Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011731 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 131 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE MASSIVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE FEATURE OF NOTE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE SEA BREEZE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND LATER THE LAND BREEZE. CONVECTION HAS YET TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE BACK OFFED POPS SOMEWHAT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL PERIODS WITH THE LAND BREEZE AND ATLANTIC SHOWERS DEVELOPING. VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND I HAVE OPTED FOR THE WARMER MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE. ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN. FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...A LAND BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTED MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STARTING LATER AND THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW-W AT 5KT AND S AT 10-15KT IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE IN KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS AT KILM. AFTER 13Z VFR EXPECTED TERMINAL WIDE WITH SW-W WINDS...BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON SHAPING UP TO 10-15 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST WATERS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR

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