Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160824 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 424 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will continue to cover the eastern United States through next week. Hurricane Jose will lift north, expected to move between the North Carolina coast and Bermuda Sunday and Monday. This will produce an increased rip current risk into early next week. Temperatures should warm well above normal by next Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Saturday...Very shallow patchy ground fog will dissipate shortly after daybreak this morning. Moisture profiles and soundings show a very shallow layer of moisture mainly below a couple of hundred ft with a decent dry layer above that for a few thousand ft. This remains in line with shallow ground fog into the morning. Plenty of dry air and subsidence will remain across much of the area through this afternoon as sfc high pressure extends down from the north and ridge extends up from the south aloft. Soundings show decent subsidence inversion right above 8k ft with dry westerly flow above. This will keep a lid on any deeper convection, but there will be an increasing NE to E flow below this inversion allowing for an increase in moisture. The increase in winds and moisture will be just enough to produce aftn cu and perhaps a few shallow showers around this afternoon, mainly along the sea breeze boundary just inland. The ILM sounding shows a decent saturated layer between 3 and 7k ft late this afternoon into early this evening. Have included some iso showers in an area mainly just inland from the coast to account for this. Farther inland toward the I-95 corridor, it should remain drier with just some aftn cu present. By tonight we will begin to feel the peripheral effects from Jose as it begins its trek northward. The latest track keeps the center about 350 miles to the east as it passes by Sunday through Monday. Looking at satellite, the convection remains mainly to the east side but some bands of moisture should reach out far enough to affect the Eastern Carolinas heading into Sunday morning. The moisture profiles show an increasing NE to E wind above through the low to mid levels. This will aid in the on shore flow and increase clouds and the chc of showers by the end of the period, daybreak Sunday. Pcp water values remain near 1.25 inches or below in drier air and northerly flow well inland, but begin to increase above 2 inches just along the coast in the on shore push of moisture into early Sunday. Therefore have included increasing clouds and a slight chc of showers at that time. Temps will remain on the warm side through the perio with mid 80s for high temp this aftn and mid 60s to near 70 along the coast for overnight low tonight. WNA shows an ongoing longer period 12 to 14 sec SE swell from Jose reaching our coast today through tonight. This will increase the threat of stronger rip currents through today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Saturday...Broad and ill-defined high pressure over eastern CONUS in combination with Hurricane Jose well offshore will keep up a steady N to NEly flow over the eastern Carolinas through the Short Term. This will keep temperatures right around normal both days with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Hurricane Jose is projected to move generally north during this period and its winds will not even remotely be a threat to the local area. However, local beaches will see enhanced rip current activity due to long period swell generated by Jose. In addition, guidance suggests moisture moving around the back side of Jose in the form of an outer rain/shower band could impact the forecast area, primarily on Sunday and along the coast. Sunday may also see extensive cloudiness due to this stream of moisture. Monday looks dry with subsidence taking hold in the wake of distant Jose.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 PM Friday...Although Hurricane Jose is expected to remain east of the Cape Fear and Grand Strand areas early next week, it may scrape close enough to the NC Outer Banks to bring some wind and rain there. A longwave ridge across the eastern United States will create a slow and hard to predict motion of Jose after it gains latitude beyond the Carolinas. This ridge should also provide generally dry weather for the Carolinas with temperatures climbing well above normal through the period. 850 mb temps of +15 to +16C degrees Monday and Tuesday should increase to +17C to +18C by Thursday. While our latest forecast isn`t quite as warm as the latest MOS guidance, it is possible inland temperatures could poke back to 90 degrees by Wednesday or Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...MVFR to as low as LIFR fog showing up due to very shallow layer of moisture near the ground. The lowest vsbys should occur across SE North Carolina including the ILM and LBT airports. The moisture profiles show very dry layer above this very shallow moist layer and low level winds will slowly start to increae overnight. This will help eliminate anything more than patchy shallow ground fog and could produce some sct stratus. Otherwsie VFR conditions should dominate after 13z through the remainder of the TAF period with light NE to E winds across the terminals. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period as Jose passes offshore of the coast, but possible MVFR ceilings and gusty showers in outer periphery of Jose mainly affecting coastal terminals. The gusty surface winds will be out of the N-NE mainly at coastal terminals Sunday through Monday as Jose passes east of the area.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...As Jose begins the trek northward winds will begin to veer more to the N-NE between it and high pressure reaching down from the north today into tonight. Expect NE winds up to 10 to 20 kt across the waters by Sun morning as gradient tightens further. Seas will ramp up in combination of increasing northerly winds and this longer period SE Swell. A Small Craft Advisory for hazardous Seas has been issued for long period up to 12 to 14 second SE swell from Jose continuing through at least tonight. Long period waves will cause inlet turbulence during the outgoing tidal flows, and breaking of larger than normal waves near shallow areas and sand bars. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Expect a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas will be in effect through the Short Term as long period swell from distant Hurricane Jose impacts the waters. Winds will remain below Advisory criteria through this period, peaking at 15 to 20 kts from the NE on Sunday as Jose makes its closest approach. Even so, Jose will remain distant from the waters, moving in a generally northerly track through the near term. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday..As Jose moves north and well to the east of the coastal waters the winds will be from the north at 15 to 20 knots north of Little River and 10 to 15 knots to the south. The winds will back to the northwest and west with time. Speeds will drop to 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday and 10 knots on Wednesday. Swells from Jose will be in full force on Monday with height 6 to 8 feet north of Little Rive and 5 to 7 feet to the south. With time the seas heights will diminish as Jose pulls to the north. Seas are expected to drop below 6 feet Monday night.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from noon today to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...RGZ

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