Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280128 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 928 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clouds and showers will increase over the weekend as Tropical Depression 2 currently over the Bahamas, organizes into a Tropical Storm tonight and Saturday and tracks onshore across the central and southern SC Coasts on Sunday. This low will meander across both SC and NC Coasts through the early to middle portions of next week. As a result, expect an extended period of unsettled weather across the area through this Memorial Day Weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 800 PM Friday...Subsidence aloft across the FA, well ahead of the TD #2, has kept the CU field from developing in the vertical and hence the lack of any convection across the FA. The subsidence aloft will push further inland, with mainly clear skies covering the entire ILM CWA, other than ci/cs, from mid-evening thru atleast midnight. During the pre-dawn hours, expect low and middle level clouds begin working onshore. Any onshore movement to the pcpn will begin around or after daybreak Saturday. Progged PWs only reach around 1.25 inches at the coast by daybreak. Have updated the POP and Sky fields to accommodate the delay of the onshore deeper moisture in the form of clouds and pcpn. Min temps look in the ballpark with 60s inland to around 70 along the immediate coast. Previous....................................................... AS OF 330 PM Friday...An extensive cu field has developed this afternoon well inland of the coast. The coastal counties remain sunny behind an enhanced sea breeze circulation. More ambitious convective development beyond this point is being hampered by very dry air aloft. We can still expect a dry and warm afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The ridge axis of a broad area of high pressure over the western Atlantic is now bisecting the eastern Carolinas. This feature will slowly retreat to the north as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low near the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in intensity. Model guidance and ensembles are in very good accord with this scenario, including both track and intensity. At this time a hurricane hunter aircraft is in the air to determine the status and development of this system. The shifting of the ridge axis northward in combination with the movement of the low will allow present E to SE flow to back to the NE overnight. A consensus of guidance has temperatures bottoming out in the lower 60s inland with mid to upper 60s closer to the coast. Skies will become mainly clear overnight as diurnal cu fades with the sunset, but clouds will move back in overnight, starting with cirrus, as the low to our southeast approaches. Isolated showers are possible along the coast by daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 830 PM Thursday...The threat for Tropical Storm Conditions has been incorporated into the local forecasts, with mainly Horry and Georgetown Counties, both inland and coastal zones affected, as well as the adjacent coastal waters. See the latest array of Tropical Statements issued for the mentioned area. Previous........................................................ AS OF 330 PM Friday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat north of the eastern Carolinas as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low over the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in intensity. As mentioned in the Near Term discussion above, model guidance and ensembles continue to be in good accord with this scenario. Model soundings move deep layer moisture in after daybreak on Saturday morning. This will bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, especially along the coast, beginning on Saturday morning, with chances increasing through the remainder of the period as the low approaches the coast of SC. It is unlikely that winds associated with this system will be a concern through the short term as guidance continues to show that this feature will be weakly organized and slow to develop.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...Lingering low pressure/trough along the Carolina coast will keep some clouds and unsettled weather...especially along the coast. Kept mostly cloudy skies most places for most days, although models do seem a bit more optimistic with cloud cover and potential for rain inland. Looks like ridge will shift eastward as northern stream shortwave rides by on Monday, but then ridge builds back over the east coast with some minor weakness remaining. This could produce some increased subsidence and dry air aloft to help limit shwrs/tstms heading into the middle of next week, but gfs continues to show a fair amount of shwr activity. For now, will show higher chc of shwrs Mon into early Tues as low pressure lingers and then show a diminishing trend as ridging begins to build up through the SE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR conditions should prevail now through at least 09Z early Saturday morning as a deep dry air moves across the eastern Carolinas. Starting around 09Z mid and high level moisture will begin to increase in advance of a developing tropical storm that will be southeast of charleston but will impact the kmyr and kcre taf site the most at the end of the forecast period. Also possible will be the development of some low stratus due to late night boundary layer cooling. Any low clouds should burn off an hour or two after sunrise as the first band of showers associated with the offshore low approaches the coast beginning around 14Z Saturday. Extended Outlook...Occasional MVFR conditions in scattered to numerous showers and isolated t-storms Saturday night afternoon and overnight, mainly shifting inland for Sunday. Occasional MVFR with scattered showers Monday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 800 PM Friday...Sfc ridging to the w thru n overnight and the approach of TD #2 from the se...will begin to slowly tighten the sfc pg towards daybreak Sat...with 10 to occasionally 15 kt for wind speeds. The actual sfc pressure pattern will yield ne-e wind directions overnight. significant seas will begin to build after midnight...with seas running 3 to 4 ft by daybreak sat. A pseudo swell at 2 ft with Periods around 7 seconds will dominate over the 1 to 3 foot, 4 to 5 second period wind waves. Convection will begin to overspread the area waters from the SE toward daybreak Sat. Previous........................................................ AS OF 330 PM Friday...A broad area of high pressure over the western Atlantic will slowly retreat to the north as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low near the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in intensity. The shifting of the high northward in combination with the movement of the low will allow present easterly winds of around 10 kts to back to the NE overnight with little change in strength. Seas of 2 to 3 ft this afternoon will hover right around 3 ft by daybreak on Saturday. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 830 PM Thursday...The threat for Tropical Storm Conditions has been incorporated into the local marine forecasts, with the coastal waters from Little River Inlet south to South Santee River. See the latest array of Tropical Statements issued for the mentioned area. Previous....................................................... AS OF 330 PM Thursday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat north of the waters as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low over the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW to the coast of SC with little change in intensity. This will bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, along with gradually increasing winds and seas. At this point it is possible that winds associated with this system may be strong enough to warrant an advisory for seas reaching 6 ft at some point during the short term, but warnings are less likely as guidance still shows a weakly organized and slowly developing system. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Lingering low pressure/trough along the Carolina coast may produce some variability in winds but overall expect an onshore SE-E wind to continue but generally on the weaker side...about 5 to 10 kts. Swell should be just around or under 8 seconds with seas between 3 and 5 ft through Mon into Tues. Expect winds to remain light with seas diminishing as the effects of tropical low wane through mid week....down to 3 ft or less by Tues night into Wed.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ053>056. NC...None. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...dch/REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DRH

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