Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311835 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY THEN STALL OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA AS WELL. EXPECT THIS GRADUAL TREND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...MID-LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THUS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION HAS A LOW PROBABILITY. IN ADDITION...WE WILL SEE THE CONTINUATION OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ADDED DEGREE HERE OR THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OVERALL ARE CLOSE TO...IF NOT AT ALREADY...OUR HIGHS FOR TODAY. AS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE AROUND THE UNSEASONABLY DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US TODAY...A SYNOPTIC TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ITS COURSE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOCUS TURNS TO THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST AS A WARM FRONT BY MORNING. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTS PREVIOUS THINKING THAT CIRRUS CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...HAVE SLIGHTLY TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT CONTINUING OVERALL WITH AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST AS 5H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST...PUSHING FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST INTO THE REGION. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...TAPPING GULF MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW...TAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE...WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AND ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SOUTHERLY FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...ATYPICALLY WELL DEFINED (FOR THE TIME OF YEAR) MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY. DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL LIFT...WHICH WILL THEN BE AIDED BY MID LEVEL PVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOC WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AND WHILE RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH QPF AMOUNTS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO IT BEING SUCH A CLOUDY DAY THAT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP SAVE FOR PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE PLAYERS ALL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE HEADING INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH ALL OF THEM WEAKEN. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH POPS AND SUPPRESSED AFTERNOON TEMPS. TUESDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT STILL ONES THAT ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...BUT ALSO SENDS ITS REMAINING VORT CENTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS THE GFS STRAIGHTENS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WE ALSO MAY SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN CONTRAST TO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MAY THUS BE A DAY WHERE WE TRANSITION TO MORE SCATTERED AND DEEPER CONVECTION ESP IF TEMPS START BOUNCING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK SEASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO BOTH TEMPERATURES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE OF A DRIER WESTERLY DIRECTION WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN BKN CIGS THIS AFTN AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD. EAST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP MORE THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE ADDED PREVAILING WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE COASTAL TERMS. RAIN CHANCES INLAND INCREASE THIS EVENING AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH...SO WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR KFLO/KLBT AFTER 00Z FRI. AS THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS MAY ENCROACH UPON THE COASTAL SITES AFTER 06Z FRI. BY 12Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED OVER OUR CWA WITH -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW PERSISTENT AND HOW EARLY THE RAINFALL BEGINS...MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OR HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING. THOUGH BRIEF IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS SAT THROUGH MON AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON TUE. && .MARINE...
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SGL SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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