Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 272323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOVING OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
MAINLY IN THE WAY OF SCT TO BKN STRATOCU AROUND 4 TO 5KFT TO THE
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PCP BUT AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY
ATMOSPHERE. MODELS SHOW PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A QUARTER OF AN
INCH RISING UP NEAR A HALF INCH AS VORT MAX RIDES THROUGH THIS
AFTN AND THEN BACK DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY LATE
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KICK UP AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST IN DEEP COLD AND DRY FLOW ON BACK END OF MID TO UPPER
TROUGH. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR AS COLD AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT NW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CAA
WILL OFFSET FULL SUNSHINE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH THIS
AFTERNOON...BASICALLY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
AFTERNOON.

DEEP DRY AND COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IN
DEEP NW TO N FLOW ON THE BACK END OF UPPER TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. STRONG CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
QUITE A DROP IN TEMPS WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR FREEZING CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND BELOW 30 INLAND BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN
BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE W...IT WILL BRING A COLD
START TO THE PERIOD. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN MINUS
4 AND MINUS 7 DEG C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH ON FRI. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD SQUELCH CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT A SUNNY DAY FROM BEGINNING
TO END. TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR IN PLACE... PERHAPS TOUCHING 50 IN A FEW
SPOTS DOWN AROUND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY SKIRT THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT ANY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE BRIEF AND
LATE IN ARRIVING. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD AT
THE SURFACE AND WINDS WILL BE VIRTUALLY CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT...
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AS COLUMN REMAINS VERY
DRY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. A FEW
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE TRADITIONALLY COLD SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY MODIFY. HIGHS ON SAT
WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP TO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S INLAND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S MORE COMMON AS
YOU PROGRESS TO THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO MODESTLY
RECOVER TO AROUND A HALF AN INCH...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
WITH REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHOW
A BROAD AND SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
SIGNAL FOR A RIDGE MONDAY AS A DEEP AND COLD SHORTWAVE...WHAT IS AN
EXTENSION OF  THE POLAR VORTEX...THE LOWEST HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE ROTATE ACROSS CANADA. THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE REACHES OUR AREA IN A MUCH MODIFIED STATE AFTER DROPPING
VERY SOUTH IN A BLUE NORTHER IN TEXAS. BY TUESDAY WHEN THE NEW
AIRMASS ARRIVES IT WILL ONLY BUMP DOWN TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE
WARMER 70S...COURTESY OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY PREVENTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. NO
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRATOCU IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. NO
FOG CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRI...BRINGING
SUNNY SKIES AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT. COULD BRIEFLY SEE SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OF 15 KT ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 IN OUTER WATERS. WILL EXTEND
THE SCA OUT UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING. POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO KICK UP WINDS WITH
DEEP NW WINDS DEVELOPING. THE STRONG CAA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP A WELL MIXED GUSTY MARINE LAYER. THE OFF SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE BUT EXPECT UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN
OUTER WATERS OF LOCAL MARINE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND FROM W TO NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME DOWN
GRADUALLY ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO WANE A LITTLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT WITH STRONG CAA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
STRONGER WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRI AND BE CENTERED OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON
INTO SAT MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST FRI
MORNING...SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TIL AROUND SUNRISE FRI
WITH SEAS NEAR 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. N WINDS FRI
MORNING WILL BE 15 TO AROUND 20 KT. N WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT FRI
AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN FURTHER FRI NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING SHOULD SETTLE ON SW
SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FT FRI AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT
BEFORE STABILIZING IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY REGARDING WINDS AND SEAS...TEMPERATURES WONT BE TO SHABBY
EITHER. ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF BASICALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT WILL BE 1-3 FEET. THERE MAY BE A DECENT
SEA BREEZE MONDAY AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO THE LOWER 70S
WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A MORE BRISK NORTHEAST
FLOW OF AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET WITH A
SMATTERING OF SIX FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR







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