Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240837 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 437 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Drier air has worked into the area in the wake of an initial front, but it will still be warm today. The passage of a reinforcing cold front late tonight and Wednesday morning will usher in much cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday as Canadian high pressure takes hold. The risk for showers will increase during the weekend as low pressure develops ahead of a cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...Cold front as analyzed by WPC aligned near the coast early this morning with a secondary cold front to follow tonight. Any convection associated with the cold front has made it off shore with only lingering light shwrs mainly north of the tip fo Cape Fear. Residual low level moisture will produce some fog and stratus through the early morning hours but fog will lift and clouds will break up leaving a mostly sunny sky this afternoon. With a shift back to SW the column will dry for the most part, with a reinforcing push of colder air making its way in until later today into tonight as secondary cold front moves through. Temps should warm into the mid 70s today. A broad and deep mid to upper level trough extending down from the Great Lakes into the Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly shift east maintaining a deep SW flow above the sfc. This will put the breaks on the cold front to our east but dry air will make its way in behind the front through today. Pcp water up as high as 1.82 inches will drop over an inch through this morning. As the secondary cold front moves across the Carolinas later this afternoon into tonight, there will be a slight spike in pcp water up near .9 inches but do not expect much aside from a few clouds as the column remains dry and forcing is weak. GFS shows 850 temps dropping later today from close to 15c down to 6 to 8 c by daybreak Wed. Overnight lows will drop to 45 to 50 most places tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...A reinforcing cold front late tonight and Wed morning will bring dry and significantly cooler air into the eastern Carolinas with no risk for rainfall mid week as Canadian high pressure takes up residence. The cold advection will keep highs in the 60s both days and as cool as the mid 60s. Lows will be mainly in the 40s and as cool as around 40. Patchy frost, even in the coldest inland spots is not expected given the warm soils. Minimum afternoon relative humidity will be in the 35 to 40 percent range across a majority of the forecast area both days.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Canadian high pressure will push offshore Friday and with that, temps will return to seasonable levels. Moisture will begin to increase Saturday on increasing southerly winds as a pre-frontal airmass returns ahead of a deep mid-level trough pushing through the MS VLY. This will drive a cold front across the area Saturday night into Sunday. Ahead of this feature, a weak area of low pressure may develop and move just off the coast, and while total column moisture remains confined below 700mb, showers are possible late Saturday through Sunday morning associated with this feature. This front will bring the potential for the coldest air of the season behind it, as 850mb progs drop below 0C and extended MOS numbers feature values as much as 10 degrees below climo early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Winds will remain SW through today as a cold front moves slowly east. Drier air will make its way in behind the front with last of thunderstorms making their way off the Cape Fear coast. Some lingering moisture in the way of strato cu around 5 to 7 kt ft will remain, but residual low level moisture will produce areas of fog through this morning. The fog will lift with some stratus around through mid morning and then most places should become mainly clear. Winds will remain out of the SW until later today when winds shift to the W-NW. These impacts will affect all terminals through the early morning period with MVFR to IFR conditions in fog with low vsby and ceilings. Extended Outlook... VFR Wednesday through Friday. Slight chance for showers Saturday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist through this morning. Gusty offshore winds in convection associated with cold front will back to the SW through today before a secondary cold front moves through overnight tonight. Seas up to 5 to 8 ft early this morning will diminish in a decreasing off shore flow through today. Seas will drop below SCA thresholds by this afternoon leaving seas of 3 to 5 ft over most waters tonight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...NW winds and cold advection will dominate the period. The wind direction will likely veer to N or NNE Thu night. Wind speeds will be up to around 15 kt Wed and Wed night, diminishing to 10 kt or less during the day Thu and remaining light Thu night. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft Wed into Thu, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft by Thu night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...The center of high pressure will shift offshore Fri with winds veering to NE Fri and E Sat at speeds of 10 kt or less. A cold front will approach from the W very late Sat causing wind speeds to uptick by the end of the period. Seas will be 1 to 3 ft through the period.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RGZ

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