Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 012006 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 406 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front will waver along the coast through this weekend, with shower and thunderstorm chances becoming confined to the immediate coast. Weak high pressure will build in with drier weather forecast early next week. The official NHC forecast continues to bring Hurricane Matthew into the Bahamas on Wednesday, bringing increasing waves and a heightened rip current risk to the local beaches.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 400 PM Saturday...A bit difficult to definitively identify the location of the cold front this aftn, especially as it has blended with a weak sea breeze, but appears to be aligned along the Grand Strand, and then up just west of Wilmington and into the southern portions of the MHX CWA. This is based off cloud cover and a sharp dew point gradient. Along and east of this front, moisture is much higher (PWAT gradient over an inch from east to west) so clouds are prevalent and a few showers have developed. Will maintain SCHC POP through this evening, but the majority of this activity will be diurnally forced and will wane after dark. Well inland, even cloud cover will be difficult to develop due to the much drier air, and because of this, highs inland, behind the cold front, are warmer than those along the immediate coast. This front should push at least completely off the coast before stalling tonight in response to the slow NE ejection, finally, of the upper low across the OH Valley. This will allow drier air to filter all the way to the coast, and any overnight shower activity should remain primarily offshore. Weak mid-level impulses may be enough to waver the front back to the west at times, so have maintained SCHC POP along primarily the Cape Fear coast through the overnight, but coverage will be limited at best. Mins tonight will drop well into the 60s with even some upper 50s like west of i-95. Much warmer temperatures are again expected at the coast, upper 60s. These are more in line with the much cooler MAV numbers which performed well last night in a similar air mass.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 400 PM Saturday...Anomalous upper low across the OH Valley will, finally, eject slowly to the NE through the short term, weakning and moving out of New England by the end of the period. This will finally allow the cold front which has been plaguing this area to push offshore, allowing drier and slightly cooler air to filter all the way to the coast. While Sunday will still feature the front wavering in the vicinity, by Monday it should lift enough to the E/NE to bring drier weather to the coast as well. Will note that the NAM keeps the front closer and has a wave of low pressure develop with some showers on Monday, but this has been overdoing the precip today and the GFS is preferred. This suggests gradually lowering pop to silent through early week with continued nice fall weather inland, and improving to seasonable norms at the coast. Highs both days will still rise into the 80s, warmest inland, with lows falling into the 50s inland, 60s at the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 400 PM Saturday...High pressure will continue to build into the area Tuesday into Wednesday which will allow for fairly dry conditions inland for early to mid-week. As for the coastal areas, onshore flow will continue to provide available low level moisture for isolated showers each day. For the rest of the forecast period, confidence remains low as all eyes remain on Hurricane Matthew and it`s projected track. As disagreement continues with the latest guidance, have only tweaked the forecast for now, keeping with the potential for marine threats at this point for increased waves, rip currents and minor coastal flooding. High temperatures in the upper 70`s will continue through the week, with overnight lows in the mid 60`s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 17Z...There is a stationary front located just along the coastal counties...about 20 miles or so inland from the water. Dew point temps are higher just to the east of the front and somewhat drier behind the front. For KILM...KCRE and KMYR I will leave mention of vcsh in the afternoon and early evening period as I cannot rule out some isolated showers around the area to the east of the front. For KLBT and KFLO they are in the drier air mass so will not have any mention of showers. Overall looking at vfr conditions through the afternoon and evening hours with mvfr in vsby after 09z for the coastal terminals. Sunday is looking VFR as front slides off the coast and drier air mass covers the region. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR except for morning vsby restrictions due to fog. Chance shower coastal terminals through Sunday and on Wed. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 pm Saturday...Today`s cold front continues to waver just inland from the waters, but will likely migrate back to the SE tonight to stall over the coastal waters. This leaves continued SE winds through this evening at 10-15 kts before easing and shifting to the NW late behind this front. Seas have been around 3 ft through all the waters, slightly higher near the 20nm boundary, and this is expected to continue into Sunday as a 2-3 ft 10 sec SE swell and 2 ft southerly wind wave persist. As the front moves offshore tonight, renewed showers with isolated tstms are possible overnight, but total coverage and intensity is expected to remain light. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM Saturday...Cold front along the coast will stall and waver across the coastal waters Sunday before finally pushing offshore Monday as high pressure ridges down from New England. This will keep winds Sunday light and variable, before shifting to the NW and then increasing within a NE surge to 15 kts late Monday. Seas will feature a 2-3 ft/8sec SE swell both days, but will become increasingly wind-wave dominated, rising from 2-3 ft to 3-5 ft by the end of the period. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM Saturday...Small Craft Advisory possible by midweek. North-northeasterly winds will continue through the period, increasing to around 15 to 20 kts Tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday evening, winds increase to around 25 kts in the outer waters. As for seas, 3 to 5 ft on Tuesday will shift to 4 to 6fters on Wednesday,with higher seas in the outer waters possible. Things may change as we continue to monitor the track of Hurricane Matthew, but will continue to monitor swell from the system.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...MAC

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