Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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628 FXUS62 KILM 251908 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 308 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring warm but otherwise quiet weather through most of Friday. Rain chances will increase slowly on Friday as low pressure tries to consolidate near the Bahamas. This feature could bring an unsettled weekend as it drifts slowly northwestward. Rain chances will gradually decrease early next week depending on the speed at which this system exits.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...A high pressure system will remain centered over the western Atlantic just southeast of Cape Fear through the overnight period. This will keep up a mild southerly flow through the nighttime hours, with temperatures bottoming out in the mid-60s. A deeply-dry column will make for fair skies and dry weather through daybreak on Thursday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will extend over the eastern Carolinas through much of the short term, keeping in fair skies, dry weather and warm temperatures through at least Friday afternoon. This is when forecast uncertainty increases. Guidance continues to suggest that a yet-to-form tropical or sub-tropical system may move towards the south-Atlantic coast on Friday night. This may bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, especially along the coast, in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. It is unlikely that winds associated with this system will be a concern Friday night as guidance still shows a weakly organized and relatively distant system at that time.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Wednesday... Rain chances on the increase on Saturday though how much depends on what shape the Bahamas system takes. A more open trough up and down the coast would favor some coastal rain whereas a more consolidated low near Florida may not. Interesting the the WRF shows the latter but also an area of rain up the coast. With the added cloud cover Saturday will end up seeing a high in the low 80s, generally cooler than those leading up to it. Will show a further increase in rain chances by Sunday as though the system will be very slowly meandering its overall drift should be north and westward. Forecast uncertainty only grows from there as some models show that the system could have a weak reflection (and thus its associated moisture) around through Tuesday. Assuming this comes to pass the ever present clouds will keep highs close to climo (despite the upper ridging otherwise favoring much warmer) while nighttime lows remain a solid category above normal. At some point towards the end of the period we should transition back to increasing sun and daytime warmth in addition to waning POPs.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR conditions through the period. Shallow convective clouds showing a little more coverage this afternoon but should pose no threat to aviation concerns. Column remains too dry to support any significant fog formation. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until the weekend when MVFR gigs are possible in scattered to numerous showers, isolated TSTMS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic just southeast of Cape Fear through the period. This will allow a light south to southwesterly flow of 10 to 15 kts to continue through much of the near term. Winds will taper off to around 10 kts or less by daybreak on Thursday morning. Seas will remain right around 2 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM Wednesday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will extend over the waters through much of the short term, keeping winds light and seas of only around 2 or 3 ft through at least Friday afternoon. However...guidance continues to suggest that a yet-to-form tropical or sub-tropical system may move towards the south-Atlantic coast on Friday night. This may bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, along with gradually increasing winds and seas, into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. However, it is unlikely that winds associated with this system will even be strong enough to warrant any advisories or warnings for the short term as guidance still shows a weakly organized and relatively distant system at that time. For now expecting NE winds of 10 to 15 kts Friday night, with seas building to 3 to 4 ft. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday... Some of the forecast parameters that we have some confidence in are that winds will be onshore and seas will tend to build through the period. Points of uncertainty are more related to the degree of wave building, which is related to the yet uncertain strength of the system. The size of the system will also modify the compass point of the onshore flow, which could wind up from NE to E or SE. Overall though the chance for an advisory appears slightly diminished.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK

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