Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 242001 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 401 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Thunderstorms this evening and tonight may be severe. High heat and humidity will result in elevated heat indices again today. A cold front will drop very slowly south and across the area Saturday. High pressure will build in behind the front bringing drier weather for Sunday, but the risk for thunderstorms will increase again next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 PM Friday...Impulse that is expected to enhance TSTM intensity was skirting the northern TN/NC border. Activity thus far has been focused on an W to E outflow boundary produced from previous convection. As a result, am expecting renewed develop to form later this afternoon and evening north and west of SE NC and NE SC. This expected development stands a better chance of more organized structure and stronger intensity through evening. The SPC released a mesoscale discussion indicating only a 20% chance of a watch through 5 PM, but again this does not speak for tonight. Odds of damaging winds and large hail stands at 15% for tonight and the `slight risk` status remains intact. The severe window in terms of peak intensity remains between 8PM and 3AM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 PM Friday...Rain showers and isolated TSTMS will linger along the eastern half of NE SC and SE NC Saturday as a sluggish frontal boundary briefly hangs up near the coast before being pushed S and E. The SPC only carries general thunder for Saturday and pop values will taper from NW to SE through the day. The air mass will not see a great deal of change but clouds and rain will keep maximums quite a bit cooler than today. Sunday will`feel` a bit different as post-frontal drying lowers dewpoints a few ticks.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Friday... The weather will be fairly seasonable but also fairly unsettled through the long term. Monday and Tuesday bring initially weak northwest flow that will ramp up slightly while the piedmont trough and afternoon seabreeze both making contributions to storms. And with the northwest flow even the immediate coast will not be exempt from storms. Wednesday and Thursday will drop a front into the area that should stall. Wherever this boundary stalls should become the favored zone for storms and areas north and west of it may become a local minimum. Future forecasts may be able to add such detail. On friday the next upper trough passing by well to our north looks to pull the front back out of the area once again.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z FRIDAY...A bit of uncertainty regarding thunderstorms today as various model guidance differs considerably with respect to timing and placement, and these storms will be strong enough for IFR visibilities and rather strong winds. The solution we have opted for breaks out the strongest storms over inland terminals later this afternoon whereas coastal terminals see the heaviest activity more towards evening, perhaps even after dark. A little bit of MFVR fog may form towards the predawn hours especially in areas that see rain. A cold front may come into LBT and maybe even FLO towards the end of the TAF period. Extended outlook...Sct TS overnight Fri, Sat and Tues. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 PM Friday...Bumpy conditions on the waters with 15-20 KT SW winds, and an exercise caution statement will be needed this evening ahead of an approaching front. Seas generally 4-5 ft with dominant wave periods of 5-6 seconds. Strong to severe TSTMS will likely rake the waters tonight and mariners are urged to obtain a radar update before heading out even on the ICW. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Friday...Easing SW winds Saturday will see a shift to the N-NE as a weak and slow moving cold front pushed S and E. No advisories or caution statements are expected but a few TSTMS may linger over the 0-20 nm waters Saturday. A light onshore wind expected Sunday and much improved compared to recent days, with seas 2-3 ft seas, down from 3-4 on Saturday.As of 3 PM Wednesday... LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday...Outside of thunderstorms there should be some pretty quiet marine conditions in place through the duration of the long term. Easterly winds on Monday will slowly veer as the day wears on and speeds remain capped at just 10 kt. The piedmont trough and west Atlantic high pressure will then yield southwesterly flow of a similarly feeble strength for Tuesday and Wednesday. Predominant wave heights currently expected to stay at 2 ft and below though a little swell energy could yield some of 3 ft towards the outer reaches of our 20 nm zones.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RJD/DRH SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR MARINE...

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