Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KILM 180135
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
935 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
High pressure over the area will shift offshore tonight into Tuesday
bringing well above normal temperatures through mid week. An
approaching cold front will move through on Fri bringing much
cooler weather for the weekend. High pressure will build back
into the region from the west over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 830 PM Monday...Mid-level ridge axis will extend NE across
the area from the central Gulf of Mexico coastal states. This will
limit any clouds from reaching the ILM CWA given this orientation.
Will forecast a mostly clear night. The elongated center of sfc
high will extend from central SC across the ILM CWA to well east
of Cape Fear. This positioning will result in a decent sfc based
inversion along with winds decoupling. With enough low-level
moisture and longer nights, the end result will be patchy to areas
of fog developing after midnight and continuing thru 8 am Tuesday.
Tonights lows require little if any tweaking with upper 50s inland
to lower 60s at the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Surface and mid level ridging will keep the
region dry through the period with temperatures above to well
above climo. Elongated surface high pressure centered near Bermuda
will maintain warm and moist return flow across the Carolinas
through the period. Aloft the 5h ridge will remain over the
southeast with the associated subsidence keeping the mid levels
dry and contributing to temperatures above climo. The shallow
nature of the low level moisture combined with the strength of mid
level subsidence under the ridge will keep skies mostly clear
through the period with no chance of rain. Highs will be in the
low to mid 80s with lows ranging from upper 50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Latest model data keeps a more progressive
open mid to upper trough pushing a cold front east through the
Carolinas by Fri aftn and guiding a possible tropical low off to
the E-NE. The low is forecast to remain well east, 400 miles or
more, and with a lack of any moisture return and upper level
support, trending to a drier frontal passage on Fri and drier
forecast in general for the weekend. Should see some clouds
with fropa on Fri and again on Saturday as shortwave energy moves
through at the base of the mid to upper trough. By late Saturday,
deep NW flow will usher in an extreme taste of Fall like weather.
A warm start to the long term with well above normal temperatures
will take a turn for the weekend with cold fall temperatures
running at least 5 degrees below normal. Temps will not even make
it to 70 on Sat and should be below 50 in many places overnight
Fri and Sat. High pressure will settle closer overhead into early
next week maintaining dry weather, but allowing temps to recover
to normal readings by Monday.
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...Anticipate areas of MVFR/IFR fog to develop late
overnight into the early morning hours on Tuesday. Otherwise
VFR will remain in place across the area tonight with clear skies
and light west-southwest winds. Do anticipate areas of MVFR/IFR to
develop late overnight into the early morning hours as ideal
radiational cooling conditions prevail. On Tuesday, conditions will
improve to VFR after daybreak and continue through the rest of the
forecast period with light south winds.
Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible due to areas
of fog in the early morning hours Wednesday and Thursday. MVFR
ceilings are possible in showers Friday. Otherwise expect VFR.
-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 815 PM Monday...Elongated center of High pressure extends
along the 34 degree North Latitude from South Carolina across the
ILM CWA and coastal waters, to a couple hundred miles east of Cape
Fear. The end result is, with no sfc pg, wind speeds will be lucky
to reach 5 to 10 kt. With the center of High overhead, could
basically forecast a variable wind direction. But as I said
before, I will try to identify and forecast the most dominant
Overnight thru Tuesday, significant seas will become governed by
a 13 to 15 second period northeasterly swell from Hurricane
Nicole now located in the North Atlantic, specifically near
latitude 42.7 North, longitude 42.6 West, and moving toward the
northeast near 25 mph. This backswell from Nicole will be
reflected/refracted by the time it reaches the ILM Waters ie.
Having to move across the shallow shoals off of Cape Hatteras,
Cape Lookout and for the ILM Southern waters, Cape Fear. Looking
at basically 2 to 4 foot, with the 4 footers at or just beyond
the 20 nm line. The offshore waters further east of the Carolinas
mainland will see those 3 to 5 footers.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Surface high centered near Bermuda will
extend southwest toward the waters through the period. This will
maintain south to southwest flow Tue and Wed. Weak gradient will
keep speeds under 10 kt into Wed night. Development of tropical or
sub-tropical low northeast of the Bahamas may have some influence
on the wind field late in the period, but confidence is low. At
most this feature would result in northeast flow over the waters
with potential for a bump in speeds to 10 to 15 kt late Wed night.
Seas through the period will run close to 2 ft with isolated 3 ft
possible at times.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Weak high pressure will be squeezed out by
cold front approaching from the west and tropical system well off
shore. Although some longer period easterly swells will continue
to mix in, seas will remain 2 to 3 ft through Thurs. Winds will
increase out of the NW through Fri as cold front moves through from
the west. The off shore component to the flow will keep highest
seas off shore with max up to 4 to 5 ft Fri into Sat.
-- End Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM Monday...Coastal Flood Warning continues for the
Lower Cape Fear River near Wilmington. Water levels along the
river will rise to around 7 ft MLLW around 1130 PM with this
evening`s high tide. Elevated water is expected on Water and Dock
streets in downtown Wilmington as well as a significant amount of
water on US 421 near the Battleship. While tonight`s high tide
will not be as high as the tide this morning impacts will again
occur along both sides of the Lower Cape Fear River.
A coastal flood advisory will likely be needed Tuesday morning for
both coastal New Hanover and Brunswick counties. Wrightsville Beach
is forecast to reach 6.3 ft MLLW around 930 Tuesday morning.
For the tide gauge located on the Lower Cape Fear River at downtown
Minor coastal flood thresholds......5.5 ft MLLW.
Moderate coastal flood thresholds...6.7 ft MLLW.
Major coastal flood thresholds......8.0 ft MLLW.
Here are the next 3 consecutive high tides for the Lower Cape Fear
High tide 1126 PM on Mon...Projected gage reading 7.0 ft MLLW.
High tide 1155 AM on Tue...Projected gage reading 7.5 ft MLLW.
High tide 1221 AM on Wed...Projected gage reading 7.0 ft MLLW.
High tide 1253 PM on Wed...Projected gage reading 7.4 ft MLLW.
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.