Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 071747 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 140 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A DAILY RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO MAKE SO I`LL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. JUDGING BY SATELLITE IMAGERY IT MAY BE ANOTHER DAY WITH FAIRLY MINIMAL CONVECTION AS CUMULUS CLOUDS APPEAR SLOW TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER ALSO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THOUGH STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE HIGH PWAT VALUES STILL MEAN THEY COULD PUT DOWN SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS. FAIRLY TYPICAL THOUGH FOR JULY. AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SOME PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS WERE AROUND...BUT OTHERWISE IT WAS MAINLY SUNNY. THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY...NEAR OR GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. FORCING WILL HOWEVER BE WEAK WITH TWO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES HELPING TO FOCUS MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE SEABREEZE. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT...AND WITH THE WARMER LAYER AROUND 12 KFT... WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED AT MOST. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE ONLY MODEST INLAND PENETRATION...MORESO OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...GIVEN THE PREVAILING FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT WILL BE SW. THE BEACHES AND ADJACENT ENVIRONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INLAND...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVE AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. OVERNIGHT... THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED BALMY ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BRIEFLY IMPINGE ONTO PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AWAY FROM ANY BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE WARMEST INLAND SPOTS MAY REACH THE MID 90S. MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH READINGS AT MANY OF OUR BEACHES STYMIED ONCE THEY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST MANY NIGHTS...LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES AT THE SURFACE. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME CU AND LOCALIZED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY HELP TO VEER WINDS AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AS IT PUSHES TROUGH EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO THURS. WILL LEAVE LOWER END POPS IN FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL REACH BETWEEN 90 AND 95 MOST PLACES WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH JUST ABOVE 100 EACH AFTN BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP RIDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS BUT THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE INCREASED NW FLOW MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL EXPECT AN UPTICK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH AND THE NW STEERING FLOW TO DRIVE ANY SHWRS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM ALONG WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS INTO AREA AND TOWARD THE COAST. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AND A BROADER LONGER WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEP A DEEPER NW FLOW OVER THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH LEAVING A SFC TROUGH UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ENHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MON. THIS WILL HELP KEEP WARM TEMPS OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW HEAT INDICES WILL BREAK 100 BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES UP THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 90S MOST DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH A THERMAL/PIEDMONT TROUGH AND A SEA BREEZE RESULTANT THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND AROUND NOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST NEAT THE COAST. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING...WITH A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...JUST 3 FT ALL THE WAY OUT TO 41013 AND ALTHOUGH WIND WILL INCREASE BY A FEW KTS TODAY WITH MIXING DID TWEAK SEAS DOWNWARD A TAD. MOST OF THIS TRIMMING LIKELY OUTSIDE OF OF THE 20 NM CUTOFF SO LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE ACTUAL CWF TEXT PRODUCT. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS. THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE ONLY MODEST GAINS INLAND WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS WELL INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW SSW TO SW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AND THEN ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. HIGHEST WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE 3 TO 4 FT. AN 8 TO 10 SECOND SE GROUND SWELL WILL PERSIST. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AS BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURES DRIVING THE WINDS. EXPECT SPIKE IN WINDS EACH AFTN DUE TO SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT BUT WILL BE CHOPPIER EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. A LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL MIX WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD SW WIND WAVES. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AS RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...A DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO LIGHTEN AND COUNTERACT THE SW FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...PRODUCING WEAKER MORE WESTERLY BUT MORE VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD LOWER SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND WITH A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SECONDS SE SWELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL

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