Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241635 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1235 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE...BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL WARMTH FOR LATE MAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY MID TO LATE WEEK...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1234 PM SUNDAY...A FINE MEMORIAL WEEKEND SUNDAY UNDERWAY PROVIDED YOU RELISH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SUNSHINE AND ONSHORE BREEZES FROM THE SEA. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS WELL COMMENCED AND WILL DISPENSE AGREEABLE COOLING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEMATERIALIZE INTO THE PRE-DUSK LEAVING LARGELY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INFUSION OF ELEVATED ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY VIA A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH CIRCULATION UNDER A NEARLY CLEAR DOME MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BANKS OF MIST AND FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...AWAY FROM THE NEAR SHORE BREEZE. LOCAL MINIMUMS DAYBREAK MONDAY 60S...NEAR 60 WELL INLAND AND COOL RURAL LOCALS TO AROUND 70 NEAR AND ALONG THE SHORELINES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED HIGH JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAVING BECOME A FIXTURE THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHAT CHANGES LOCATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE SOUTH TO NORTH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THIS UPPER HIGH. FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE ILM CWA. DURING TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA...TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION FROM ITS CENTER LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE ENE OF DELMARVA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND CAPPING BETWEEN 700MB AND 850MB WILL PREVENT ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CU THAT DEVELOPS BOTH DAYS. THUS...BASICALLY LOOKING AT NO POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMING ON TUE. THIS IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE FA. FOR TEMPS...STAYED JUST BELOW THE MODEL MEAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MON...AT OR A CATEGORY HIER FOR TUE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PLACEMENT OF THE SOUTH TO NORTH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IMPORTANT TO WHETHER THE FA EXPERIENCES CLOUDS AND PCPN OR JUST CLOUDS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE BASIC SOLUTION OF MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS ON WED INTO THU. WITH THE GULF SEMI-OPEN TO THE FA AND A DAMPENING MID-LEVEL S/W TROF HAVING REACHED THE APPALACHIANS BY THU...LOOK FOR CLOUDINESS AND LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN THU INTO FRI...MAINLY FOR AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. FOR WED AND THU TEMPS...CONTINUED WITH A VARIOUS MODEL MOS CONSENSUS. BY LATE FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS DEFINITELY DIVERGE FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE WILL RELY ON CLIMO FOR SENSIBLE WX...IE. MAX/MIN TEMPS...AND FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH POPS IN DOUBT FOR MUCH OF THU THRU THE REMAINDER THE LONG TERM...COULD ONLY PROCESS A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GIVE US SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1234 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS. MARINERS WILL NOTE A WEAK ESE SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE INSHORE CHOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCUALTION. WIND DIRECTION E SE 15 KT AND GUSTY...EASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE POSITIONING OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR TUE...THIS AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS NORTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DECENT ESE TO SE ONSHORE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...TO AROUND 15 KT OR POSSIBLY 15 TO 20 KT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET WHERE THE SFC PG WILL BE TIGHTER. LOOK FOR A BUILDING PHASE WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEIR LOWEST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...AND HIEST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A SOLID 3 TO 4 F THRUOUT ALL WATERS. WITH A DECENT FETCH TO CONTEND WITH...LOOK FOR EVENTUALLY THE ONSHORE WIND DRIVEN WAVES OF THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS TO COALESCE RESULTING IN A DECENT ESE TO SSE GROUND SWELL TO CONTEND WITH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WELL OFFSHORE HIGH OFF DELMARVA...WILL CROSS THE ATL WATERS TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY WED. THIS PROVIDES A SSE-SSW WIND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SHUNTS THE DECENT EASTERLY FETCH SOUTHWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIME PERIOD...A MID-UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO START THIS PERIOD...IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THE SE. NOT MUCH OF A SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE...JUST A SFC TROF AT THIS TIME. ITS POSITIONING WILL PREVENT FEATURES FROM PROGRESSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT LIGHTER WINDS BY THU. WAVEWATCH3 GOES FULL THROTTLE WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS DUE TO THE DECENT EASTERLY FETCH SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH RESPECT TO ANY SFC DEVELOPMENT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...DL/8

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