Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311039 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 638 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA NOW RESIDE. PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY FILLING IN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE PUSHES NE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT EVERY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP TODAY...FEEL 100 POPS ARE WARRANTED. HAVE RETAINED HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR TODAY BASED ON HIGH P/W CONTENT AND STRENGTH OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. LOOKING AT EVENT TOTALS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH...DEPENDING ON LOCATION...WITH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEING FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER TOTALS BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF PRECIP SHIELD. PRECIP WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE EXITS AREA AND MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE GIVES US LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY...WELL BELOW NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT WAS ONCE LOOKING LIKE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD NOW SEEMS RATHER CONVECTION CHALLENGED AS THE STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. I HAVE WALKED BACK POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING VIA A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE MEAN FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE DRIER SCENARIO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...DECENT POPS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS VERY SLOWLY. THE TROUGH WEAKENS FOR THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION IN THE FORM OF A WEDGE EVENT. IT APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SETUP POOLS TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND MAY BE LIMITED TO JUST SHOWERS AND OR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. I ADJUSTED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A STRETCH. TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS WE SHOULD SEE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...WATER VAPOR SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RIDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THUNDER MAINLY OFF THE COAST. LOOK FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION INDUCED CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR...WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS PARTICULARLY INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS OVER TWO INCHES NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY WET THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME BREAKS AFTER THAT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL GIVE US UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. A BIT BETTER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR SC WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL BE KICKING UP WINDS JUST ENOUGH TO BUILD 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. MOSTLY DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...EXPECT A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION MOST OF THE TIME WITH SPEEDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE LAND BREEZE EACH MORNING. SEAS WILL REFLECT THE WEAK WIND FIELDS AND CONTINUE IN A 1-3 FOOT RANGE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...EXCELLENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WILL CONTINUE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/SHK

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