Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 050221 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1021 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...BEST GUESS BASED ON SURFACE OBS IS LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW OVER PENDER COUNTY AND ACCELERATING TO THE NE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE RE-GENERATED OFFSHORE CAPE FEAR...BUT LAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT A QUIET NIGHT. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE LOOPS IT APPEARS THAT THE SEMI- TROPICAL SURFACE LOW HAS NOW MOVED OVER EASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY. IT IS ACTUALLY HARD TO PICK OUT THE CENTER ANYMORE...AS ALL CONVECTION HAS CEASED AND THE LOW IS BECOMING MORE ELONGATED AS IT MERGES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT OF RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOWS PASSAGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY FURTHER CONVECTION. HAVE ALREADY DROPPED POPS FROM THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT THE SKIES A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO. DO THINK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD INCLUDES A WAVE OF HEAT AFTER A COUPLE RAIN-COOLED DAYS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR ...SO AN ABRUPT UPTICK IN DAYTIME MAXIMUMS TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OF NE SC AND SE NC. DEEPER INLAND WHERE RAIN REMAINS SPARSE...MAXIMUMS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF WIND WEDNESDAY WILL AID IN VERY WARM TO HOT MAXIMUMS WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN POP VALUES...AND MORESO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL HELP WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN COOLER MAXIMUMS THURSDAY BY 4-8 DEGREES F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE BASICALLY STATIONARY OVER TEXAS WITH TROUGHING ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. A VERY WEAK OMEGA PATTERN THAT IS. A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO BRING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SLOWLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC GETS A COUPLE OF REINFORCEMENTS FROM WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT AND DRY WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION AT 00Z AND ALL ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WAS WELL EAST AND OFFSHORE. BELIEVE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER LAND IS UNLIKELY. ONCE THE LAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT FROM ILM EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SCT DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS. LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH 6 FT AT 41012...WELL DOWN FROM OVER 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5 FT AT 41110...DOWN FROM 8 FT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTH-EASTERN NC MOVES TO THE NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL ZONES AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT PLAN ON UPGRADING TO A GALE WARNING. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 30 KT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INLAND AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ANYMORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS DROPPING UNDER 20 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SEAS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND. CURRENT HEADLINES MAY EXTEND A LITTLE TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE BUT GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN FORECAST SEAS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT WANT TO TRIM HEADLINE END TIMES. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...A RECOVERY DAY FOR SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY STILL ELEVATED FROM THE WIND FETCH OCCURRING AT THIS TIME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE DROPPED SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WSW TO SW WINDS...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTER OFFSHORE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY UNFOLD THURSDAY. SEAS THIS PERIOD MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH AREAS OF 5 FT SEAS INTO LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20 KT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10- 15 KNOTS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR A SLOW TRANSITION TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS TAKES PLACE. THIS FLOW GETS REINFORCED EARLY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/III/SHK

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