Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 272321
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
720 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A slow moving cold front will approach the area and stall in the
vicinity Tuesday through Friday. This will create seasonable
temperatures and thunderstorm chances through the week. This front
will lift north briefly this weekend leading to warmer
temperatures. An area of low pressure will move nearby Sunday into
Monday with cooler temperatures and better rain chances.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 700 PM Monday...The latest HRRR is showing the convection to
the west dissipating before it reaches the forecast area but will
keep a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly for our areas west
of Interstate 95. With light boundary layer wind and partial
clearing could allow patchy fog to develop and minimum temps
are still expected to be in the lower to middle 70-75.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Chief headline remains ramped up rain
chances Tuesday and Wednesday, as a decrepit but pivotal front
moseys into the area, providing just enough focus for SCT TSTMS.
Clouds and patches of rain cooled air, along with slight upper
troughing will keep maximum temperatures near to a few degrees
below seasonable/climatic values. `Average` QPF amounts for the
2 day period from daybreak Tuesday through the first light on
Thursday between a 1/2 and 3/4 inch. Locally higher amounts are
likely since PWAT values may exceed 2 inches by Tuesday night.
The lazy west to east steering flow could produce localized water
problems this period as any storms will be sluggish in motion.
Drying of mid-level air Wednesday could dictate Tuesday as the
wettest of the 2 days, mainly afternoon and night.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front wavering in the vicinity through
the end of the week will create seasonable temperatures but
unsettled weather Thu and Fri. The guidance has come into better
agreement with the front being just offshore Thursday, but will lift
back to the north Friday in response to surface high pressure
expanding from the east and subtle shortwave ridging downstream of a
shortwave digging into the TN VLY. With lowered heights aloft
beneath an eastern CONUS trough, and surface convergence along this
boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thu and
Fri, with a better chance Fri as the front lifts north. Slightly
lower convection chances exist Saturday with the front stalled to
the north, but warmer temperatures will lead to better instability
so again chance POP will remain, mostly for diurnal activity.
Sun/Mon is looking more interesting, with weather potentially
impacting the July 4th holiday. The aforementioned front will slowly
push SE once again as a cold front, while a wave of low pressure
develops along it in response to a shortwave moving to the east.
This front will drop slowly across the area Sun/Mon while the weak
wave of low pressure moves nearby. This will potentially create a
period of heavier rainfall, followed by cooler temperatures for
Monday after being above climo Sat/Sun. This front will sag slowly
south so unsettled conditions may persist well into Monday although
a southern trend in POP will be forecast.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...Looks quiet overnight with upstream convection expected
to dissipate over the next couple hours. Debris clouds will likely
moves southeast in the flow aloft putting a damper on any widespread
fog development. Regardless could still see some patchy fog
overnight however VFR conditions are expected to dominate. Tempo
MVFR conditions are not out of the realm of possibility invof
shra/tsra tomorrow afternoon, but expect convection to be scattered
thus only mention VCTS at this point all terminals after 17z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Possible brief MVFR/IFR from
scattered convection each day. Brief MVFR from fog possible each day.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 PM Monday...Southeast winds at 8 to 12 knots over the
coastal waters with seas of 2 feet continue and they are expected
to remain around this speed as a slowly moving from moves to the
mid-sections of the Carolinas. The 22 UTC HRRR is showing isolated
coastal showers overnight so will continue a mention of those
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Overall light winds this period, becoming
squirrelly to light and variable Wednesday as a decaying cold
front hangs up along the coast or just offshore. TSTMS may become
more problematic Tue/Wed since the front will provide focus for
storms. No advisories or caution statement expected due to light
wind but mariners should get a radar update before heading out
since a smattering of showers and storms. Seas 2-3 feet this
period mostly from S-SE this period and in 5-7 second intervals.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Weak cold front will waver in the vicinity
Thursday before lifting back to the north Friday and Saturday. Light
and variable winds within the weak gradient Thursday will transition
to SW around 10 kts Friday, and then 10-15 kts Saturday as high
pressure offshore ridges back across the waters. A 2ft/8sec SE wave
will exist through the period, while a 5 sec SW wave amplifies,
especially Friday and Saturday. This will create 2 ft seas Thursday,
rising to 2-3 ft Friday and Saturday.