Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 222329 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 729 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.. .BEFORE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...A HOT AIRMASS COVERS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +20C USUALLY EQUATES TO UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND TODAY`S HOT TEMPERATURES OF 97 IN FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON WERE EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI IS PRODUCING A NORTHWEST UPPER WIND OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN IN THE 20-25 KT 700-500 MB FLOW ARE PRODUCING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE SUCH WAVE IS APPROACHING WILMINGTON FROM THE NORTH NOW AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR BY LATE THIS EVENING. A SECOND DISTURBANCE NOW IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...REACHING THE SC PEE DEE AND INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS ALSO WHEN A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EASE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...REACHING NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO WILMINGTON OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 70 PERCENT FROM BURGAW SOUTH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE (CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG) AND THERE IS ENOUGH HUMIDITY NEAR THE LCL TO ALLOW SURFACE-BASED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC AND KEEP ON GOING. ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR THE LCL IS ONLY 50 TO 60%. OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE SLOWLY THIS EVENING IN THE HOT AIRMASS. NEAR THE COAST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL MAINTAIN HEAT INDICES IN THE AROUND 100 THROUGH 8 PM...AND IN THE 90S UP UNTIL ALMOST MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO MID 70S FOR MOST ARES WITH SOME UPPER 70S NEAR THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS WEEKEND IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA FROM NE TO SW ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN AMPLIFYING 5H PATTERN...WITH A STRONG RIDGE GETTING SQUEEZED NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. IT IS THIS EASTERN TROUGH DIVING SW THROUGH THE WKND THAT PUSHES THE BACK DOOR FRONT INTO...AND THROUGH...THE CWA SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY...STRONG CAA LAGS ABOUT 18 HRS BEHIND...AND THUS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE A WARM DAY LOCALLY. HOWEVER...INCREASED CLOUDINESS...LOWERED THICKNESSES...AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 90 IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 90S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE. WHILE FORCING IS NOT STRONG WITH THE FRONT...AND A DIVING UPPER JET WILL ACTUALLY PUT THE REGION BENEATH THE RFQ...AN UNFAVORABLE POSITION FOR UPPER SUPPORT...STILL EXPECT CLIMO POP FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THANKS TO PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE INTO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH COOL ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...LOW 70S AREA-WIDE. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST SUNDAY MORNING...AND PWATS DROP TO LESS THAN 1 INCH...LOWEST NORTH...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING 5C THROUGH THE DAY. LOTS OF LATE-AUGUST SUNSHINE WILL SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT STRONG CAA...BUT HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY...AND IN FACT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...LOW 80S FAR NORTH TO UPR 80S IN THE SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SC ZONES CLOSER TO THE FRONT...BUT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. MUCH COOLER MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID 60S EXPECTED FAR NORTH IN THE DRY COLUMN...UPPER 60S NEAR THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND ON THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS TO MORE OF A SOUTHERN POSITION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AND EXTEND DOWN INTO GEORGIA FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THIS...THE FEATURE BREAKS DOWN LEAVING A WEAK PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE FORECAST. THE CHANCES WILL NOT BE GOOD UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEE MODERATING VALUES CLOSER TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH/VCTS FOR KLBT/KILM EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE STORMS NEAR THE AREA. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z WILL MISS OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS...THOUGH KILM COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA TONIGHT BEFORE THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS EARLY SAT MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY KEEN ON FOG...BUT WILL INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR FOR FOG-PRONE KCRE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...NEARING OUR NORTHERN TIER BY 12Z SAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING BELOW 10 KT. THE NAM HINTS AT SOME POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NO SIGN OF IT IN THE GFS/SREF OUTPUT. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR DURING THE DAY SAT. HAVE ADDED VCSH AT ALL SITES AFTER 18Z AS SFC BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SCT AFTN CONVECTION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL SUN THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE EAST COAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS MYRTLE BEACH BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH 2 FOOT SEAS...EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND A SOUTHWEST WIND CHOP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS EVENING IN THE CAPE FEAR-AREA WATERS. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND PLENTY OF LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THE CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL POP-UP STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WITH THE FRONT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NE TO SW DURING SATURDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN LEGS OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...WITH WINDS BECOMING N THEN NE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE WATERS OFF GEORGETOWN COUNTY NOT EXPERIENCING THE WIND SHIFT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED SATURDAY...SO WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE 5-10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...A NE SURGE OCCURS AND WINDS QUICKLY RISE TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND DRIVEN...RISING FROM 2-3 FT SATURDAY...TO 4-6 FT ON SUNDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY RETREATING FROM THAT POINT ON TO SINGLE DIGITS BY LATER WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SEAS AS THE SPECTRUM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW INVEST AL96 DOES. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FEW SIX FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF AMZ252 BUT OTHERWISE THE SEAS ARE 3-5 FEET. IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THE SWELL ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM COULD INCREASE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR

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