Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241930
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warmup gets underway tomorrow as high pressure spreads across
a good portion of the Atlantic. Low pressure will develop east of
the Bahamas late in the week. It is too soon to tell where this
feature will end up bringing wet weather but it may be locally.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...A return to quiet weather as high pressure
takes residence over the southeast. only a few clusters of cu
across the area but otherwise sunshine was plentiful this
afternoon. Temps soared to around 80 under bright May sunshine.
With pcp water down around .8 inches, dewpoint temps in the 50sand
a dry downslope westerly flow aloft, expect dry weather through
tonight. Ideal radiational cooling will occur tonight as winds
drop off after sunset and skies remain mainly clear. This will
result in low temps within a few degrees of 60 most places.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Mid to upper ridge will build up the
southeast coast with increasing heights and plenty of warm May
sunshine to create temps up above normal. Expect temps to reach
well into the 80s to around 90 in spots. Plenty of dry air and
subsidence will keep shwrs/tstms out of the forecast for the most
part, but will not rule out a few aftn cu. Models continue to show
a minor shortwave reaching into the Carolinas on Thurs. This may
support a few thunderstorms...mainly west of the area. Included a
slight chc around I-95 corridor. The center of high will
basically remain off the coast shifting east through the week and
therefore expect a southerly return flow around the high helping
to bring slightly higher dewpoint air into the region. this will
help to moderate overnight lows a bit, keeping temps in the 60s.
Resumption of SW return flow will limit overnight cooling with low
and middle 60s at daybreaks.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 3 PM Tuesday... Model agreement regarding the area of
disturbed weather just east of the Bahamas is getting hard to
ignore. The agreement is related to the fact that they all develop
low pressure out of this mass of convection that is likely at least
partly warm core. Where the agreement trails off is with respect to
the path and timing of said low. This will have large local forecast
ramifications as models like the GFS that decidedly bring it into
the SC coast would imply a fairly wet weekend maybe lasting into
early next week as the system meanders. Other solutions that keep
the meandering motion offshore through the period could keep us in
the subsiding and drier area west of the low/trough. Should we
remain outside of the effects of the system then with a building
upper ridge off the coast we may not have very strong forcing for
precipitation.  But since even since the latest 12Z ECMWF brings
associated moisture ashore by Saturday will keep the forecast as-is
showing a rise in POPs Saturday as well as tempered afternoon highs.
When and where this features comes ashore may be in for a long wet
period as it will be quite slow to move stuck under the
aforementioned ridge aloft.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...Surface high pressure will build across the area
through Wednesday. May see a few convective clouds this afternoon
but that should be the extent. VFR conditions through the period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Tranquil marine conditions will continue
with southerly return flow 10 to 15 kts. Any gustier winds due to
sea breeze this afternoon will drop below 10 kts out of the SW for
the most part overnight as high pressure takes residence over the
waters off the southeast coast. Seas will remain less than 3 ft.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Southerly return flow will continue
around high pressure center to the east of the local waters.
gradient remains weak with winds generally less than 15 kts but
expect a spike in winds and a bit of chop each afternoon as sea
breeze kicks in producing some gustier winds for a few hours. seas
will remain below 3 ft.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 3 PM Tuesday...   Some vexing uncertainty regarding a possible
area of low pressure that is forecast to develop from the area of
current disturbed weather east of the Bahamas. Winds will stay
onshore through the long term. The possible effects, if any from the
low will be possibly to veer them and/or increase wind and seas.
Have not changed the current forecast which shows a little of all
(veering, increased wind speeds, building seas).

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...mbb
AVIATION...SHK


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