Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250523 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 123 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...A MID-UPPER S/W TROF IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...TO OFF THE SC/GA COASTS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ITS REFLECTION AT THE SFC WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE SAT. MAINLY THIN TO OPAQUE CI AND HIGH AC TO ACCOMPANY THIS MID TO UPPER S/W TROF. CURRENT SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE RUNNING A GOOD CATEGORY...POSSIBLY UP TO 2...ABOVE THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON USING CURRENT TRENDS DERIVED FROM HOURLY SFC OBS FROM LATE THIS AFTN UP TO NOW. MODELS DO DEPICT THE SFC TROF...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL APPLY THE WEAK CAA AND LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS AFTER THE SFC TROF PASSAGE ACROSS THE FA. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT SATURDAYS LOWS AT OR AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS PRIOR TO THE SFC TROF PASSAGE WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND MAY EVEN DECOUPLE FOR SEVERAL HRS UP UNTIL THE SFC TROF PASSAGE. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...LOOKING AT NW-N 2 TO 4 MPH WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS- IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING AS LOWER DEWPOINTS REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN WINDS ARE VIRTUALLY CALM. THUS...HAVE ADDED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. LIFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT KLBT. LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO DEVELOP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF. AHEAD OF THIS SFC TROF...W-NW WINDS MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 5 KT. THIS SFC TROF PASSAGE TO OCCUR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT WILL YIELD NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 15 KT LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED VERY WELL BY GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY WITH WAVEWATCH3 DURING THE PAST 24+ HRS. PARTICULARLY THE 1-2+ FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 10+ SECOND PERIODS. THIS WAS DEFINITELY FELT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SURF BREAKS WERE OBSERVED AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PRODUCED A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BEACHES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FT OR LESS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR/RJD

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