Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 022349
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN SOME
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ROBESON
AND MARLBORO COUNTIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTIES. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING AND SHOULD BE ALL BUT DISSIPATED BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM GIVEN
THE PRIMARY DRIVER HAS BEEN STRONG HEATING. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE AWAY FROM THE COAST INTO LATE EVE WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF MAINLY DARLINGTON COUNTY EARLY.
OTHERWISE...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

IT WAS A HOT DAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE FLO HIT 99 DEGREES...
TYING THE RECORD HIGH. HOWEVER...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT SUNSET.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE THICKEST THIS EVE BUT SHOULD VERY
SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST NOCTURNAL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE
FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE
LEAST INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF FOG AND STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM
INCLUDING IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH 80 DEGREES OR
SO ON THE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
EXTENT OF COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE DUE
TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING.
THE FORCING IS FROM A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP
CLOSE TO THE AREA BUT LIKE MOST OF THE FRONTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT WILL DISSIPATE ALMOST WITHIN SITE OF OUR CWA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES
FOR THURSDAY. GUIDANCE ISN`T REALLY SHOWING MUCH FOR THURSDAY BUT
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
VORTICITY...THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO TREND DOWN VALUES WHILE
MAINTAINING SOME MENTION. THE BEAT GOES ON FOR TEMPERATURES WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND STEAMY 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY BRINGS A CONTINUATION OF VAST MID
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGHINESS FROM CENTRAL
AL TO GA COAST MAY POOL SOME MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCE OVER SRN ZONES. OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER TO FIRE CONVECTION...AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE WASHED OUT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING.
THIS MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT WHILE RAIN CHANCES GO ON THE
RISE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL VERY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WHILE KEEPING THE
WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED...MOST MOS POPS ALREADY UP INTO THE 50S
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR INLAND LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RESTRICTIONS AS A
RESULT...AND THE TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THEM TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
INLAND...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND AND
AROUND 5 KTS ALONG THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO AOB 15 KTS.
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH
MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...A MODEST NOCTURNAL JET WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUSTAINED AT NEAR 15 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY 3 FT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS REMAIN BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
COURTESY OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. SPEEDS VARY FROM
JUST UNDER TEN KNOTS...MOSTLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO 10-15 IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN STABLE IN A
2-3 FOOT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK ON FRIDAY. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE
LACKING AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK TROUGH WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN ON
SUNDAY EVEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM BEING CAPPED AT 10KT TO THE
10 TO 15KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. IN THIS COAST-PARALLEL FLOW THERE
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN OVERALL WAVE HEIGHT. SUNDAY
LOOKS A LOT LIKE SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME VEERING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL




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