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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 041748
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S TODAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHARPLY COLDER
AIR INVADING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXCEPTIONALLY WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND CLIMBING. ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO WIND GUST MAGNITUDE WITH A GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH NOTED
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COASTAL
INTERIOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE RESULTANT EDGE TRACKING
SWIFTLY NE AND WILL HOLD ONTO ISOLATED -RW NE INTERIOR ZONES. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...A MILD OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS LIKELY
AND COASTAL FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WILL
RULE THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE UNITED STATES. SPLIT FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...WITH UPPER FLOW FROM THE SW TO START THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHICH STARTS AT THU DAYBREAK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND EVEN PACIFIC MOISTURE
PROVIDED IT DOES NOT SCOUR OUT WHEN CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIER
THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPS THU ALONG WITH PARTLY OR VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE NORTHERN STREAM...DROPPING ACROSS THE U.S. FROM
CANADA...WILL BE PUSHING A SFC COLD/ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD.
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THIS NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD/ARCTIC FRONT...WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS
OF THE ILM CWA. THE MAIN SWATH OF PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CFP
STARTING LATE MORNING THU...AND CONTINUING THU NITE BEFORE ENDING
MIDDAY FRI AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE.

NO DRAMATIC SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THUS WILL
ACTUALLY RELY ON OVERRUNNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE VERY SHALLOW
ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHES UNDER THE MILD/WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPS AFTER
FROPA WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY COME LATE THU THRU THU NIGHT BEFORE
LEVELING OFF SOMEWHAT DURING FRI. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OR ROUND
OF MIXED WINTRY PCPN DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS...MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAYS 74-76 WITHIN THE ILM CWA. THE COLD AIR DEPTH AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR OF WHETHER IP WILL BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE PCPN...AND ALSO THE SFC TEMP ITSELF. SREF
INDICATES A CHANCE FOR SLEET ALONG WITH FREEZING RAIN FOR A
PORTION OF THE ILM CWA. WITH A GOOD 2-3 DAYS OF SFC TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...WILL HOLD OFF WITH THE MENTIONING OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXING IN...LET ALONE ANY ACCRETION. IF
ANYTHING...A TRACE OF IP MAY OCCUR BEFORE MELTING COME FRIDAY
DAYBREAK.

AS FOR FRI MAX TEMPS AND SAT MORNING MINS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE
HIER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE. 850MB PROGGED
TEMPS BARELY BREAK 0 DEGREES DURING FRIDAY...AND EVEN STAY ABOVE 0
DEGREES FOR MUCH OF FRI NITE. THIS ILLUSTRATING HOW SHALLOW IN
DEPTH THIS SFC BASED ARCTIC AIRMASS IS TO BECOME. EVEN PROGGED
925 MB TEMPS...ALSO HOVER AROUND 0 DEGREES FRI NITE. THE AREA MAY
BE SUBJECT TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE FRI NITE AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND THE SFC PG RELAXES...ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO 20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...THE LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA WILL
INITIALLY BE GOVERNED BY THE UPPER TROF THAT HAS AMPLIFIED
SOMEWHAT ALLOWING THE ARCTIC FRONT FROM EARLY FRIDAY TO PUSH
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS AND ALSO SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAT INTO SUN...THE FA WILL
BE UNDER AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MODERATING QUICKLY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL STARTING FROM DAYTIME
MAXES DURING SUNDAY. SHOULD BE A PCPN-FREE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY TO MID WEEK
PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK...WANT TO FLATTEN THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE
UPPER TROF PLAGUING THE FA...AND ONCE AGAIN SPLIT THE UPPER FLOW.
MODELS WANT TO BRING BACK A MILDER AND MOIST AIRMASS TO THE REGION
USING THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO SOURCES. MAINLY THE
LATTER...GULF OF MEXICO. MAX/MIN TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO NORMS
THIS PERIOD WITH CLOUDINESS LIKELY LIMITING ITS UPWARD ASCENT NEXT
WEEK. WILL INCLUDE MAINLY SILENT 20 POPS BUT AT LEAST TEMPS WILL BE
TOO MILD FOR ANY WINTRY WX REGIMES ACROSS THE ILM CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/LIFR
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCRE DUE TO SEA FOG. CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TO IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG RETURNS. ON THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE TO
AFFECT ANY TERMINALS. MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR WILL CONTINUE AT KCRE TODAY
AS SEA FOG PERSISTS...THOUGH WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE AS PASSING INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS STREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE YET AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR
AS LOW CIGS AND FOG RETURNS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOB 10 KTS. ON THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS MUCH STRONGER OVER LAND THAN WATER DUE TO
CHILLY SST VALUES. SEAS 3-5 FEET MAINLY IN 7 SECOND FRESH SE SWELL
AND A MODERATE SW CHOP. MARINE FOG STILL A HAZARD AND WILL REMAIN
SO OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY MAINLY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT THU...WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
TO STRONG SCA THRESHOLDS AT 20 TO 30 KT AFTER ITS PASSAGE DURING
THU EVENING AND NIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO DAYTIME FRI
BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ELONGATES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FRI NITE. DIRECTIONS WILL VEER TO THE N TO
NE AFTER FROPA. AT THE PEAK OF THE CAA DURING THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...AND COMBINED WITH THE TIGHTENED SFC PG...WIND GUSTS SHOULD
BREACH 35+ KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCALLY MILDER
SSTS...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. IE...THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BE RULED BY LOCALLY PRODUCED AND MERGING WIND
DRIVEN WAVES. WILL HAVE A LIMITED FETCH TO WORK WITH...RESULTING
IN A DECENT RANGE OF SEAS...LOWEST AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND UP
TO 5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF CAPE
ROMAINE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...FINALLY...AND I MEAN FINALLY...A BRIEF
REPRIEVE TO THE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS FORECAST FOR THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC MODERATES AS IT POSITIONS
ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD COME DAYTIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS TO
DROP BELOW 10 KT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 3
FT...AS A PSEUDO GROUND SWELL FROM THE NE-E BECOMES THE DOMINATE
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS. PSEUDO...BECAUSE THE
DOMINANT PERIODS EXHIBITED BY THIS SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8
SECONDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ054-056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110.

MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL