Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250553 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 150 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will sweep south across the area tonight. Canadian high pressure will build over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front may bring a few brief showers to the region late Thursday or Thursday night. Above normal temperatures are expected into next weekend before a second cold front moves across the area Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1245 AM Tuesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: The front is still on-schedule with northerly winds now showing up along a line from Elizabeth City to Fayetteville. Temperatures have fallen quite near forecast lows across much of the ILM forecast area, but look for temperatures to jump up by 5 or more degrees when the front arrives due to mixing of the boundary layer. Cold advection should then slowly push lows down to 49-53 again by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...As a mid-level trough moves off the east coast, a deamplifying ridge axis will shift from the central plains to the Carolinas by Wednesday night. This will ensure a dry airmass remains in place with deep northwesterly flow, as surface high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic region. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be 8-10 degrees lower than today, with the coolest of the nights expected to be Tuesday night, with low to mid 40s away from the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Shortwave moving across the Great Lakes Thu and New England Fri will drag a cold front into the area Thu night. The southern end of the front is moisture starved and washed out. Dynamically there is not a lot going on with minimal troughing aloft. Widespread significant precip seems unlikely. Fropa timing is also less than optimal for generating convective rainfall. Will continue to carry slight chc pop, mainly for Thu night. Modified surface high builds over the area Fri and Sat before being pushed south by cold front dropping in from the north Sun morning. As with the front Thu night, forcing and moisture are limited and in all likelihood the front will pass dry. Mid level pattern, which is weakly amplified for the bulk of the forecast period, gains more amplification Sun into Mon. This helps spread cooler air over the region Mon as surface high builds in from the north. Temps above climo Thu-Sun will drop below climo on Mon. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Clear skies through the TAF cycle. Just a few lines in the TAFs to address a FROPA-induced wind shift as well as wind speed dropping off around sunset tonight as vertical mixing abates. Extended Outlook...VFR. Isolated showers Thursday and Thursday night.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1245 AM Tuesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: The cold front currently extends from near Elizabeth City to Fayetteville. Latest high-res models show it reaching Wrightsville Beach and Carolina Beach just before midnight, Oak Island by 1 AM, Myrtle Beach by 2 AM, and Georgetown by 3 AM. West-southwesterly winds out ahead of the front should average only 10 knots, but should increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt as cold air punches in behind the front. It doesn`t appear sustained wind speeds will reach 25 knots, so an `exercise caution` headline will be used rather than a Small Craft Advisory. Seas currently around 2 feet in a dominant 5-second period will increase by an additional 1-2 feet overnight in a building 3-4 second chop. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...The ridge of surface high pressure will build just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday night. The moderate gradient over the waters early Tuesday will weaken by early afternoon, allowing winds to diminish toward 15 knots. Winds will veer to the east by late Wednesday, and the gradient will continue to weaken through the period, allowing winds to fall off to around 10 knots by then. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Cold front approaching from the west Thu will induce southerly flow but lack of a strong gradient ahead of the front will keep speeds under 10 kt. Gradient post front is also weak with modified high pressure building in from the northwest. Offshore flow Fri will remain around 10 kt, veering to southwest Sat with speeds increasing to 10 to 15 kt late in the period. Seas around 2 ft Thu and Fri build to 2 to 3 ft later Sat. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/CRM SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MBB MARINE...REK/TRA/III is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.