Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281909 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 309 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will enter the area and stall through early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be around during the latter part of the week as weak upper level disturbances continue to pass overhead.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...A west to subtle southwest flow will continue at the mid levels through the period. A very broad front extends across the Mississippi Valley well to the west. For our area there appears to be two decent chances of convection, the first coming this afternoon and evening with similar timing Monday. Currently convective debris from last night`s convection is exiting off the coast and a decent cumulus field is developing in its wake matching up well with convective inhibition has finally eroded from a 100mb Mixed Layer perspective. This trend should continue and showers and thunderstorms should begin in the next few hours. The GFS shows a smattering of convection this afternoon with a little more enhancement/organization around 00 UTC. The high resolution CAM guidance is showing a similar scenario albeit with more of a delay in timing. I have increased the pops slightly for the next six hours or so due to these trends. If and moreso when things get going, severe potential is fair game with strong winds and hail the primary threats. For the overnight hours beyond 03 UTC, things should be quiet persisting well into Monday morning. For Monday afternoon, residual Piedmont troughing and very similar thermal parameters will offer up more chances of convection. Guidance pops from the MAV aren`t as high as this afternoon and evening but may trend up in time which can be the nature in the warm season regarding convection. SPC has most of the area in a slight risk for Monday. Thermal profiles show temperatures should be a little warmer Monday afternoon as does the official forecast. Overnight lows tonight will remain mostly in the 70s with maybe an upper 60 or two well inland.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...With a boundary stalled over the area and some mid level energy still present Monday night may see a continuation of the afternoons` convective activity. This is especially suggesting by the 12Z WRF which shows a very agressive, possibly feedback-contaminated convective signal over mainly SC zones. Tuesday morning should offer a bit of a break in radar activity though not necessarily a rain-free period. With a little heating and the front still in the area Tuesday afternoon should once again see at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Coverage will wane to isolated or perhaps none at all later Tuesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...GFS/ECMWF in agreement on the evolving H5 pattern in slowly migrating a broad but low amplitude trough eastward across the Great lakes and Ohio valley then into New England and SE Canada this period, while holding an upper ridge of varying amplitude over Florida and the Bahamas. This will allow a series of weak fronts and upper disturbances to move to our coasts, offering daily chances of thunderstorms. Late May/early June heating coupled with PWATS values between 1.50-1.80", and numerous surface boundaries, will support convection much of the extended forecast period. Next weekend potentially could turn wet, as enhancement of column moisture is drawn from the Gulf of Mexico by low pressure over Texas on Saturday, tracking to the Ohio Valley during Sunday. With the abundance of clouds, daytime temperatures will run near normal for the season, middle to upper 80s, but above average minimum temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 18Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period. There will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening but the confidence level does not warrant any prevailing flight restrictions. There should be enough debris cloudiness and wind to prevent any significant fog outbreak after Monday morning. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday Night through Tuesday. More typical summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Bermuda High pressure will keep a southwest flow in place over the waters through the period. Speeds will be mostly in a range of 10-15 knots with the exception of a few hours this afternoon when stronger low level jetting warrants a few hours of 15- 20. Speeds will relax a little Monday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the four footers mostly confined to the next few hours coinciding with the slightly stronger winds. SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front should be stalled over land, keeping marine flow out of the SW. Solutions that push the front farther and lead to veered flow currently not favored though impossible to rule out. This boundary will tend to remain quite stationary through the period keeping a fairly light southwesterly flow across the waters. The proximity of the boundary paired with the poorly defined nature of the Atlantic high will keep wind waves minimal and preclude any swell energy for an overall wave forecast of just 2 ft. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-like marine conditions this period as SW winds prevail with 2-3 foot seas. High pressure will remain centered just to the SE and E of Bermuda, and weak troughing inland should maintain SW wind flow Wed to Fri. The sea spectrum will be comprised of S-SSW waves 1-2 feet every 5 seconds and ESE waves 1-2 feet every 8 seconds. TSTMS will be active this period, moving generally from land to the coastal waters, and some may be strong from afternoon heating. Getting a radar update before heading out may be in the best interest of safely this period as we transition into a more active lightning and TSTM wind gust season.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...SHK

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