Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171952 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 252 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mild air will surge into the region Monday and Tuesday ahead of low pressure will approach from the west. This system will bring moderate rain Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure will build in Thursday and then weaken on Friday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday...A shortwave, currently dampening across the Midwest, along with a deepening upper low across NW Mexico is directing southern stream moisture toward the Carolinas. Clouds will continue to be on the increase and low-level Theta-E advection plus weak UVV later this afternoon and evening will result in widely scattered shower activity. Rainfall chances will decrease later this evening with the precip quickly exiting off the coast. Time-height cross sections show considerable moisture in the lower levels into Monday, however decent drying is expected above H85, especially across the northern half of the forecast area. Thus while cloud cover will continue the best chances for rain Monday will be found across the southern zones. Cloud cover and lack of cold advection will hold lows in the mid to upper 40s (warmest coast) tonight. Higher low-level thickness values during Monday suggest a nice warm- up into the mid 60s most areas, which is a category or so warmer than normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Primary headline this period, "Plenty Clouds and Mild, Low Rain Chances". Weak impulses caught in swift WSW flow Monday evening could bring a few rain drops from flaccid convection over NE SC, otherwise not a great expected in the rain department. A much stronger impulse/short-wave will bring rain chances late Tuesday night from the W-WSW , with significant QPF in the cards after daybreak Wednesday. Surface high pressure will remain anchored over Florida and the Bahamas this period. If you enjoy daytime temperatures in the 70s, then you should go outside Tuesday. The coolest portion of this time- frame is at daybreak Tuesday, upper 40s to around 50. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...A front will be draped over the area on Wednesday while a fast moving upper disturbance and flat surface wave of low pressure approach from the west. There is some unresolved differences in the track of this low, with some ramifications of Wednesday`s highs and perhaps the distribution of the max precipitation. In the wake of this system, which could bring a healthy dose of rain high pressure wedges in from the north on Thursday. This wedge will weaken but largely remain in the Carolinas, allowing for a moderation towards warmer temperatures. It then lifts out by Saturday clearing the path for warm and moist advection ahead of the next cold front, previously slated for arrival Saturday but it now appears to be up to two days slower. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 16Z...Weak low pressure will approach the region this evening. Look for light southerly flow this morning. Mid and high clouds will arrive this afternoon with rising dewpoints. Cloudy skies are expected through the overnight hours, worst case MVFR ceilings and visibilities after midnight. Continued cloudy on Monday with light and variable winds. Extended Outlook... Unsettled weather Monday through Thursday morning as a near stationary front moves in and out of the region. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Atypically benign marine conditions for the middle of December will persist through tonight thanks to surface high pressure in place over the area. Seas will be 2 ft or less with winds 10 knots or less tonight. The weak pressure gradient will carry into Monday morning as well, however the flow will become more W-SW and gradually increase to 10-15 knots during the day as high pressure becomes established farther S and SE of the waters. Potential for a few showers across the waters tonight as well. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...As of 3 PM Sunday...A navigable, traversable, and accessible marine period with W-SW winds 15 KT or less this period. Sea height will average around 2 feet, but up to 3 feet across the very outer waters. Very weak ESE swell, a foot or less every 8-9 seconds, will co-mingle with SW wind-waves and chop. Isolated light showers Monday evening, and again very early Wednesday as several disturbances pass overhead. Showers to be favored over the SC waters Monday evening, more widespread into early Wed. Surface high pressure will remain anchored over Florida and the Bahamas this period. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...With a front stalled over the area but at an uncertain latitude there is some uncertainty related to Wednesday`s wind forecast. There is also some uncertainty regarding wind speed. For now though the current solution favored keeps the front to our north and allows an approaching wave to ramp up wind speeds later in the day Wednesday. Once this low moves by high pressure will nose in from the north and turn winds decidedly NE. A short-lived advisory is tough to rule out either ahead or behind this system, or both given the aforementioned uncertainties. As the high weakens heading into Friday looking for decreasing and veering winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

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