Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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184 FXUS62 KILM 070939 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 439 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak high will yield fairly seasonable weather today and tomorrow before a powerful cold front arrives late Thursday. A very cold weekend is then in store for the area with a gradual warmup starting Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Weak, and dry, high pressure will build into the area today and persist thru tonight. The sfc pg will relax this morning and especially by this aftn thru tonight as the low off the VA Capes progresses ene further away from the FA. Looking at NNW to NNE winds diminishing to less than 5 mph this aftn and likely becoming nearly calm after sunset thru tonight. an overcast low stratus clouds this morning should scour out later this morning by midday due to drier air aloft mixing down to the sfc. This will leave thin to opaque upper level cirrus traversing the area this aftn and tonight. Temperatures this period will run at to slightly higher than the 30 year normals. Overall, not bad of a day compared to the previous 2. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Wednesday...Longwave upper pattern this period exhibits a rather small amplitude trof affecting the entire conterminous U.S. with the strong westerlies having been pushed southward to Mexico and the southern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern in itself would result in temps this period running at or slightly below the 30 year normals. However, for Thu, sfc cfp to occur in the late aftn. Very limited moisture accompanying this front itself along with no tapping of any source expected. As a result, have only indicated low chance POPs ie. Isolated or widely scattered at best. And even this may be too high. Models indicate the flow aloft ends up with enough amplitude to tap some of the Arctic air in Canada and bring it southward into the U.S. this period. After the 1st CFP late Thu, a secondary CFP occurs Thu night. Modified Arctic air will follow the 2nd CFP and advect across the FA during late Thu night thru Friday night. This round of Arctic air is associated with a 1035-1040 mb High that broke off from the main Arctic High of 1055+ mb, over west central Canada. The broken off High will ridge into the FA from the south central U.S. during Friday, with it`s center just NW of the ILM CWA by daybreak Sat. Dry and cold conditions expected. Wind chill readings Fri night will drop into the upper teens inland to near 20 at the coast. Other than a brief warm-up ahead of the CFPs on Thu, temps there-after will average 10 to 15 degrees below the climo norms Fri into Sat. This definitely is the 1st bonafide cold air outbreak to commence the Meteorological Winter which started Dec 1st.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM Wednesday...A very cold airmass remains in control on Saturday though as the center of the high builds overhead winds will diminish. Warm advection will begin atop this airmass Saturday night but surface temperatures will still fall below 30 for all but SC beaches. It is then on Sunday when we will appreciate the warming at the surface as high pressure moves off the coast and the chill abates. Moisture will be on the rise in the low levels but zonal flow in the mid levels should preclude much moistening above. This would imply that the next cold front will be hard-pressed to produce any rainfall but some very low POPs seem warranted Sunday night into Monday. This zonal flow will also mean little meaningful cold air with the front. Late period temperatures look seasonable if not a few degrees above. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06Z...Guidance has backed off considerably on showing lowered flight categories overnight due to visibility. Since the wind will remain elevated enough for weak mixing this seems plausible. There is little to rout out this low level moisture in the form of IFR ceilings however. This will have to wait until deeper mixing ensues after sunup. VFR from thereafter. Extended Outlook...Fog possible Wednesday night. VFR conditions expected to prevail late week through this weekend. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...SCA and SCEC conditions early this morning, with conditions improving quickly during this period. Improving marine conditions expected today. The gusty NNW to NNE winds early this morning will diminish from south to north as the modest low off the VA Capes pushes ENE further away from the local waters. This will result in the sfc pg relaxing and winds diminishing to around 10 kt this aftn and possibly less than 10 kt tonight. Not much of a pressure pattern tonight which will result in a variable wind direction, however will indicate a dominate direction in lieu of going VRBL. Significant seas will also be subsiding this period. With short period wind driven waves dominating the seas spectrum, expect the seas to subside quicker. Seas will diminish to 3 ft or less by this evening, and to 1 to 2 ft during tonight. SHORT TERM /Thursday THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Wednesday...Subtle marine conditions Thursday will give way to 2 CFPs, the 1st late Thu aftn and the more potent one during Thu night. Potent, meaning modified Arctic air will advect across the area later Thu night thru Friday night. A tightened sfc pg and cold surge will combine to produce gusty NW to NNW winds at SCA thresholds. Models may be underdone with the winds across the area waters due to mild SSTs near the coast. Will have plenty of mixing across the area waters and especially across the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and any warm eddies that may have broken off. The center of the modifying Arctic High will lie just NW of the area waters by daybreak Sat. This will result in winds diminishing-some later Fri night. Significant seas will be at their lull of this period during Thu...with a 6 to 7 second period SE pseudo swell temporarily dominating. Wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods will become the dominant player in the significant seas spectrum after the CFPs, Thu night and continue thru Friday night. With a slightly hier offshore windspeed forecast than what the models indicate, the seas will end up slightly hier, by 1 to 2 feet, than what Wavewatch3 indicates. NWPS runs, ie. Swan Model, has taken into account our local wind fcst when this model was executed. With an offshore wind trajectory, a relatively large range of seas will occur, with 1 to 3 ft near shore and 3 to 6 ft across the outer waters. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As OF 3 AM Wednesday...Chilly high building in from the north Saturday to bring an abating N wind that will veer slightly. Additional veer to E early Sunday as a weak boundary develops along the coast. Later Sunday the wedge will break down, bringing a rapid turn to the S or SW. Wind speeds will be on the rise as a cold front approaches from the NW but advisory not expected at this time, but cautionary headlines are possible.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.