Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241949 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 349 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVES A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FAIR AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF COAST UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO A-TYPICAL HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES LATE TONIGHT...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BEING REALIZED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER MANY LOCATIONS...AS CLOUDS AND MIXING IMPACT RADIATIONAL NIGHT-TIME COOLING TRENDS AFTER 6Z. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG OUR COAST BETWEEN 9Z-12Z/5AM-8AM...TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WHICH MAY SPRING FROM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SHOWERS WOULD BE LOW-TOPPED...WHILE STEERING WINDS GUIDE THEM SSW TO NNE...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR COASTAL STRIPS AND THE CAPE FEAR REGION AN HOUR OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF SUN-UP. MINIMUM TEMPS TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN INTERIOR SE NC ZONES...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR INLAND SITES...AND AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG OUR IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES. SSTS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NOW MAINLY LOWER 60S INSHORE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC IN THE SWODY2 WITH A "SLIGHT RISK" FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR IMMEDIATE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER MINIMAL LOCALLY. A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...CROSSING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 80...DRIVES SURFACE INSTABILITY OF 600-1000 J/KG...INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG THETA-E RIDGING DRIVEN BY A 30 KT SOUTHERLY LLJ. NORMALLY...THIS LEVEL OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION...POSSIBLY STRONG. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE...AND DRYING COMBINED WITH POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS WILL WEAKEN MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PUT ON A LID ON ANY POTENTIAL STRONG CONVECTION. THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFT WITH SOME HAIL OR A STRONG WIND GUST...BUT PEAK HEATING WILL NOT CORRELATE WELL WITH BEST DYNAMICS ON FRIDAY...AND THUS THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW. IN FACT...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS GOING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVING ONLY A SHORT DURATION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE SC COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST POP WILL BE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...FALLING OFF TO SILENT BY NIGHT. MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AS THE FRONT CROSSES LATE...AND WITH ONLY WEAK CAA. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60 AT THE COAST...MID 50S WELL INLAND. BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 5H PATTERN BEGINS TO TREND TOWARDS ONE OF HIGH AMPLIFICATION...WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BULGING 5H HEIGHTS TOWARDS 580DM DURING THE WKND. THIS WILL MAKE SATURDAY A WARM AND SUNNY DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S...NEAR 80 AT THE COAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PLODDING MID LEVEL LOW EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REMAINS THE FOCUS. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE COUPLED HERE. THE MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OR MAY RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS DRY AIR IS WRAPPED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE MODELS CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE...WE COULD SEE SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS SLOWLY ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ITS WORTH NOTING WPC HAS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES IN PLACES FOR THE SEVEN DAY QPF. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...IT COULD BECOME ONE OF THE WETTEST APRILS AT LEAST IN WILMINGTON HISTORY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...IT THEN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. THE NAM IS HINTING A SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. FRIDAY...MODERATELY POTENT VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...LOW CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOW TOPPED DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE...JUST UNLIKELY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ON THE WATERS...BUT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SE-S WINDS OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE WEST...WITH NO ADVISORIES PLANNED AS SEAS HOLD AT 3-4 FEET MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WEAK SWELL IN SE WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS WILL CO-MINGLE WITH GROWING SE-S CHOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT TSTMS NOT EXPECTED NEAR SHORE THROUGH 8AM FRIDAY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST CREATE A PINCHED GRADIENT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO 15-20 KTS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 15 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY...WITH WINDS FALLING TO AROUND 10 KTS AND BACKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS THE WINDS DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 3-5 FT. THESE WILL FALL QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AS THE NW WIND PUSHES HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EASING SPEEDS...AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS WELL TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER FROM THE WEST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS INCREASE FROM A VERY MARGINAL 1-3 FEET EARLY TO 3-5 FEET LATE WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC/DL MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK

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