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767
FXUS62 KILM 271322
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
922 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will remain near to above normal through early next
week with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected as
high pressure prevails. An approaching cold front will bring
increasing rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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No significant changes were needed to the forecast with the
morning update. The 12z MHX and CHS soundings confirm the
difference in moisture implied by 6.95 micron water vapor
satellite imagery showing a band of moisture advecting
northwestward around the upper low centered over Georgia. This
modest increase in moisture also lends support to the idea of at
least isolated showers and thunderstorms developing this
afternoon. Lapse rates aloft remain poor, but at least any
growing cumulus won`t have to deal with as much dry air
entrainment as yesterday.

Heat indices should peak no higher than about 102 this afternoon
as dewpoints mix down into the 70-72 range inland from the
seabreeze/marine airmass.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridging aloft, now centered north-northeast of the local area
continues to weaken today as a broad 5h low moves over GA/MS.
Overall little air mass change from Thu and temperatures are once
again expected to be 3-5 degrees above normal. Environmental
parameters are also quite similar to Thu when no diurnal convection
was able to develop. Above normal temps and dewpoints in the lower
70s will create a healthy amount of SBCAPE, 2k-3k J/kg. However, the
mid-levels remain on the dry side and mid level-lapse rates barely
rise above 6 C/km. Only real forcing mechanism today will be the sea
breeze which may be able to kick off a few storms, but not expecting
a lot of coverage. Bulk of the CAMs and even the global models show
minimal convective coverage this afternoon and evening. After what
happened yesterday, a big nothing, plan to keep POP in the slight
chance realm. As stated, nothing happened on Thu, but some of that
could have been down to the environment being "worked over" in the
wake of the extreme convection on Wed. Thus feel keeping a mention
of storms in the forecast is warranted although the prospects don`t
look good.

Skies clear out tonight as diurnal clouds mix out with the loss of
heating. Temperatures remain above normal in spite of the clear
skies with boundary layer winds and moist low levels keeping lows
around 3 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge will be centered offshore while decaying upper low
sits over the western Carolinas. We will have thus lost most of the
convectin-suppressing effects of the high but will be too far east
to have any PVA-related lift from the dying low. So while forcing
will be lacking outside of mesoscale boundaries low level SW flow
will be bringing in moisture. Forecast PW values of 1.8-1.9" are
between the 75th and 90th percentiles. A fairly  normal
thunderstorm distribution warranting 30 POPs still looks good, with
a lesser value near the NC coast due to NNE storm motion (of 5 kt).
POPs will be confined temporally to peak heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much changes Sunday when compared to Saturday though the upper
low will be no more. In the end this means another day of 30 POPs,
mainly inland and during the afternoon. Monday too looks to bring
unchanging synoptic conditions for a similar forecast. Both days
will warm to the mid 90s each afternoon with HI values remaining
narrowly below advisory thresholds. The heat will start to taper
Tuesday and WEdnesday as rain chances rise ahead of an approaching
cold front. Thursday could grow even more unsettled as upper trough
leads to some weak height falls and PVA to add some mid level ascent
atop the low level lift provided by the front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the valid TAF period. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible mid-afternoon
through early evening at the inland terminals, but coverage will
be limited by the less than favorable environment. Have removed
mention of TSRA from FLO/LBT TAFs given the anticipated sparse
coverage later today. Any storms that do develop will come to an
end during the evening hours with skies clearing. Sea breeze
will lead to a slight increase in south to southeast winds at
the coastal terminals, midday through early afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR possible due to scattered
afternoon/evening thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...

Typical summer pattern with Bermuda High and Piedmont trough remains
in place, keeping southwest flow 10-15 kt across the waters.
Strongest winds will be nearshore in the afternoon, associated with
the sea breeze circulation. Seas 2-3 ft with a south to southwest
wind wave slightly more dominant than the southeast swell.

Saturday through Tuesday... Winds will be out of the southwest
through the period. They will tend to gradually add a category of
speed gradually as the piedmont trough tries to become better
defined early next week, and then a further increase at the period`s
end due to the approach of a cold front. SE swell energy won`t
change much due to little movement of the Bermuda High but wind
waves will obviously be on the rise. At this time it appears that
both wind and seas will remain below SCA thresholds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM