Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 201415
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT BETWEEN
1.75 AND 1.85 INCHES REMAINS LOADED IN THE COLUMN CURRENTLY AS
REVEALED IN 12Z RAOBS DATA FROM MHX/CHS. THE POTENT UPPER SWIRL
YESTERDAY THAT MOVED OFFSHORE LAST NIGHT...PUSHED A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. NO APPRECIABLE AIR
MASS CHANGE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT THAT DEWPOINTS REMAIN
HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WHILE TAPERING INLAND AND A LIGHT W-NW
WIND ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

SIMILAR TO MON/TUE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ENSURE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON IN A MOIST COLUMN. OF
SOME CONCERN IS THAT PROJECTED STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR INTO A
ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW APPEARS POISED
TO KEEP THIS MARINE BOUNDARY FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE
UPPER WINDS GUIDE ACTIVITY TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL INTERIOR
LATER TODAY. VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IMPINGING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRESENTLY...WHICH TIMING-WISE IS
SET TO ENTER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEAT
BUILD-UP...LIKELY SPARKING STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ACROSS NC AND 101-104 OVER
OUR SC INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW...SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AFTER 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF
IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY DICTATE ONLY A
VCSH...WILL SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AROUND NOON OR SO. LIGHT
NORTHWEST GRADIENT THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A WEAK LOW OFF
THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
RESULTANT BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO NORTH OF
THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 10
KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO
6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 7+
SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...BACON
LONG TERM...BACON
AVIATION...DAVE






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