Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 310524
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
124 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
The oppressive heat and humidity will slowly abate early in the
upcoming week. A cool front to our north will drop slowly across
the Carolinas by Wednesday and this will bring a high chance for
thunderstorms early in the new week. Temperatures will finally
return to more normal mid-summer levels after Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 830 PM Saturday...High tide has passed and the Coastal
Flood Advisory for portions of the lower Cape Fear River has been
A north to south band of showers and thunderstorms continues to
move across portions of the forecast area at mid-eve. The leading
edge will be near Elizabethtown, Galivants Ferry and Andrews
between 9 and 10 pm. The back edge has cleared the Florence area
and will clear Marion and Lumberton between 9 and 10 pm. Thereafter,
the convection is expected to slowly wane as it slows with its
approach to the coast. POPs have been adjusted accordingly. The
prospects for even a strong thunderstorm are remote for the
remainder of the night.
Low-level jetting should make for an uncomfortable night and temps
should struggle to drop below 80 across portions of the area with
upper 70s most common. Humidity levels will be high.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Similar pattern through Sunday with
Atlantic ridge in place to the southeast and Piedmont trough to
the west. A deep SW flow of moist air will continue to feed into
the Carolinas. Looks like convection will once again be focused
along sea breeze in the afternoon and along trough inland on
Sunday with mainly scattered coverage.
On Monday, The mid to upper trough to the northwest will push a cold
front/trough south and east into the Carolinas. Local area will
lose cap as ridge slips farther east and minor shortwaves ride
across the base of the mid to upper trough. The increased instability
along with upper level support will produce more widespread
convection Mon aftn. The strong westerly push will steer the
storms into the area but also expect a little more organized
convection for Monday.
The H5 heights and 850 temps look like they will decrease
slightly Sun and Mon and the development of clouds and convection
should all combine to limit temps increasing greater than 95 on
Sunday and much past 90 most places on Monday. Therefore do not
expect heat advisory thresholds to be met.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...Pattern changes occur Tuesday as a trough
digs along the east coast driving a cold front into the Carolinas.
This front will be accompanied by good chances for showers and
tstms Tue/Wed as it crawls southward before dissipating on
Thursday. This dissipating is cause by the parent trough pushing
off to the east, allowing for mid-level ridge to re-blossom into
the Mid-Atlantic. The ECM/CMC stall this front longer with better
convective chances as the trough is slower to eject to the east,
but the GFS has ensemble support and its solution is more
represented by WPC and the inherited grids, so will continue to
hedge towards a warmer/drier solution late in the week and into
the weekend. Convective chances will drop back to seasonable or
slightly below, with temps right around climo Fri/Sat, after a
period of around or slightly below normal temps with higher POP
the first half of the extended.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 06Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period with a
couple of caveats. First, with inland areas receiving decent
rainfall, some MVFR BR is possible for a couple of hours later
this morning. Second, guidance is showing a quick ramp up of sea
breeze convection by late morning into early afternoon. I used
VCTS to address. Just like today, inland will take precedence
later in the afternoon and into the evening and applied VCTS here
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
convection each day may result in localized MVFR/IFR conditions.
Each morning may also observe brief MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low
ceilings. Otherwise, expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 PM Saturday...Low-level jetting should help to keep
wind speeds elevated for at least part of the late night. Expect
SW winds to be sustained at up to 15 to 20 kt. Seas will be 2 to 4
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Similar pattern will continue with
Bermuda High and Piedmont trough dominating the weather and
maintaining a SW flow over the waters. By Monday a cold front will
drop into the Carolinas but will make slow progress toward the
local waters but should see a veering of wind, becoming more
westerly by Monday night into early Tues. A tightened gradient Mon
night will produce an increase in SW winds up to 15 to 20 kts and
push seas up to 4 to 5 ft in outer waters. Otherwise seas will
remain in the 2 to 4 ft range through the period. You can also
expect a better chc of thunderstorms over the waters, especially
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...A cold front will cross the waters during
Tuesday turning winds slowly from SW at 10-15 kts, to NW at 5-10
kts Tuesday night. This front will dissipate on Wednesday leaving
a diffuse pressure gradient as high pressure re-expands slowly
from the Atlantic. This will bring mostly East to SE winds
Wed/Thu, at speeds around 10 kts. Seas will be highest on Tuesday,
3-4 ft, as the SW winds and residual SE swell drive an amplified
spectrum. Behind the cold front, as the winds ease and become
variable, the wind wave will shift to the E/NE on top of the
residual SE swell, but seas fall to around 2 ft the latter half of
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening