Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271944 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 344 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak wave of low pressure moving just offshore will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today, mainly along the coast. A cold front approaching from the west will stall through mid- week before moving across the area Thursday into Friday. Dry high pressure will build into the area by the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday...Scattered showers and tstms have had a tough time so far this afternoon likely in response to cloud cover inhibiting larger scale destabilization. A weak sea breeze will provide some focus along the coast while better insolation farther inland leads to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms there. Expect areal extent of convection to diminish during the evening. Have trended POPs a little lower along the coast, while have increased them a notch across the Pee Dee and Lumberton areas. A blend of MAV/MET numbers looks reasonable for overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday...A large upper low will continue to evolve across the Midwest and Ohio valley Wednesday through Thursday as it slowly meanders toward the south-southeast. This feature will gradually push a cold front across the area late Thursday. Given how amplified the pattern is aloft would not be surprised if the frontal passage is delayed a little further. Thus the forecast area will remain in the warmer sector through most of the short term period and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist as well. An impulse is shown to wrap around the upper low, likely passing to our northwest during Thursday. SPC continues to highlight central NC with a Marginal Risk of severe tstms. Part of this risk area includes as portion of the Lumberton area and northern parts of the Pee Dee. The highest precipitable water values remain off the coast through Thursday with much lower values beginning to filter in from the west Thursday night. As mentioned earlier, the timing is suspect given the orientation of the front to the flow aloft. A blend of MAV/MET numbers appears reasonable each day and night.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday...Deep large cutoff low over the Ohio Valley on Friday will lift slowly north toward the Great Lakes over the weekend before heading east and weakening over the northeast states. At the same time, a broad ridge will persists across the Atlantic reaching westward toward the southeast coast. The upper low will drive a front east, and it should be aligned along or just off the southeast coast on Fri. Although the sfc winds should shift around to the west and become light and variable, the deep S-SW flow aloft will keep front stalled with a deep southerly flow above. The moisture profiles and sounding date show plenty of dry air wrapping around the potent mid to upper low keeping it very dry in the mid levels Friday into the weekend. The lingering boundary should remain near or just east of the area, but the deep moisture, clouds and convection should stay east and off shore until later in the weekend, at which time the upper low will lift far enough off to the north. This may draw some of the moisture back toward the coast for early next week, but tough to say if it will make it back into forecast area before getting pushed away as high pressure builds down from the north. The next big variable is a tropical system which models show heading north from the Caribbean, possibly reaching as far west as Cuba before making the turn north. This may come into play in the forecast heading into end of the forecast period or the middle of next week. The dry air wrapping around the upper low should produce drier weather for the weekend, but the location of the actual sfc boundary will determine if relatively cooler, lower dewpoint air makes it in for Fri or the weekend. For now, will show lower dewpoint air advecting in from the west on Friday and possibly remaining through at least Saturday with overnight lows dropping down toward 60 and even below 60 inland Fri night and possible Sat night. Afternoon highs should still be up around 80 in plenty of late September sunshine through much of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 18Z...Mainly VFR this period outside of +SHRA and pre-dawn mist. Convection near the coast 18z-21z then shifting inland aft 21Z. A more organized or broken band of convection will approach the I-95 corridor 23Z, hence impacting interior terminal LBT/FLO BTWN 23Z-02Z, then expect DSPTG trend aft 02Z. Debris clouds of SCT020 BKN120 may linger into overnight hours. AFT 09Z early WED, areas of 2SM BR inland, DSPTG aft 1230Z. N winds near the coast 6-10 knots this afternoon, variable 4 knots inland. Light to calm winds overnight becoming S 3-7 knots aft 13Z WED with SCT clouds and generally VFR flight conditions 13Z-18Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Scattered SHRA/TSRA through Thursday. A cold frontal passage late Wednesday into Thursday. Primarily VFR expected Friday through Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Weak area of low pressure will quickly move by the adjacent waters later this afternoon and evening before departing to the northeast. The resulting wind field will be variable at 10 knots or less. Seas will be 3 ft or less tonight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...The flow will eventually become southeasterly during Wednesday in response to a slow moving cold front approaching from the west. Additional veering to the southwest with an increase in speed is expected by Thursday evening just ahead of the cold front. Seas will be 3 ft or less Wednesday through Thursday morning, then possibly 3-4 ft by Thursday evening. LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A cold front will make its way east through the Carolinas and into the local waters on Friday, causing winds to shift from SW at 5-10 kts early, to NW at 5-10 kts late. The sfc pressure pattern will remain weak into the weekend as mid to upper low dominates the weather. As the upper low lifts north by the end of the weekend, the boundary should be drawn back west shifting winds back around. Overall, the winds may become quite variable, remaining light through the weekend. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft through the weekend with a longer period, up to 13 second, SE swell mixing in Sat night into early Sun from a developing tropical system well out in the Atlantic waters.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MJC

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