Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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645 FXUS62 KILM 261950 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 350 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will extend over the area from the north as it shifts slowly off shore through Thursday. A cold front will approach the area late Thursday, crossing the coast early Friday morning. High pressure will follow for the weekend with above normal temperatures expected. Another cold front should move across the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Canadian high pressure will continue to extend south into the Carolinas as it shifts slowly east through tonight. As the high migrates eastward the flow will shift to a more on shore direction. This will help feed moisture back into the area pushing dewpoint temps back up into the mid 50s along the coast with a slower penetration west of I-95, remaining below 50. This will spell out temps back above normal for overnight lows tonight...with an even greater difference along the coast where the brunt of the moist on shore flow will be felt. Expect lows ranging from around 50 inland to near 60 at the beaches. The higher resolution models were hinting at a weak trough becoming more pronounced just off the coast by morning. May be enough convergence along this trough to produce some clouds. As winds shift farther to the SE to S at the surface some of these clouds may move on shore but appears to be to dry to produce any pcp. Also may see some mid to high clouds come streaming in from system approaching from the west. This may add to higher temps along the coast, as well. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...High pressure extending into the Carolinas will be squeezed out by a weak trough just off shore and a cold front approaching from the northwest. The weak trough just off the coast may produce enough convergence through the morning hours to produce some clouds. Moisture profiles show this moisture, as well as some mid to high level moisture from system upstream producing a mainly partly cloudy sky through the morning hours. The NAM is actually producing a few spotty showers in the waters just north toward Cape Lookout. By afternoon, expect temps to soar into the 70s and close to 80 portions of northeast South Carolina in warm southerly return flow. A westerly flow just above the surface will also aid in downslope heating. With relatively cooler water temps in the mid 60s to near 70 expect to see a sea breeze develop. Convergence along the sea breeze boundary will produce some aftn cu and therefore expect partly cloudy skies most of the day tomorrow. Winds should remain southerly through Thurs night which will combine with higher dewpoint air and some cloud cover to allow overnight temps to remain well above normal...55 to 60 most places. The winds will veer around to the W and then NW to N as front sinks S-SE through the morning hours on Fri. Not expecting much in the way of cooler air following the front as ridge builds in from the west with increasing h5 heights. This will combine with a warm start to the day on Fri and will offset any CAA to produce temps well into the 70s once again with a slightly drier northerly wind. High pressure at the surface will establish itself over the area into the weekend. Expect clear skies by Fri night along with a drier airmass following the front and therefore expect temps to drop into the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Quiet and warm weather to dominate the extended as ridging builds aloft and high pressure remains dominant at the surface. The weekend looks beautiful with weak ridging aloft and an elongated area of high pressure extending east to west across the southern tier states. This will produce temps about 10 degrees above climo, and most locations will top out at 80 or better both Saturday and Sunday. Mins both nights will also be quite warm, about 10-15 degrees above normal for the end of October. A weak impulse will move overhead Monday early Monday dragging a mostly dry cold front through the area. Attm will keep mentionable POP confined north of the CWA, and the FROPA will be identified only by a wind shift, somewhat increased cloud cover, and slightly cooler temps - although these may hold off until Tuesday as cold advection lags. Halloween night will be warm and clear. Ridging amplifies across the southeast through the middle of next week, but high pressure axis to the west will keep cool NE winds at the surface, so temps will be somewhat cooler than this wknd, but still well above climo for the date. Once again, no measurable precip is seen during the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18Z...A ridge of high pressure will continue to prevail across the area with a dry column in place. Thus, mostly clear skies and light winds will persist through Thursday morning. KFLO and KLBT may temporarily drop to MVFR due to lower vsbys toward daybreak. Vsbys will generally improve after 13Z Thursday at the inland terminals. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR expected. An isolated shower is possible along with brief TEMPO MVFR Thursday afternoon and evening but not likely. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...High pressure extending into the waters from the north will migrate farther east through tonight. This will help to shift winds around to the NE to E through today and then toward the SE to S by Thurs morning. Gradient will remain relaxed with winds holding between 10 and 15 kts. This will maintain benign seas less than 3 ft. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...High pressure will extend into the Carolinas while a very weak coastal trough develops over the waters. Overall expect winds to continue to veer from E to SE and eventually S as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will drop through the waters early Fri with limited CAA in a light northerly flow. May see an isolated shower or two in the waters but overall expect just some clouds and a slight uptick in winds and seas through Fri night. Expect winds 10 to 15 kts through the period with seas up to 3 ft. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure will slowly move across the waters during the wknd, followed by a weak cold front which will cross offshore early Monday. Ahead of this front, the weak gradient and return flow will create light SW winds of 5-10 kts, before turning to the N/NE during Monday behind the front with an increase in speed to 10-15 kts. Seas will be 2-3 ft Sat/Sun with a SE ground swell and low-amplitude SW wind wave, before a NE short period wave develops on Monday in continued 2-3 ft seas. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SRP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.