Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221058 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 657 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather is expected today, as high pressure moves off to the northeast ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will bring showers and a few storms late Monday through Tuesday morning, and some storms could be strong. Cooler air will spread across the region through mid-week, as the front moves off the coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 321 AM Sunday...Temps and dewpoints have surged across the forecast area over the last 24 hours in return flow around surface high pressure. In general, most locations are 3-5 degrees higher than this time yesterday, however along the immediate coast of northeast SC, onshore flow has yielded temps and dewpoints as much as 8-10 degrees higher. Despite the increase in low-level moisture, winds just off the surface are slightly higher, and have not allowed patchy, dense fog to develop to the same extent as the previous couple of nights. The relatively high amplitude mid-level ridge axis will linger off the eastern seaboard today and high temps will surge into the low 80s, except for upper 70s at the beaches. The combination of surging dewpoints and some unstable air may allow a few showers to pop up by late afternoon across Georgetown and Williamsburg counties, and if so, potentially affect portions of the Pee Dee region overnight as they advect inland. Lows tonight will remain on the order of 10-12 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 AM Sunday...The chief caption this forecast period is `wet and unsettled`, as a vigorous low pressure system brings strong warm air advection and a dampening, but negatively tilted upper trough through Monday night. This will generate strong low level winds, in excess of 50 kt below 850 mb, and the SPC has painted a `marginal` risk here. An axis of enhanced 0-1 km helicity will move NE across the forecast area several hours either side of 6z Tuesday. This period could see a tornado watch issued. Mid-level drying in wake of the frontal system will curtail rainfall by midday Tuesday. Latest QPF consensus suggests up to an inch of rain on average is expected. This seems plausible looking at the rich plume of tropical moisture over the eastern Gulf of Mexico poised to be drawn northward. Tuesday will remain mild in wake of the frontal band, before the onset of cold air advection Tuesday night. Lows Wednesday at daybreak upper 40s inland to mid 50s coast, much closer in line with climatology. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM Saturday...Other than Saturday, remainder of the Long Term looks to be dry as high pressure moves east across the eastern Carolinas. Showers moving in advance of the next cold front may impact the area on Saturday, but model solutions are quite divergent so will keep pops on the low side. Temperatures will drop to normal for late October on Tuesday in the wake of FROPA, then even cooler for Wednesday and Thursday before a warming trend commences for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 12Z...High pressure will stay in control for one more day. Light and variable winds will become east southeast with the onshore sea breeze by late morning. Mainly just cirrus today, with some isolated cu developing this afternoon. Overnight, increasing southerly moist flow as the next system approaches. The inland terminals will probably see a VFR stratocu ceiling by the end of the forecast period. Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms may result in flight restrictions Mon-Tue.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 321 AM Sunday...The center of surface high pressure will lift northeast from the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters today. This, in combination with a frontal boundary making its way across the Mississippi River valley, will produce onshore flow and a slowly strengthening pressure gradient across the waters through tonight. Sustained wind speeds will increase towards 15 knots over the northeast SC coastal waters by this evening, and these speeds should be realized north of Cape Fear by the predawn hours Monday morning. May also see some showers develop off the northeast SC coast this afternoon and overnight as a result of wind speed convergence and weak instability. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 AM Sunday...An increasingly dangerous marine period upcoming as a strong frontal system approaches and crosses the coast late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front Monday night and early Tuesday, 30 KT S wind gusts will be common, as seas offshore build to 5-8 feet by daybreak Tuesday. Additionally, a broken line of TSTMS or squall, may be severe early Tuesday morning moving farther seaward. Wind and seas will become markedly higher in and near TSTMS, since low-level winds in the atmosphere will be strong and capable of being mixed to the sea surface. The storms early Tuesday will be capable of localized gusts to 55 KT. Mariners are encouraged to obtain radar updates to avoid a possible squall passage. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Saturday...A strong cold front will be in the process of moving across the waters near the beginning of the period and should be well east of the forecast area by Tuesday night. Expect steadily improving conditions through mid- week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...43

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