Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231059 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 659 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY THIS MORNING...HIGH AND DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NW AND W THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AND WE ARE FORECASTING A SUNNY DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. FLAT TO SUBTLE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY BRING SOME CIRRUS TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY LATER TODAY AND THIS MODIFICATION PROCESS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE IN THE COMING DAYS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR THOSE OF WED...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...LOWER 70S. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HANG ON LONGEST. UPPER 60S WILL BE MOST COMMON ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND CAPE FEAR COAST THROUGH WHITEVILLE AND LUMBERTON AND POINTS NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. MID 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE REGION. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE AREA ON SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN DRY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. SUBSIDENCE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN A LITTLE TIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE RESULT...NNW TO NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE THROUGH MID MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. THE DIRECTION WILL VERY SLOWLY VEER TO NORTH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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