Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 222217 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 617 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER." ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE. FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION. BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS EASE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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