Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270534 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1234 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THROUGH EARLY MARCH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...JUST RECENTLY A NEARLY STATIC T/TD REGIME ACROSS THE AREA IS SEEING LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS LENDING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES IN SPOTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BRINGING LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. VISIBILITIES WERE LOWERING BELOW 10NM MILES IN A FEW LOCALS AND WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF FG/FZFG ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER N WINDS DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA. VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING. FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50 DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES. BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM MUCH MORE PROBABLE. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD IN. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS...SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS NOTED IN RECENT OBS MAY BE THE SIGNAL THAT THESE CONDITIONS ARE COMING TO AN END. TAFS DO CARRY TEMPO MVFR CIGS TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING LOWER CIGS THROUGH 09Z OR SO. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS TOWARD DAYBREAK TO OVERALL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT TEMPO WITH FOG IN GOING FORECAST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...ALL ADVISORIES EXPIRES AS OF 10 PM AS SEAS DAMPEN TO LESS THAN 6 FT. FRYING PAN 6.9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS BUT THE LONGER PERIOD ENERGY WILL DECAY ONTO THE SHELF. WILL NEED TO REPLACE NC WATERS WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT HOWEVER SINCE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIR FRISKY FROM THE N OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ELEVATED SEAS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4 FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE IN ORDER. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT. TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO HAZARDS/HEADLINES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...31

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