF NE SC AND SE NC. DEEPER INLAND
WHERE RAIN REMAINS SPARSE...MAXIMUMS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND WEDNESDAY WILL AID IN VERY WARM TO HOT MAXIMUMS
WEDNESDAY.

AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN POP
VALUES...AND MORESO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL HELP WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT
THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN
COOLER MAXIMUMS THURSDAY BY 4-8 DEGREES F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE BASICALLY STATIONARY OVER TEXAS WITH
TROUGHING ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. A VERY WEAK OMEGA
PATTERN THAT IS. A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO BRING
THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SLOWLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC GETS A COUPLE OF REINFORCEMENTS
FROM WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. POPS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT AND
DRY WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION
AT 00Z AND ALL ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WAS WELL EAST AND
OFFSHORE. BELIEVE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER LAND IS UNLIKELY. ONCE
THE LAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT FROM ILM EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SCT
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL
WATERS. LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WITH 6 FT AT 41012...WELL DOWN FROM OVER 12 FT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 5 FT AT 41110...DOWN FROM 8 FT. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER SOUTH-EASTERN NC MOVES TO THE NE AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL WATERS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL ZONES AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT PLAN ON
UPGRADING TO A GALE WARNING. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
30 KT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPEARS TO HAVE
MOVED INLAND AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ANYMORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS DROPPING UNDER 20 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND SEAS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND. CURRENT HEADLINES MAY EXTEND
A LITTLE TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE BUT GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN
FORECAST SEAS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT WANT TO TRIM HEADLINE END
TIMES.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...A RECOVERY DAY FOR SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND LIKELY STILL ELEVATED FROM THE WIND FETCH OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE
NEEDED VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DROPPED SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WSW TO SW WINDS...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT
INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR
KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTER OFFSHORE. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS MAY UNFOLD THURSDAY. SEAS THIS PERIOD MAINLY 3-4 FT
WITH AREAS OF 5 FT SEAS INTO LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20
KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
A FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE
10- 15 KNOTS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND AS IS
TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR A SLOW TRANSITION TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS TAKES PLACE. THIS FLOW GETS REINFORCED EARLY
SUNDAY BUT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/III/SHK



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