Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 240707
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL APPROACH
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND AT
TIMES ONLY VERY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE CLOUD
COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY... ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED
FORCING WITH THIS RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE UPPER LEVELS AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL
MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE
SAME CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S
WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY FOG
FORMATION. EXPECT MORE CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...
N-NW AOB 5 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING VRBL THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM
AFTER 00Z SAT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP
SEAS ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 2 TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY
DUE TO SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/RJD






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