Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280148 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 948 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THROUGH MID WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 948 PM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WILL RAISE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO SCATTERED AS SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES EJECT NE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BASE...AND THE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSE THE AREA. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE POPS INTO DAYBREAK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY SMALL HAIL MENTION DESPITE THE PASSING OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT...AND NO THUNDER PLANNED SINCE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OFF-SET H9-85 LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT. THE PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BULK OF RAINFALL AND COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS REMAIN POISED WEST OF THE AREA EDGING THIS WAY. A VORTICITY CENTER CRADLED IN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL SCOOT ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC BETWEEN 6Z/2AM-12Z/8AM AND WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COLD-CORE SHOWERS AS AN H7 COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THE POTENCY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY WARRANT INCLUSION OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS AND A CLOSER LOOK WILL BE TAKEN IN 00Z MODEL DATA TO DETERMINE IF THUNDER SHOULD BE CARRIED OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED AND NOT ROOTED TO THE SURFACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING IN THE 30S. TIME HEIGHTS POINT TO A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF COLUMN MOISTURE DURING TRANSIT. BRISK NW WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS PASSAGE/FEATURE...AND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FOR THE 28TH DAY OF MARCH...WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S DURING THE WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY. FOR THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ONLY...AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE 40S BENEATH A LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. IN THE MID-LEVELS THE SHARP 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FALLING TO -6 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS. AT THE SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTING TO REACH 27 DEGREES F INLAND TO AROUND FREEZE ON THE BEACH STRANDS. THUS A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCES FOR A HARD FREEZE APPEAR LIKELY FOR OUR INLAND AREAS LATE NIGHT SATURDAY INTO THE 1ST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND THE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 30 TO LOW 40S ALONG THE BEACH STRANDS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SPRING-LIKE PATTERN UPCOMING FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE...DRIVING COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA...SEPARATED BY WARM TEMPERATURES. BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT ONLY LIMITED POST-FRONTAL CAA. THUS...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THEREAFTER...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BEGIN AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GETS DISPLACED BY RIDGING...AND EVEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE THURSDAY WILL DO LITTLE TO IMPEDE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY...AND THEN PARKS OFFSHORE WED-FRI. INCREASING AIR-MASS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THU/FRI AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT AS AN EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN SETS UP...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...LIGHT DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KFLO/KLBT. ANOTHER AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT KFLO/KLBT FAIRLY CONFIDENT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING WITH TEMPO MVFR AS LONG AS RAIN CONTINUES. VFR WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER 08Z AS GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS CIGS WILL BE MVFR/TEMPO IFR EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING GENERALLY MVFR. MVFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT UNTIL RAIN ENDS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR. VFR EXPECTED BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS SKIES SCATTER. WINDS WILL BE NW AND GUSTY AT TIME. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 948 PM FRIDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS...AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 5-7 FEET ACROSS THE NC WATERS AND GENERALLY 4-5 FT OVER THE SC WATERS. SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP A BIT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO MORE OF AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY...BUT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ENDURE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE BLOWING OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 2 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS GREET MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL BE COMMON...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT THROUGH MONDAY EVE. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AT 15-20 KTS...BEFORE EASING QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN THESE WILL FALL FURTHER ON THE LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL RISE TO 10-15 KTS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO 2-4 FT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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