Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 051033 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 633 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THUS...COULD ONLY GO WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE POPS THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY OCCURRING ALONG A PINNED SEABREEZE. THE W TO WNW DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FLOW ALOFT...WILL AID THE HEATING PROCESS ACROSS THE SFC OF THE FA TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HOTTER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS WIDESPREAD 90S FOR MAX TEMPS...INCLUDING THE AREA BEACHES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY BE PINNED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT...THIS MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED THE COUNTIES MAINLY EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST IN THIS NEW HEAT ADVISORY. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...THUS KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN CHECK AND JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS. THE ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA THAT SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INLAND...TO AROUND 80 AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STAGE MAY BE SET FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING COMES OVERNIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED. MOST LOCALES SHOULD END UP WITH SOME NEEDED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS AS THE FORCING LOOKS QUITE STRONG. WITH THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MAY ALSO BE QUITE UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PUSH IN FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ANOTHER FAIRLY HEALTHY IMPULSE ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... ANY COOL AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORT TERM FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SEEMS THAT MOISTURE RETURN WANTS TO GET UNDERWAY ALREADY BY SUNDAY. SOME MODELS WANT TO BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE PICTURE BUT GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO OUR WEST THIS MAY BE OVERDONE EARLY ON. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH AND FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW TO FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY FROM BR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOWARDS SUNRISE. IF WINDS GO CALM AND HAVE A CHANCE TO DECOUPLE THAN FOG WILL BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM TO AVIATORS THIS AM. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE DOMINATED BY THIN/OPAQUE CIRRUS ALONG WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING EITHER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR ALONG THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SFC TROF THEN MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE INLAND TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WATERS WILL BE AFFECTED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA COASTS...AND WEAK TROFFINESS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS. A MODEST SFC PG WILL RESULT IN SW-WSW WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THRUOUT THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 5 TO 7 SECONDS. CONVECTION THREAT TODAY THRU TONIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... WIND AND SEAS BUILDING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY. WE MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS SUCH CONDITIONS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST ZONES. THE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT ITS DECELERATING NATURE WILL NOT MAKE FOR THE CLEANEST OF FROPAS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN AS A RESULT AND SOME SLIGHT PREFRONTAL VEERING MAY OCCUR. THE SHARPER WIND SHIFT THEN COMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND WAVES MAY STEEPEN EVEN AS OVERALL DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT CONTINUES TO DROP OFF. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LEAVES BEHIND A VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND. PINNING DOWN A WIND DIRECTION AT THIS TIME IS RATHER TRICKY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL ALMOST BE CERTAINLY BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS. SEAS WILL THUSLY SETTLE TO NEAR MINIMAL VALUES FOR THE OCEAN AT 2 FT OR LESS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056. NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH/CRM MARINE...MJC/REK/III/SHK

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