Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241951
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID
70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA.

MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD
WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO
45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR
LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE
COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS.

COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT
ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND
TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT
THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z
AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO
SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT
BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA
CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY
NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.  SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2
TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL








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