National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KILM 081459
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
959 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHT COOLER AIR INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...DEL SOL...STARLIGHT...PLENTY SUNSHINE IN
THE CARDS TODAY AS A MASSIVE AND POTENT LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PULLS WELL OFFSHORE...RELEASING ITS COLD AND WET GRIP. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WILL WHISK OVERHEAD BUT NOT OF A MAGNITUDE TO SPOIL MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY BREAKING OUT INTO THE 50S OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND MAXIMUMS IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S TODAY
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE. HENCE FRIENDLY CONDITIONS FOR YARD AND
CLEAN UP WORK AS PREVIOUS STRONG WINDS HAVE LIKELY KNOCKED MANY
DANGLING AND COMPROMISED BRANCHES IN THE TREES FRACTURED AND
WEAKENED FROM THE PREVIOUS ICE STORMS.

TONIGHT A CHANGE IN THE WIND. SURFACE RIDGING FROM SOUTH WILL
BRING WINDS AROUND FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN TEMPERATURE
DROPS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS LEVELING OFF IN THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY.
DAYBREAK SUNDAY COLD POCKETS INLAND LOW 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUN FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SUN NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO. PASSAGE OF FRONT MAY BE MARKED
BY AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD BUT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP ARE LACKING. TEMPS DROP TO NEAR CLIMO SUN NIGHT
BUT BY MON AM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH STARTS EXPANDING NORTH. THE
RESULTING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE WITH TEMPS
ABOVE CLIMO MON AND MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST WILL TRANSLATE EAST
DURING THE WEEK WITH A GULF COAST SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE THE KEY PLAYERS. TUE WILL BE BENIGN WITH FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TUE AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
GULF COAST WAVE SPREADS OVER THE AREA.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR WED INTO THU TIME PERIOD BUT MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
WEAKENING AS THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. WEAK LOW
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA DURING WED WITH 5H TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
MS VALLEY HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED
NIGHT OR EARLY THU. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WEAK CONVECTION WILL BE
SUPPORTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPWARD MOTION MAY BE HINDERED BY
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE REMAINS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.
SO WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AN INCREASED CHC OF
SHOWERS DO NOT THINK THUNDER IS WARRANTED. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT...ENHANCED BY PINCHED GRADIENT AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HOW COLD REMAINS A QUESTION WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING A
WEAKER 5H TROUGH THU/FRI AND THUS LESS COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. NOT OPTING TO MAKE MANY CHANGES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
INHERITED TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH RELIES
HEAVILY ON CLIMO FOR D6 AND D7.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS AT KFLO/KLBT
BR HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR VSBYS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF TEMPO IFR VSBYS WILL BE THROUGH 13Z AT EITHER TERMINAL
BUT GENERALLY REDUCED VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z AS THE
INVERSION BREAKS AND WINDS BECOME W-NW.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ONLY
CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WILL BE THIN CI/CS. WNW WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD GO SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
INLAND SURFACE HEATING.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 3-5 KNOT SPEED DUE
TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LO-LEVEL TO JUSTIFY BR
DEVELOPMENT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KCRE. DUE TO
EXPECTED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL INDICATE MVFR VSBYS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25KT/6FT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO W-SW 10
TO 15 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTH. UNDERLYING 3 TO 4 FOOT 10-12 SECOND PERIOD EAST
WAVES WILL REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH-OUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE
SWAN AND WAVEWATCH-3 NUMBERS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DISRUPTED LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON BY PASSAGE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION AND LITTLE GRADIENT CHANGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT INTO MON. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY MON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH EXPANDS NORTH. SPEEDS MAY EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED.
SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED AS
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND WHICH FEATURE WILL
BECOME DOMINANT BUT EITHER WAY A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KT IS EXPECTED DURING WED...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. PROLONGED AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM
2 TO 4 FT ON TUE TO 3 TO 5 FT WED. A SCEC HEADLINE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR NC WATERS...AT THIS POINT BUT DO NOT THINK
CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT SCA. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN
THE PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE COMBINATION OF PINCHED GRADIENT
AND COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT. OFFSHORE DIRECTION
WILL KNOCK SEAS UNDER 5 FT SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR