Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241054 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 555 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the coast will bring unseasonable warmth through this weekend. A cold front is expected to slowly push to the area late Sunday before temporarily stalling across or just south and east of the FA late Sun night thru Mon aftn. It`s during this time frame when light rain and embedded thunder will be most widespread. Monday night will finally see the front pushed well south and east of the region with improving conditions as high pressure builds across the region Tuesday thru Wednesday with seasonable temps. Another warmup will occur Thursday as the high moves off the Carolina Coasts. A strong cold front will push across the area early Fri followed by breezy to windy conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Saturday...The mid level pattern which has been in place for several days remains mostly intact although things are beginning to change slowly. The main feature, strong ridging will continue to get suppressed to the south as mid level troughing, seemingly stuck in the Mississippi Valley for days continues to nudge eastward. Overall, with the surface high pressure remaining in control, expect another foggy start, then a partly sunny and warm day. There is some indication of light showers developing with the latest high resolution guidance favoring coastal areas later today. This may actually be some derivation of sea fog advecting onshore but do not want to remove from the inherited forecast. Highs today will be similar to Friday`s numbers with cooler middle to upper 70s along the coast and closer to and possibly exceeding 80 degrees inland. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Just 1 more day of 80+ degree highs and then Summer is over, and back to reality with temps transitioning back to near normal for late February. Models indicate the break down of the upper ridging thats been supplying the FA with summer-like conditions. Successive mid-level s/ws are progged to wear down and suppress the upper ridge as they move and track to the northeast. This will also allow a frontal boundary thats been plaguing the Central U.S. to finally push ESE then temporarily stall across or just east of the FA for Monday due to it`s parallel alignment to the flow aloft. Look for widely scattered showers well ahead of the sfc cold front Sunday. With limited CAPE, 1st inclination was to keep thunder at bay, but given our summer-like conditions, will include isolated thunder. Pcpn will become more widespread Sunday night as the sfc front moves closer and temporarily stalls across or just south of the ILM CWA. Have indicated likely POPs for Monday. Once again, limited CAPE to exist with the NAM being more generous, will include isolated thunder within the stratiform light rain. The FA lies in the right rear quadrant of the 300mb upper jet which will result in favorable UVVs. Once again, limited CAPE to exist, with the NAM being more generous, and as a result, will include isolated thunder within the stratiform light rains. A positively tilted mid- level upper trof will finally jump-start the sfc front and push it off to well south and east of the FA during Monday night. Pcpn will end Monday Evening the latest, followed by some CAA with residual moisture in the form of clouds && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...A slow moving cold front is forecast to come through on Monday. The surface boundary will be accompanied by a dry WNW mid level flow. Normally this is not conducive for significant rainfall and Monday appears to be no different. Tuesday will be the one day that high pressure wedges in from the north behind the front. By Wednesday the high moves offshore and return flow gets underway. Models are not in agreement regarding the pace at which this leads to cloudiness and rain chance. Will show a gradual trend through Wednesday into Wednesday night as usually with moisture advection slower solutions tend to be better ones. A more substantial cold front arrives late Thursday or Friday. Guidance varies considerably with the pattern aloft casting uncertainty regarding rain prospects with this stronger boundary. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12Z...Abundant low level moisture persists over the region with stratus/fog, not quite as dense as previous nights due to an increasing southerly wind. Some showers at present are passing just to the east of ILM. More showers are possible later today, but they should not pose much of a threat to aviation. Tonight, an increasing but still low chance for convection. Extended Outlook...Approaching cold front will bring increasing chances for showers and MVFR Sunday and Monday. VFR Tuesday. Showers possible Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Steady state conditions across the coastal waters this morning with south winds around ten knots or so. Winds will continue from the south or slightly southwest through the period courtesy of surface high pressure across the Western Atlantic. Speeds may increase ever so slightly later today and tonight. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Ahead of the cold front, looking at SW winds increasing to 15 to occasionally 20 kt by midday and continuing well into Sunday night before it`s passage or it`s temporary stall. Significant seas will build to 3 to 5 ft most locations and combining it with the wind field, SCEC conditions will be met. Looking at increasing coverage of showers late Sunday and Sunday night. After the passage of the cold front early Mon, pcpn will transition to stratiform light rains. For Mon thru Mon night, and after the CFP, winds will veer to the W to NW, then N to NE Monday night. The CAA surge lags well behind the front, and should affect the local waters Monday night with 15 to 20 kt speeds. Significant seas may temporarily drop back to 2 to 4 ft Monday but should see 3 to 5 ft again Mon night. The ESE ground swell at 9+ second periods will affect the FA thruout this period. Local wind driven waves will aid in pushing overall seas to once again SCEC thresholds Mon night. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Frontal passage on Monday will lead to a shift from W to NW winds. This front will be weak and so not expecting any surge of high pressure, cold air, or gusty winds. High pressure behind the front does not drive very far south as it progresses off the coast to our north heading into Tuesday. This turns winds to NE and then E with no significant change in wind speeds. The onshore flow direction however will allow for slightly larger seas. No headlines are planned at this time. Wind and waves may build at the end of the period or just beyond with the approach of the next front, which will be much stronger. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43

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