Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220745 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A seasonably cool weekend is on tap followed by a brief warm-up Monday. A reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night will set the stage for dry weather and seasonable temperatures this upcoming week. A low pressure system will approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Back to reality, weather-wise that is. Autumn is here! Longwave pattern change aloft is still ongoing but basically will result in an upper level trof affecting the Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. and upper ridging across the western 2/3rds. This pattern resembles what the ILM CWA should see during this time of the year. Initially will be under cyclonic flow sfc and aloft to start today but by this aftn, strong high pressure accompanied by modified Canadian air will become the major player affecting the ILM CWA this period. Various model rh time height displays for locations across the FA suggest enough moisture in the lower levels for possible few/sct diurnally driven and flat topped cu...mainly northern portions of the FA. In addition could see thin high altocu or cirrus during the day via various model soundings. The Fa will se widespread 60s for todays highs...A far cry from the late summer time temps the FA has been basking in. The CAA under gusty NW winds will both subside by late this aftn. Tonight, clear skies expected with the the center of the sfc high parking along the Gulf Coast states. It`s center will be just far enough away to keep winds active across the FA and thus prevent a night of radiational cooling that could have posed problems well inland given sfc dewpoints progged in the upper 30s. Tonights lows will be in the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday...The change in the longwave pattern having been completed will result in Autumn weather across the FA this period with temps near normal. The center of sfc high over the gulf coast states will continue to affect the fa on Sunday but the difference from Saturday is that the FA will be under neutral air advection under w to nw winds with few gusts in the teens. For Monday...WAA ahead of the next cold front will push max temps well into the 70s, slightly above the norm, under sw to w winds. The cold front, a dry one, will drop across the area late Monday afternoon thru the early evening. CAA under N to NE winds to ensue as Canadian high pressure drops toward the area from the upper Midwest. Mainly clear skies thruout this period except possible sct/bkn low or mid level clouds associated with the cold front. As for overall temps, stayed close to a blend of the avbl model Mos Guidance. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Saturday...In wake of a dry frontal passage Monday night, continentally dry air will be refreshed into the region Tuesday, transitioning to a nearly locked high pressure wedge configuration of longevity Wednesday into next weekend. The implications regarding sensible weather begins with notably cooler minimum temperatures inland versus the coast in NE flow, with spits of -RA favored near the coast beginning Thursday and extending into next Saturday. Maximum temperatures will run near normal this period, but minimums may settle above average over the eastern zones as a maritime influence appears likely. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z...SKC/VFR. Cold air advection in wake of a cold front moving farther offshore this morning, will impart moderately gusty and dry northwest winds, easing late in the day. Ideal flight conditions tonight amid a crisp and clear atmosphere with W-WNW wind 5 knots or less and plenty stars. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR Saturday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Saturday...SCA conditions to prevail thru this aftn for the ILM SC waters, and to early this evening for the ILM NC Waters. The tightened sfc pg combined with excellent CAA will result in NW winds at 15 to 25 kt with a few higher gusts this morning. The gradient will slacken tonight and the CAA will come to an end. Looking at winds subsiding into the 10 to 20 kt range. Significant seas will be dominated by locally produced, low period wind driven waves. An underlying but slowly decaying, ese to se, 3 to 4 foot, swell at 8 to 10 second periods will continue to affect the local waters this period. Normally, it would be pancake conditions looking from the beach. But, this beaten down swell still should make it to the beaches with a nice feathered look to it. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday...The sfc pressure pattern and modest gradient will yield w to nw winds at 10 to 15 kt with few higher gusts, thru Sunday Night. This a result of the high`s center being positioned over the Gulf Coast States. By Monday, looking at the approach of a cold front with winds temporarily going sw to w. The sfc pg will remain somewhat modest yielding 10 to occasionally 15 kt speeds. The cfp slated to be a dry one, will occur from late Monday afternoon thru early evening. The sfc pressure pattern and tightened gradient after the cfp will yield n to ne winds at 15 to 20 kt with hier gusts. Significant seas will be on a subsiding trend Sunday through Monday...from 3 to 5 ft dropping to 2 to 3 ft. In addition, the underlying ESE ground swell will have decayed to around 1 foot. Look for the NE wind driven waves to gain prominence Monday night. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Saturday...Tuesday begins turbulent on the waters as a moderate to heavy chop is instigated by frisky NE winds in wake of a dry cold front. A small craft advisory or an exercise caution statement will be needed and likely already in effect by daybreak Tuesday. A stubborn high pressure wedge will maintain a relatively tight packing of the pressure gradient Wednesday and Thursday and this may be a prolonged series of caution headlines and not ideal boating conditions as fresh NE winds maintain moderate windspeeds. No TSTMS or restrictions to visibility expected this period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 AM Saturday...Current Coastal flood advisory remains in effect til 500 am. Looks like the next chance for the Lower Cape Fear River to spill out of it`s banks will occur between the hours of 130 pm and 530 pm. At this point, it could breach the Advisory flood thresholds of 5.5 ft MLLW as forecast and observed at the downtown Wilmington lower Cape Fear river gage. The following are high tides for the gage on the Lower Cape Fear River... High tide 3:23 AM on Sat. High tide 3:56 PM on Sat. High tide 4:22 AM on Sun. High tide 4:53 PM on Sun. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MJC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...dch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.