Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 041527
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1127 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS DRIER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. A
COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS.
DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST BUT MAY SLOW AS SEA BREEZE HOLDS IT UP WITH ON SHORE FLOW
MAINLY OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY TSTMS BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ONE AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY
OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH THIS AFTN. DEWPOINT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE
MID 50S WEST OF I95 AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM THE W-SW
WHILE COASTAL SITES SHOW 60S STILL. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS MORNING HAS MAINLY MOVED OFF SHORE LEAVING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING NE CLOSE TO THE COAST.

WATER VAP IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CENTER REACHING THE
CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK. THIS DEEP COLD CORE CUT OFF LOW WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND CHC OF SHOWERS AS IT
PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA BY DAYBREAK EVEN THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF
DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS.
THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SHALLOW WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG COOLING
ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. BREAKING CLOUDS AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL AID IN SFC HEATING BY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING
MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS INTO DAYBREAK IN WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING SET-UP AS COLD-CORE UPPER LOW
DIPS OVER THE AREA IN PEAK HEATING THURSDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES UNFOLDING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY
MIXED WITH SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE CHILLINESS ALOFT. SUNSHINE WILL BE
HAD BETWEEN SHOWERS AND OFTEN CALLED RAINBOW WEATHER WHEN THE SUN
ANGLE FALLS BELOW 40 DEGREES OFF THE HORIZON. A COOL PERIOD AS WELL
WITH LOWS DEEP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S IN SPOTS EARLY
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY AS THE
COLD POOL LIFTS N AND DRYING SETS IT FROM THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND AND A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA
BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE
WEST...ANTICIPATE FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL AND FOR A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS TO
WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OR
REMAIN JUST NORTH AS IT STALLS REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO OVER ONE
INCH WITH SOME AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...THOUGH MID LEVELS
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS RIDGING CONTINUES. EVEN THOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WILL KEEP PERIOD DRY FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL WRAP UP THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING THROUGH ILM AT THIS
TIME...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS
SOME BRIEF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
EXIT THE COAST BY 13Z...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO MORE WEST NORTHWEST.
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND MAX
HEATING. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU/FRI.
VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEN SHIFTING TO W-WNW LATE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO SEA. NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED BUT NOT
FAR AWAY FROM CAUTION CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
AND 5 FT SEAS OUTER PORTION. ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL POSE A SLIGHT TREAT OF 40 KT WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD
TO SEA LIGHTNING. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF MODERATELY STRONG W-NW OFFSHORE
WINDS THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER SEAS INSHORE COMPARED TO OFFSHORE. GUSTS
TO 25 KT MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING PORTIONS OF
THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 35 KT THU AND FRI TAPERING OFF FRIDAY
NIGHT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER
OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE WATERS...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 FT ON SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...REK/RJD



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