Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 312034 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 334 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...FAIR AND COOL EVENING WEATHER IN STORE FOR NE SC AND SE NC AS THE HEART OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA THEN SLIPS OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT AND WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LEVEL OFF OR SIGNIFICANTLY DECELERATE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND LIGHT WIND ON THE OTHER HAND WILL PROMPT RAPID DROPS IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SUB-FREEZING READINGS LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM BEACHES AND THE ICWW CORRIDOR. THUS LOOK FOR MINIMUMS IN MANY SPOTS POTENTIALLY TO OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY...AS H5-H6 CLOUDS THICKEN AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS PREVAIL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT PERHAPS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IT MAY BE LATER IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WILL GO TO INCREASING CLOUDS RATHER THAN ACTUAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NIGHTTIME. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT SOME WELCOME SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE STRENGTHENING WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT OR EVEN RISING OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE HIGHS AND THE NIGHT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REALLY RAMPS UP IN STRENGTH. SIMILARLY MONDAY WILL BE QUITE BREEZY WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY. ALL TOLD SOME AREAS COULD NET A HALF INCH OF PRECIP. MONDAY MAY FEATURE A SECOND PERIOD OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AS THE MIDDAY FROPA LEADS TO AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES. BACK TO REALITY MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS PROMINENT DURING THE PERIOD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE DEVELOPING IS QUITE HIGH THE EXTENT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MID TO LATE WEEK REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST GFS/CMC CONTINUE TO SHOW INTERACTION OF THESE 2 FEATURES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THU AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN FRI AS THE 5H TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DRIER PICTURE. IT HAS LIMITED INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND MOVES THE 5H FEATURE AND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE NORTHEAST BLIZZARD EARLIER THIS WEEK...THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND AT THE 5 DAY MARK THE CMC ENDED UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE. NOT PLANNING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR NOW GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS ASSESSED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8 KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE RAIN WED. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A VASTLY IMPROVING MARINE ENVIRONMENT INDEED MATEYS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS DIE OUT TO 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN LINKED WITH WINDS SO AS WINDS TAIL OFF...SEA HEIGHT WILL AND PRESENTLY ARE SUBSIDING. 2-4 FOOT SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT THIS EVENING TO 1.5-2 FT INTO FIRST LIGHT SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WIND. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW E WAVES OF 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT WAVE ACTION IN GENTLE ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED FOR ALL BUT THE VERY START OF THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVE CALM COMES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST OFFSHORE MOVES A BIT FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SWRLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH WIND AND SEAS...EASILY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT GALES WILL OCCUR AND BE FREQUENT ENOUGH THAT A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS TIME A GALE WATCH COULD BE HOISTED BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE TWO MAIN ISSUES THAT MAY PRECLUDE GALES ARE: 1.THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ON THE WRF MAY BE OVERDONE AND 2. THE COOL SSTS WILL REALLY INHIBIT VERTICAL MIXING IN THIS OTHERWISE WARM AIRMASS. SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS MAY BE LURKING JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SURFACE...WITH ANY REGULARITY. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PERSIST AND A MIDDAY OR EARLY PM FROPA WILL ADD A STEEPENING ELEMENT OF CONFUSION TO WAVE FACES DUE TO ABRUPT WIND SHIFT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED. PINCHED GRADIENT INITIALLY WILL HAVE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT GRADIENT IS QUICK TO RELAX AND BY MIDDAY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE NIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY ON WED. EARLY THU WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THU INTO THU NIGHT. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND WED WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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