Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262352 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 752 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, maintaining uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. The chances increase heading into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 636 PM Tuesday...A sizzler of a day and we are not talking about a restaurant chain. Plenty heat index values in excess of 105 inland were reached. The heat advisory will be allowed to end at 7 pm though plentiful apparent temps will linger in the 90s well into the evening. Storms firing near the NC/VA border will slowly drop south and both the HRRR and NSSL WRF models bring a cluserting of storms as far south as Onslow county after midnight before diminishing, so something to keep a eyeball on. Current forecast shows slight chance very northern tier late and no plans to alter this for now. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...The mid level ridge offshore not only grows in size but also a bit in strength during the short term. This will bolster the already unseasonable heat. Heat Advisories appear a certainty both afternoons. Heat Warning criteria could even be briefly achieved over a small part of the area. Figuring out convection is rather tricky, as there will certainly be ample instability with such heat in place. However the suppressive effects of the ridge will be in full force. Have opted to keep the very small POPS inherited along the sea breeze both days but could just as easily see how any radar returns yield only non-measurable precip (likely what happened this afternoon just to our west). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Mid level ridging at the start of the period will be suppressed by 5h trough dropping into the KY/TN valley for the weekend. The weakening of the 5h ridge in conjunction with southwest flow around the western edge of the Bermuda High will increase precip chances over the weekend and for the start of next week. Both the Piedmont trough and the sea breeze will become active with pop increasing from slight chc/chc Sat to high chc and possibly likely late in the period. The increase in precip chances will be accompanied by a decrease in high temperatures. Expecting above to well above normal temps Fri afternoon, with heat advisories likely. 850 temps Fri afternoon will approach 23C, suggesting triple digit temps away from the coast. High temps Sat through Tue will gradually trend toward climo with lows through the period running 5 to 10 degrees above climo. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 00Z...Classic summer weather with Bermuda high pressure in control. A decent subsidence inversion will keep convection at bay, however a complex north of the region will drop southeast overnight and may get close to our most northeast counties around 07Z. Southwest winds should stay up enough overnight with little or no fog expected. Wednesday, another very hot day with isolated convection by late afternoon. Gusty southwest flow by midday. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection through Sunday may create brief periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 636 PM Tuesday...Wind and waves manageable and unchanging through the period. High pressure well offshore will sustain light to moderate SW wind. Vast majority of wave energy tied to local wind waves with dominant periods 3-4 seconds, negligible swell. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Piedmont trough could briefly veer winds to westerly early Wednesday but SW should still be the flavor of most of the day. Models have been wanting to increase winds (at least the gustiness) and seas over the short term even though conditions don`t seem to be changing much. In deference to guidance have showed this trend but in a tempered fashion. That is, hard pressed to see WNA`s 4ft seas at 41010 and have capped at 3. For the actual forecast zones these changes haven`t much effect other than to also cap seas at 3 ft. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Bermuda High and Piedmont trough combo will maintain southwest flow over the waters through the period. Speeds will be in the 10 to 15 kt range, highest in the afternoon and early evening. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Colby SHORT TERM...Bacon LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43 MARINE...MBB/III

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