Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211731 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 131 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT COOLING THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...STAGGERING HUMIDITY/TD VALUES SCRAPING THE COAST WITH OPPRESSIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ANTICIPATED. HEAT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR OUR SC INTERIOR AS T/TD PAIRINGS BRING HEAT INDICES/MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 DEGREES IN AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION TODAY PARTIALLY SUPPRESSED ALOFT BY A SUBSIDING SLAB OF DRIER AIR AS THICKNESSES MOUNT BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SW. INTENSE LOW- LEVEL HEATING WILL SHARPEN OUR LOWER TROP LAPSE RATES BUT -5 TO -6 DEGREES AT 500 MB WILL SUPPRESS ANY EVOLVING UPDRAFTS GENERALLY OF MAGNITUDE TO CAP SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION...PULSE SEVERE IN COLLIDING BOUNDARIES...AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ITSELF BECOMES STRENGTHENED IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH LOTS OF BOTTOM-LOADED MOISTURE SO VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES POTENTIALLY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BUT CONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY BI-SECTING NE SC/SE NC FROM SW TO NE PRESENTLY...AND THIS FEATURE AS IT BECOME INTERACTIVE WITH THE ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE FRONT COULD SPARK OUR CONVECTION LATER TODAY NEAR THE COAST OR COASTAL INTERIOR TRACKING TO THE E GENERALLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97, 96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY UNDERWAY NEAR THE N COAST. WILL ADD TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM HAS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO. FRIDAY...A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE THAT PREVIOUS DAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS. NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT. THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN UP. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033- 039-053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...COLBY NEAR TERM...COLBY SHORT TERM...BACON LONG TERM...BACON MARINE...DOUGH/BACON AVIATION...DAVE/8

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