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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 012006
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
406 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front will waver along the coast through this
weekend, with shower and thunderstorm chances becoming confined
to the immediate coast. Weak high pressure will build in with
drier weather forecast early next week. The official NHC forecast
continues to bring Hurricane Matthew into the Bahamas on Wednesday,
bringing increasing waves and a heightened rip current risk to the
local beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 400 PM Saturday...A bit difficult to definitively identify
the location of the cold front this aftn, especially as it has
blended with a weak sea breeze, but appears to be aligned along
the Grand Strand, and then up just west of Wilmington and into the
southern portions of the MHX CWA. This is based off cloud cover
and a sharp dew point gradient. Along and east of this front,
moisture is much higher (PWAT gradient over an inch from east to
west) so clouds are prevalent and a few showers have developed.
Will maintain SCHC POP through this evening, but the majority of
this activity will be diurnally forced and will wane after dark.
Well inland, even cloud cover will be difficult to develop due to
the much drier air, and because of this, highs inland, behind the
cold front, are warmer than those along the immediate coast.

This front should push at least completely off the coast before
stalling tonight in response to the slow NE ejection, finally, of
the upper low across the OH Valley. This will allow drier air to
filter all the way to the coast, and any overnight shower activity
should remain primarily offshore. Weak mid-level impulses may be
enough to waver the front back to the west at times, so have
maintained SCHC POP along primarily the Cape Fear coast through the
overnight, but coverage will be limited at best. Mins tonight will
drop well into the 60s with even some upper 50s like west of i-95.
Much warmer temperatures are again expected at the coast, upper 60s.
These are more in line with the much cooler MAV numbers which
performed well last night in a similar air mass.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 400 PM Saturday...Anomalous upper low across the OH Valley
will, finally, eject slowly to the NE through the short term,
weakning and moving out of New England by the end of the period.
This will finally allow the cold front which has been plaguing this
area to push offshore, allowing drier and slightly cooler air to
filter all the way to the coast. While Sunday will still feature the
front wavering in the vicinity, by Monday it should lift enough to
the E/NE to bring drier weather to the coast as well. Will note that
the NAM keeps the front closer and has a wave of low pressure
develop with some showers on Monday, but this has been overdoing the
precip today and the GFS is preferred. This suggests gradually
lowering pop to silent through early week with continued nice fall
weather inland, and improving to seasonable norms at the coast.
Highs both days will still rise into the 80s, warmest inland, with
lows falling into the 50s inland, 60s at the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 400 PM Saturday...High pressure will continue to build
into the area Tuesday into Wednesday which will allow for fairly
dry conditions inland for early to mid-week. As for the coastal
areas, onshore flow will continue to provide available low level
moisture for isolated showers each day. For the rest of the
forecast period, confidence remains low as all eyes remain on
Hurricane Matthew and it`s projected track. As disagreement
continues with the latest guidance, have only tweaked the
forecast for now, keeping with the potential for marine threats
at this point for increased waves, rip currents and minor coastal
flooding. High temperatures in the upper 70`s will continue
through the week, with overnight lows in the mid 60`s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 17Z...There is a stationary front located just along the
coastal counties...about 20 miles or so inland from the water. Dew
point temps are higher just to the east of the front and somewhat
drier behind the front. For KILM...KCRE and KMYR I will leave
mention of vcsh in the afternoon and early evening period as I
cannot rule out some isolated showers around the area to the east
of the front. For KLBT and KFLO they are in the drier air mass so
will not have any mention of showers. Overall looking at vfr
conditions through the afternoon and evening hours with mvfr in
vsby after 09z for the coastal terminals. Sunday is looking VFR as
front slides off the coast and drier air mass covers the region.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR except for morning vsby
restrictions due to fog. Chance shower coastal terminals through
Sunday and on Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 pm Saturday...Today`s cold front continues to waver
just inland from the waters, but will likely migrate back to the
SE tonight to stall over the coastal waters. This leaves continued
SE winds through this evening at 10-15 kts before easing and
shifting to the NW late behind this front. Seas have been around 3
ft through all the waters, slightly higher near the 20nm boundary,
and this is expected to continue into Sunday as a 2-3 ft 10 sec SE
swell and 2 ft southerly wind wave persist. As the front moves
offshore tonight, renewed showers with isolated tstms are possible
overnight, but total coverage and intensity is expected to remain
light.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Saturday...Cold front along the coast will stall and
waver across the coastal waters Sunday before finally pushing
offshore Monday as high pressure ridges down from New England. This
will keep winds Sunday light and variable, before shifting to the NW
and then increasing within a NE surge to 15 kts late Monday. Seas
will feature a 2-3 ft/8sec SE swell both days, but will become
increasingly wind-wave dominated, rising from 2-3 ft to 3-5 ft by
the end of the period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Saturday...Small Craft Advisory possible by midweek.
North-northeasterly winds will continue through the
period, increasing to around 15 to 20 kts Tuesday into Wednesday.
Wednesday evening, winds increase to around 25 kts in the outer
waters. As for seas, 3 to 5 ft on Tuesday will shift to 4 to
6fters on Wednesday,with higher seas in the outer waters possible.
Things may change as we continue to monitor the track of Hurricane
Matthew, but will continue to monitor swell from the system.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MAC