Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 302348 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 748 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture associated with the remnants of Bonnie will be very slow to leave the area even as the actual system does by Wednesday. The weather may then turn even more unsettled by Friday and into the weekend as a cold front drops into the area and stalls. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Monday...Inland shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is weakening this evening due to the loss of heating. This trend will continue through the evening with high resolution guidance showing all showers dissipating before midnight. However, along the coast precip chances will remain elevated overnight with the best chances in coastal NC. Marine convection developing over the Gulf Stream will continue to rotate onshore ahead of the barely moving remnant Bonnie circulation. The tropical nature of the air mass combined with slow moving storms training over the same areas could result in some brief minor flooding across portions of coastal NC tonight. Abundant moisture and cloud cover will keep lows several degrees above climo with most areas in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Bonnie`s remnant low will only slowly move northeastward, reaching Cape Fear Tuesday afternoon and moving east of the New Hanover County beaches Tuesday night. Good convective instability on the order of 1000-1500 j/kg Tuesday and convergence provided by the low should help develop more showers and t-storms, especially across SE North Carolina. Forecast PoPs range from 50 percent along I-95 to 70 percent near Wilmington. Cell movement will be very slow near the low and the potential for isolated flooding cannot be ruled out. By Wednesday the low should be up near the NC Crystal Coast, shifting the greatest concentration of showers and storms north of our forecast area. A very humid airmass will linger behind the low, and as temperatures rise into the mid 80s inland a seabreeze should develop which will act as a focus for new convection. Forecast PoPs Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-60 percent along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Remnant low pressure from Bonnie finally lifting north and tracking up toward Hatteras on Thursday. This will leave a W-NW flow of deeper drier air making its way into the area on the back end. Pcp water values will essentially drop down to around 1.5 inches by Thurs aftn. Still a warm and humid summer time air mass in place with plenty of low level moisture remaining. A good deal of upper level subsidence should keep shwr activity limited but can not rule out some localized spotty convection. By late Thurs into Friday a moist southerly return flow will set up at the surface while winds above the surface maintain more of a westerly flow. Will see an increase in overall moisture through the column while a northern stream shortwave begins to push a cold front south toward the Carolinas. For the most part, expect continued warm and humid weather with localized shwr activity becoming more widespread later in the day, especially inland. May see some stronger convection well inland, making its way into local forecast area late day as front gets pushed a little closer. By Saturday, expect increased thunderstorm activity and a much more active day overall as front reaches the area with better upper level support. The GFS brings front down early Saturday and then it may linger through the weekend before main h5 trough digs southward finally pushing the front off shore by Monday. The ECMWF is slower with the departure of the front and therefore keeps more active weather for Monday as well. For now will probably show a clearing trend through the day on Monday...with weak high pressure returning. Temps will run well into the 80s most days with a warm and humid summer time air mass in place. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 18Z...Areas to widespread convection will occasionally affect all terminals thru sunset. The inland terminals from diurnally driven convection within this juicy tropical airmass, and the coastal terminals from the onshore movement of strings of showers which will further develop into thunderstorms after moving inland and aided by the increased instability. the majority of the convection will dissipate around sunset due to the loss of the days heating. The exception will be continued convection in the vicinity of the remnant Bonnie low which will be snaking across Northeast SC thru early tue and then snailing into Southeast NC during the day on Tue. May or may not include the threat for overnight convection for CRE and MYR. Otherwise, tonight will feature the thinning out of the debris convective clouds overhead. One or 2 of the models analyzed wants to paint a low stratus deck during the pre-dawn Tue hours. Not on entirely on the bandwagon with this attm but will mention mvfr fog. In addition, the bulk of the onshore movement of strings/bands of pcpn and the direct line of flow from the tropics will get shunted ne-e of the FA by Tue. The circulation associated with the remnant Bonnie low could locally produce and draw in the showers from off the adjacent Atlantic waters overnight into daytime Tue morning. Will only need several hrs of the days heating Tue morning to produce favoring instability for convection to once again develop over land, resulting with MVFR conditions. Extended Outlook...tropical airmass and daytime heating will result in areas to widespread convection thru thursday, with resulting mvfr/ifr conditions. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 730 PM Monday...Weak nature of the surface gradient, given the proximity to the crawling remnants of Bonnie, will keep winds 10 kt or less overnight. Direction will gradually veer from southeast to south as the low creeps northeast overnight. Southern portions of the waters may see some west or even northwest winds before the end of the period, but speeds will remain under 10 kt. Seas continue dropping with 41013 now at 4 ft and 41108 at 3 ft. Lack of any significant wind speeds or swell will maintain the downward trend and seas will continue falling through the period. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Bonnie`s remnant low will move slowly northeastward Tuesday, passing just offshore of Cape Fear during the afternoon and moving east of Wrightsville Beach Tuesday night. By Wednesday the low should be up in the Crystal Coast area and losing its influence on the Cape Fear/Grand Strand area. Models all suggest there will be no significant winds surrounding the low, 15 knots or less, although wind directions will continue to be determined by the low`s position through at least Tuesday night. A very humid airmass lingering behind Bonnie should continue to produce scattered showers & t-storms. These should be fairly numerous Tuesday, especially near and north of Cape Fear, then will focus more along the seabreeze boundary on Wednesday. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...As the remnant low from Bonnie finally lifts farther north toward Hatteras on Thursday...a light off shore flow will develop and then become more southerly through Friday as cold front approaches from the N-NW. The off shore flow will allow seas to drop a little further remaining below 3 ft Thurs into Fri with a slow rising trend heading into the weekend in minor southerly push ahead of approaching cold front. Winds will basically remain S-SW less than 15 kts late Thurs into the weekend with seas rising slightly Fri night into Sat but remaining in the 2 to 4 ft range.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH

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