Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 272321 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 720 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front will approach the area and stall in the vicinity Tuesday through Friday. This will create seasonable temperatures and thunderstorm chances through the week. This front will lift north briefly this weekend leading to warmer temperatures. An area of low pressure will move nearby Sunday into Monday with cooler temperatures and better rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 700 PM Monday...The latest HRRR is showing the convection to the west dissipating before it reaches the forecast area but will keep a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly for our areas west of Interstate 95. With light boundary layer wind and partial clearing could allow patchy fog to develop and minimum temps are still expected to be in the lower to middle 70-75. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday...Chief headline remains ramped up rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, as a decrepit but pivotal front moseys into the area, providing just enough focus for SCT TSTMS. Clouds and patches of rain cooled air, along with slight upper troughing will keep maximum temperatures near to a few degrees below seasonable/climatic values. `Average` QPF amounts for the 2 day period from daybreak Tuesday through the first light on Thursday between a 1/2 and 3/4 inch. Locally higher amounts are likely since PWAT values may exceed 2 inches by Tuesday night. The lazy west to east steering flow could produce localized water problems this period as any storms will be sluggish in motion. Drying of mid-level air Wednesday could dictate Tuesday as the wettest of the 2 days, mainly afternoon and night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front wavering in the vicinity through the end of the week will create seasonable temperatures but unsettled weather Thu and Fri. The guidance has come into better agreement with the front being just offshore Thursday, but will lift back to the north Friday in response to surface high pressure expanding from the east and subtle shortwave ridging downstream of a shortwave digging into the TN VLY. With lowered heights aloft beneath an eastern CONUS trough, and surface convergence along this boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thu and Fri, with a better chance Fri as the front lifts north. Slightly lower convection chances exist Saturday with the front stalled to the north, but warmer temperatures will lead to better instability so again chance POP will remain, mostly for diurnal activity. Sun/Mon is looking more interesting, with weather potentially impacting the July 4th holiday. The aforementioned front will slowly push SE once again as a cold front, while a wave of low pressure develops along it in response to a shortwave moving to the east. This front will drop slowly across the area Sun/Mon while the weak wave of low pressure moves nearby. This will potentially create a period of heavier rainfall, followed by cooler temperatures for Monday after being above climo Sat/Sun. This front will sag slowly south so unsettled conditions may persist well into Monday although a southern trend in POP will be forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 23Z...Looks quiet overnight with upstream convection expected to dissipate over the next couple hours. Debris clouds will likely moves southeast in the flow aloft putting a damper on any widespread fog development. Regardless could still see some patchy fog overnight however VFR conditions are expected to dominate. Tempo MVFR conditions are not out of the realm of possibility invof shra/tsra tomorrow afternoon, but expect convection to be scattered thus only mention VCTS at this point all terminals after 17z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Possible brief MVFR/IFR from scattered convection each day. Brief MVFR from fog possible each day. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 PM Monday...Southeast winds at 8 to 12 knots over the coastal waters with seas of 2 feet continue and they are expected to remain around this speed as a slowly moving from moves to the mid-sections of the Carolinas. The 22 UTC HRRR is showing isolated coastal showers overnight so will continue a mention of those overnight. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday...Overall light winds this period, becoming squirrelly to light and variable Wednesday as a decaying cold front hangs up along the coast or just offshore. TSTMS may become more problematic Tue/Wed since the front will provide focus for storms. No advisories or caution statement expected due to light wind but mariners should get a radar update before heading out since a smattering of showers and storms. Seas 2-3 feet this period mostly from S-SE this period and in 5-7 second intervals. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Weak cold front will waver in the vicinity Thursday before lifting back to the north Friday and Saturday. Light and variable winds within the weak gradient Thursday will transition to SW around 10 kts Friday, and then 10-15 kts Saturday as high pressure offshore ridges back across the waters. A 2ft/8sec SE wave will exist through the period, while a 5 sec SW wave amplifies, especially Friday and Saturday. This will create 2 ft seas Thursday, rising to 2-3 ft Friday and Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SRP

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