Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271727 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm late summer conditions will prevail through the weekend. The chance of showers will increase as well, as moisture from the tropics moves across the area early next week. A strong cold front is expected to move across the region late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM Saturday...No changes to the ongoing forecast as mainly clear skies continue over the forecast area. The former circulation of Fiona south of Bermuda contained winds near 35 mph east of the center per aircraft measurement last night, so it will be interesting to see what transpires today as this feature moves west toward the Carolinas taking in the dry air aloft. The previous forecast discussion follows. A gleaming start to Saturday shaping up with a clear early morning view of a waning crescent moonrise, signaling clear skies to the east. A surface ridge axis positioned SW to NE across the area was resulting in a relaxed pressure and wind regime. Vapor movies shows an upper ridge north of the region with an embedded impulse currently positioned across eastern VA and the Delmarva coast. Vad Wind Profile this morning shows 30-40 KT mid- level NE flow, which will usher deepening H7 moisture today. As this impulse is driven SW today, a shower or TSTM may pop over Bladen or Robeson county in the middle afternoon, spreading SW into the SC interior in the late afternoon. Convection may linger tonight along the I-95 corridor as a secondary upper wave transits the interior overnight. Maximums above normal today, middle 90s over the deeper interior and lower 90s across the coastal interior in a light onshore wind. Min temps daybreak Sunday 71-74, 75-77 at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Primary headline this period is a transition to a tropical influence as the circulation of former Fiona drifts landward toward the Cape Fear region late in the period Monday night into Tuesday. This feature will be watched closely over the next few days. The other tropical item of note remains arrival of long period swell from the Gaston wind-field on Sunday. Wave amplitude will remain low, but could build to 2 ft every 13-14 seconds Monday, prompting an significant rip current risk. Pop values increase gradually through the period as the tropical influence does so, especially late in the period as PWAT values begin to notably rise. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Increasing tropical moisture across the area along with persistent on shore flow will produce an increase in shwrs/tstms through mid week. Looks like the combination of moisture remnants from Fiona along with tropical wave/low reaching up from the south, as well as, weakening ridge moving north away from Carolinas will produce plenty of clouds and more widespread shower activity especially along and just off the coast on Tues into Wed. GFS shows greatest pcp water values up over 2 inches located over area Tues night into Wed. By Thurs this moisture should be pushed off to the east as mid to upper trough pushes a cold front into the Carolinas. The winds will shift around to the N-NW on back end of tropical wave/low which may help to advect in some drier air but overall expect front to produce enhanced convective activity, mainly farther south over South Carolina by Friday. Summerlike temps in the mid 80s to 90 should take a dip heading into end of period down into the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through tonight other than some potential short duration vsby restrictions in tstms inland this evening. Stratus is possible overnight. A weak back door type cold front is slowly shifting southward this aftn, and will weaken as it drops across the CWA tonight. This front is the driver for some showers/tstms to the north, and as it pushes southward a few of these are expected to approach the inland terminals. Have included VCTS, but not enough confidence in coverage or timing for a TEMPO or any restrictions attm. Coastal terminals are expected to remain dry today. Winds through the evening will be generally from the E/SE around 10 kts. As the front pushes across the area tonight, winds will return to the NE at around 5 kts, with subtle increase late in the overnight possible. This will likely prevent much in the way of fog, but soundings suggest stratus is possible, mostly likely at LBT, which is more typical with a setup like this. Some fog is possible at FLO where the front will be slow to drop through. Any stratus will lift after daybreak Sunday with VFR returning under continued light NE winds. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Increasing chance of TEMPO sub VFR each day as tropical moisture/shower potential increases through Tuesday. VFR Wed/Thu. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM Saturday...Latest obs show combined seas in the 4 ft range. The early morning update did raise seas by a foot to cover this, so no further changes were needed with the mid-morning update. Relevant portion of previous discussion follows: Light winds and manageable seas prevail today and tonight. Seas of 3-4 feet slightly elevated in ESE waves 2-3 ft every 11 seconds originating from circulation of former Fiona. This should slowly decay to 9 seconds overnight. Light onshore winds today and tonight. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Decent marine conditions will prevail this period in terms of welcoming light winds, generally NE-E Sunday and Monday. Increasing swell waves may elevate sea heights to 4 ft Monday night, and an increase in showers and TSTMS can be expected, as a tropical disturbance, and what was once Fiona, approaches Cape Fear late Monday night. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts regarding this feature. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Diminishing longer period E-SE swells, up to 14 seconds, will mix in with E-NE wind waves through the period. Overall expect winds in the 10 to 15 kt range and seas 2 to 4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...JDW MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ

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