Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 301043
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION IS OFF THE COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE OBS SHOW A LARGE
RANGE IN VISIBILITIES. PATCHY FOG AND SCT-V-BKN STRATUS WILL PERSIST
FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE -RA/DZ IS EXITING THE COAST WITH CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF STRATO-CUMULUS WILL PERSIST A WHILE
LONGER...WHILE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE A BETTER BET FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE SKIES ALREADY CLEARED
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO THE LOWER COLUMN RESULTING IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80F MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS AROUND 60 INLAND...TO THE LOWER
60S AT THE COAST. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK WED THROUGH THURS.
AT THE SAME TIME A FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE E-SE AND LIGHTENING UP AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TIME. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LITTLE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS LATER ON WED AND SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE BOTH AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH EARLY
FALL SUNSHINE.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE
REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID-
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS THROUGH THE DAY. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW
AS AN INCH FRI MORNING WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES UP TO 2
INCHES BY AFTN OVER INLAND AREAS AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS PROVIDES A
DECENT FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS INLAND BY AFTN AND REACHING THE COAST
BY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHING FRONT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DOES BECOME
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS REACHING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY DELAY THE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW TO
PRODUCE SOME EXCEPTIONAL FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW
50 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS
IN TEMPS WITH COOL START TO THE MORNINGS SUN AND MON AND TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES FOR AFTN HIGHS WITH BRIGHT
SUNSHINE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO A HALF INCH OR LESS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S SUN AND
MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DENSE FOG IS POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH LBT ON THE
FRINGE. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH 13Z...WITH HOPEFULLY AN IMPROVEMENT WITH SOLAR
INSOLATION TO VFR BY 14Z. FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT A BIT
FARTHER AWAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO SCATTER WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING...COULD SEE SOME CU
FORMATION. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...PROBABLY GOING CALM AFTER 02Z. SOME
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST. SEAS ARE LIKELY 3-5 FT
AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 2 FT NEAR SHORE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED SOUTH...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST...OF THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS ALL WATERS
BY 00Z WED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE BRUNSWICK WATERS WHERE THE
FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE. LIKEWISE...EXPECT SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER FRYING PAN SHOALS WATERS WITH SHORTER PERIOD
SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT IN A RELAXED GRADIENT..STARTING OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
VEERING AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND EVENTUALLY SE BY FRI
MORNING AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH TIME. NEAR SHORE WINDS
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CAUSING A SLIGHT SPIKE IN
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE 3 FT OR
LESS...SUBSIDING A BIT FROM WED TO THURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AN INCREASING
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO
15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRI EVE. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP
FROM AROUND 2 FT EARLY FRI TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. MAY RUN
INTO A FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW REMAINING UP TO 15 KTS INITIALLY
BUT LIGHTENING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
LOCAL WATERS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT EVENING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43








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