Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210901 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 400 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mild temperatures will prevail through Tuesday, before cooler air filters in, during the mid-week period. Scattered rain showers can be expected ahead of the front late Monday and Tuesday. As high pressure moves offshore late in the week, and an upper ridge expands from the Bahamas, weekend temperatures above normal will overspread the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 4 AM Sunday...A mid level low/trough will finally meander by through the period leaving in its wake subtle ridging. At the surface a weak pattern will prevail under high pressure. Other than a few high clouds skirting by to the south this morning skies should remain mostly clear through the period. Highs today will be in the middle 60s across the board and Monday morning`s lows will continue to climb from recent mornings leveling off in the lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Chief headline this period, `Mild and Occasionally Wet`, as warm air advection gears up this period ahead of a cold front passage, off the coast by Tuesday night. The wet period should encompass Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, with a rain lull likely, overnight into Tuesday, and exceptionally mild with lows Tuesday closer to the average high for late January. Latest QPF consensus shows around a tenth of an inch with this system, up to 2/10ths in some coastal spots around Cape Fear, as a coastal warm front initially, on Monday, brings the first of 2 rain chances there. Assessment of the CAPE fields warrants a slight chance of a rumble early Tuesday ahead of the front, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60 deg. Coastal fog may plague the inshore waters and far eastern zones late Monday as milder and moist air passes over the chilled sea waters. A few spots may hit 70 Tuesday, as teaming of partial sunshine and downslope W flow pair up, this fair game all the way to the coast Tuesday afternoon, prior to frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Cold front in the area as the period begins is quickly lifted east-northeast as 5h trough, associated with Great Lakes 5h low, moves northeast. The bulk of the dynamics and moisture with this system end up passing to the north, limiting local precip chances the first half of Tue. This setup also helps keep the bulk of the cold air north of the area. Secondary cold front arrives Wednesday night, but even this feature lacks strong cold advection. Mid-level pattern in the wake of the exiting trough is relatively flat into the end of the week, helping quickly move surface high west to east. Late next week 5h ridge starts to build over the Southeast as 5h trough digs over the western CONUS. This will lead to an increase in deep moisture return very late in the period, but at this point confidence is very low and not quite ready to carry any mentionable pop. Temperatures above climo early in the period will dip near climo midweek following the passage of the secondary cold front. Temperatures bounce back above climo Fri and Sat as surface high off the coast and deep southerly flow begins a period of warm advection. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR conditions expected through the period. Weak high pressure will settle over the area for most of the next day or so. A few high clouds may skirt the area especially southern areas but should not have any appreciable impact on aviation concerns. Extended Outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR/SHRA late Mon/early Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Generally light wind fields will be in place through the period as a weak pressure gradient resides at the surface. The best defined winds will be a westerly flow of around ten knots for a few more hours this morning. Beyond this, a weak southerly flow will develop. Seas will be 1-3 feet and in reality 1- 2 feet. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Increasingly hostile marine period, mainly by Monday night, as winds gust to 25 kt and seas build to 5-6 feet offshore, ahead of a cold front. Rain may reduce visibility late Monday and Tuesday morning, and there will be a slight chance of a TSTM Tuesday morning. gusty SW-W winds will prevail Tuesday and an SCA for wind gusts may be needed much of the day. By Tuesday evening, winds will become NW, and seas will subside, especially inshore. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Although cold advection is lacking, the gradient will keep speeds in the 15 to 20 kt range Wed morning before starting to relax and allowing speeds to drop. Reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives late Wed night, as the surface high west of the area shifts east. Northerly flow increases as cool surge arrives and winds become northeast. Seas continue a steady diminishing trend Wed, dropping to 2 ft on Wed before starting to build late Wed night as the cold surge arrives. Cold surge will push seas to a solid 3 ft with potential for isolated 4 ft as the period ends. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...Colby LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SHK

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