Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301135 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 735 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A wedge of high pressure will weaken and move offshore today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to overspread the area late this afternoon and this evening and then persist overnight and into Friday ahead of a warm front. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe late tonight into Friday. A cold front will follow later Friday or Friday night. The weekend should be dry as high pressure takes hold. Low pressure early next week will bring more showers and thunderstorms. Brief high pressure may be followed by another round of showers and thunderstorms next Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...The wedge of high pressure remains across the area this morning under weak ridging aloft. A slow moving storm system currently in the Mississippi Valley will move east today. This in turn will weaken the surface high pressure along with the mid level ridge. High resolution models are very consistent on some convection developing just to the west of our CWA this afternoon on what will be the convergence area of the retreating ridge and stronger southerly flow with the main storm system. There is about 400 J/KG of CAPE so a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Most of the area should remain dry however. For later tonight, more convergence showers should develop and a streamer off the Atlantic could advect across. The "main" line of convection will move across just after 1200 UTC Friday. No real storyline regarding temperatures other than readings have warmed slightly for today. I also jogged up morning lows for Friday as a breezy, showery scenario with early lows takes place. Finally regarding severe potential, which SPC has placed most of our area in a marginal risk in the latest day one outlook, as per their discussion, difficult to pinpoint the risk but overall feel with the stronger wind fields arriving just after 12z Friday, that will be the window of greatest threat for our area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...A broad area of low pressure will be moving across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians and Mid- Atlantic states Fri with a complex frontal system trailing south. A warm front and its associated isentropic lift will be moving across the Forecast Area Fri with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. We may become dry slotted Fri ahead of a cold front which will move across the area later Fri or Fri night. High pressure will then build from the N Sat and Sat night as a mid- level ridge builds across the Southeast. There continues to be a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Fri. The timing of this system should help to mitigate the risk. However, 0-6 km effective bulk shear values will be in the 40 to 50 kt range and instability does increase with mixed layer CAPE values peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg. Low level jetting increases to 40 to 45 kt. Thick clouds and rainfall should help to mitigate the instability, especially early on, but a period of dry slotting may allow clouds to thin during Fri which could support greater instability and increase the severe risk. Highs on Fri will be in the mid and upper 70s with lower 70s at the south facing beaches. Any significant breaks in the clouds may allow temps to surge into the lower 80s Fri afternoon. Lows late Fri night will drop into the mid and upper 50s with around 60 at the beaches. Highs on Sat will range from the mid to upper 70s with a few 80 degree readings possible across inland locations. It will be a little cooler Sat night, mainly lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Strong low pressure will be pulling NE across the Canadian Maritimes Sun as high pressure becomes well established across the Carolinas. The center of the high will move E of the area Sun night as next in series of potent southern stream systems across the Ark-La-Tex Mon moves east across the southern Appalachians and Carolinas Tue, then accelerates to the NE and intensifies offshore of the Mid- Atlantic states late Tue and Tue night. Yet another area of low pressure and its associated frontal system will approach the area Wed night with its greatest impacts across the eastern Carolinas expected Thu/Thu night. The system early in the week has the potential to bring strong to severe thunderstorms. This very progressive pattern is expected to bring rainfall, some of which will be significant. After a dry Sun and Sun night, Pops will be increasing Mon with the most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms likely Mon night with a decreasing trend on Tue. A return to dry weather Tue night through Wed night may very well be followed by more showers and thunderstorms Thu/Thu night. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Some stratus around this morning near KLBT and KILM primarily. Will add scattered stratus below 1 kft at KILM and tempo IFR ceiling at KLBT through about 14z. Expect scattered to broken cumulus and stratocumulus to develop as heating gets underway, at times ceilings will drop to MVFR. For later this afternoon and tonight, expect ceilings to lower with showers and thunderstorms increasing from SW to NE with the coastal terminals the last to experience widespread shower and thunderstorm activity very late in the valid TAF period. Expect ceilings and visibilities to drop to MVFR and IFR in rain. Extended outlook...MVFR to IFR conditions likely persisting into at least the first part of Fri. More showers and thunderstorms developing Mon and through Mon night will have the potential to produce flight restrictions.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 AM Thursday...A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all waters late tonight through Fri and into Fri night. Winds will continue to slowly relax through the morning hours allowing the seas to follow into a 2-4 foot range as the wedge of high pressure responsible for the conditions weakens and begins to retreat. Winds will increase once again late tonight from the southeast in a range of 15-20 knots and seas will follow well into small craft criteria by Friday morning. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will be ongoing at the start of the period and are expected to wind down Fri night. A broad area of low pressure will be moving across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states Fri with a complex frontal system trailing south. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be strong to possibly severe, will be ongoing at the start of the period as a warm front moves across the waters. The wind direction will be S, veering to SW Fri and then W and finally NW toward Sat morning with passage of the cold front. Winds will generally be NW Sat although winds will have a tendency to back ahead of reinforcing cold and dry push. Winds will then veer back to NW Sat eve and to NE overnight Sat. Wind speeds will be 20 to 25 kt Fri, diminishing to around 15 kt overnight Fri into Sat before diminishing further later Sat and Sat night as high pressure becomes firmly established. Seas will be 5 to 7 ft Fri, subsiding slowly to 3 to 5 ft Fri night due to backswell and then to 2 or 3 ft late Sat and Sat night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely developing Mon and continuing into Tue. Gusts to gale force can not be ruled out. Strong low pressure will be pulling NE across the Canadian Maritimes Sun as high pressure becomes well established across the Carolina waters. The center of the high will move E of the waters Sun night as next in series of potent southern stream systems across the Ark-La-Tex Mon moves east across the southern Appalachians and Carolinas Tue, then accelerates to the NE and intensifies offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states late Tue and Tue night. The worst of the marine conditions with the system early next week will come Mon afternoon, peaking Mon night and Tue morning. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be impacting the waters during this time. Sustained wind speeds will be up to 25 to 30 kt with higher gusts. The direction will be SSE to S on Mon, veering to SW Mon night and eventually to the W later Tue. Seas will be building Mon and peaking in the 6 to 9 ft range Mon night and early on Tue.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/SHK SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...RJD

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