Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290711 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 311 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through Sunday. Expect warm temperatures and isolated sea breeze showers or storms, mainly Sunday. The next cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week period. A Low pressure system will impact the region Thursday into Friday with possible soaking rain.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Saturday...Low stratus was covering much of the local forecast area early this morning as evident on the 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery. A very moist southerly flow has remained up around 10 mph keeping fog out of the picture, but allowing the development of stratus mainly along the coast and then moving inland. Model guidance does not have a good grip on the clouds, but sounding data does show a saturated layer between 500 and 1500 ft through early this morning. A very humid air mass will continue to maintain dewpoint temps in the 70s with temps holding in the low to mid 70s through early this morning. This is very unusual for April. Although there is a moist saturated shallow layer of moisture, the atmosphere aloft remains very dry as mid to upper ridge builds over the eastern Carolinas. This dry air and subsidence aloft will maintain a lid on convection and therefore once the stratus lifts there should only be some cu around this afternoon and possibly some cirrus streaming high in the sky. Expect a good amount of sunshine across the area once the low clouds dissipate as drier air mixes down this morning. Temps will soar into and through the 80s today reaching around 90 inland with overnight lows holding up around 70 tonight once again. Overall, temps are running about 15 degrees above normal. Climate note: A new all-time record warm low temperature of 74 degrees was set for the month of April in Wilmington. Records extend back to the year 1874.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Saturday...Chances for convection increase through the period as a cold front moves east across the coastal Carolinas, with a deep upper trough descending upon central CONUS. High pressure over the western Atlantic will retreat east as the cold front approaches, with Sunday being generally dry other than some spotty afternoon sea-breeze related convection. POPs increase on Monday, maxing out in the likely category Monday night as the front moves across the forecast area. Steady SW flow in advance of the front will maintain above-normal temperatures for both days, with highs in the mid 80s (lower at the coast) and lows in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front will move off the coast Tue morning and high pressure along the Gulf Coast will slide east and then offshore to our S during Wed. This should bring a dry period. Deep low pressure will move out of the mid south and Gulf coast states Wed, lifting slowly to the NE. Its associated cold front will move into the Southeast states Thu-Thu night, bringing the risk for robust thunderstorms.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z Saturday...Satellite shows almost entire area covered with low stratus mainly between 500 ft and 1500 ft in very moist southerly flow. Sounding data shows very shallow saturated layer below 1500 ft both early this morning and again tonight. The winds early this morning have kept fog out of the picture with only stratus but tonight may be trickier. It looks like the winds may drop enough especially inland to have possibility of fog. For now, just included stratus again after 03z. Counting on drier air to mix down and break up stratus this morning between 11z and 14z. Then expect just some sct cu with mainly VFR through the afternoon as ridge aloft maintains plenty of dry air and subsidence to keep all shower activity at bay. Extended outlook...Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Southerly return flow around 10 kts will maintain seas between 2 and 3 ft most waters. The winds and seas will kick up this afternoon as sea breeze develops. It will also help to back the winds a bit through the aftn. A very warm and humid air mass is helping to bring water temps up into the 70s. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Increasing SW flow in advance of the next cold front will make it likely that a Small Craft Advisory will need to be issued on Monday for winds gusting up to around 30 kts. By Monday night seas will have built to 4 to 7 ft although winds may slacken in the pre- dawn hours of Tuesday as the front makes its close approach. Sunday looks to be the better day for boating, with seas of right around 3 ft and winds of 10 to 15 kts. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...In the wake of the cold frontal passage early Tuesday, offshore winds will slowly diminish. The offshore trajectories will knock seas down and should drop below Small Craft Advisory levels by Tuesday afternoon. There are no concerns for Wednesday into Thursday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...CHS AVIATION...RGZ

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