Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241038 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 638 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...A VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND AT TIMES ONLY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED FORCING WITH THIS RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSER TO THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY FOG FORMATION. EXPECT MORE CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT... N-NW AOB 5 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING VRBL THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM AFTER 00Z SAT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2 TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY DUE TO SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED. HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO 10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT FOR THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR/RJD

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