Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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239 FXUS62 KILM 241210 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 810 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... One more chilly start this morning...before temperatures rise above normal for the entire upcoming week. A series of passing low pressure systems will bring slight chances of rain Sunday through Tuesday, and again late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 810 AM Friday...Have cancelled the Frost Advisory an hour early as temperatures are rising rapidly this morning. No changes to the forecast otherwise needed. Previous discussion from early this morning follows: After a chilly to in some spots frosty morning today will turn out seasonable under a sunny sky, some 15 degrees warmer than yesterday. This is thanks to a surface and low level area of high pressure off the coast. The sunshine will largely be sponsored by the mid level ridge, shifted a bit further west from the low level feature and generally be centered overhead. This upper level ridge will move east tonight, opening up the area to some deeper moisture advection, albeit in a fairly gradual manner.The warm advection will continue as well bringing a seasonable to slightly mild night with lows fairly close to 50. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 AM Friday...Hearty warm air advection already underway to kick off the weekend, with a short-wave cyclone pushing into the middle Mississippi valley and a high pressure cell axis elongated along 34 N in the western Atlantic. If you like your maximum temperatures in the 70s this will be your weekend. Curvature of the low pressure system northward Sunday west of the area, will deflect the bulk of precipitation into the Appalachians with little offerings near the coast, thus small rain chances Sunday and favored well inland. Low-level convergence offshore may spark a few marine showers toward land but rain amounts if any to be minimal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 324 AM Friday...A very mild week on tap with a series of southern stream short-waves providing a chance of rain Monday into Tuesday and again late in the week. Maximums this week each day will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, and generally warmer inland away from the cooling effects of the ocean as a robust sea breeze looks in the making each afternoon. Cross sectional analysis and instability parameters suggest a slight chance of a TSTM late Monday through Tuesday. Low level and moist southerly wind flow will prevail this period, with a brief and weak back-door frontal intrusion early Thursday will little consequence except to lighten winds for a small time before another southern stream system approaches, followed by a rain potential on Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z...High confidence in VFR for all terminals through the TAF valid period. For FLO a stratus deck at 7 kft has moved in from the west, but this should break up very early. Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in stratus/fog during the early morning hours of Sat and Sun and in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 810 AM Friday..Latest obs show seas right around 3 ft with a SE wind of 10 kts. No changes needed to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion from early this morning follows: Things looking pretty quiet on the marine front through the period. High pressure off the coast and progressing slightly eastward will turn easterly winds to the south. Wind speeds will remain capped at 10kt and seas 3 ft or less. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 324 AM Friday...A manageable weekend on tap for mariners, nearly summer-like in nature, as south winds 10-15 kt prevail and seas 2-4 feet, highest offshore. Seas a bit larger for the winds mainly due to SE waves of 2-4 feet between 7-10 seconds generated from low pressure interacting with high pressure north of the Bahamas. thus seas slightly elevated due to SE swell. At this time no advisories however anticipated. A few showers may spawn over the waters Sunday but no TSTMS expected over the 0-20nm waters. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 324 AM Friday...Summer like pattern continues as S-SW winds prevail 10-15 KT. A SE swell will keep seas slightly elevated, but dominant periods of around 10 seconds will not make wave particularly steep. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday a few TSTMS can be expected as a low pressure system passes north of the area. Wednesday may see a few storms linger over the Gulf Stream waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...REK/MBB SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...REK MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.