Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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120 FXUS62 KILM 200124 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 924 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated in the days ahead, as an upper ridge builds from the west. The ridge will bring hot and humid conditions late this week through the weekend. Rain chances may increase early next week, as a surface trough deepens inland. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Rather weak and amorphous pressure pattern will prevail through the near term with the Bermuda ridge extending westward across the Carolinas and a weak but persistent lee-side trough extending across the Carolina foothills. Earlier convection that fired up along a boundry in the Cape Fear region has mostly faded, with high-res guidance giving us only isolated pop-up convection for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. A consensus of guidance hints at the possibility of convection again developing overnight in the Cape Fear region, much like this morning`s cluster of storms that moved from south to north through New Hanover and Pender counties. This same guidance brings isolated convection mainly to our coastal counties for Thursday. Temperatures overnight will run right around normal with mid 70s for most locations. A warming trend commences on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values of around 100F. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Two upper ridges, one centered over the western Atlantic and the other over MO "reconnect" Thursday night as upper low retrogrades south and west into JAX. At the surface the gradient will be quite weak as we sit between two areas of high pressure. The area will be rain-free but some fog is tough to rule out. Friday into Friday night the upper low continues to retrograde and weaken allowing the two ridges to further connect to our north while a surface piedmont trough takes shape. Though the latter and the healthy seabreeze will both try to serve as foci for thunderstorm development it looks too dry with midday forecast soundings showing dewpoint depressions of 25C not uncommon at some levels above the boundary layer. Rain-free conditions will persist into Friday night and once again some areas of fog seem possible due to the weakness of the piedmont trough keeping winds light. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...The first half of the extended period, basically the weekend will feature mostly dry conditions with temperatures somewhat above normal. These conditions will be provided by a weak mid level pattern and Bermuda High Pressure at the surface. The mid level capping is not quite as prominent on soundings as it has been in recent days, but with mid level moisture lacking convection will still drive a hard bargain. The second half of the extended, early next week shows more favorable conditions for convection as cooling aloft and an increase in column moisture to well over two inches warrants. Temperatures fall slightly from the weekend`s warmer readings. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Isolated showers will dissipate through midnight. Stratus and fog are expected to be develop between 08-12z and did include IFR at most of the terminals during this time. Otherwise, prior to 08z and after 12z, VFR is expected. However, with the lingering impacts of the upper trough, can not rule out showers and thunderstorms on Thu and possibly as early as Thu morning. Showers should be isolated to widely scattered. The probability of convection moving across a terminal to produce flight restrictions is too low for inclusion in any of the TAFs at this time. Extended Outlook...VFR except for brief periods of lowered cigs and vsbys in isolated convection through Monday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A weak pressure gradient will prevail through Thursday with the western extension of the Bermuda ridge over the waters and a trough of low pressure lingering inland. Winds will remain primarily from the SW at around 10 kts through the period with seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Conditions generally unchanging through the period and they will be typical of the time of year. Wind will be out of the southwest due to Atlantic high pressure and a piedmont trough will struggle to develop late in the period. Spectral wave bulletins suggest that a 10 second SE swell becomes more pronounced than the 4 second wind chop for a general forecast of 3 ft seas. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Bermuda High Pressure will maintain a summertime flow across the waters. Mariners can expect a southwest flow of 10- 15 knots with some late morning/afternoon acceleration with the sea breeze near shore. Significant seas, without the assist from any meaningful swell component will fall into a range of 2-4 and mostly 2-3 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJD

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