Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221700 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 100 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and an associated cold front will move offshore this morning. An area of low pressure aloft will bring a slight chance of showers this afternoon and again on Monday. Typical Summertime temperatures and mainly dry weather will develop by the middle of the week with above normal temperatures into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1215 PM Sunday...The CU/SC field has transitioned nicely across the fa once insolation was able to make it to the sfc. Have expanded this cu field across much of the ILM SC CWA given latest vis sat imagery trends. Will also expand the POP field across the remaining Temps aloft will slowly drop ahead of the upper low dropping southward. Model consensus places the cold core upper lows furthest southern extent across eastern NC by daybreak Mon. 500 mb temps by morning will have dropped from -14 degrees C early this aftn to -20 degrees C by daybreak Mon. A s/w mid-level trof rotating around the upper low is progged to push across portions of the FA late in the pre- dawn Mon hours and continuing thru daylight Mon mid- morning. Models have been consistent with this along with avbl moisture. The question is will there be enough instability to mention thunder during the pre-dawn Mon hrs. For now, have kept thunder out until daylight Mon where just enough insolation becomes avbl. With more cloudiness and threat of pcpn tonight than previously fcst, will tweak min temps upwards by a degree or 2. previous....................................................... As of 845 AM Sunday...Post frontal very light rain or drizzle accompanied by patchy fog will occur this morning as a stratus/stratus fractus post frontal cloud deck persists thru the mid to possibly late morning hrs. This pcpn activity will occur mainly across the ILM NC CWA. From midday thru early evening...the cloudiness across the area will transition to a cu/sc field with breaks in the cloudiness, especially across the ILM SC CWA. Temps thru the morning hrs have been adjusted lower, mainly across the ILM NC CWA to account for this cloud deck and spotty pcpn. Temp trends will resume to the previous fcst after the noon hour.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Cold mid-level temperatures associated with upper level low pressure near Virginia Beach Monday should spark more scattered showers Monday afternoon. Coverage should be a bit less than on Sunday due to drier low-level conditions yielding less instability. Temperatures should remain well below normal with highs only reaching the lower 70s for coastal SE North Carolina, mid 70s from Lumberton to Myrtle Beach, and maybe some upper 70s from Darlington to Florence. (Normal highs are in the lower to middle 80s this time of year!) Surface high pressure building eastward from the Plains states will reach the Carolinas Monday night providing light winds and mainly clear skies. Radiational cooling should drop lows into the mid 50s for most locations away from the beaches. On Tuesday light winds and plenty of sunshine coupled with warm advection as the upper low and surface high both move offshore should allow temperatures to soar into the 80s away from the beaches. Mainly clear skies will continue Tuesday night with lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Middle to later half of the week will be marked by surface high moving off the coast and weak ridging aloft. Surface high just off the coast Wed migrates to the a more typical Bermuda High location Thu through Sat. As the high offshore drifts east a 5h ridge will build over region, leading to warming and drying conditions during the period. Latest GFS and ECMWF depicting a much stronger 5h ridge than just 24 hours ago. The mid level ridge remains a "dirty ridge" with moisture aloft emerging from the southwest and topping the ridge. While chances will be very low this will at least mean isolated afternoon convection will be possible late in the week. Will carry silent afternoon/evening pop Thu through Sat but confidence is low. temperatures will run above climo through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...3.9 satellite shows stratus pressing southward along with a cold front. IFR conditions will be intermittent at FLO, while predominate at the other terminals for the first two to three hours of taf time. The cold front will continue to drift southward, with a cold pool aloft moving southward as well. This cold pool may kick off some convection this afternoon, particularly if we get some sun. Light winds tonight with mainly scattered skies. Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR conditions on Monday, otherwise VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1215 PM Sunday...Cyclonic flow around the upper low dropping south will result in nNW to N winds at 10 to occasionally 15 kt thruout this fcst period. significant seas will hold around 3 ft for the waters from Cape Fear northward...and 2 to 3 ft south of the Cape to South Santee River. A decent 1 to 2 foot ese ground swell at 8 to 9 second periods will primarily dominate today into tonight. The offshore nnw-n wind chop will become more evident the further away from the immediate coast 1 progresses. This wind chop will be limited in growth due to the offshore nature of the wind and resulting small fetch to grow. Showers and isolated storms may move off the mainland later this aftn and evening. A mid-level s/w trof will begin to push across the waters toward daybreak Mon, resulting with another bout of pcpn moving off the mainland during this time frame. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Low pressure will develop Monday morning along this morning`s cold front which should be located a couple hundred miles offshore. The low will move northward and away from the area, but will help to keep northerly winds blowing around 10 knots with some 15 kt winds possible Monday morning north of Cape Fear. Scattered afternoon showers may again develop Monday due to the cold and unstable conditions aloft. For Monday night through Tuesday night the focus will shift to high pressure building in from the west. This high should bring delightful weather with light winds and no appreciable rain chances. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Surface high centered just east of the waters Wed morning will drift farther east Wed night, setting up in the typical Bermuda High location Thu. Southwest flow is expected across the waters through Thu night with speeds on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range. Sea breeze is likely to develop each afternoon, resulting in onshore flow close to 15 kt near the coast. Seas 2 ft or less Wed and Thu.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RGZ

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