Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281456 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1056 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down this weekend leading to good chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM Thursday...Welcome (?) to the peak of the heat wave. Not only is today going to be about 2 degrees higher than yesterday but some very high dewpoints have pooled into coastal NC and with a WSW wind they should stay there. Yesterday it seemed that they would mix out some in the afternoon heating of the day but 12Z RAOBs from both MHX and CHS show weaker hydrolapse rates than what yesterday`s guidance portrayed. It seems likely then that only a minor drop in dewpoints is slated for this afternoon. So now coastal NC counties along with Bladen and much of Columbus should see heat indices in excess of 110 degrees. Have upgraded the advisory to a warning in those locales. No other changes to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Thursday...The high pressure aloft is being projected to being shunted to the southeast and a weak 500 mb trough will setup over the Ohio Valley. This should allow for only slight cooling but should allow diurnal convection to develop on Friday and Saturday. So will continue with a slight chance of thunderstorm but widespread rainfall is not expected. Maximum temperatures are expected only to drop into the middle 90s during the day and the heat indices are expected to fall from todays 106 to 109 range to 103 to 105 range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday...Its shaping up to be a somewhat unsettled period as the mid level ridge will be relenting to a subtle and slow moving trough over the Tennessee Valley. The trough actually deepens through Tuesday and then basically fills. At the surface the second half of the period will feature a cold front moving into the area and dissipating as well. Long story short, good chances of showers and thunderstorms will be the story each day. Difficult to say what period pops will be highest but it seems the coupling of the front late Monday into Tuesday with the deepening trough makes more sense. The same time is probably more conducive to severe weather with an increase in shear although this time of year it seems fair game anytime. There is a bit of cooling now showing up at least in the GFS regarding thermal profiles as 850mb temperatures drop off a couple of degrees Wednesday. Still, most of the slight cooling trend is courtesy of the convection/moisture. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 12Z...A persistence forecast with VFR this TAF valid period. SW-WSW winds will back to the S-SW by afternoon. Highest speeds of 15-20 KT will be in the afternoon at the coastal terminals. With deep mixing today some gusts are possible. There is a chance of isolated convection well NE-E of KILM and west of KLBT along old outflow boundaries. But the steering flow should take any development off to the NE. Winds will decrease in the evening to aob 10 kt and slowly veer TO SW-WSW overnight. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. Isolated to scattered afternoon convection through Sunday may create brief periods of MVFR/IFR. An increase in convection is expected Mon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1040 AM Thursday...No changes to the forecast. Conditions pretty quiet and typical of the time of year, albeit hot. Previous discussion still applies: As of 615 AM Thursday...High pressure and the Piedmont trough over the Carolinas will continue to produce southwest winds of 15 knots today with 3 ft seas. A southeast swell of 1 ft every 8 seconds will continue today with the wind wave of 2 to 3 feet every 5 seconds. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Thursday...Very little change with the surface pattern except for a slight tightening of the pressure gradient as the Piedmont trough shifts closer to the coast on Friday and Saturday. Southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue with seas of 3 ft. There may be an occasional 4 ft wave at 20 miles off the coast mainly north of Little River on Friday and Saturday. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue across the waters. Better chances for some convecton to distort local wind fields however. Significant seas, absent any appreciable swell component will be 1-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-110. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096- 099-105>109. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR

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