Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311908 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 308 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO TUESDAY. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE DURING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE CONVECTION WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST BEHIND THE WAVE THAT HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A LINGERING BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SEEN OVER LAND AND SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE CONTINUING MAINLY WEST OF A LUMBERTON TO GEORGETOWN LINE THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD END THIS EVENING. MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DISAPPEARING OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. IF THE CLOUD COVER THINS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TUE. A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY WED. A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW A NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH LATE WED NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS IN AND OF ITSELF WILL BE GOOD REASON TO KEEP THE POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY...LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. HOWEVER...IT MAY END UP THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL BE OFFSHORE. WILL ALSO TRY TO CAPTURE THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WED NIGHT WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST FULL DAY WHERE THE AREA IS NO LONGER DEALING WITH ANY REMNANTS OF ERIKA. PW DROPS TO ABOUT 1.6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GFS NOW SHOWS A VERY WEAK ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURE AND SO FEEL THAT THE LOW END SCATTERED (30 POPS) THAT WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST IS JUST FINE. QPF PROSPECTS WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE LOWER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING. ANOTHER MID LEVEL FEATURE CROSSES ON FRIDAY BUT IN MORE OF WESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHWESTERLY SOURCE WHICH MAY FAVOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AT LEAST ACCORDING TO ECMWF. GFS HAS MORE OF A REPEAT OF THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE SAME WILL HOLD TRUE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THAT OFTEN LEADS TO TROPICAL BLUE SKIES LADEN WITH TOWERING CU AND ALSO A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN END. THE NAM STILL IS PESSIMISTIC...WITH HIGH POPS THROUGH 00Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AND WILL BACK OFF OF THIS SCENARIO. TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INTRODUCING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT HAS THE MOST DENSE FOG INLAND...WHICH IS COUNTER INTUITIVE SINCE MOST OF THE RAIN OCCURRED NEAR THE COAST. PERHAPS BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE INLAND AND THIS IS THE REASON THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. TUESDAY...BECOMING VFR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE COAST AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE BUOYS TO THE SOUTH AND AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AT 3 TO 4 FEET. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AT 10 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FOOT DURING THIS TIME. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS TO 10 KT OR LESS. SW TO S WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE BOTH DAYS SHOULD BECOME MORE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING DUE TO A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 FT...BUT UP TO 3 FT TUE. A WEAK 8 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL PERSIST. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT JUST 10 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. IT MAY STRUGGLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO FIND AN ESTABLISHED DIRECTION HOWEVER THOUGH NORTH AND EAST COMPONENTS WILL TEND TO BE FAVORED. THIS WILL BE FORTIFIED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH GETS ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN U.S. BETWEEN THE LENGTHENING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL FETCH ON SATURDAY THE WAVE FORECAST MAY RISE FROM 2 TO 2-3 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL/DRH

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