Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160006 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 806 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will be relatively cooler on Saturday behind a cold front but will continue above normal through the weekend. A much stronger cold front will sweep through the area Monday night bringing below normal temperatures through Tuesday. Warmer weather will develop late in the week with rain chances returning by Friday.
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&& .UPDATE...
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A mix of clouds will continue to produce mostly cloudy skies overnight. First round of pcp has faded away but another round of pcp should be making its way into SC after midnight. Most amounts were as little as a trace and up to around a tenth of an inch and not expecting much more tonight. Aviation discussion is updated below.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pre frontal trough and or shortwave moving across the area this afternoon a bit more robust than previous thinking but not much. This activity should continue fading as it moves eastward. A secondary front and associated wave will move across later tonight. Most of the recent high resolution guidance along with some globals are highlighting more of South Carolina and I have adjusted pops accordingly. Saturday appears to be dry but anticipated lingering low clouds will make it less than an ideal spring day. There is an ample supply of mid and high level clouds as well. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Our focus in the short term is the erosion of Saturday`s stalled front in the Cape Fear area, then the arrival of an upper disturbance Sunday evening. Light southerly winds are expected Saturday in the wake the dissipating front. Saturday`s subsidence inversion should begin to weaken Saturday night, especially inland, but the atmosphere should still remain too stable for any convective threat. Mid level moisture trapped near the inversion aloft should tend to dissipate overnight and I`ve dipped forecast low temps into the 52-56 range with better radiational cooling expected. Sunday should see increasing high clouds streaming ahead of the Gulf coast upper disturbance. A cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms accompanying the disturbance should move across Georgia and South Carolina, perhaps reaching across the border in southeastern North Carolina Sunday night. Among the 12z models the ECMWF is the northernmost, the Canadian is the southernmost, and the GFS in in the middle. My forecast PoPs range from 70 percent along the Grand Strand to 30-40 percent across Bennettsville and Lumberton. This moisture should clear offshore before sunrise Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry and significantly colder weather should develop behind a pair of cold fronts Monday. The first front will push through the area Monday morning but will be accompanied only by a modest airmass change. The second much stronger boundary will be pushed through Monday evening by a powerful upper trough moving through the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic states. Forecast soundings show the potential for 35 mph gusts after the frontal passage during a period of strong cold advection that will taper off with the arrival of the thermal trough Tuesday morning. 850 mb temps could dip as low as -4 to -5C before rebounding Tuesday night. During the advective part of this cold wave Monday night, steep lapse rates and good mixing should keep lows in the mid to upper 30s area-wide. After a sunny but chilly day Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s, winds should diminish under continued clear skies Tuesday night. The position of the Canadian high looks a little farther south Tuesday night compared to what I was seeing the past few days and this could result in a little more wind. I`m therefore not planning to hit the frost threat quite as hard. Normal cold spots will certainly see temps dip well into the 30s and those with agricultural interests will still want to pay close attention to Tuesday night. The Canadian high will push off the Southeast coast Wednesday with daytime temperatures rebounding quickly toward 70 degrees. A cutoff low that`s already spent a couple of days over Arizona is shown to open up and kick eastward beginning Wednesday. Although there are still some timing differences between models, this could develop a surface low with Gulf moisture bringing rain chances back to the Carolinas by Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue through much of tonight, but should see some lowering of ceilings after 06z with vcsh/shra as area of pcp moves up from the SW. Sub-VFR conditions with possible IFR ceilings in stratus may develop as winds shift to the north behind cold front passing from north to south after 10z. Inland terminals may see some MVFR fog. Expect conditions to improve to VFR after 20z. Extended Outlook...VFR Saturday night through Sunday. Sub- VFR conditions possible again Sunday night with a second cold front. VFR for the start of next week.
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&& .MARINE... Through Saturday...Overall expect the southwest flow currently in place across the waters to remain through most of the overnight hours. Speeds may increase to the higher end of a 10-15 knot range at times. Winds may briefly turn to the north...northeast early Saturday via a backdoor front but the push is limited and a weak return flow should return in time. Significant seas will see a range of 2-4 feet with most of the four footers confined to just a few hours later tonight. Saturday night through Wednesday...Light winds should veer southerly even across the Cape Fear area Saturday night as Saturday`s stalled front dissipates and lifts north. Light to moderate southwest winds are expected Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. A weak upper level disturbance moving along the Gulf coast Sunday should cross Georgia and South Carolina Sunday night, accompanied by an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity should remain south of Cape Fear, and will be well offshore before the weak cold front arrives from the north Monday morning. This front will shift winds offshore, but the real action will arrive Monday evening when a second front arrives with strong northwest winds that will almost certainly trigger a Small Craft Advisory for 25+ knot winds. Winds should diminish during the day Tuesday as Canadian high pressure builds southeastward. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA UPDATE...RGZ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA/CRM AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...TRA/SHK

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