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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
747
FXUS62 KILM 141507
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1107 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A nearly stationary front will linger across the area into midweek,
supporting the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The front will
gradually dissipate later in the week allowing for the return of
more typical summertime heat and humidity along with a lower risk
for thunderstorms. A cold front will approach during the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 11 AM Monday...No major changes were made to the forecast with
the latest update. Morning stratus/fog have lifted with the day`s
heating while a weak/nearly stationary front persists across the
area. HRRR shows that the primary lifting mechanism today will be
the sea breeze front, especially as convergence along the old
boundary is very weak. Precipitable water values remain above 2
inches thus no reason why scattered showers and tstms could not
develop. The loss of heating this evening will diminish the areal
coverage of storms. Potential exists for areas of stratus and fog
again tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A front will meander across the Carolinas
during this period. Tropical cyclone Gert will be moving N and
then accelerating NE, passing several hundred miles off the
North Carolina coast Tue. A mid-level shortwave trough will
exert some added lift as it approaches Tue/Tue eve and this
coupled with a surface boundary and high moisture content
through a deep layer, precipitable water values will be upwards
of 2.25 inches, will result in numerous to widespread
thunderstorms and showers. The potential for excessive rainfall
will be elevated in areas where cells are able to train. Storm
motions will be on the order of 15 kt. Upper level support will
be in the process of lifting out on Wed which should result in
less convective coverage, so perhaps more scattered that day.

High temps will be around the 90 degree mark and with high
dewpoints, it will feel as if it were 100 to 105 degrees both
days. Overnight lows will be in the muggy mid and upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...A return to summer heat and humidity occurs
late week as the mid-level trough finally gives way to SE ridging.
This ridge amplifies in response to a trough digging across the
west, and will drive increasing thicknesses, and hence temperatures,
into the Carolinas into next weekend. Despite this ridge
expanding from the Gulf Coast, heights locally may be relatively
lowered thanks to several weak impulses moving to the north in
the zonal flow across the Mid-Atlantic. These subtly steeper
lapse rates will combine with PWATs Light southerly winds will
continue to shift around to the NE to E as a cold front drops slowly
south through the waters today. The boundary was just reaching the
tip of Cape Fear running E to NE through the local waters. Winds
will reach up to 10 to 15 kt out of the E-NE behind front. The on
shore winds will push seas up from less than 3 ft this morning to
near 3 with some 4 fters possible later today into tonight.still
above 2 inches, and strong instability thanks to highs into the 90s
to keep the chance for showers and tstms in place each aftn/eve
through late week, although with coverage likely less than we have
seen much of August so far. By Saturday, a cold front will dig
through the OH VLY and then stall in the vicinity causing renewed
good chances for convection and slightly cooler temperatures.
However, with the ridge overhead this front may entirely dissipate
by the end of the period instead of lingering like many of our
summer-time fronts so far this season.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12Z...Widespread LIFR/IFR status was impacting KFLO/KLBT
and KILM. These terminals were along and N of a weak cold front.
Visibility at these sites was IFR/MVFR in BR. At KCRE and KMYR,
the low stratus was scattered and visibility was 5sm or higher.
Conditions along the coast are expected to improve to VFR by
13-14z with conditions improving to MVFR at KLBT and KFLO.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front and seabreeze with outflow boundaries invigorating new
convection. We have included tempo IFR/MVFR conditions in
thunderstorms along the coast between 14-19z and inland between
19-23z. The front is expected to get intermingled with the
seabreeze boundary later this morning and this afternoon, but
will remain in close proximity through the valid TAF period.

Tonight, low stratus and fog will redevelop and we expect the
coverage to again be widespread as winds above the boundary
layer become light. We are forecasting IFR or lower at all sites
after 06z.

Extended Outlook...Numerous to widespread convection on Tue will
result in flight restrictions. Convection should be more
scattered Wed through Fri, but MVFR or lower conditions may
briefly occur in thunderstorms. Low stratus and fog during the
overnight and early morning hours through the period may result
in flight restrictions as well.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Monday...No major changes made with the latest marine
forecast update. Southerly flow around 10 kt will prevail through
the evening with the nearly stationary boundary positioned to the
north of the waters.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A weak front should remain generally upstream
through the period as it meanders across the Carolinas. The
front may briefly move out across the waters late Tue night or
Wed morning. SW winds will dominate, although the wind direction
may briefly take on a northerly or easterly component late Tue
night or Wed morning. The strongest winds will occur Tue afternoon
and eve, up to 15 kt. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft Tue, subsiding to 2
to 3 ft during Wed. Gert will produce an easterly swell of up to
4 ft every 9 to 10 seconds Tue which will begin to decay on Wed.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Broad high pressure offshore will exert
its influence across the waters through late week. This creates
SW winds through the period, with speeds only increasing above
10 kt on Friday in response to a cold front approaching from
the NW. The prolonged fetch around the offshore high pressure
will allow a 1- 2ft/9sec SE swell to persist through the end of
the week, but this will become masked by an amplifying 5 sec SW
wind wave, especially the latter half of the period. These two
primary wave groups will create seas of 2-3 ft Thu, rising to
3-4 ft on Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RJD