Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 262226
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING SHARP
COOLING TO THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 626 PM THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED FOR THE
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...PRIMARILY FINE
TUNING OF SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. BALMY WARM-SECTOR
FLOW PREVAILS WITH MODERATE SSW SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SE NC AND NE
SC. DRY MID-LEVEL CAP IS PRESENTLY MOISTENING AND THIS WILL TREND
THROUGH EVENING WHILE UPPER WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. LOW POPS THROUGH EVENING RETAINED WITH A SHARPER
RAMPING OF PCPN PROBS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PREVIOUS DSCN FOLLOWS.

LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN IS IN THE MIDST OF EVOLVING BACK TO THE
WINTER TIME UPPER PATTERN THE FA HAS EXPERIENCED THRUOUT THE
2014-2015 WINTER. TO GET TO THAT POINT...AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALOFT IS TAKING SHAPE WITH A DEEP FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF BEING
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH A LARGE
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE ILM CWA
COME FRIDAY DAYBREAK. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING TO THE SE TONIGHT... REACHING THE NW DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA BY DAYBREAK FRI. A FAST MOVING MID-LEVEL S/W TROF IS PROGGED
TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON...PICKING UP
SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND THEN RACE TO THE NE ACROSS THE
ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS. COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
DYNAMICS...AND MOISTURE ALREADY RESIDING ACROSS THE FA...PCPN
SHOULD BOTH DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE ILM CWA RESULTING WITH
INCREASING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE THIS EVENING TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL
BY DAYTIME FRI MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LATE TONIGHT INDICATE
SOME JUICE...IE. CAPE...WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AND THUS OPTED TO
INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY AFTER 4 AM FRI. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL
REMAIN BALMY...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF MIDDAY AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EVENING.  A VORT SWINGING
THROUGH AT H5 MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN AS THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE NIGHT LAGS THE MOISTURE.  SHOULD THE MOISTURE HOLD ON
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OR SHOULD THE COLD AIR ARRIVE SOONER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  EVEN IF IT DOES SNOW...THE WARM GROUND SHOULD
MELT IT VERY QUICKLY.  MAXIMUMS FRIDAY OF 60 TO 65 WILL OCCUR IN THE
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT YIELDING A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO
MID 50S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S BUT THE EXACT NUMBERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WIND
WE HAVE OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD THE WIND REMAIN UP...FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED.  SHOULD THE WIND FALL OUT MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.  A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECAST
UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUN NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK
COLD FRONT...BUT ALOFT FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A NARROW RIBBON OF INCREASED MOISTURE AS IT
PASSES LATE MON BUT THE FRONT LACKS DYNAMICS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED CONVERGENCE SHOWER OR TWO BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SEEMS UNLIKELY. PLAN TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC
POP MON/MON NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP NUMBERS CAPPED AT 20.

FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE AND WED WITH MODIFYING HIGH
BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE
REGION MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND VOID OF PRECIP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. FRONT EVENTUALLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT INTO
THU WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH.
HAVE ADDED SILENT POP FOR LATE WED NIGHT AND ON THU GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARM SECTOR CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO SUN THROUGH TUE WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO
WED AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PRECIPITATION HAS PULLED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THINGS GET A BIT UNCERTAIN AFTER THIS EVENING.
THE NAM INTRODUCES SEA FOG BUT THE GFS DOES NOT.
REGARDLESS...THINGS WILL GO DOWNHILL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT
POTENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF. WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATM
COLUMN...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. HAVE INCLUDED
THUNDER ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING LATE
TONIGHT INTO DAYTIME FRI MORNING.

LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRI MORNING HOURS.
LOOKING AT FROPA AT THE INLAND TERMINALS 15-16Z...17-18Z FOR THE
COASTAL TERMS. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 PM THURSDAY...THE SE-S WINDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
HAVE ALREADY EXCITED THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO A 3 TO 6 FT
RANGE...UP TO 7 FT OFF CAPE FEAR. THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SSW-SW
WINDS IN THE CURRENT 10-15 KT RANGE...WILL RAMP BACK UP TO A SOLID
15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING OF THE
SFC PG WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TEMPORARY
SUBSIDING TREND WITH SEAS...BUT BUILDING BACK UP TO A 5 TO 7 FT
NC WATERS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SEAS...WITH NO GROUND
SWELL TO SPEAK OF. THEREFORE...AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RUN 5 TO 6
SECONDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP BACK UP
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG...EITHER FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS OR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS FROM THE PREFRONTAL FLOW. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR SOME TIME AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM 4 TO 6 FT FRIDAY MORNING TO 2 TO 3
FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS SUN WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. APPROACH OF COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MON/MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BUMP IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY. GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND
PINCHED GRADIENT FOLLOWING FROPA WILL KEEP OFFSHORE FLOW 15 KT OR
LESS LATE MON NIGHT AND UNDER 10 KT ON TUE. CURRENTLY APPEARS ONLY
POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES WOULD BE DURING BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON BUT LIMITED DURATION OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IS
LIKELY TO KEEP SEAS UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL/MRR



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