Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010732 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 332 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stalled front will dissipate across the Carolinas today leaving a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. A new cold front will move towards the coast this weekend. This front will stall just north of the area through the first half of next week as Bermuda High pressure strengthens offshore, creating above normal temperatures and afternoon thunderstorm chances.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Friday...Showers are moving from SW to NE across the Cape Fear region early this morning. This activity is mainly light although some in-cloud lightning is occasionally evident. Nothing else in the way of convection is evident on radar or expected though sunrise, although the odd coastal shower cannot be ruled out. At the upper levels an H5 longwave trough will lift off to the northeast, making the pattern aloft more zonal by the end of the period. Guidance and water vapor imagery show an embedded short wave trough moving through early this morning, with perhaps another one moving through this afternoon. Model soundings show a very moist column developing today, with P/W values approaching 2 inches late this morning before the upper levels begin drying out again later this afternoon as the pattern becomes more zonal. At the surface a diffuse stationary front over the inland Carolinas continues to dissipate as high pressure maintains its hold over the western Atlantic. A cold front will descend SE towards the forecast area during this period. For today expect scattered, mainly diurnally driven convection with a moderately unstable airmass developing this afternoon and evening within a very moist column. Foci for convection include the diurnal sea-breeze circulation, residual outflow boundries, the inland trough/dissipating front and any short waves that happen by. SPC again has our whole area in a marginal risk category for severe weather although their discussion does not sound overly bullish on the possibility. Temperatures today will be seasonal, with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to around 90 well inland. Lows will be in the mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Friday...A zonal pattern aloft will characterize the weekend, with a number of weak embedded short wave troughs transiting from west to east through the period. At the surface a diffuse stationary front over the interior Carolinas will dissipate as a cold front drops slowly southeast towards the forecast area. However, the front will stall and remain to our north through the weekend. Flow at the surface will be south to southwesterly through the period, keeping the lowest levels moist and very warm. Moist low levels plus a marginally to moderately unstable airmass will keep in the chance for mainly diurnally driven convection in through the short term, with any passing short waves further enhancing development. Temperatures will run right around climo through the weekend for highs, although overnight lows will continue to run a bit warm for this time of year.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Friday...The guidance continues to struggle with coverage and placement of convection in the extended, as this remains the case this morning. In recent days, the models have been pushing the heavy rainfall back a day, every day, so that it never really gets into the short term. This is still the case tonight, and causes decreasing confidence in heavy rainfall any day of the extended. While it is nearly certain a front will waver just north of the area, how this will impact rain locally is more questionable. The front will likely make its closest waver on Monday /Independence Day/ which would suggest Monday being the most unsettled of the period. However, even as the front lifts back to the north in response to thickness increase from the SE, mid-level impulses combined with a humid and unstable atmosphere in the presence of what will likely be several residual boundaries including the sea breeze and piedmont trough, will support above climo aftn convection chances. Unfortunately, with uncertainty in the placement of the front and timing of any impulses aloft, hard to do any better than blanket mid-chc pop, except Monday when the inherited LKLY will remain. By Thursday, convection chances should wane at least back to typical summertime values, due mostly to some drier air moving into the area from the north than any significant change in temperatures or the synoptic pattern.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...Showers and thunderstorms have moved out of the area for the night. Outside of MVFR conditions in the next couple hours in association with debris clouds...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period except for some MVFR fog toward sunrise and perhaps short term MVFR/IFR conditions with thunderstorms after 18z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Possible brief MVFR/IFR from scattered convection each day. Possible brief MVFR from fog or low ceilings each morning. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...A broad area of high pressure over the western Atlantic in combination with a dissipating front inland over the Carolinas will maintain a modest, generally south to southwesterly flow over the waters through the near term. Expect winds in the 10 to 15 kt range, with gusts up to around 20 kts this afternoon. Seas will range from 2 to 4 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Winds will be mainly southwesterly through the short term as high pressure maintains its hold over the western Atlantic. A cold front will drop south towards the waters through the weekend, but will not make it to the forecast area during this time period. Expect winds maintain in the 10 to 15 kt range, with seas of around 3 ft through the weekend. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...Steady SW winds through the period as the waters remain entrenched between a stationary front to the north and high pressure anchored well offshore. The gradient will be consistent, so winds are forecast to increase only slightly from Monday into Tuesday, reaching 15-20 kts Tuesday after being 10-15 kts Monday. A weak 8 sec SE swell of 1-2 ft will exist each day, but the wave spectrum will be dominated by an amplifying SW 5-6 sec wave of 5-6 ft. These two wave groups combined will produce seas of 3-4 ft Monday, rising to 4-5 ft Tuesday, with an average period likely closer to the wind wave than the swell. The combination of increasing winds and seas may require a SCEC on Tuesday, but attm no statements are expected for the Independence Day holiday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK MARINE...REK/JDW

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