Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211939 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 339 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A HIGHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COASTAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO W-NW FLOW OFF THE SURFACE IN A SULTRY AND FUELED AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED ERUPTION OF TORRENTIAL RAIN CORES...PRIMARILY CONFINED ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT MARCHES INLAND WILL SPARK MORE UPDRAFTS AS THE MARINE INTRUSION DEEPENS...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE NEW GROWTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. NO OTHER TRIGGERS FARTHER INLAND AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HOT AND HUMID BUT SO FAR STILL UNTAPPED OVER THE DEEP INTERIOR...WHERE IT COULD REMAIN SUCH. ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY INTO EARLY EVENING SINCE SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE E ZONES AS WILL THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES WILL CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE TSTMS...AS WAS NOTED IN HOLDEN BEACH EARLIER WHERE DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED. DIURNAL COOLING INTO MID-EVENING OR SOONER SHOULD BEGIN TO SHOW AND TAKES ITS TOLL ON CONVECTIVE VIGOR...PARTICULARLY WITH VERY WARM H5 TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THE BUILDUP OF LOW-LEVEL HEAT HOWEVER AND THE RESULTANT BUOYANCY IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD SUSTAIN CELLS THROUGH EVENING. STEERING WINDS WILL GUIDE STORMS SLOWLY TO THE ESE-SSE. MINS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND 70-74 INLAND WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THIS AFTN MAY ALLOW DECENT FALLS OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...ALLOWING A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND WE EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE... WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE CONVECTION WHILE STILL GENERALLY SLOW MOVING...SHOULD PICK UP THE PACE THIS PERIOD AS COLUMNAR WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE TWO AND THUS THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO AGAIN BE ENOUGH DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SO THAT WHEN MIXING BECOMES DEEPER MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN DROP...WITH MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DROPPING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THUS...EVEN WITH THE INTENSE HEATING...TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S FRI...IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY MEETING CRITERIA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE HWO...BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING SAT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY OR SO...WILL GO FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BOTH DAYS...MORE SO ON SAT... KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NIGHTTIME VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUG.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THEN THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD OR STRONG CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK PRODUCING A QUIETER WEATHER PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 65 AND 70. AS FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY. THE GFS WAS TRACKING IT UP INTO THE GULF COAST A FEW DAYS AGO AND THEN HAS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTED EAST NOW SHOWING MORE OF A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST EAST AND FASTEST MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT DECENT SWELLS MAY REACH OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MID WEEK BUT AS FAR AS WEATHER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UNDERWAY NEAR THE N COAST. WILL ADD TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM HAS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO. FRIDAY...A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE THAT PREVIOUS DAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. && .MARINE...
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033- 039-053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MJC/DL

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