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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 091059
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAIN TUESDAY.
COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN LATER TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...TRICKY FORECAST WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
REGARDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. A SHALLOW YET STRONG COLD
AIR WEDGE IS NOW IN PLACE BUT IS FORECAST TO ERODE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WEDGE PATTERNS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT AS FAR AS EROSION GOES...WITH GUIDANCE
TYPICALLY DOING SO TOO EARLY. LACKING A STRONG FEEL FOR WHICH MODEL
IS THE BETTER SOLUTION HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL
SHOW A STEADY EROSION OF THE WEDGE FORMATION LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SLOW TO RISE...BUT THEN
PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AS SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AT THE LOW LEVELS.
WEDGE WILL HOLD ON LONGEST THE FURTHER INLAND ONE GOES...SO WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A WIDE RANGE OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH LOW TO
MID 70S FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ONLY THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WELL INLAND. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES TODAY...MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AT THE LOW LEVELS BUT SPARSE ALOFT...PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WEAK. THIS SHOULD ADD UP TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TODAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER OVERCAST DAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR BACK
DOOR BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM ON TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVED
DYNAMICS WILL LEAD TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH
CONTINUED SHALLOW MOISTURE EXPECT QPF WILL STAY ON THE MINIMAL
SIDE...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SIDE...MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AS EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF AN ALREADY MILD
AIRMASS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK AND DAMPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ONE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. I HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF TUESDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST AND BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD OFFERS A COUPLE OF TEMPERATURE DILEMMAS. THE FIRST IS
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY ALLOW A SOMEWHAT NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE MAV/GFS NUMBERS...WHICH I PREFER SHOW
HIGHS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH IN THE OVERALL
SCHEME OF THINGS IS NOT TOO OUT OF THE ORDINARY. THE SECOND IS A
LITTLE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAV
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE CONSIDERING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN MIXED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SYSTEM FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AT LEAST THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SAY. THE TROUGH IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND IT
APPEARS FORCING WILL BE RELEGATED TO WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW WITH A
BRIEF CAD EVENT SATURDAY THEN THE MAIN FRONT SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE POPS FOR SUNDAY BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE THESE
CAN BE WALKED BACK A BIT. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST/TRENDS.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 12Z...BELIEVE AS THE WARM AIR TRIES TO RIDE OVER THE SHALLOW
COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SET UP FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG FOR
THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF TAF TIME. WEDGE WILL BE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
INLAND...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THE ENTIRE DAY...ALTHOUGH
THINK WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT THE COAST...WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY MIXING OUT THE FOG. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR BY MIDDAY. TONIGHT...FRONT MAY BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT AGREEING WITH THAT SCENARIO...BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BACK
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRESENT LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY AND TO 15 TO 20 KTS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM PRESENT 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THIS
MORNING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER TODAY.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...A FAIRLY BRISK FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
20-25 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE TO GREET MARINERS EARLY TUESDAY. BY
0000 UTC NORTHERLY WINDS OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN
OVER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY THURSDAY AM. SEAS WILL
BE HIGHEST EARLY WITH 3-5 FEET. THERE WILL BRIEFLY BE SOME
RESPECTABLE SEAS WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW BUT THESE WILL BE JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE CWF DOMAIN. SEAS WILL DROP TO 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND
TEN KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST AS
COASTAL TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. EXPECT SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.




&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43