Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 022254 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 555 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DRAMATIC WARM UP ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EVEN COLDER AIR MASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A VERY GRADUAL WARM UP AS WELL ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...WHAT A CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING TO THE CURRENT SITUATION! A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...ONE WHICH MAKES THIS FORECASTER A BIT JEALOUS TO BE SITTING INSIDE AT A WORKSTATION! SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WEAKLY DEFINED COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY VIA OBS AND SATELLITE...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT IT IS LOCATED E-W FROM JUST OFF THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST...WEST TOWARDS KINGSTREE...AND THEN BACK FURTHER NEAR COLUMBIA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH BUT LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BECOME NE LATE THIS AFTN...AND AS COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT NE WINDS WILL BECOME ELEVATED. THIS WILL DRIVE COLD ADVECTION...FINALLY...BUT MINS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS ONLY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF CAA WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE W/SW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290/295K SURFACES INCREASES. HAVE TRIMMED POP BACK CONSIDERABLY FROM INHERITED...BUT STILL EXPECT A SLOW RAMP UP TO SCHC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL QPF. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK/LATE CAA AND THE INCREASING CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL ONLY ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTHERN ZONES...TO MID 40S ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS MINS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR IN THE EVENING MOST LOCATIONS THEN TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. ANY SEA FOG THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COOLER SHELF WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD EASILY DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING AS THE WIND INCREASES. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH OVERRIDING THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL ALSO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DURING WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO FOLLOW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST GFS HOLDS MID TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH LOW PRESSURE WAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE SFC FRONT WHICH IS STILL BACK OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS THURS MORNING. THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL NOW START OUT VERY WARM IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH BY NOON. THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WINDS FROM SW TO N ONCE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF COASTAL CAROLINAS AND LOOKS LIKE MOST OF PCP WILL COME ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THURS...MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONT AND STRATIFORM RAIN AS WARM SW WINDS ALOFT RIDE OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND SFC FRONT THURS AFTN. WARMEST TEMPS ON THURS WILL BE EARLY MORNING BEFORE FROPA. BY THURS NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH MORE OF ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND COLD NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE AFC. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE AREA THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI. PCP WATER VALUES UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES THURS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI. EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS. A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS GREATER CHC OF PCP ON SAT WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ANY PCP OFF UNTIL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE ONCE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ON THURS WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12C THURS MORNING DROPPING DOWN NEAR 0C BY FRI MORNING. THIS STRONG CAA AND POSSIBLY LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP VERY COOL TEMPS FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY. AFTER MAX TEMPS EARLY THURS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S LATE THURS AND WILL REMAIN ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES BOTH THURS NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. WITH MID TO UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP BRING THEM UP A NOTCH. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE COAST. THIS COULD BRIEFLY GIVE THE COASTAL TERMINALS AN MVFR CEILING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TUE MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/SHOWERS TUE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOWERS LATE WED. RAIN/IFR THUR. VFR DEVELOPING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN...BUT A SLOW DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...AND WILL DROP COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN AT RELATIVELY LIGHT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN A NE SURGE DEVELOPS. THIS NE SURGE WILL SIGNAL THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD FROM THE CURRENT 2-4 FT...TO 4-6 FT...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. SWAN GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BUILD SEAS A BIT TOO QUICKLY ON THESE NE SURGES...BUT SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE BOTH ISSUED AN SCA FOR THEIR WATERS...SO HAVE OPTED TO ERR WITH CAUTION AND GO AHEAD WITH THE SCA FROM ABOUT 10PM THROUGH 7AM TUESDAY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...NE TO E FETCH TUESDAY WILL VEER TO A SE TO S WIND BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL HELP TO DISSIPATE ANY SEA FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS COULD POSSIBLE INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...LATEST MODELS HOLDING FROPA BACK AGAIN UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP S-SW WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOULD SEE AN FAIRLY ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO N BEHIND FRONT ON THURS. STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD KEEP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE FRI AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY....BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA BY FRI AFTN AND DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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