Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 070802 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 302 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak high will yield fairly seasonable weather today and tomorrow before a powerful cold front arrives late Thursday. A very cold weekend is then in store for the area with a gradual warmup starting Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 10 PM Tuesday...Precip is long gone as much dryer air filters in behind a departing frontal system. Still looking at lows in the mid 40s by daybreak. Previous discussion follows: 7 micron water vapor band reveals dramatic mid-level drying occurring into the eastern Carolinas with rain now essentially curtailed and sea-bound. Scouring entirely the resident cloud cover remains a separate dynamic requiring into Wednesday to see fruition. Partial clearing however can likely be inferred through the visible band from WSW to ENE into the evening. The muddiness, peeks of stars, and non-agressive winds could prompt a pocket or bank of mist and fog to form overnight. Minimums will bottom out at sunrise, 41-49, coolest over the far SE NC interior and mildest along the Georgetown county coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 312 PM Tuesday...Primary headliners this period is a debut of sunshine Wednesday as weak high pressure moves in, and the onset of an Arctic air intrusion late Thursday. Isolated showers Thursday may preceded the cold but QPF expectations are nil to few hundredths. Coldest portion of this time period daybreak Friday 30-35. The mildest part of this period where readings will reach 60-65, both WED/THU aftn. Expect breezy conditions late Thursday as cold air races in. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM Wednesday...A very cold airmass remains in control on Saturday though as the center of the high builds overhead winds will diminish. Warm advection will begin atop this airmass Saturday night but surface temperatures will still fall below 30 for all but SC beaches. It is then on Sunday when we will appreciate the warming at the surface as high pressure moves off the coast and the chill abates. Moisture will be on the rise in the low levels but zonal flow in the mid levels should preclude much moistening above. This would imply that the next cold front will be hard-pressed to produce any rainfall but some very low POPs seem warranted Sunday night into Monday. This zonal flow will also mean little meaningful cold air with the front. Late period temperatures look seasonable if not a few degrees above.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Guidance has backed off considerably on showing lowered flight categories overnight due to visibility. Since the wind will remain elevated enough for weak mixing this seems plausible. There is little to rout out this low level moisture in the form of IFR ceilings however. This will have to wait until deeper mixing ensues after sunup. VFR from thereafter. Extended Outlook...Fog possible Wednesday night. VFR conditions expected to prevail late week through this weekend.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 PM Tuesday...Have dropped the SCA for AMZ256 in favor of Exercise Caution headlines for the remainder of the overnight hours. Otherwise all continues as before. Latest obs show westerly winds of 15 to 20 kts with 4 to 7 ft seas. Previous discussion follows: Treacherous marine conditions prevail at this time through early Wednesday. Frying Pan 7 feet at 6 seconds, very steep, gusting to 26 knots/30 mph. Closer to shore 5-6 foot pitching waves. Small Craft Advisory flags to remain flapping through the overnight period. Stiff west winds tonight will turn NW, and both directions may impose 25-30 KT gusts. Offshore navigation tonight is discouraged. The ICW can expect gusty crosswinds. Low tide early this evening and again right around sunrise on Wednesday. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 PM Tuesday...Main headliner this period is a brief window of manageable marine conditions on Wednesday with lower sea heights and less wind trending. Even much of Thursday offers opportunity but by mid to late afternoon, the leading edge of an Arctic High will crank up NW-N winds in a hurry and by Thursday night the ocean will become perilous again. Expect deteriorating marine conditions late Thursday afternoon and Advisory conditions all of Thursday night. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As OF 3 AM Wednesday... Chilly high building in from the north Saturday to bring an abating N wind that will veer slightly. Additional veer to E early Sunday as a weak boundary develops along the coast. Later Sunday the wedge will break down, bringing a rapid turn to the S or SW. Wind speeds will be on the rise as a cold front approaches from the NW but advisory not expected at this time, but cautionary headlines are possible.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB

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