Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 211156 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 755 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING THIS WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 755 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND BETWEEN FLORIDA PAN HANDLE NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT MODELS INDICATE IS AMPLIFYING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUING INTO THE NEXT. MODELS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTS/IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FA. THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH AND ANY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE INLAND PSEUDO PIEDMONT TROF. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FA AND WILL TEND TO KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM EVEN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROF. POPS UP TO 30 AT BEST. THE WX HEADLINE FOR THE ILM CWA TODAY AND INTO THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OF THE HEAT...WITH SUMMER SAYING THAT ITS NOT DONE WITH US YET. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM SC CWA...WITH NO DELETIONS OR ADDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN 105-108 HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA...AND 100-104 OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY. WHATS SOMEWHAT DISCERNING AS THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO PAINT AN AREA OF 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS IDEA YET...SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97, 96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z...PRETTY DENSE FOG AT CRE AND ILM SHOULD MIX OUT BY 13Z...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LBT AS IT MAY GO DOWN BRIEFLY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...NEVERTHELESS SHOULD SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND 18-19Z...PROBABLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 90S. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 625 AM THURSDAY...THE N-S SFC TROF EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAK BERMUDA RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO THE SE U.S. COAST...WILL COMBINE EFFORTS TO CONTINUE WITH A SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE WSW NORTHERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. THE SFC PG REMAINS RATHER RELAXED WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION MAY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE 10-15 KT WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE DURING THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 3 FT POSSIBLY BEING A BIT TOO GENEROUS. NEVERTHELESS...AN ESE 1-2 FOOT 8-9 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AND LIKELY THE DRIVER OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE WIND CHOP FROM THE SEA BREEZE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT. THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN UP. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.