Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 251849
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
249 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, bringing
uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening. The chances increase a little this weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Expect rain-free conditions through the period
as even the well defined sea breeze has failed to yield any
convection. In the current warm and humid airmass nighttime lows
will be about a category above climatology.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Upper level ridging not only stays centered
just off the coast through the period but it strengthens. This will
bolster the heat being pumped into the area and both days will
feature a return of area-wide Heat Advisory. Have already gone ahead
and raised for Tuesday after collab with neighboring WFOs. Rainfall
chances will be minimal both days. Tuesday the piedmont trough
appears to have a better chance than the sea breeze. Slight POPS are
warranted area-wide on Wednesday as a weak disturbance rolls by but
it seems quite likely that the suppressing effects of the ridge
should win out.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM Monday...The mid level pattern will be slowly
transitioning from the massive ridge across the south to more of
a weak trough across the Mississippi valley early in the period.
The trough pushes east through the weekend but dampens. The
associated cold front remains well to the north or west of the
area. Precipitable waters will increase however thus leading to
increasing pops, mainly for the weekend.
Nothing on the synoptic scale to make a dent in temperature trends
as 850mb readings are a degree or two either side of 20 degrees C.
More coverage of showers and thunderstorms may provide temporary
relief during the weekend.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period.
High pressure overhead is producing SW winds across the terminals
this aftn. Wind speeds will remain light, 5-10 kts, except at the
coastal terminals for a few hours this aftn/eve as the sea breeze
backs winds to the south along with an increase in speed. Diurnal CU
is likely through nightfall, and may at times produce short duration
VFR cigs, but showers/tstms will be capped. Cannot rule out a shower
near the coastal terminals this aftn, but prefer to handle with a
tempo if necessary as activity will be very isolated at worst.
Any clouds will erode overnight leaving SKC with light SW winds.
More of the same VFR conditions expected Tuesday with diurnal CU and
SW winds except within the aftn sea breeze. Shower chances will be
slightly higher on Tuesday but again have left out any mention of
even VCSH attm due to expected isolated nature.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection
through Saturday may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...South to southwesterly winds are capped at 10
kt all the way out to 41013 as are just 2 ft seas. Peak period is
at around 8 seconds with a secondary max showing up as a 4 second
chop.These conditions are not expected to change overnight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Conditions change slightly heading from the near
term into the short term. We will see a return of normal wind and
waves as piedmont troughiness tightens the gradient along the
western fringe of the Bermuda high. So rather than seeing such light
winds and seas as today we expect SW 10-15 to return with the
occasional gust to 20kt. This should allow 3 ft seas to return to
the forecast, mainly away from the coastline in the largely coast-
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...The marine community can expect south to
southwest winds through the period. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots
with the possibility of a diurnal increase with low level jetting.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.
SC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024-
NC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ087-096-099-