Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171128 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 628 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warming trend will occur today into Wednesday ahead of a cold front which will drop south through the Carolinas late Wednesday. Cooler and drier high pressure will follow on Thursday. Low pressure moving up from the Gulf Coast will drag a warm front through the area on Friday. High pressure will build in on Saturday before another system brings unsettled weather for Sunday into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 600 AM Tuesday...A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all of northeast South Carolina except for the coastal strip of Horry County. Elsewhere across South Carolina and across North Carolina, the fog will be more patchy and could be locally dense. The fog and stratus is widespread and will hang around through the morning. Visibility as low as near 1/4 mile is expected to slowly improve between 9 am and 10 am and so the advisory is currently in effect til 10 am. Widespread low clouds and some thick fog, especially across South Carolina, blanket the forecast area again this morning, as a pronounced surface inversion hangs on. This inversion is expected to persist through the morning, but should erode as a warm front moves through, by or during the afternoon. Once the inversion does break, considerable dry air above 2 kft will be able to mix down and we should finally be able to see some sunshine this afternoon. We are counting MARINE...on this sunshine to get temps up to forecast values of upper 60s N to lower 70s S. A seabreeze along the more immediate coastal areas will keep highs from eclipsing the mid and upper 60s. Increasing SW winds above the boundary layer will prevent decoupling tonight and lows should be in the upper 50s throughout. This as a cold front approaches from the NW. The column does begin to moisten across the northern most zones toward morning and given increasing frontal lift, can not rule out a shower and will include a slight chance in these areas toward morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...The flow remains largely westerly and marginal moistening of the column is brief with dry air in the mid levels formidable Wed. The cold front is expected to become oriented E-W and should move to our S during the afternoon and early eve hours of Wed. Isolated to scattered showers should not produce more than a few hundreths of qpf where measurable rainfall does occur. We are still expecting the warmest day of the week Wed, lower to mid 70s. The Brunswick County coast and southern New Hanover County will be short changed due to the prevailing flow being onshore, thus mainly shy of 70 here. A brief surge of colder and drier air Wed night with skies clearing as high pressure builds into the area. Low temps will drop into the mid and upper 40s with some lower 50s along portions of the immediate coast and the South Santee River area. This high will quickly move overhead Thu and then offshore Thu night. Clouds will begin to increase during Thu afternoon, but it will remain dry with above normal temps. Eyes will then turn to a storm system, which by this time, will be moving across the Ohio Valley with its complex frontal system trailing south across the Tennessee Valley and south to the eastern Gulf Coast. Moisture advection into the Carolinas will be in full swing toward the tail end of the period as Conveyor belt of deep moisture transports Gulf of Mexico moisture north as 50 kt low level jet begins to impinge on the area. Will show pops ramping up overnight Thu. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Continues to look unsettled through much of the long term period as first system brings some pcp to the area on Fri in a warmer and moister southerly flow. Once this system lifts out of the area, should see a break Fri night into Sat with some drier air and sunshine on Saturday before next system spreads clouds and pcp our way once again Sat night into Sunday. This system may keep clouds and chc of pcp over the Carolinas through Monday. Clouds and pcp will keep less of a diurnal swing with highs reaching into the 60s most days. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Another round of IFR/LIFR conditions this morning will hang in there until around 15Z. Light winds this morning will give way to southwest flow as warm air advection begins. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon. A cold front will approach LBT overnight with a few showers present. Extended Outlook...A cold front Wednesday afternoon may be accompanied by showers. Showers Friday may bring a period of MVFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Tuesday...A warm front will move across the waters today. Light NE or ENE winds will become SW today and then increase to 15 to 20 kt tonight ahead of a cold front. Seas will respond to the increasing wind energy, building from 2 ft or less to 3 to 4 ft overnight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A cold front to the NW will become oriented E- W as it moves across the waters during the afternoon and should be south of all the waters by/during the early eve hours of Wed. SW to W winds Wed will shift to N in the wake of the front. Wind speeds up to 15 to 20 kt are expected prior to the front and then for several hours after the passage of the front. Seas will be mainly 3 to 4 ft Wed and Wed night, although some 5 ft seas across the outermost northern waters will be possible. NE winds near 10 kt Thu will veer as high pressure moves overhead and offshore. Toward the tail end of the period, expect SE and S winds to be on the increase ahead of the next storm system. Seas for Thu and Thu night will be 2 ft or less. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Light and variable winds early Friday will become on shore and eventually southerly as low pressure lifting up through the Mississippi Valley pulls a warm front through the Carolinas. This southerly push will bring seas up to 3 to 4 ft most waters late Friday into early Saturday. A weak northerly flow will develop Sat allowing seas to subside down to 3 ft or less through early Sunday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053-055-056. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL

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