Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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715 FXUS62 KILM 201433 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1030 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbances aloft will bring isolated showers today through Friday. High pressure will build in from the north for the remainder of the week while Jose spins nearly stationary off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Dangerous hurricane Maria will bring increasing southeast swell and strengthening rip currents to the Carolinas beginning late week. Maria is expected to move north and offshore of the Carolinas early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1030 AM Wednesday...Latest 12Z WRF in agreement with current forecast in that POP trend will not follow the normal diurnal trend. Rain chances (though remaining slim overall) rise this evening after peak heating height falls and PVA impinge upon the region. May also add a degree or two to highs. As of 515 AM Wednesday... The westerly flow aloft will transition to a bit of troughing later today and extend into Thursday morning. At the surface a weak trough will move across this evening which may kick off a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Guidance is not overly agressive and some model suites show little to nothing. I have maintained the slight change pops. The best forcing appears to occur around 03 UTC this evening. Highs today will tack on a degree or two from yesterdays readings as the airmass continues to modify. Overnight lows Thursday morning will also add a degree or two with some areas remaining above 70 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Amorphously broad high pressure dominates eastern CONUS during the short term, with an upper trough extending SW from Jose off of the New England coast and distant Hurricane Maria emerging from the Carribbean. Model soundings show a moderately unstable column developing both afternoons with P/W amounts in the 1.5 inch range. The moisture will mainly be confined below 700 mb, but this will be enough for isolated to widely scattered convection to develop both afternoons and into the evenings. Ill-timed upper disturbances hinted at in the guidance, and this could extend convection into the overnight hours. Given limited moisture depth and unfavorable wind profiles do not expect strong or severe convection. Temperatures will remain around or above climo through the short term. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...At onset Friday Jose will be meandering off the New England/Mid-Atlantic coasts while Maria approaches the eastern Bahamas with weak high pressure in place across the Carolinas. Weak high pressure will remain across the Carolinas early next week as Maria moves northward off the Southeast U.S. coast. We will obviously need to keep a very close eye on Maria`s progression, however in the least we expect very hazardous surf conditions as large swells impact the coast. Held onto a small POP for primarily SC areas during Friday, then no POPs thereafter (ultimately dependent on Maria`s track early next week). Favored a blend of MEX/ECE highs/lows through the long term period. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 12Z...Inland terminals of FLO and LBT may see brief period of MVFR vsbys in fog this morning, otherwise good confidence IFR all sites through the daylight hours and into the evening. Moderate confidence that MVFR in patchy fog towards daybreak on Thursday will again affect the inland TAF sites. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the period are expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200Z timeframe each morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...A weak pressure field will continue to reside over the area and waters with a continuation of light wind fields. A light west to southwest flow of ten knots or less will continue through most of the day. Speeds may briefly increase this evening by a couple of knots as a surface trough moves across. Significant seas will continue to be 2-3 feet. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Although a broad area of high pressure over the coastal zones will keep winds light through the period, generally around 10 kts, expect that swell from very distant Hurricane Maria will bring seas up to 3 to 5 ft by Friday night. Until then, seas will stay in the 2 to 4 ft range. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Very hazardous maritime conditions expected during the long term period as large waves emanate outward from Maria. At this time Maria is likely expected to remain offshore as it moves northward from the Bahamas, but all marine interests should closely monitor the progression of this storm given forecast track uncertainty at this time. Winds on Friday will be around 10 knots from the northeast to east with similar conditions Saturday. Speeds will increase during Sunday out of the northeast as the peripheral circulation of Maria begins to come into the picture. Wavewatch III guidance indicates significant swells impacting the coastal waters, especially Sat into Sun. Very steep waves are possible, especially near inlet entrances during the falling tide. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EDT today for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...MBB/SHK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...REK

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