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400
FXUS62 KILM 141743
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
143 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will
dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Synoptic pattern remains essentially the same through the near
term period perhaps a slightly stronger ridge to the west
Tuesday. For this afternoon lower pops remain in place near the
sea breeze then a shift inland with activity that develops in
the lee of the mountains then drifts east before dying. For
Tuesday it appears a sea breeze shower kind of day with the band
moving well inland during the afternoon hours. Regarding
temperatures nothing really stands out with highs a couple of
degrees either side of 90 and lows generally in the middle 70s.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Similar setup Wednesday as Tuesday with an inland lee trough and
Bermuda sfc high pressure offshore. The high nudges westwards
midweek, allowing for a slight uptick in southerly gradient
winds. Rain chances at 50-60% are a bit above climo due to the
best deep layer moisture of any day this week, along with the
typical forcing mechanisms of the sea breeze, lee trough and
daytime sfc heating. High temps are right at normal for this
time of year...highs around 90 degrees most areas with heat
indices maxing out close to 100 degrees.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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PoPs in the chance range each day this period with a fairly
steady synoptic pattern of weak ridging aloft coming in from the
south, an inland thermal trough, and Bermuda high pressure. Of
note is the increasing heat risk through the week, with
conditions very close to around Heat Advisory criteria each day;
highest heat risk is over the weekend.
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.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The latest aviation forecast this afternoon is rather
straightforward in nature. VFR conditions will prevail perhaps
interrupted this afternoon by convection inland. For significant
fog and or stratus development Tuesday morning used a pattern
very similar to this mornings observations with deeper/longer
IFR restrictions in LBT and in place but not as long in FLO.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening showers/storms and early
morning fog/stratus.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tuesday...A typical synoptic summer pattern will be in
place through the period for the marine community. Winds will
be from the south/southeast essentially sea breeze driven as the
inland/Piedmont trough is very weak and arguably non existent
at times. Significant seas will be 1-3 feet at most.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Winds consistently out of the
S to SW this period with Bermuda high pressure offshore and
daily sea breezes with winds up to 15-20 kt at times, but mostly
in the 10-15 kt range. Seas will average 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft at
times starting Thursday night as 7-8 second SE swell builds
slightly.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MAS/SHK