Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270530 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 130 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A front will lift north tonight while a cold front approaches from the west. This second boundary will stall to our west until moving again later in the week and pushing through late Thursday. Drier air will then build in over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1030 PM Monday...It looks like the the warm front has passed just to the north of the forecast area. Some light showers are approaching the coast as a coastal trough forms. This is as forecast. Previous discussion follows: The stationary front that was located just to the south of the forecast area is slowly moving northward as the observations at Kingstree and Georgetown are now reporting a more northeast and east flow with increased dewpoint seen at Kingstree. The water vapor imagery also is indicting the mid and upper moisture has begun it shift northward. Scattered convection has developed along a boundary from Longs, SC to Kingstree. So will continue with a slight chance of POPs from SC this evening. The models continue to show the development of a coastal trough with a low pressure area forming and moving up the coast just offshore on late tonight. So with this low pressure area will increase precipitation chances to ~30-40% along the coast and a 20% chance inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...The short term forecast period will be marked with a cold front sliding into the forecast area and then stalling. This front will be a focal point for showers and isolated thunderstorms each day. On the synoptic scale a large upper-level low just north of Lake Superior will shift to Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. This feature will be bringing a significant air mass change but this does not begin until after the short term forecast period. The slow moving cold front will be the focus for the heaviest rain on Wednesday into Wedensday night with QPF values running between just over 1". Maximum Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to rise to the middle 80s with the warmer temperatures west of Interstate 95. For lower temperatures values will range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Cold front to come through on Thursday according to the slightly preferred GFS though some proverbial points to be made regarding how early or late in the day or at night. Still worth noting that the EC is still much slower with FROPA not until Friday night-a solution that WPC is still not able to rule out. Even with the large and stalled low pinwheeling over the OH valley over the weekend we will remain well in the dry slot by Friday (unless EC is correct) which should bring quiet weather. We may not get into the much cooler air however as it appeared recently and the later part of the period may simply bring seasonable weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Slow moving cold front well NW of the terminals, and a developing weak low pressure along the coast, will maintain ample cloudiness and possible showers through the valid period. A few showers have developed along the coast so far this morning, and this is likely to continue through daybreak. Do not expect coverage to be widespread enough for a VCSH mention, so have added a TEMPO group at ILM/CRE/MYR for periodic and brief MVFR. The inland terminals will likely remain dry as the showers along the cold front to the NW are forecast to dissipate as they drop SE. While cloud cover will be significant, much of it will remain the mid-levels, so light fog is possible overnight at LBT/FLO, with winds just above the surface likely too strong for any IFR vsby restrictions. Scattered showers will again be possible during Tuesday aftn/eve, but coverage is expected to be light enough that no mention of any restrictions has been added attm. Best chance for showers during the day will be along the coast, but will handle this potential with later updates. Winds will be generally from the east and less than 10 kts beneath VFR cigs. More stratus will again be possible Tuesday night, especially along the coast. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Scattered SHRA/TSRA Tuesday through Thursday. Cold frontal passage Thursday. VFR expected fRI/SAT.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030PM Monday...Latest obs continue to show easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts with seas of right around 3 ft. This fits in well with the going forecast. No changes made with latest update. Previous discussion follows: A stationary front is located near the Georgetown coastal waters and is expected to shift northward overnight. To the south a coastal trough will develop with a low pressure area moving to the southern coastal waters by daybreak. Winds will mainly be from the east overnight at 10 to 15 knots with seas ranging between 2 to 4 feet. A 1 to 2 foot easterly swell is also expected to continue through the period. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...As a coastal low shifts northward along the coast, a slow moving cold front will stall before shifting off the coast late wednesday night. winds are expected to shift to the southwest tuesday night but winds speeds are expected to be 10-15 knots. seas will continue to run between 2 and 4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout most of this period. LONG TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Cold front coming through on Thursday though how early or late highly uncertain. There are in fact some currently not favored but still possible model solutions that are 24 hours or more slower. Best forecast possible at this time is to show a later day veer from W to NW with no appreciable change in the very light wind speeds. The cutoff nature of the upper low driving this front precludes any surge of high pressure into the area and so the post frontal flow regime stays light as well. NW winds should be in place both Fri and Sat with seas no higher than 2 to 3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK/DRH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...JDW MARINE...REK/MBB/DRH

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