Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262323 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 723 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NO DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OTHER THAN ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW UNDER MASSIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BEGINNING AROUND 3800FT HAS BROUGHT SOME SCATTERED SC ESP ALONG THE COAST WHERE ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOIRE PLENTIFUL. THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSIONS STRENGTH IS BETTER INDICATED BY THE DRYING RATHER THAN THE STRENGTH OF THE TEMP INVERSION ITSELF...DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ABOVE 600MB APPROACHING 50C. MOST AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT STILL JUST ENOUGH WIND/LOW DEWPOINTS TO PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE FOG. NC COAST WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST SLATED FOR CAPE FEAR REGION. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLED ALONG COASTAL NC BUT HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO INLAND TO SIMILARLY MITIGATE FOG CHANCES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CRISTOBAL WILL BE PASSING BY MORE THAN 400 MILES OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST WED MORNING WITH NO DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT ON WED AND STRENGTHEN ON THU. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE SUBSIDENCE AS THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RISE...RESULTING IN CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON WED AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON THU. THE BEACHES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID 80S ON WED. A MORE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ON THU SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES AS THE SEABREEZE IS DELAYED AND REMAINS PINNED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN...EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW NIGHTTIME TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS THE MID AND UPPER 60S WED NIGHT AND TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THU NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURES THIS WEEKEND. 5H RIDGE OVERHEAD FRI WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY AND PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY SAT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. SURFACE AND 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WILL SHOW POP INCREASE ON SUN BUT THINK BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON/TUE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING ON PROLONGED AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. MON/TUE MID LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE WEAKER AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND STRONGER PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND ONLY PATCHES OF FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA. AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL STAYS WELL OFFSHORE AND THEREFORE CREATES NO AVIATION IMPACTS...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD ON TAP. GIVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DRIER LOW-LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE...NEW SWAN DATA CAME IN AFTER SOME TECHNICAL PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL. ITS NEW OUTPUT IS MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT THINKING. AND WHILE IT DOES SHOW THE 6 FT SEAS DROP OUT OF GTOWN THEY DO RETURN LATER ON AS THE SWELL ENERGY RAMPS UP. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE SWELLS LOOKING A BIT STRONGER THE ADVISORY HAS IN FACT BEEN LENGTHENED INTO TOMORROW FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. WAVE SHADOWING WILL KEEP THE 6 FOOTERS OUT OF HORRY COUNTY DUE TO WAVE SHADOWING IN THE NE FLOW AND THE MAIN THRUST OF THE SWELL ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF CAPE FEAR LATE TONIGHT. SCEC HEADLINES MAINTAINED THERE. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAKEN BY ABOUT 2MB THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD A SMALL DECREASE IN GRADIENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER THE POSITION OF THE HIGH PAIRED WITH THE WELL OFFSHORE HURRICANE CRISTOBAL YIELDING ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS IN THE RESULTING NE FLOW. THIS IS NOT QUITE THE SWELL ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM HOWEVER...THE MAIN SWELL FRONT IT PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS WNA SHOWS DOMINANT PERIOD JUMP FROM ABOUT 8-10 SECONDS TO 15 SECONDS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME (CURRENTLY 41036 REPORTING 8 SECONDS). AT THIS TIME THE STORM WILL BE NOT ONLY MOVING QUICKLY TO THE N/NE BUT ALSO ACCELERATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DECREASING WIND WAVES AND THE INCREASING SWELL ENERGY...WHICH WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHADOWED BY CAPE FEAR FOR MOST OF THE BRUNSWICK WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SWELL ENERGY WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 6 FT... MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INTO WED WITH AN EXPECTATION THAT 6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A HEADLINE FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR AMZ254. THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL BE SE WITH A PERIOD UP TO 12 TO 15 SECONDS. WINDS WILL STILL BE FROM THE NE AND N ON WED...BACKING TO THE W WED NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH CRISTOBAL MOVING NE...BUT PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO SW THU AND THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT WED MORNING...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST WILL KEEP WIND FIELD LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE AROUND 10 KT...THOUGH WITH INCREASED SPEEDS NEAR SHORE DUE TO SEA BREEZE. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT AND SUN WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BUT GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN BE ACTIVE SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST ON FRI. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL BE THE DOMINANT WAVE TYPE WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW RESULTING IN LONG PERIOD SWELLS LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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