Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011727 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 120 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...A PLEASANT START TO OCTOBER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND A STORM SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE EXITING NORTHEASTWARD. LOCALLY THIS BRINGS A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLE ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPING THINGS DRY UPSTAIRS FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND A CLEAR NIGHT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART WITH NO POPS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR NEARLY TWO WEEKS IS FINALLY COMING TO AN END. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. THURSDAY...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE STILL HAS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOCALLY- A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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