Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211045 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 645 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A WEAK FRONT TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO HIGHER HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS A HALF MILE IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 730 AM. THE CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. APPROACH OF A SURFACE WAVE AND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING WITH THE UPPER JET IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY WILL BE GROWING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAKING AROUND 2500 J/KG AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH AROUND 35 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND POINTS NORTH. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL...IN THESE AREAS AS WE DO EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BECOME RATHER WELL ORGANIZED. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. WHILE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE N OF THE AREA...WE ARE EXPECTING MID LEVEL WINDS TO REACH AROUND 40 KT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH TENDS TO BE A DRYING AND MORE SUBSIDENT FLOW FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...WHICH SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE IN THE MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATE DAY AND THIS EVE...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR REACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS MAY BRING AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT NO RAINFALL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...FAIR WEATHER WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THOUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY. MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90 BY WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...GOING FROM LOW TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGE WEDNESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LARGELY OFFSHORE... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. GUIDANCE STILL INSISTING THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND ADVECT ON SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO KILM. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO -SHRA TOWARDS DAWN FOR THIS ONE TERMINAL. TOUGHER CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. GROUND IS SATURATED AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS ZERO. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT THANKS TO SURFACE WINDS THAT WON`T FULLY DECOUPLE NEAR THE COAST...AND A LLJ RISING TOWARDS 20 KT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH NEAR-SURFACE SATURATION IS STILL EXPECTED FOR SOME MVFR FOG...AT KCRE FOR LOCAL EFFECTS...AND KFLO/KLBT THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS. KFLO PROBABLY HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT VSBYS JUST ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS SINCE FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST JUST A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. PATCHY LOW STRATUS AT KILM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A CEILING THROUGH SUNRISE. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST OVER 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY TS ATTM...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS...FAVORED AT KLBT/KILM...WHICH MAY NEED A TAF MENTION WITH LATER ISSUANCES. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVE...AND THEN N OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR N MOVES FURTHER AWAY. A DEVELOPING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET PERIOD ON THE WATERS WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WITH SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...JDW/RJD

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