Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220804 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 404 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will expand across the area from the western Atlantic through Wednesday, allowing the heat and high humidity to continue. A cold front will move into the area from the west Wednesday night and move slowly through the area Thursday, passing off the coast Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build in behind the front, bringing drier and breezier weather with slightly below normal temperatures for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...Light showers were hugging portions of the coast. Western Atlantic Ridge will get knocked down slightly as a series of mid-level disturbances move up along the coast. The Piedmont Trough and seabreeze will again be present. Expect most of the convection to light up along the coast today in association with the upper level shortwaves. As the seabreeze moves inland during the afternoon, expect the convection to shift more inland as well. Can`t rule out a shower or thunderstorm in the I-95 corridor today, in closest proximity to the Piedmont Trough, but again expect most of the convection will be east of this major thoroughfare. Convection should wane with stabilization of the environment this eve as a significant shortwave trough moves downstream. However, models are showing another approaching toward Wed morning. Thus will show POPs waning in the early eve with some redevelopment after midnight. Mixed signals as too how far inland convection will redevelop. Favored the coast and offshore as this is the climatologically favored area for nocturnal convection during the late summer. Will keep an open mind for inland development given approaching trough. Opted for patchy to areas of fog with significant visibility restrictions most likely inland through sunrise this morning. Highs today will be in the lower 90s with upper 80s nearer to the coast. This will put the heat index at or just over 100 degrees. Lows tonight will be mainly in the mid and upper 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday and move slowly through the area Wednesday night and Thursday before moving off the coast Thursday night. The result will be an unsettled period with scattered showers and thunderstorms through the period. Max temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday will moderate to the mid to upper 80s Thursday. Lows in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday night will moderate to a range from the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE Thursday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...A strong Canadian anticyclone will continue to press SSE into the area through the weekend, offering a dose of a very early fall feel here with slight cooling and drying. As the strong high interacts with low pressure development off Florida, a stiff NE flow should prevail much of this period into early next week. This will keep maximums moderated, and notably milder minimums at and near the coast compared to the interior where low temperatures this weekend will dip into the 60s in many locations.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Spotty showers were breaking out along the coast while skies were virtually clear inland. Added VCSH for KILM/KCRE/KMYR into the morning hours with VCTS later this morning through mid afternoon. Brief MVFR is possible in BR or a shower at the coast through daybreak. Thunderstorms in the vicinity should produce MVFR ceilings at KILM/KCRE/KMYR. Should a thunderstorm move directly over a terminal, then visibility may drop to MVFR or lower. At KLBT and KFLO, will keep continuity with IFR fog and stratus developing toward morning. The low stratus and fog is expected to lift/dissipate 13-14z. Expect VFR for KLBT and KFLO for the remainder of the TAF period with any thunderstorms expected to stay mainly E of the inland terminals. Extended Outlook...Diurnal showers/tstms expected Wednesday afternoon, becoming more numerous Wednesday night and Thursday. Convective potential will decrease Friday as will any risk for flight restrictions. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...The waters will be in between the Piedmont Trough and Western Atlantic Ridge through tonight. The seabreeze boundary will sharpen this afternoon as it moves inland into early eve. Winds speeds across the waters will increase to 10 to 15 kt late day and remain in that range through the night, being a bit gusty late day and this eve. The direction will be SW to SSW today and SW tonight. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft today and 3 to 4 ft tonight. A SE swell of 9 to 10 seconds will make a significant contribution to the overall wave heights. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Southwest winds of 10 to 15 KT are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night with a turn to a more westerly direction Thursday. Thursday night, winds will become NE 10 to 15 KT but stronger winds are possible as cooler air pushes into the area. Seas should run 2 to 3 feet through the period though 4 footers are possible Thursday night depending on the strength of the NE winds. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...This period will become fraught with challenges for marine activities as a strong Canadian high forces a cold front across the coast Thursday night. NE winds will begin to increase Friday as the Canadian high presses SSE over the waters, and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for 25 KT gusts and 6 foot seas offshore. The strong onshore flow will likely persist into Saturday, as the high interacts with deepening low pressure off Florida, and thus maintaining rough conditions into the weekend.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...MJC/RAN AVIATION...RJD

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