Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 150531 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1231 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure to our north will bring near seasonable temperatures and dry conditions through the week. A dry cold front will pass early Thursday with a brief cool down to follow. A stronger cold front is expected to cross the coast this weekend with best chance of rain Saturday night into early Sunday. Very cool and dry weather will follow into early next week with another chance for freezing temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 945 PM Tuesday...Surface high pressure will ridge southward across the Carolinas through tonight. H5 shortwave will continue to exit the coast this evening. Moisture has been rather limited with this feature to begin with as the high clouds shift offshore leaving only pockets of low-level moisture in NE flow. No major changes were made to the current forecast as additional drying take root through the column. Dry weather will continue on Wednesday as high pressure begins to weaken across the Carolinas. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Quiet and seasonable weather for the short term as relatively flat flow persists across the eastern CONUS. Embedded within this regime, a shortwave will dig across New England on Thursday pushing a cold front across the Carolinas and offshore Thursday night. This front is not expected to produce thanks to mid- level westerly flow keeping the column dry and PWATs less than 1/2 inch, and other than some stratocu Wednesday night into Thursday, much of the period will be cloudless as well. Canadian high pressure builds in behind this front late Thursday, but the cold air is quite shallow and lags behind the actual front. This suggests highs Thursday will be near seasonable norms in the mid to upper 60s beneath full sunshine, with mins both nights a degree or two either side of 40 as the colder air only floods into the region very late Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure will be nearly overhead on Friday before shifting off shore by Fri night into Saturday. After a cool start to the day, temps will warm to around 60 most places on Friday with plenty of sunshine. By Saturday, a return flow will develop with some moisture return ahead of an approaching cold front. Should squeeze out a mainly dry day on Sat with increasing clouds as winds above the surface will be predominantly westerly downslope flow. Temps should reach around 70 or so. The latest model runs have pushed back the front a bit with best chc of pcp Sat night into early Sun. GFS shows pcp water down near a quarter of an inch on Fri, increasing up near 1.4 inches Sat eve just ahead of cold front. The deeper, drier and cooler air will lag slightly behind as high amplitude upper trough makes its way through by late Sun. At this time a very deep NW flow will advect plenty of cold and dry air into the Carolinas with clearing skies through the day on Sunday. The GFS shows 850 temps up to 11c ahead of the front and plummeting down to -7c Sun night. The EC is a trending cooler but remains the warmer of the guidance. Overall expect a chilly air mass to settle over the area early next week with arctic air producing possible freezing temps both early Mon and early Tues morning. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Elongated surface high will slowly shift east this morning into the afternoon, weakening as it slides east. Light north to northeast winds today will back to northwest in the early to mid evening hours as reinforcing high to the northwest builds southeast. Other than a few patches of cirrus during the evening hours skies will remain clear through the period with VFR conditions prevailing. Extended Outlook...VFR with a chance of showers with possible MVFR/SHRA Saturday into Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 945 PM Tuesday...A NE pressure gradient will keep the flow in 15-20 knot range overnight, then the gradient will gradually weaken during Wednesday as the surface ridge loses its grip. Will continue with Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline through tonight as the seas across the waters will likely be in the 4-5 ft range, and 3 ft near shore (less near shore Brunswick waters where the fetch is very limited). SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Weak and dry cold front will cross the waters on Thursday, with the most noticeable difference being a wind shift from NW pre-FROPA, to NE behind the front. Wind speeds will generally be 10-15 kts, but are likely to increase from the NE late Thursday night as cold advection over relatively warmer waters allows for better mixing. Seas of 2-3 ft Wednesday night and Thursday will build to 3-4 ft behind the front, with an amplifying NE wind wave topping a residual 1-2 ft easterly swell. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A brief spike in northerly winds will push seas up to 3 to 4 ft early Friday as high pressure builds in. As high pressure shifts overhead heading into Fri night, both winds and seas will drop of, with seas down less than 3 ft. By Saturday, an increasing SW return flow sets up as high shifts farther off shore and cold front approaches. This enhanced gradient flow may reach up near SCA thresholds but the highest seas will be kept farther off shore as winds veer to a more westerly direction as front nears the waters by late Sat into Sat night. Expect as FROPA early Sunday with a dip in winds and seas before deeper cooler air lags behind a bit. By late Sunday, a decent surge from the NW should kick seas up once again as we tap into some arctic air as high amplitude trough shifts east. For now, it looks like greatest seas through the period will come Sat night with another run at SCA conditions Sun night as chilly air mass advects over the local waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III

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