071
FXUS62 KILM 150604
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
204 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will
dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Region remains under the influence of broad, but weak high pressure
at the surface. The pattern aloft is even weaker than the surface
pattern. There is a hint of a ridge extending from the LA/TX coast
northeast into western NC while a poorly defined 5h low moves west
across the FL Peninsula. The 5h trough associated with the weak low
is inverted with the convergence/subsidence north of the low. This
pattern would tend to suggest afternoon convection will be limited
given the presence of mid-level dry air/subsidence across the
eastern Carolinas. Still expect to see some storms develop in the
afternoon given SBCAPE AOA 2500 J/kg, precipitable water over 2",
and the presence of the sea breeze and Piedmont trough. However,
aforementioned mid-level dry leads to MLCAPE struggling to hit 2000
J/kg. The last few days the MLCAPE seems to be more of a predictor
of storm activity than SBCAPE and this suggests overall less
convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Any storms will be
diurnal in nature with convection weakening and dissipating by mid
to late evening. Fog chances tonight will be much lower with
stronger boundary layer winds in place across the forecast area.
Daytime temperatures near normal with varying amounts of both high
and low cloud, limiting heating. Lows will run several degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda High extending westward over the region with ridging
aloft. Overall, a typical summertime pattern with moist
southerly return flow creating hot and humid weather with
afternoon convection mainly focused along the sea breeze
boundary and Piedmont trough inland. The ridge strengthens a
bit on Thurs which should help to limit aftn convection a bit,
but again, expect main focus along sea breeze and farther inland
along Piedmont trough. Also may see a few showers work there
way on shower overnight into early morning hours. Highs around
90 degrees most areas with heat indices maxing out close to 100
degrees. With ridge strengthening and height rises, expect temps
up a few degrees starting Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridge will be building over the Southeast with increasing warmth
heading into the weekend. Temps should reach between 90 and 95
each aftn with increasing chc of Heat Advisory conditions as
heat indices reach around 105 or so. Expect more limited
aftn convection Fri into the weekend with main focus along sea
breeze and inland along Piedmont trough. Models showing some
weak perturbations riding over the top of the ridge, but mainly
staying north and west of our forecast area. By Sun/Mon, ridge
weakens to the south and best shortwave pushes a cold
front/trough eastward producing possibly more widespread
convection into early next week. Temps should drop a few degrees
into early next week, but still expect hot and humid summertime
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moderate confidence in mix of VFR/MVFR overnight with potential for
MVFR stratus along the coast. Surge of moisture around 2k ft
currently spreading over the coast has already led to BKN 2k ft at
CRE/MYR. This will expand north and west as the night progresses.
Lack of strong boundary layer winds inland will keep IFR fog a
threat for FLO/LBT, but should be short lived, an hour at most
around 12Z. VFR returns 13-14Z Tue lasting into the afternoon before
convection may lead to brief period of MVFR/IFR. Sea breeze and
Piedmont trough are both likely to be active, but increased mid-
level dry air may limit storm coverage and the duration of any one
storm.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening showers/storms and early morning
fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...While the Bermuda High is the main feature
today there is a weak surface low/trough moving across the FL
Peninsula. This feature will lead to winds with more of a
southerly direction than the typical southwest around the
Bermuda High. Gradient remains weak, so not expecting speeds
much above 10-15 kt. Seas will run 2-3 ft, a mix of a swell and
a wind wave, both from the southeast.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Bermuda High has hold on area with southerly return flow
reaching up to a solid 15 kts at times Wed and Thurs. This will
push seas up to 3 to 4 ft. By the weekend, S-SW winds will
continue but gradient weakens a bit with winds dropping 5
degrees or so an seas responding and lowering to 2 to 3 ft.
Longer period swells may increase a bit Thurs night into Fri.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III/31
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/RGZ