Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161028 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 530 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through today. A warming trend will occur Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front which will drop south through the Carolinas late Wednesday. Cooler and drier high pressure will follow on Thursday. Low pressure moving up from the Gulf coast will drag a warm front through the area on Friday. High pressure will build in on Saturday before another system brings unsettled weather for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Low clouds and some fog blanket the forecast area this morning. A stationary front lies just to our S with an area of high pressure across New England and the mid-Atlantic ridging south across the Forecast Area. Some light rain was ongoing in weak isentropic upglide to our N and this precipitation was sliding E and should move offshore this morning. We expect the low clouds and fog will only slowly lift through the morning hours with skies brightening slightly during the afternoon. However, it will remain mainly cloudy through the day. These clouds will ultimately determine the highs for the day. We are hedging in the direction of the Euro guidance which has been performing rather well since the arrival of the ongoing airmass. Highs should be in the 60s, with near 60 for much of the northern half of the area and perhaps near 70 along the South Santee River. Given a front will be sitting near the southern reaches of our Forecast Area, will also align the forecast with the Euro and several of the other models by including a small POP for the southern portions of the area where frontal lift and convergence culminate. Still, even in these areas, the depth of moisture is shallow and so would not expect significant qpf. The front should move back to the N and across the FA tonight and Tue morning as a warm front as the high begins to move offshore. This will bring the risk of fog and perhaps some spotty light rain. Lows tonight will be in the 50s with temps tending to stabilize if not rise a deg or two toward morning. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...The warm front should be moving N of the area Tue morning. Warm air advection ahead of a cold front should allow for much more in the way of sunshine compared to the first two days of the week. A SW flow will help bring highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s Tue. We will still be in the warm air on Wed, but the column will be moistening up and will include mention of scattered showers that day. However, there is westerly flow through a deep layer and will confine POPs to chance at this time. A back door cold front should move across the Carolinas Wed night. Highest temps of the week should occur on Wed with widespread lower 70s. Coolest temps of the period will occur behind the cold front Wed night, upper 40s and lower 50s.&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Ridge will build and move over the southeast and east coast Thurs into Fri. As the ridge axis shifts east by late Thurs the winds in the mid to upper levels will shift to the SW allowing fro some upper level moisture to spread into the Carolinas, but the column will start out very dry early Thurs. Therefore expect some passing clouds Thurs night into Fri but overall quiet weather to start the long term with a relatively cooler air mass in place and plenty of sunshine on Thurs. By Fri, clouds will increase and so will chance of pcp as low pressure lifts north up the Mississippi Valley with a warm front moving through leaving a deep southerly flow of warm and moist air through Fri into the weekend. The greatest QPF should lie to the west of local forecast area through the morning hours with pcp tapering off through the afternoon hours as system lifts farther north. Winds will shift to the W-SW overnight Fri leaving drier conditions as weak high pressure moves on Saturday, but it looks like another system will follow spreading more clouds and rain into the area for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Temps will stay on the warm side, remaining well above normal through the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 12Z...3.9 Satellite shows abundant IFR/LIFR conditions throughout much of the CWA. ILM is hanging just above IFR and will have to be monitored closely. Look for slowly improving conditions as the morning wears on. An old frontal boundary will try to wave north this evening. IFR conditions will likely return tonight. Northeast flow today with light winds tonight. Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday, accompanied with showers and MVFR. Showers possible Friday. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...NE flow will dominate as high pressure ridges south across the waters today. A front stalled to our S will move back across the waters tonight and Tue morning. Winds will veer to SE late tonight and to SW Tue morning. Wind speeds are not expected to exceed 10 to 15 kt through the period, strongest today. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft today, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft by later tonight. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...A warm front will be moving N of the waters Tue morning. SSW to SW winds will become SW and increase ahead of a backdoor cold front which will move across the waters Wed night. The strongest winds this period will be up to 15 kt Wed and Wed eve. Seas of 2 ft or less Tue will build to 2 to 3 ft by Wed morning with some 4 ft seas Wed. We will be watching for the development of sea stratus and sea fog as higher dewpoints move back across the waters during the period. At this time, we have patchy fog in the forecast for Tue night into Wed. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Weak high pressure will build in behind departing cold front on Thurs. Expect a deeper N to NW flow behind it but on the weak side. Therefore expect seas to lower through Thurs down less than 3 ft by Fri morning. Light and variable winds early Friday will become on shore and eventually southerly as low pressure lifting up through the Mississippi Valley pulls a warm front through the Carolinas. This southerly push will bring seas up to 3 to 4 ft most waters late Friday into early Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD/RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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