Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 250206 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
636 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017
-- Changed Discussion --Warm air will prevail across the Carolinas through Saturday.
A cold front approaching from the west will move offshore late
Saturday. Much cooler and drier air will build in Saturday
night through Monday. Shower chances will increase mid week as a
warm front moves across the area Tuesday. Much warmer
temperatures will follow this warm front through Thursday before
a cold front crosses offshore.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Mild overnight conditions and the pressure
pattern flattens, leading to light winds and partly to mostly
clear skies. This should set the stage for patches of fog
overnight. Little else in the sensible weather arena and
minimums to bottom out in the middle and upper 50s for most
areas and near 60 at the beaches.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Another warm day Saturday with record highs
in jeopardy in some locations, most favorably inland. Records
in place for Saturday 2/25 include ILM-81 in 1930, FLO-78 in
1977, CRE-77 in 1949. Inland locations may see temperature drops
up 40 degrees or better from Saturday`s highs to Sunday`s lows
as a cold front sweeps through late Saturday. Moisture appears scant
with this system and only isolated showers painted in over SE NC.
Sunday sunny and cooler with highs in the afternoon reaching around
60 degrees. The coolest time of this forecast period is Monday
daybreak, widespread 30s inland and lower 40s near the coast, in a
light onshore breeze.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Fast flow aloft will keep features moving
quickly next week, so while temps will remain above normal, the
weather is likely to be unsettled at times.
Cool high pressure Monday will push offshore as a warm front lifts
northward late in the day. This warm front will bring a chance for
showers Monday night into Tuesday, along with temps soaring back
well into the 70s Tuesday after just being slightly above climo on
Monday. Warm and unstable air behind the warm front will continue at
least a slight chc for showers through Wednesday as weak impulses
rotate overhead, but total coverage is expected to be isolated at
worst. This will change on Thursday however, as a strong cold front
digs across the Carolinas with a better chance for showers, followed
by much cooler temps for the end of the period. After several days
in the 70s, below climo temps are possible as we head into the first
wknd of March.
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...Conditions currently VFR but moisture profiles support
fog tonight with good saturation below 500 ft. LIFR conditions are
likely after 08Z. Fog should dissipate by 13z with increasing SW
flow becoming more westerly aft 20z.
A potential fly in the ointment though will be the onset of more
southerly flow along the coast toward 12Z. As low level winds veer
late tonight, there is the potential for low stratus to move in over
the fog at the coastal terminals. This could do 2 things. First,
vsbys will likely be higher but cigs will remain IFR or LIFR.
Second, the improvement to VFR could be delayed at coastal terminals
during the morning. Attm confidence is low in this scenario.
Extended Outlook...VFR. VSBY and ceilings lowered to MVFR/IFR with
pcp Mon night into Tues and again with SHWRs on Wed.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Significant SE swell continues to fan ashore
keeping Advisory flags flying in only moderate to light winds.
As the pressure pattern goes flat, very clean, almost pure swell in
the early morning with little to no wind. Swell will subside 1-2
feet into early Saturday, but Advisories will be needed tonight.
No TSTMS or restrictions to visibility overnight, coupled with
diminishing NE-N winds.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Waning SE swell on Saturday, and midday the
advisories should be dropped for the NC waters, a little sooner
for the SC waters. However, as a cold front approaches, another
advisory or caution statement may be needed Saturday night, but
only briefly. Sunday will be a day of diminishing N-WNW winds and
improving marine conditions. No TSTMS this period but look for a few
marine showers late Saturday over the NC waters.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure will move overhead and
offshore Monday with light E winds veering to the S/SW by
Tuesday morning and increasing to 10-15 kts on return flow.
Winds will then remain from the SW through the remainder of the
extended and increase slowly towards 20 kts during Wednesday as
the gradient pinches ahead of a cold front. Wave heights around
2 ft Monday will climb steadily as a SE swell and southerly wind
wave amplify through mid-week. Seas will build to 3-4 ft
Tuesday, and then up to 3-5 ft Wednesday during the period of
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for AMZ254-256.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for AMZ250-252.