Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 221908
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER
THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF
SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER
OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN
OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ




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