Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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352 FXUS62 KILM 292355 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 755 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain near to above normal early this week with low rain chances as high pressure prevails. An approaching cold front will bring higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures mid week. The front will likely move through Friday with a return of more typical summertime weather through at least the first half of the weekend. && .UPDATE...
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Daytime convection has diminished across the area, with lingering cells to the west. No changes made to previous forecast. Updated aviation discussion below, and have included a rip current section regarding high risk potential on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Isolated to scattered diurnally driven localized afternoon convection was producing some isolated greater rainfall amounts with a very weak steering flow. Expect this convection to fade away as heating of the day weakens and upper ridge still holds on over the area. Pattern remains similar for one final day on Monday with southerly flow around Bermuda High at the sfc and ridge aloft extending westward into the Eastern Carolinas from the Atlantic. An upper low will edge closer to the Florida coast through Mon, and we could see increased subsidence on the back end of the the low along the Southeast coast. In saying this, expect another day of localized convection along sea breeze, but may see better storm growth farther inland over Central Carolinas. Models showing better chc across the Pee Dee region. Overall, isolated shower activity with pcp water values lower than today, up to near 1.75 inches. Soundings show a little better cap near the coast on Monday. Low temps will be in the 70s tonight. Highs will reach above 90 most places on Monday, with heat index values near or just above 100, but below any Heat Advisory thresholds. The high astronomical tides will be on a downward trend through early this week with diminishing chances of any minor coastal flooding from Wilmington southward, during times surrounding high tide overnight Sunday and Monday nights. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to above normal temps/rain chances *No significant severe storm/flash flood risk Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Offshore high pressure and an inland trough will be giving way to an approaching cold front Tue night. Mainly expect a typical summertime regime through Tue with isolated to widely scattered showers/storms, then scattered to numerous showers/storms Tue night (mainly concentrated well inland toward I-95). With no significant deep layer shear anticipated the risk for isolated severe storms will be very low. Temps will be near to above normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Above normal rain chances through late Wed; near to below normal chances Thu through Sun *Very low severe storm/flash flood risk through the period, with the best chances on Wed *Near to below normal temps Wed; near to above normal the rest of the period Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A cold front will approach Wednesday before slowing down and weakening into late week, possibly pushing offshore by the weekend. This should translate to unsettled conditions with higher than normal rain chances mid week before the return of a more typical summertime pattern with a bit warmer temps and lower rain chances for late week and the weekend. The one caveat could be the potential for weak low pressure to develop off to our south/southeast along the old front over the weekend leading to a bit better rain chances than currently advertised for Sun. The lack of deep layer shear implies more in the way of pulse/slow- moving storms which favors pretty low severe storm chances and a slightly greater flash flood risk. Hot and humid conditions are expected through the period, but heat indices should stay below Heat Advisory levels (105 degrees). && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Daytime convection has diminished across our area. High confidence VFR throughout the 0z TAF period, with elevated winds hindering fog formation overnight. Can`t rule out brief MVFR vsbys around 5 miles near dawn inland, but confidence is low. Cloud heights will be around 2500 ft briefly late Monday morning along the coast, but should remain scattered for prevailing VFR. Have included PROB30 for late afternoon isolated thunderstorms for LBT and FLO. Light southerly winds overnight will increase to around 10 kts during the day Monday, with gusts to 15-20 kts (highest at coastal terminals). Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible due to isolated/scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms through Mon. The potential for increasing flight restrictions will occur midweek as a cold front drops to the area and convection increases in coverage and intensity.
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&& .MARINE... Through Monday...Bermuda High will continue to dominate with a SSW return flow across the local waters mainly around 10 to 15 kts with a spike upward near shore in the aftn through early eve sea breeze. Seas will basically remain 3 ft or less, with a persistent minimal SE longer period swell around 9 seconds and a light chop in afternoon sea breeze. Monday night through Friday...Moderate to high confidence. High pressure will prevail until a stalling cold front nears late week possibly moving through Friday. Winds will be breezy at times, gusting to around 25 kt (mainly through Tue night), but seas should stay 5 ft or less. Thus, the risk of a Small Craft Advisory still seems to be pretty marginal at this time. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents forecasted for the beaches of Brunswick county, as well as beaches north of Myrtle Beach in Horry county, for Tuesday and Wednesday as southerly 6 sec swell builds to 4-5 feet ahead of approaching cold front. Breaking wave heights around 5 feet may be possible on Tuesday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...VAO MARINE...RJB/RGZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...