Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 131851
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
151 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN
THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850
TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS
DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF
5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND
MARLBORO COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING
A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST

FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH
THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL
REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A
SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR
TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR
MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE
MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH
OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW
APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER
AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED
IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO
BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY
MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT
WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL
ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES
BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY
HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE
TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING
NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS
DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN
SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT
OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND
ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN
ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT
LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT
OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL


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