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000
FXUS62 KILM 201916
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 200
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY
FOR THE CAROLINAS. THIS VERTICALLY-STACKED COLD-CORE LOW HAS BROUGHT
CHILLY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON...TYPICAL OF AN EARLY FEBRUARY DAY. MODIFICATION OF
THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE GULF STREAM IS CREATING
ENOUGH VERTICAL TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS TO FUEL QUITE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE LOW`S CENTER. FORTUNATELY
THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL POSE NO THREAT TO LAND.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EVENTUALLY SQUEEZING THE LOW FARTHER
OFFSHORE. ATLANTIC MOISTURE SWIRLING BACK ONSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOW
CLOUDS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AT THE COAST BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS
FASTER THAN THE NAM SHOWING FALLING RH WITHIN THE 950-850 MB
LAYER...BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEST
OF INTERSTATE 95 AFTER 2 AM EDT/06Z.

LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND REMAINS AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS ON. ALONG THE
COAST WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS UPPER 40S WILL PROBABLY DO IT FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. FARTHER
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY DIMINISH TO 10 MPH LATE AND SKIES WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR...LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 43-46
RANGE...COOLEST WEST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST DRIFT MON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPS DRY THINGS OUT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY END BEFORE THE START OF
THE PERIOD SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED DRY FORECAST FOR MON
AND MON NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
MON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/NORTHEAST
FLOW TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND BY MIDDAY THINK MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE NC COAST WILL SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE MON AND MON NIGHT
BUT BY TUE MORNING THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE AND HEIGHTS START
FALLING AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF
DEEP SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ON TUE.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
RISE IN SURFACE BASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO CROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IN PART DUE TO
DEEPEST MOISTURE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK INSTABILITY AND PALTRY
CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL JETTING.

TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW CLIMO MON THEN APPROACH CLIMO MON
NIGHT. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT DESPITE
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF COLD ADVECTION AS PERIOD
ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM LEADS TO A GOOD CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BEYOND THAT
TIME FRAME AS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

TO START OFF THE LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST
WITH GRADUAL WARMING. EXPECTING VERY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES. FOR FRIDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS A
BROAD AND RELATIVELY FLAT H/5 TROUGH DROPS OVER EASTERN CONUS. AS
UPPER SUPPORT AND THERMAL CONTRAST ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT WHEN A REAL CLEAR-CUT FROPA WILL
OCCUR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. LACKING ANY CONVINCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ANY MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS
LIKE THAT RECENTLY EXPERIENCED ARE LIKELY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE
SPOTTY DIURNAL-TYPE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND BANDS OF RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH
00Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS NOW ARE
MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KILM AND MVFR AT KCRE. VFR IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE.
A BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING SWWD FROM
THE ILM VCNTY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING
INLAND.

MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS AROUND 1K. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW BUT CIGS 800-900 AND VSBYS
1-3 SM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
N-NE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. TEMPO
MVFR CIGS/-RA COULD OCCUR AT KFLO/KLBT BUT THE LOWER CIGS APPEAR TO
BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND 00Z CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
VFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT AND MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1K. CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR AT ALL TERMINALS 13-15Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 200
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NC
WATERS WHERE RECENT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED TO 43 KNOTS AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...33 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...AND 30
KNOTS AT BALD HEAD ISLAND. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED THROUGH 11 PM...AT
WHICH POINT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF THE PAST 24+ HOURS HAVE BUILT SEAS TO
AS HIGH AS 11 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 6 FEET AT THE
NEARSHORE CAPE FEAR HARBOR BUOY. NEARLY STEADY-STATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEA
HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE MON THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN.
CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA BUT BY
MIDDAY ANY HEADLINES SHOULD BE ENDING. NORTHERLY FLOW DROPS UNDER 10
KT BY MON NIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS TUE WITH
LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING THEN INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 20 KT JUST BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND
SURFACE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. SEAS
FLIRTING WITH 6 FT NEAR 20 NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SUBSIDE DURING MON...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT MON AFTERNOON AND 2 TO 3
FT MON NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER TUE BUMPS SEAS BACK TO
3 TO 5 FT BUT DURATION AND STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DROP FROM A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 2 FT OR
LESS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY
TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.

NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
     108.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...MRR/TRA