Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171600 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1100 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the coast this afternoon, bringing a mix of rain and snow. Cold and dry arctic air will follow late this afternoon into Thursday. Temperatures will warm into the weekend, as high pressure moves offshore. Another cold front will bring rain chances early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1012 AM Wednesday...A Winter Storm Warning continues for Marlboro and Robeson counties. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Darlington, Marlboro, Bladen, and Pender portions of forecast area. Greatest amounts will between 2 to 3 inches along northern portions of Marlboro and Robeson counties. The upper level trough is progressing eastward this morning with the axis located over central Tennessee and northern Alabama. At the surface the cold front is just entering the county warning area. Just to the west, Rockingham is reporting light snow. The latest deterministic run of the 12 utc nam is still consistent with showing a 2 to 3 inch band of snow across the northern tier of Marlboro and Robeson with a tight gradient to the north. Lesser amounts are just to the south and matches well with the Warning and Advisory areas. The temperatures ahead of the front are rising into the upper 40s and lower 50s and will quickly fall with the fropa. As the pcpn spreads toward the coast it will start as rain most likely between 3 and 5 pm and with the best lift to the north, expect QPF to be much less as you head toward the coast and into coastal SC and expect primarily rain with just a chc of snow in the evening as the cold air moves in and the moisture moves out. All pcpn should end mainly as snow before midnight. Very cold air will follow with deep CAA and gusty northerly winds tonight. Temps will drop down near 20 by Thurs morning with wind chills in the lower teens. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...The deep upper air trough will be off the coast by sunrise Thursday. Drier westerly mid and upper level flow guarantees a couple of days of clear skies and dry weather. Surface high pressure moving eastward along the Gulf Coast will build across Georgia and northern Florida by Friday, then push out into the Atlantic Friday night. Temperatures will remain well below normal Thursday when highs should only reach 40-45 degrees. Warm advection up at 850 mb won`t really show up at the surface until Friday, so Thursday night will again be quite cold with lows in the 20s down to the beaches. By Friday highs should reach the mid 50s which is almost up to normal levels for mid-January. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Surface high will shift east for the weekend, moving offshore. Very dry air in place, precipitable water will be under a quarter inch Sat, ensure the region remains dry. Temperatures will start warming Sat as weak low level warm advection begins. The progressive mid-level pattern, responsible for the surface high`s rapid shift east, will become a little more amplified as a southern stream shortwave moves along the Gulf Coast this weekend. The wave weakens/opens up as it lifts into the southeast and it seems unlikely that it will be accompanied by any rainfall as it passes late Sat night and Sun. Weak 5h ridge starts to build over the western Atlantic early next week which, coupled with low level warm advection, leads to a warming trend Sun and Mon. Best precip chances during the period continue to be associated with cold front crossing the area late Mon or Mon night. Parent low remains displaced well north of the area, moving across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. Although there is a brief period of moisture return ahead of the front, moisture will be limited and current chc pop Mon and Mon night seems reasonable. Cold advection is limited behind the front as the 5h trough lifts northeast instead of moving overhead. Lack of cold advection combined with the return of the 5h ridge over the western Atlantic will keep temperatures near to slightly above climo in the post front environment. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 16Z...Things will be going downhill for the inland terminals pretty quickly. The precip will start out as rain, but with 850 temps dropping to around -5C, it will turn to snow, perhaps moderate for an hour or two. Time height shows that the moisture column is not very deep on the back end, so there will probably two or three hours of flurries, with little additional accumulation. ILM will be the last terminal for the snow to end, probably around 5-6Z. Gusty winds and cold air advection will be the rule from 02Z through most of the forecast period. Nearly clear skies by daybreak on Thursday. Extended Outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Wednesday...A northeast wind is occurring over the waters of less than 10 knots and seas of 3 to 4 feet. This will change quickly when the cold air advection behind the front moves over the waters this evening with gusty winds up to 25 to 30 kts overnight into early Thursday. This will produce a rapid rise in seas this evening up to 4 to 7 ft peaking around daybreak Thursday. Thus a small craft advisory has been issued starting 7 PM tonight. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Low pressure will move away from the U.S. East Coast Thursday while high pressure builds east along the Gulf Coast. This will lead to decreasing northwest winds during the day Thursday, backing more westerly Thursday night and Friday as the high moves into Alabama and Georgia. The high will move off the Georgia coast Friday night. Short-period wind waves will be supplemented by a 2-foot 10 second swell from the east-southeast through the period generated by a broad zone of northeasterly winds between the Caribbean and Bermuda. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Weak surface high will quickly shift east over the weekend. Southwest flow drops to around 10 kt by Sat morning. The center of the high expands over the western Atlantic with the surface pressure gradient becoming ill- defined. Winds will drop under 10 kt late Sat night and remain light and variable Sun with the surface ridge axis in the region. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for SCZ023-024. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for SCZ017. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ096-105. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH/RGZ SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL

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