Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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640 FXUS62 KILM 260639 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 239 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures will begin spreading across the area today as high pressure edges in from the west. An upper disturbance will bring a few showers late on Tuesday followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid week. Summer warmth and humidity will return late week into next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Monday...A long awaited cold front is situated northeast to southwest from just south of Wilmington to just north of Kingstree South Carolina. A few showers are breaking out along and south of the boundary as expected as favorable upper level jetting passes by. These should wind down in the next few hours and warrants only slight chance pops through 12 UTC mostly along coastal and southern areas. The front will continue to slowly push offshore through the day and with precipitable water values dropping to below an inch, no convection is expected. I opted for the slightly warmer MET numbers for daytime highs in the middle to upper 80s. Tonight will be very pleasant with lows in the middle to upper 60s with the possibility of even lower values in extreme northwest zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Monday...Primary headlines this period include an upper disturbance in the cradle of a trough aloft followed by unseasonably drier and cooler air for late June on Wednesday. The moisture profiles for late Tuesday appear unsupportive of TSTMS and only depicted showers. Height rises early Wednesday will reinforce surface high pressure, prompting cool air flux with falling dewpoints. Mugginess will disappear and maximums Wednesday even under sunshine 83-87, vastly more comfortable than recently, minimums 60-66 degrees at daybreak Wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Sunday...Cooler and dry high pressure will become established across the forecast area through much of the period. Aloft a ridge is well establish for most of this forecast with a trough moving into the Carolinas by next Sunday. At the surface by the last half of the forecast period, return flow on the back side of the Bermuda high will see a slight increase in chances of precipiation by the end of the period with little larger scale forcing forcing present. High temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal on Wednesday and then slowly warm to normal by Sunday. Lows are expected to be in the middle 60s inland to near 70 at the coast on Wednesday before returning into the low to middle 70s by the end of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period. A little uncertainty or lower confidence for the next few hours as there is an outside possibility of some MVFR BR or stratus. However feel the dry air advection is just enough to keep this limited or non existent. Cloud cover will diminish appreciably later this morning and this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms Tue afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...Winds have shifted across the northern waters with a northerly component now being reported at 41013 and JMPN7 as a cold front eases off the coast. The southernmost waters are probably seeing southwest winds continuing. They to will eventually see north to northeast winds of 10-15 knots which will prevail through the near term forecast period. As usual the sea breeze may distort the typical summertime synoptic flow. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...Manageable but atypical marine conditions since N-NE winds will prevail as high pressure from the west with slightly cooler and drier spreads into area. Seas however should hold at 3 feet or less and winds 17KT or less this period so no caution headline or advisory anticipated. A few marine showers may form Tuesday night as a disturbance aloft skirts by and a few TSTMS near the Gulf Stream may erupt, but move east not into shore. Seas 2-3 feet in a mix of weak SE swell, waning S waves and a moderate N-NE chop. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...High pressure will dominate this forecast with northeast winds at or below 10 knots on Wednesday. By Friday there will be a break in the high pressure ridge and winds will return from the south but only around 10 knots. Seas will generally range around 2 feet with an 8 to 9 second period from the southeast.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...Colby LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...SHK

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