Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221744 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1244 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN A COOL SURFACE AIR MASS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY LEADING TO PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. THIS AIR MASS LIFTS OUT ON TUESDAY CLEARING THE PATH FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT MAY ADD SOME THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR CHRISTMAS AND THE DAYS THAT FOLLOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW OFF THE COAST BETWEEN NEAR CAPE HATTERAS. THIS LOW HAS REINFORCED THE COOL NORTH WINDS AND IS KEEPING THE COASTAL FRONT EAST OF FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT REMAINING OFF THE COAST UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF IS MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EAST OF A KINGSTREE TO ELIZABETHTOWN LINE. SO HIGH POPS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE AND CHANCE OF POPS TO THE WEST. WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE AND CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY EXPECTED THE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH 42-46 INLAND TO 47-49 AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. WEDGE WILL FINALLY BE BREAKING DOWN ON TUESDAY. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS OCCURS, WHICH IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO MODEL, WILL MODULATE HIGH TEMPS. CURRENT FCST LEANS MORE ON THE SLOWER WRF KEEPING MID 50S INLAND WHILE COASTAL LOCALES GET INTO MID/UPPER 60S. DEEP SWRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE TO BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME. PINNING DOWN WHERE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER FLOW AND DYNAMICS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE STRONGER RESULTING FLOW WILL BRING EVEN MILDER AIR INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND HIGHS IN THE 70S APPEAR LIKELY DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. DESPITE THE WARMTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUCH POOR LAPSE RATES THAT INSTABILITY IS REALLY GOING TO BE TOUGH TO COME BY, MAYBE ENOUGH ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT HSLC SETUP. HAVE LEFT ISO THUNDER AS SOME FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT`S LOWS MAY BE VERY MILD LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR SOME COLD ADVECTION RELATED TO FROPA TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SIMILARLY RAIN WILL BE RAPIDLY SHUTTING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE EXACT TIMING LIKELY NEEDING OF SOME REFINEMENT IN FUTURE FORECASTS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...CHRISTMAS AND THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW WILL FEATURE A RETURN OF SUNSHINE...NOT SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE. ALSO SINCE THE UPPER WAVE DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH NOW RETAINS A DEFINED POSITIVE TILT THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS QUITE TEMPERED AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND NO LONGER SEEMS TO OFFER UP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN FAVOR OF SEASONABLE WEATHER IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE. MOISTURE MAY BE ON THE RISE BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN A STILL RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...CIGS REMAIN AOB 600-700 FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VSBYS ARE VFR...BUT MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING IN AREAS OF RAIN/BR AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS MOVING NE MAINLY BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. KFLO/KLBT STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF HAVING 700-900 FT CIGS/VFR VSBYS...BUT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY DROP VSBYS AT TIMES TO MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THOSE TERMINALS. EXPECT WORST CIGS/VSBYS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING BUT A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AND LOWERING LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SUGGEST CIGS/VSBYS APPROACHING 200 / 1/2 AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KFLO/KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS BUT STILL AOB 600/2. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KCRE/KMYR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE REMAINING TERMINALS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF REMAINING AOB 600/2. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LIFR/IFR CIGS TUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS LATER IN THE DAY. WED EXPECT SHOWERS/MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VFR THU BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR FRI/SAT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...THE COASTAL FRONT REMAINS EAST OF FRYING PAN SHOALS AND AND THE LOW THAT PAST JUST EAST OF THE WATERS HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AND ARE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE SEAS HAVE DROPPED N A FOOT TO 4.5 FEET AT 41110 AND 5 FEET AT 41013. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AND AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS OCCURS IS ALWAYS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL AFFECT HOW QUICKLY LOCAL WINDS VEER AND INCREASE IN SPEED. HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTION WHICH WILL KEEP THE MAIN DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE SSWRLY FLOW REALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN A STRENGTHENING STATE AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CRANK UP AND A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED BY TUES NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE AS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE STRENGTHENS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. FROPA EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN ABRUPT WIND VEER. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FLYING JUST FOLLOWING VIGOROUSLY DRIVEN COLD FRONT. HOWEVER THE COLD SURGE ITSELF IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BOTH DROP OFF RATHER NICELY AS THE DAY WEARS ON. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SCEC THOUGH AS THE SHARP WIND SHIFT COULD LEAD TO RATHER STEEP WAVE FACES EVEN AS THEIR OVERALL HEIGHT DECREASES. FRIDAY BRINGS A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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