Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260530 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 130 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Summer-like warmth will prevail today as an upper ridge holds across the region. The ridge will begin to move offshore on Friday, allowing tropical low pressure from the Bahamas to spread humid and unsettled air into the region this weekend. This slow moving tropical feature will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 130 AM Thursday...High pressure offshore will ridge across the waters overnight. Low level convergence has resulted in some clouds developing south of Cape Fear. As the ridge reasserts itself overnight...expect much of these clouds will be suppressed further south. Convective cloud debris will filter across the forecast area overnight and so skies are not expected to remain totally clear for the entire night. Winds will be light with weak steering flow aloft. Recovering dewpoints should keep lows from dropping below the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will extend over the eastern Carolinas through much of the short term, keeping in fair skies, dry weather and warm temperatures through at least Friday afternoon. This is when forecast uncertainty increases. Guidance continues to suggest that a yet-to-form tropical or sub-tropical system may move towards the south-Atlantic coast on Friday night. This may bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, especially along the coast, in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. It is unlikely that winds associated with this system will be a concern Friday night as guidance still shows a weakly organized and relatively distant system at that time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Rain chances on the increase on Saturday though how much depends on what shape the Bahamas system takes. A more open trough up and down the coast would favor some coastal rain whereas a more consolidated low near Florida may not. Interesting the the WRF shows the latter but also an area of rain up the coast. With the added cloud cover Saturday will end up seeing a high in the low 80s, generally cooler than those leading up to it. Will show a further increase in rain chances by Sunday as though the system will be very slowly meandering its overall drift should be north and westward. Forecast uncertainty only grows from there as some models show that the system could have a weak reflection (and thus its associated moisture) around through Tuesday. Assuming this comes to pass the ever present clouds will keep highs close to climo (despite the upper ridging otherwise favoring much warmer) while nighttime lows remain a solid category above normal. At some point towards the end of the period we should transition back to increasing sun and daytime warmth in addition to waning POPs. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid TAF cycle as high pressure remains in place. Nearly clear skies tonight will continue through Today, with few mid to high clouds through the morning hours. Southerly winds 4-7 kts. After daybreak, VFR continues with southwesterly winds early becoming southerly in the afternoon, increasing to around 10 gusts to 17 kts. Extended Outlook...MVFR possible in scattered to numerous showers, isolated TSTMS this weekend. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM Thursday...Offshore high pressure will ridge across the waters overnight. SW winds will be near 10 kt. Seas will be 2 ft or less. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will extend over the waters through much of the short term, keeping winds light and seas of only around 2 or 3 ft through at least Friday afternoon. However...guidance continues to suggest that a yet-to-form tropical or sub-tropical system may move towards the south- Atlantic coast on Friday night. This may bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, along with gradually increasing winds and seas, into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. However, it is unlikely that winds associated with this system will even be strong enough to warrant any advisories or warnings for the short term as guidance still shows a weakly organized and relatively distant system at that time. For now expecting NE winds of 10 to 15 kt Friday night, with seas building to 3 to 4 ft. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Some of the forecast parameters that we have some confidence in are that winds will be onshore and seas will tend to build through the period. Points of uncertainty are more related to the degree of wave building, which is related to the yet uncertain strength of the system. The size of the system will also modify the compass point of the onshore flow, which could wind up from NE to E or SE. Overall though the chance for an advisory appears slightly diminished. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/8 SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL/8

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