Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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237 FXUS62 KILM 280749 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 349 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weakening and dissipating cold front will bring a few showers or a thunderstorm this morning. Otherwise, expect high pressure to extend across the area from offshore through Sunday. Expect warm temperatures and isolated sea breeze convection, mainly on Sunday. The next cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week period. Low pressure system may impact the region during Thursday with a soaking rain.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Friday...High pressure centered well east of Bermuda will bring a warm and humid day today with temperatures warming well into the 80s. Coastal locales will have the warmth tempered slightly by the ocean and a sea breeze could touch off isolated convection especially with dewpoints in the low 70s making for some lowered LCLs. In the very near term (now through daybreak) there is some uncertainty as to whether or not showers or storms fire along the coast as a thermal ridge and low level jet pass by. The HRRR has been most excited about this possibility but is starting to show an active initialization bias. There is support though less so from the GFS and the WRF keeps the area rain-free. Have blended previous forecast showing 20 POPS just about area-wide next few hours transitioning to slightly higher pops along the NC coast around daybreak. This will be followed by a lull and then the aforementioned slight chance along the sea breeze.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Friday...High pressure and ridging aloft and at the sfc will be the primary drivers affecting sensible weather across the ILM CWA. Closed High with heights of 590+ dam will anchor offshore and east of the Carolinas during this period. The center of the sfc high will basically park underneath the upper high offshore with ridging extending westward and onshore in the vicinity of Cape Romain on Sat, and onshore and inland in the vicinity of Cape Fear Sunday. A semi-tightened sfc pg will occur across the FA thruout this period keeping S to SW winds active, even during the evening and overnight. The sea breeze each aftn and evening will further enhance the S winds. An active low level jet will keep winds busy during the overnight, preventing any widespread fog development, but enough moisture in the low levels may result in low stratus or stratus fractus each early morning. The subsidence from the ridging will keep POPs in check on Saturday but could see isolated sea breeze induced convection during Sunday with the subsidence weakening slightly. Daily high temperatures for Saturday will run in the 80s to lower 90s inland, and for Sunday mainly widespread 80s due to winds having become more southerly thruout enabling some marine influence to extend well inland. Balmy nights can be expected with upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Surface and mid level ridge will weaken and drift east Mon, allowing a cold front to approach from the W. Low pressure and associated strong dynamics and upper level support will be well dislocated from the Carolinas as a cold front moves across the area Mon night. This suggests convection weakening as it moves into the eastern Carolinas. Current timing brings the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms later Mon and Mon night. As the front moves off the coast Tue morning, high pressure along the Gulf Coast will slide east and then offshore to our S during Wed. This should bring a dry period. Deep low pressure will move out of the mid south and Gulf coast states Wed, lifting slowly to the NE. Its associated cold front will move into the Southeast states Thu-Thu night, bringing the risk for robust thunderstorms.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 06Z Friday...A low confidence forecast with quite the divisiveness seen between major models. The WRF slams most of the area with IFR/LIFR cigs and even VSBY to a lesser extent. The GFS meanwhile never lowers any site to less than MVFR. The more pessimistic solution is quite overdone with initial conditions and so was not relied upon heavily, though some 600ft cigs seem to brushing MYR. The current widespread cirrus debris from earlier thunderstorms has made detecting such lowered CIGS tough to see in satellite imagery. Once the cirrus lifts out in a few hours may have a better idea of how widespread the low stratus becomes. Extended outlook...VFR through Sunday. Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible in thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS of 330 AM Friday...Southwesterly flow will be king with a large area of high pressure across much of the western Atlantic centered well east of Bermuda. With such a broad swath of flow coming across the Bahamas and into the Southeast a swell component will be able to coexist with the relative small wind waves. For the most part this will yield a forecast of 2 to 4 ft for all zones. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Sfc high pressure parked offshore from the Carolinas will extend westward and onshore in the vicinity of Cape Romain Saturday, and onshore vicinity of Cape Fear Sunday. Winds Saturday will run S to SW at 10-15 kt, with the SW direction mainly occurring over the waters from Cape Fear northward. For Sunday, the slight deviation with the sfc ridging will produce south winds thruout with speeds 10 to 15 kt initially, increasing to 15 to 20 kt as the sfc pg further tightens as an eastward moving cold front tracks into the western Carolinas late Sunday night. The sea breeze each day will result in winds gusting around 20 kt near shore. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft, choppy nearshore each aftn and early evening due to the sea breeze influence. Seas will build Sunday night reaching 3 to 5 ft by daybreak Mon. A SE to SSE pseudo swell at 5 to 7 second periods will be the primary driver for significant seas this period. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Western Atlantic High Pressure will bring increasing S winds ahead of a cold front. South winds 15 to 20 kt early Mon will increase late Mon and Mon night, up to 20 to 25 kt with seas 3 to 5 ft at the start building to 5 to 8 ft. In the wake of the cold frontal passage early Tue, offshore winds will slowly diminish. The offshore trajectories will knock seas down and we should drop below Small Craft Advisory levels by Tue eve.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...MBB

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