Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040733 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 333 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST TODAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CREATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF RAINFALL TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE GEORGIA COASTLINE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE COAST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA...IN THE VICINITY OF BERKLEY COUNTY SC...BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST. THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HOT SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING...CREATING MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPR 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND COMBINING WITH A WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO EVEN COASTAL SECTIONS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS PINNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FROM TUESDAY WILL PREVENT ANYTHING BEYOND JUST A FEW STORMS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM...MID AND UPR 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 ON THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THE THICKNESSES BEGIN TO DECREASE AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...LOW 90S AT THE COAST AND MID 90S INLAND...BUT LIKE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOO THANKS TO GREATER INSTABILITY ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT ONLY LOW-CHC POP IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BE LED BY A POTENT VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS NOW DIVERGED ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE. FOLLOWING WPC PROGS AS A REASONABLE SOLUTION...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN LIKELY STALL THROUGH THE WKND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WKND. HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE A BIT DEEPER AND THUS THE FRONT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY...SO WILL OPTIMISTICALLY SHOW AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO...AFTER SEASONABLE BUT WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS FROM LOW STRATUS/BR LEADING UP TO SUNRISE. CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE 3 COASTAL TERMINALS...ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. THIS PCPN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF CHS BY 12Z. WILL ILLUSTRATE THE COASTAL TERMINALS DEALING WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS...AND ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION PROGGED FOR THIS AFTN. PCPN TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL INDICATE VCNTY CONVECTION ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN. PCPN SHOULD ALL BE NE OF THE AREA BY SUNSET TUE...WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS SLATED FOR TONIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR SC WATERS AS WE NO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH 10 TO 15 KT WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS PERIOD CREATING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH EACH EVENING WILL HELP WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS RISE UP TOWARDS 20 KTS BRIEFLY WED AND THU EVE...BEFORE FALLING BACK AGAIN EACH NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER OF SEAS...WITH A 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP CREATING 3-4 FT SEAS...UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS EACH EVENING. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND THEN DROP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW LATE. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY BY THE WINDS...WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT SATURDAY AS THE SPEEDS EASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/DRH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/JDW

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