Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271505 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1105 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BY THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...A DEFINITIVE FEEL OF FALL OUT THERE TODAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES...NE WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUD COVER. IT FEELS LIKE A COLD FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH - BECAUSE IT HAS! WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND NE WINDS HAVE ENVELOPED THE ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THIS FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED AS STRATUS AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THESE COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IMPORTANT...BECAUSE THE LAND-TO-SEA GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THUS ONLY A VERY WEAK (OR NO) SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT PINNED OFFSHORE OR MAYBE JUST ALONG THE COAST...AND MAINTAIN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. FOR THIS REASON...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT STRONG TSTMS...AND IN FACT HAVE USED THE RW WITH ISOLATED T WORDING IN THE WX GRIDS. BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER SHOWER...BUT AN OVERALL QUIETER DAY IS ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION WILL WANE AFTER DARK AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS LOOKS POSSIBLE AS THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. WITH THE COOLER NE FLOW HOWEVER...MINS WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 60S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA...LOW 70S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH MAY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST ON FRI LEAVING A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE BROADER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE A MORE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. THE DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ON FRI SHOULD KEEP PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR 1.5 INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND DIMINISHING INLAND. THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD. BY SATURDAY...THE GREATER ON SHORE PUSH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. WINDS MAY STILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE MAINTAINING A DRIER FLOW OVER NC INITIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT BY THE END OF SATURDAY...PCP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE UP NEAR 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LONG TERM FORECAST TOTALLY DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA...WHICH...AT THIS POINT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. NHC FORECAST KEEPS ERIKA ON A ROUTE UP THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND REACHING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY MON EVE. THE TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TAKING THIS TRACK AS WELL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACK ERIKA FARTHER WEST AND KEEP IT WEAKER...WHILE THE PREVIOUS RUNS PRODUCED A HURRICANE OVER CAPE FEAR BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS TIME...WILL REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WILL KEEP WITH MORE OF AN ON SHORE AND THAN NORTHERLY FLOW AS IF ERIKA WAS TRACKING OFF THE COAST TO OUR EAST. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ERIKA QUITE CLOSELY. LOOKS LIKE GREATEST EFFECTS FROM ERIKA MAY BE EXTREME RUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SWELLS AND STRONG ON SHORE PUSH AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO EXPECT AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT AS EARLY AS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION AND GREATEST POPS FOR TUES INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MINS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NE ALONG A WEAK FRONT LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION IS DECREASING AT KCRE/KMYR WHILE PERSISTING AT KILM WHICH IS NEAREST THE LOW. VCTS WILL BE LIKELY AT KILM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO UNTIL THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE NE AND E. POST FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING...BUT COULD RE- DEVELOP AT KILM/KMYR/KCRE IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. BEST LIFT TODAY THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF VCTS WILL BE KCRE/KMYR/KFLO. THIS COINCIDES WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LYING JUST S OF THOSE TERMINALS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT MAY BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. WITH A MOIST NE FLO TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT KFLO. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WOBBLE LOCALLY BUT PROBABLY NOT PUSH BACK TO THE WEST TOO MUCH TODAY. THE SEA BREEZE...WHICH HAS BEEN THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR STORMS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE WEAK...AND THUS SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS EVEN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL STILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE...ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE TODAY THOUGH...NE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND SE OTHERWISE. FORTUNATELY...SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...SO THE SHIFTING WINDS SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON THE SEA STATE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A 2-3 FT WAVE AMPLITUDE THANKS TO A 10-11 SEC SE SWELL. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF WATERS ON FRI WITH MORE OF A NE WIND FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC WITH CENTER TO THE NORTH OF AREA WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AND E-SE BY SUN NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SPIKE EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. KEEPING SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITH A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MIXING IN WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LONG TERM FORECAST BECOMES MORE DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF ERIKA. OVERALL EXPECT ON SHORE PUSH WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 4 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY TUES MORNING...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO RAMP UP AS WINDS AND SWELLS FROM ERIKA BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE GREATEST AFFECT FROM ERIKA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS WILL COME TUES INTO WED....BUT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES MAY MAKE IT A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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