Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 141936
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
336 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Well above normal temperatures will continue Friday as high
pressure remains offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
return Friday evening as a cold front approaches. Another cold
front will move through the area Sunday night. Dry and much colder
air will build in behind an even stronger front Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure maintains quiet weather overnight. Weak return flow
this evening will help dew points re-establish themselves in the
upper 40s to around 50 this evening. This more humid air mass will
keep overnight lows in the low 50s. Light boundary layer winds
tonight should keep widespread fog from developing, although patchy
fog is possible near low lying swamp/wet areas and bodies of water.
Remaining warm and dry on Friday. A well mixed boundary layer will
keep recently recovered dew points in the mid 50s just west of the
immediate coast. Minimum RH during the afternoon could drop into the
30%-40% range in these areas. Gusty winds are likely across the
entire CWA with afternoon gusts up to 25 mph possible. Slightly
stronger winds are possible near the coast where an afternoon sea
breeze is likely.
CAMs suggest shower activity will begin to approach the area late
tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow evening. Limited instability
exists during this time period and a thunderstorm is possible as
this unorganized line of showers moves to the south and east. Gusty
winds aloft and low level shear could combine with an isolated storm
to produce a damaging wind gust or a tornado. NSSL Neural Network
Convective Hazard Forecast keeps the chance of any severe weather
below 5 percent indicating instability will remain the limiting
factor, favoring the warmer environment to our south. Waning
instability around sunset will see the threat end quickly, becoming
showers and non-threatening thunderstorms by tomorrow evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
We`re focused on multiple weak weather systems that will bring
unsettled weather through the weekend. The first system is an
upper level impulse that should move eastward across the
Carolinas Friday night. Models have painted varying coverage of
showers and t-storms with this feature for days, but today`s
12z models are increasing the potential for measurable rain
compared to yesterday`s depictions. Forecast PoPs have been
increased to 60 percent and thunder will be maintained in the
forecast given rather steep lapse rates aloft and model
indications of upwards of 1000 J/kg of conditional instability.
As the upper impulse pushes offshore Saturday morning, mid level
warming and drying will build overhead, capping the atmosphere
to all but shallow convection. At the surface a weak cold front,
pushed south by departing low pressure well offshore, should
stall near Cape Fear. Convergence along this stalled front could
help a few showers linger throughout the day, but very shallow
depth of instability (surface to 750 mb) should limit coverage.
The front should return north Saturday night.
Sunday should look similar to today or Friday with southwest
winds ahead of a front plus sunshine boosting temperatures well
above normal. A series of weak upper disturbances should pass
across Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina Sunday night,
leading to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This
potential convective cluster could extend northward across a
portion of the Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions, but model
trends over the past few days have shifted southward. Another
cold front should approach the coast late Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The new airmass building Monday behind the early morning front
will be cooler and drier with highs anticipated to only reach
the upper 60s. While most models dry the column out sufficiently
for no rain chances, the GFS for several runs has been showing
steep lapse rates intercepting enough residual moisture for
showers to develop Monday evening along a second stronger cold
front. Regardless, all models show a burst of strong cold
advection developing Monday night behind this front. Northwest
winds gusting to 30 mph will accompany Canadian air that should
cover the area. Low temps by Tuesday morning should be in the
30s all the way down to the beaches. Fortunately there should be
enough wind Monday night to keep the boundary layer well mixed
and low temperatures should remain uniformly in the mid to
upper 30s, even in normally colder locations.
Where impacts look more likely to occur is Tuesday night. The
Canadian high should be located close enough to the Carolinas
for winds Tuesday night to die away after sunset. While urban
areas should remain in the upper 30s for lows, this is the
situation when normally colder pocosins and peatland locations
can run 10 degrees colder if winds are calm. Those with
agricultural interests will want to monitor Tuesday night`s
forecasts closely.
The Canadian high should push offshore Wednesday with southwest
winds bringing warmer air into the area for Thursday, with
continued dry weather.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. Clear skies. Light W and NW winds today turn southerly
along the coast where a sea breeze had developed. High clouds
and showers begin to increase from the west at the end of the
period.
Extended Outlook...A couple cold fronts will affect the area
over the weekend, bringing the next chance for a couple periods
of flight restrictions, mainly Friday night through Saturday
night and again from Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through Friday...Southerly flow tonight will strengthen ahead of an
approaching cold front from the west and exiting high pressure to
our south and east. An increasing gradient will bring breezy
conditions tomorrow. South winds become southwesterly on Friday
afternoon, increasing to around 20 knots. Gusts remain below SCA
thresholds through Friday afternoon even as seas increase to 3-4
feet.
Friday night through Tuesday...Shower and thunderstorm potential
appears to be increasing for Friday night in advance of a cold
front expected to stall near Cape Fear on Saturday. Breezy
southwest winds Friday evening 15-20 knots should gradually
weaken and veer westerly late Friday night. Saturday`s winds
should remain significantly lighter with directions mainly
northeast near and north of Cape Fear, but more southerly south
of Cape Fear on the opposite side of the front. The front should
lift north again Saturday night with moderate southwest winds
expected during the day Sunday.
Another wave of showers and thunderstorms may slip across
Georgia and South Carolina Sunday night, but model trends have
been increasingly farther south with this feature. A cold front
should push offshore Monday morning, followed by an even
stronger front Monday night that stands a very good chance of
producing winds above 25 knots with a Small Craft Advisory a
good bet. Chilly offshore winds should continue through Tuesday
as Canadian high pressure builds southeastward toward the
Carolinas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...Air Quality Alert until 10 AM EDT Friday for SCZ017-023-024-
032.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21