Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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383 FXUS62 KILM 251849 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 249 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, bringing uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. The chances increase a little this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM Monday...Expect rain-free conditions through the period as even the well defined sea breeze has failed to yield any convection. In the current warm and humid airmass nighttime lows will be about a category above climatology. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Upper level ridging not only stays centered just off the coast through the period but it strengthens. This will bolster the heat being pumped into the area and both days will feature a return of area-wide Heat Advisory. Have already gone ahead and raised for Tuesday after collab with neighboring WFOs. Rainfall chances will be minimal both days. Tuesday the piedmont trough appears to have a better chance than the sea breeze. Slight POPS are warranted area-wide on Wednesday as a weak disturbance rolls by but it seems quite likely that the suppressing effects of the ridge should win out. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM Monday...The mid level pattern will be slowly transitioning from the massive ridge across the south to more of a weak trough across the Mississippi valley early in the period. The trough pushes east through the weekend but dampens. The associated cold front remains well to the north or west of the area. Precipitable waters will increase however thus leading to increasing pops, mainly for the weekend. Nothing on the synoptic scale to make a dent in temperature trends as 850mb readings are a degree or two either side of 20 degrees C. More coverage of showers and thunderstorms may provide temporary relief during the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period. High pressure overhead is producing SW winds across the terminals this aftn. Wind speeds will remain light, 5-10 kts, except at the coastal terminals for a few hours this aftn/eve as the sea breeze backs winds to the south along with an increase in speed. Diurnal CU is likely through nightfall, and may at times produce short duration VFR cigs, but showers/tstms will be capped. Cannot rule out a shower near the coastal terminals this aftn, but prefer to handle with a tempo if necessary as activity will be very isolated at worst. Any clouds will erode overnight leaving SKC with light SW winds. More of the same VFR conditions expected Tuesday with diurnal CU and SW winds except within the aftn sea breeze. Shower chances will be slightly higher on Tuesday but again have left out any mention of even VCSH attm due to expected isolated nature. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection through Saturday may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...South to southwesterly winds are capped at 10 kt all the way out to 41013 as are just 2 ft seas. Peak period is at around 8 seconds with a secondary max showing up as a 4 second chop.These conditions are not expected to change overnight. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Conditions change slightly heading from the near term into the short term. We will see a return of normal wind and waves as piedmont troughiness tightens the gradient along the western fringe of the Bermuda high. So rather than seeing such light winds and seas as today we expect SW 10-15 to return with the occasional gust to 20kt. This should allow 3 ft seas to return to the forecast, mainly away from the coastline in the largely coast- parallel flow. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...The marine community can expect south to southwest winds through the period. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots with the possibility of a diurnal increase with low level jetting. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.