Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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621 FXUS62 KILM 251825 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 225 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A vigorous upper level disturbance will bring showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which may contain small hail and strong gusty winds. High pressure will build across the area tonight and Friday and persist into the weekend, bringing dry weather and increasing heat. A cold front will reach into the Carolinas early next week, finally moving off shore by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Thursday...A vigorous shortwave rounding the base of the trough and its associated cold pool will bring a round of showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon. Temps at 500 mb will be around minus 18 deg c this afternoon. At the same time, temps at the surface will be in the 70s. Lapse rates will continue to steepen. In addition, there is considerable dry air in the mid levels. This environment will be conducive for at least scattered showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon and we are already seeing convection blossoming upstream across South Carolina. Any of the convection will have the potential to produce strong gusty winds and small hail and we have added this verbiage to the gridded forecast. It is not impossible for an isolated severe thunderstorm to develop as well. The gradient winds will be gusty from the SW at 20 to 30 mph. Loss of heating late day and passage of the strong mid level feature will end the risk for convection. Skies will clear and winds will diminish this eve. These conditions along with dry air will allow for the coolest night in a couple weeks, upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Weak high pressure centered over Florida will extend north across the forecast area Friday, then will be suppressed to the south as a slow moving cold front drifts south towards the region. A dry column and lack of forcing will make for a rain-free start to the Memorial Day weekend, at least up until Saturday night. For overnight Saturday have introduced slight chance for showers and thunderstorms with the front lingering to our north. Confidence not high that we will see precip in that time-frame though, as guidance not in good accord with frontal placement. Temperatures will gradually warm through the period, with highs in the mid 80s for Friday and right around 90 for Friday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Expect high pressure to hold with plenty of dry air and subsidence in the mid levels to maintain a cap on convection through early Sunday. The ECMWF is more bullish with a digging northern stream shortwave pushing a cold front south and east toward the Carolinas on Sunday and suppressing ridge farther south. This could lead to greater potential for clouds and showers and slightly less warm temps, but for now will lean more toward the GFS and keep a more optimistic forecast for sunnier and warmer weather on Sunday. If GFS forecast holds, mid level heights will continue to rise through the weekend as ridge builds up from the south and temps will rise up around 90 again on Sunday.Overall confidence is lower through early next week as a slow moving cold front reaches into the Carolinas and finally moves off the coast on Tuesday or possibly not until Wed. Therefore should see increasing chc of showers Sun aftn through Mon. Temps will continue to rise well into the 80s Mon through Wed. A moist summertime like air mass will keep overnight lows && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 18Z Thursday...A cold pool aloft is bringing the last of the showers and a few thunderstorms across the terminals. This activity will be moving offshore and weakening during the late afternoon. Brief MVFR is possible with the showers through 20-21z. Thereafter skies will be clearing and VFR is expected through the remainder of the valid TAF period. The winds will continue to gust up to 25 to 30 kt through sunset and then winds will diminish to 10 to 12 kt or so. Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Thursday...Strong Small Craft Advisory conditions ongoing across the waters. Deep mixing will allow for sustained SW winds of 20 to 25 kt with frequent gusts to 30 kt today. Winds will veer to a more westerly direction tonight as the trough swings offshore. Seas of 5 to 8 ft today will begin to get knocked down by offshore trajectories tonight and most of the waters should be below Small Craft Advisory thresholds before Fri morning. Isolated to scattered showers and some thunderstorms may contain small hail along with gusty winds. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Expect generally W to SW winds through the short term as high pressure builds in from the west. Seas of 3 to 5 ft Friday morning for our NC waters will subside as the gradient relaxes, possibly ramping up again Saturday night as a weak front inches down from the north. Seas for our SC waters will be a bit more moderate and should not exceed the 2 to 4 ft range through the short term. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure to the south will maintain a SW return flow 10 to 15 mph through much of the period. Seas between 2 and 4 ft will rise up to 3 to 5 ft on Sunday with increasing winds up to 15 to 20 kts as a cold front makes its way toward the Carolinas. Tightened gradient flow between slow moving cold front to the west and high pressure to the south and east may push winds up to 15 to 20 kts through early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK/RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD

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