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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 170224
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1023 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO MON MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVE...ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...MOST PREVALENT INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5 KFT.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MON
MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD THROUGH 7 AM.

INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL JETTING...UP TO 25 KT...WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO AS
HIGH AS 15 MPH AND INCREASING COLUMNAR MOISTURE...WILL KEEP TEMPS
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGHER AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. A FEW PLACES COULD FIND THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE MID 60S
FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE BEACHES SHOULD BE WARMEST...MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY WET WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.  COMBINING THAT WITH
LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY AND AN APPROACHING
FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TUESDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATEST GFS HAS GONE BACK TO PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH QUICKER...BUT NOT ON BOARD. THIS COULD BE DOWN TO
FEEDBACK CAUSING OVER AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS THE
GFS SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD THAT THE 00Z ECMWF LACKS. LATE IN THE WEEK RIDGING OVER
CENTRAL US SLOWLY BUILDS WEST...HELPING PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND ITS
MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND BUT A LOT OF THIS APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY FEEDBACK FROM
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WILL FAVOR
DRYER FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CU IS
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD COVER AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. KFLO/KLBT COULD SEE
MID-LEVEL VFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES > 2.0 INCHES AFTER 15Z
INLAND/18Z COASTAL INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
PCPN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTN HOURS AS THE
SFC DESTABILIZES AND THE SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THRU THE PERIOD...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL JETTING...UP TO 25 KT...WILL ALLOW FOR A
RATHER WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...
EXPECT SUSTAINED SW WINDS UP TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF WIND AND SWELL.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE WILL HAVE MOST OF THE ENERGY...THE SWELL WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. A SE SWELL WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT S TO SW FLOW INVOF 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH 20 KT IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT MONDAY MORNING COULD BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
TUESDAY...WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE AT 20 NM...ESPECIALLY NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMES
VARIABLE WED NIGHT BEFORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES HOLD THU AND
FRI. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH FRONT STALLED CLOSE TO THE WATERS.
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 FT THU AND 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR