Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 010011 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 811 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...BASICALLY THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST WILL BE UNDER THE GUN THIS EVENING FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. THE PINNED SEA BREEZE AND THE COLD FRONT JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST PROVIDED THE NECESSARY SFC CONVERGENCE BY MID-AFTERNOON ONCE THE AVAILABLE CAPE WAS ACHIEVED BY THE DAYS INSOLATION. COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW COLLISIONS FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL SOLID 2 TO 4 HRS OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER LAND. BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU THE SAT PRE-DAWN HRS...WILL SEE NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TAKE CHARGE. AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE KEPT ATLEAST A CHANCE POP FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS YOU TRAVEL INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS WILL LOWER TO NO CHANCE BY THE TIME YOU REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WITH NO ROBUST MOVEMENT WITH THE ONGOING PCPN...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AND THUS HAVE ADDED THE HEAVY RAIN ATTRIBUTE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT MINS STILL LOOK AOK. PREVIOUS.................................................... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ELEMENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME DECENT COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOOD COVERAGE IS STILL ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR. I HAVE WALKED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADJUST FOR THIS. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WORKING ON THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BASICALLY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BY MY COUNT THIS IS THE FOURTH FRONT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS JULY. WHILE PROBABLY NOT A RECORD IT CERTAINLY SEEMS UNUSUAL. THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...DRIVEN INLAND BY THE SEABREEZE AND PUSHED BACK TOWARD THE COAST BY THE LATE NIGHT LANDBREEZE. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY WILL POKE DOWN INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES...PUNCHING A HOLE THE 500 MB RIDGE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE RISE TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN 40-50 MILES OF THE COAST...VERY NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT AND POTENTIAL SEABREEZE ZONE. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO PUSH STORMS EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEACHES. FARTHER INLAND FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN INTO THE DEEP DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE CAPPING AND VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) CONVECTION. HIGHS MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S COAST. FOR SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THE MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS...EVEN ALONG THE COAST WHERE 850-700 MB LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 50 PERCENT. HIGHS AGAIN MID 90S INLAND TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST. IN TERMS OF MODEL PREFERENCE...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS BETTER TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE-WISE THAN THE NAM AND HAS FEWER SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE 500 MB FLOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHINESS IN PLACE ON MONDAY THOUGH MODELS LOOK A BIT QUICKER IN SHUNTING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. HAVE PRESERVED THE INLAND/COASTAL GRADIENT BUT TWEAKED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO LIFT OUT A BIT FASTER ON TUESDAY SO RAINFALL MAY BE EVEN HARDER TO COME BY AND JUST ISOLATED POPS AREA-WIDE. WEDNESDAY ALSO LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ANY ENERGY IMPINGING UPON US FROM THE WEST TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THE CAROLINAS WILL THEN END UP IN A REGIME OF INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES THAT TEND TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE HINDERED BY THE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DEEPER MOISTURE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BE RELEGATED FOR JUST AFTER THE LONG TERM. THE MIDWEEK DAYS WHEREIN A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT SHOULD FEATURE SOME HEAT BUT SEEMINGLY NOT THE VERY HOT READINGS FOUND IN THE MEX MOS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF NC/SC AND HAS INTERACTED WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED KILM MAINLY WITH SOME VCTS AROUND KCRE. ACTIVITY STARTING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS NC AND INCREASING ACROSS SC...ESPECIALLY WELL SOUTH OF KMYR. WILL CARRY SHWRS AND TS AROUND THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WINDING DOWN AFTER 03Z. MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG BEING FORECASTED FOR COASTAL TERMINALS AND VFR FOR INLAND TERMINALS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS KLBT AND KFLO. FRONT HANGS OFF THE COAST FOR SATURDAY AND CAN SEE MORE SCATTERED SHOWER AND TS ACTIVITY AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS REGION WILL HELP FIRE A UP ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. MVFR ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE THE INLAND TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY. .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SW WINDS HAVE BEEN INFECTED BY OUTFLOWS FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR SHORE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION FURTHER FLARES UP ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THIS DUE TO A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. OVERALL...STILL LOOKING AT SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY FROM 10-20 NM OUT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS PRIMARILY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR AND SOUTHWARD. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL MAINLY DOMINATE...BUT A SLOWLY BUILDING 1 TO 3 FOOT SE PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS WILL OCCUR TOWARDS DAYBREAK SAT. PREVIOUS.................................................. AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...WINDS ARE NOW SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC FLOW OF SOUTHWEST TO REDEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK INLAND. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL WAVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND...PUSHED INLAND BY THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND PULLED BACK DOWN TO THE BEACHES BY THE LATE-NIGHT LANDBREEZE. IF IT WASN`T FOR THIS FRONT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WOULD PROVIDE A STEADY SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE/FRONT MOVES INLAND. WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN TURN OFFSHORE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LOCAL WIND WAVES THERE WILL BE AN 11-SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE VARIOUS WAVE SETS WILL LEAD TO 2-4 FOOT SEAS THIS WEEKEND...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF 5-FOOTERS SHOWING UP DURING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS OUT BEYOND 15 MILES FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY UNCHANGING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DRIVING THESE WINDS. A STRENGTHENING OF THE LATTER COULD ADD A FEW KNOTS OF WIND VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURS TODAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY. HOWEVER...DURING THIS CYCLE...EVEN THE BEACHES HAVE A SMALL RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS ABOUT 800 PM AT THE BEACHES AND ABOUT 1030 PM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 8 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ110. MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MAC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH/RJD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.