Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241115 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 615 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm air will prevail across the Carolinas through Saturday. A cold front approaching from the west will move offshore late Saturday. Cooler and drier air will build in Saturday night through Monday. Shower chances will increase mid week as a warm front moves across the area Tuesday followed by a cold front Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Friday...Barotropic low pressure located several hundred miles off the Georgia coast will slowly move northeastward today, reaching a position about 300 miles off the North Carolina coast late tonight. With very little low-level baroclinicity to work with, this low is essentially a reflection of what was a strong upper level system over the past few days, now weakening with time. Easterly low-level flow north of the Atlantic low will continue today with the coast running a good 5-10 degrees cooler than inland locations. The overall airmass is unseasonably warm for this date with 850 mb temps of +10C to +11C. This should yield highs around 80 inland with mid 70s for the coastal cities, and perhaps only 70 on the beaches themselves. Record highs for today... Wilmington 81 set in 1982 Florence 82 set in 1962 N Myrtle Beach 78 set in 1996 The Carolinas will be located in a col for much of tonight between the Atlantic low to the east and the pressure trough associated with a cold front advancing eastward across Tennessee and Kentucky. Light winds, good low-level moisture, and mainly clear skies may allow for areas of fog to develop. Lows in the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...Low pressure moving northeastward through the Great Lakes on Saturday will drag a cold front into the eastern Carolinas Saturday evening. Ahead of this front the unseasonably warm airmass will continue for one final day with highs anticipated to reach the lower 80s inland with 70s along the immediate coast. While moisture on Saturday will extend up through 850 mb, the 800 mb layer and above is bone dry. A zone of upper divergence and deep lift associated with the right entrance region of a jet max moving through the Great Lakes affects Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic coast, leaving us to the south capped. I am removing PoPs for Saturday with the expectation that we`ll see some moderate cumulus develop during the day capped off by a layer of warm and very dry air between 6000-10000 feet AGL. The cold front itself will move offshore Saturday evening, with cold advection overnight bringing is much cooler and drier air. Lows should reach 40-45, with dewpoints Sunday morning in the 20s. Highs on Sunday will barely reach 60 even with full sunshine. As the next high moves overhead Sunday night look for lows to fall into the 30s to lower 40s, with some potential that some normally colder inland areas could see frost. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...A broad southwest flow aloft will prevail through Wednesday of the extended period. After this a broad trough will move across with a cold front at the surface early Thursday. For Monday through Wednesday a complex scenario with warm advection/front moving across. Guidance has seemingly become slightly more bullish with pops from late Monday through early Tuesday as the warm front is coupled with a shortwave aloft. The forecast has trended in this direction. Somewhat of a lull in pops later Tuesday into early Wednesday before activity ahead of the previously mentioned cold front ramps up. With regards to temperatures, the theme of unusually warm readings rolls on with highs in the 70s sans Thursday along with very warm overnight lows. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z...Weak high pressure will remain in control through the forecast period. Some sporadic mainly light fog will dissipate by 13Z. Winds will be light and variable today with a southeast resultant in the afternoon. Tonight, moisture profiles definitely support fog tonight with good saturation below 500 ft. LIFR conditions are likely after 08Z. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Friday...Low pressure about 400 miles east of Savannah will move slowly northeastward today while weakening. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure out beyond Bermuda will create a considerable easterly fetch extending from Bermuda to just east of the Outer Banks. Large swells generated within this zone will continue to move through the Carolina coastal waters today and tonight with Small Craft Advisories continuing. At last check combined seas at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy were 8 feet every 9 seconds. Even 10-20 miles from shore seas could still reach 7 feet today. Conditions will slowly begin to improve tonight, especially south of Cape Fear. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes on Saturday will drag a cold front into the coastal Carolinas Saturday evening. Southwest winds ahead of the front should increase to 15-20 kt by late Saturday afternoon, then will shift northwesterly behind the front Saturday night as colder air moves into the region. Depending on how long the strong winds blow in the vicinity of the front we could get another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions out of this. High pressure centered over Tennessee Sunday morning will move almost overhead Sunday night, bringing much lighter veering winds. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...South to southeast winds will be in place most of the period. Speeds will be a little sluggish Monday around ten knots or so. By Tuesday speeds pick up somewhat to a 10-15 knot range as a warm front moves across. Significant seas offer nothing out of the ordinary with 1-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ254- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.