Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271044 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 644 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BY THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE COOL FRONT SITUATED NE-SW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS COASTS. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS AIDING THE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COUNTIES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TEMPORARILY HIER ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE ILM CWA...MAINLY THE ILM NC COUNTIES...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT PCPN OUTBREAK. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FCST AOK. PREVIOUS.................................................... AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SFC COOL FRONT HAS NOW SNAKED JUST OFF THE ILM CWA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE ILM COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT...AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE ILM CWA COAST. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY DRIER BIAS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST TODAY...AND AS INSOLATION COMMENCES...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AREAS OF THE ILM CWA. WILL INDICATE THE HIER POPS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FURTHER INLAND ONE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ILM CWA...IE. ISOLATED OR JUST WIDELY SCATTERED ONCE YOU REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...WILL DROP OFF POPS TO JUST ISOLATED FOR THE MID EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THIS STILL MAY BE OVERDONE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS MAX/MIN TEMP FORECAST...WITH JUST A DEGREE OR 2 LOWER ADJUSTMENT TO BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH MAY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST ON FRI LEAVING A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE BROADER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE A MORE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. THE DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ON FRI SHOULD KEEP PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR 1.5 INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND DIMINISHING INLAND. THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD. BY SATURDAY...THE GREATER ON SHORE PUSH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. WINDS MAY STILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE MAINTAINING A DRIER FLOW OVER NC INITIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT BY THE END OF SATURDAY...PCP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE UP NEAR 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LONG TERM FORECAST TOTALLY DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA...WHICH...AT THIS POINT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. NHC FORECAST KEEPS ERIKA ON A ROUTE UP THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND REACHING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY MON EVE. THE TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TAKING THIS TRACK AS WELL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACK ERIKA FARTHER WEST AND KEEP IT WEAKER...WHILE THE PREVIOUS RUNS PRODUCED A HURRICANE OVER CAPE FEAR BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS TIME...WILL REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WILL KEEP WITH MORE OF AN ON SHORE AND THAN NORTHERLY FLOW AS IF ERIKA WAS TRACKING OFF THE COAST TO OUR EAST. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ERIKA QUITE CLOSELY. LOOKS LIKE GREATEST EFFECTS FROM ERIKA MAY BE EXTREME RUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SWELLS AND STRONG ON SHORE PUSH AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO EXPECT AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT AS EARLY AS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION AND GREATEST POPS FOR TUES INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MINS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NE ALONG A WEAK FRONT LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION IS DECREASING AT KCRE/KMYR WHILE PERSISTING AT KILM WHICH IS NEAREST THE LOW. VCTS WILL BE LIKELY AT KILM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO UNTIL THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE NE AND E. POST FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING...BUT COULD RE- DEVELOP AT KILM/KMYR/KCRE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. BEST LIFT TODAY THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF VCTS WILL BE KCRE/KMYR/KFLO. THIS COINCIDES WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LYING JUST S OF THOSE TERMINALS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT MAY BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. WITH A MOIST NE FLO TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT KFLO. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PCPN OUTBREAK...MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE COOL FRONT. AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THIS UPDATE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT FOR THE COOL FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER OFFSHORE MOVEMENT OCCURRING TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND OCCUR AND AFFECT EACH SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR MARINERS THRU TONIGHT. A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO NE-E WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS DURING TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WAS SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY HOOK UP WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH MAX TEMP FORECASTS IN THE 80S TODAY ACROSS THE ILM LAND AREAS...AND LOCAL SSTS IN THE 80S...DO NOT EXPECT A WELL PRONOUNCED AND INLAND PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY GO WITH NE-E WIND DIRECTIONS THRU TONIGHT FOR THE LOCAL WATERS. THE SFC PG REMAINS RELATIVELY RELAXED THRU TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...EXCEPT 10-15 KT FOR THE WATERS MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR VICINITY NORTHWARD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT. THE 3 FOOTERS WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF THE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL AT 11 SECOND PERIODS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF WATERS ON FRI WITH MORE OF A NE WIND FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC WITH CENTER TO THE NORTH OF AREA WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AND E-SE BY SUN NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SPIKE EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. KEEPING SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITH A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MIXING IN WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LONG TERM FORECAST BECOMES MORE DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF ERIKA. OVERALL EXPECT ON SHORE PUSH WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 4 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY TUES MORNING...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO RAMP UP AS WINDS AND SWELLS FROM ERIKA BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE GREATEST AFFECT FROM ERIKA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS WILL COME TUES INTO WED....BUT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES MAY MAKE IT A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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