Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180135 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 935 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area will shift offshore tonight into Tuesday bringing well above normal temperatures through mid week. An approaching cold front will move through on Fri bringing much cooler weather for the weekend. High pressure will build back into the region from the west over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 830 PM Monday...Mid-level ridge axis will extend NE across the area from the central Gulf of Mexico coastal states. This will limit any clouds from reaching the ILM CWA given this orientation. Will forecast a mostly clear night. The elongated center of sfc high will extend from central SC across the ILM CWA to well east of Cape Fear. This positioning will result in a decent sfc based inversion along with winds decoupling. With enough low-level moisture and longer nights, the end result will be patchy to areas of fog developing after midnight and continuing thru 8 am Tuesday. Tonights lows require little if any tweaking with upper 50s inland to lower 60s at the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Surface and mid level ridging will keep the region dry through the period with temperatures above to well above climo. Elongated surface high pressure centered near Bermuda will maintain warm and moist return flow across the Carolinas through the period. Aloft the 5h ridge will remain over the southeast with the associated subsidence keeping the mid levels dry and contributing to temperatures above climo. The shallow nature of the low level moisture combined with the strength of mid level subsidence under the ridge will keep skies mostly clear through the period with no chance of rain. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with lows ranging from upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Latest model data keeps a more progressive open mid to upper trough pushing a cold front east through the Carolinas by Fri aftn and guiding a possible tropical low off to the E-NE. The low is forecast to remain well east, 400 miles or more, and with a lack of any moisture return and upper level support, trending to a drier frontal passage on Fri and drier forecast in general for the weekend. Should see some clouds with fropa on Fri and again on Saturday as shortwave energy moves through at the base of the mid to upper trough. By late Saturday, deep NW flow will usher in an extreme taste of Fall like weather. A warm start to the long term with well above normal temperatures will take a turn for the weekend with cold fall temperatures running at least 5 degrees below normal. Temps will not even make it to 70 on Sat and should be below 50 in many places overnight Fri and Sat. High pressure will settle closer overhead into early next week maintaining dry weather, but allowing temps to recover to normal readings by Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 00Z...Anticipate areas of MVFR/IFR fog to develop late overnight into the early morning hours on Tuesday. Otherwise expect VFR. VFR will remain in place across the area tonight with clear skies and light west-southwest winds. Do anticipate areas of MVFR/IFR to develop late overnight into the early morning hours as ideal radiational cooling conditions prevail. On Tuesday, conditions will improve to VFR after daybreak and continue through the rest of the forecast period with light south winds. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible due to areas of fog in the early morning hours Wednesday and Thursday. MVFR ceilings are possible in showers Friday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 815 PM Monday...Elongated center of High pressure extends along the 34 degree North Latitude from South Carolina across the ILM CWA and coastal waters, to a couple hundred miles east of Cape Fear. The end result is, with no sfc pg, wind speeds will be lucky to reach 5 to 10 kt. With the center of High overhead, could basically forecast a variable wind direction. But as I said before, I will try to identify and forecast the most dominant wind direction. Overnight thru Tuesday, significant seas will become governed by a 13 to 15 second period northeasterly swell from Hurricane Nicole now located in the North Atlantic, specifically near latitude 42.7 North, longitude 42.6 West, and moving toward the northeast near 25 mph. This backswell from Nicole will be reflected/refracted by the time it reaches the ILM Waters ie. Having to move across the shallow shoals off of Cape Hatteras, Cape Lookout and for the ILM Southern waters, Cape Fear. Looking at basically 2 to 4 foot, with the 4 footers at or just beyond the 20 nm line. The offshore waters further east of the Carolinas mainland will see those 3 to 5 footers. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Surface high centered near Bermuda will extend southwest toward the waters through the period. This will maintain south to southwest flow Tue and Wed. Weak gradient will keep speeds under 10 kt into Wed night. Development of tropical or sub-tropical low northeast of the Bahamas may have some influence on the wind field late in the period, but confidence is low. At most this feature would result in northeast flow over the waters with potential for a bump in speeds to 10 to 15 kt late Wed night. Seas through the period will run close to 2 ft with isolated 3 ft possible at times. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Weak high pressure will be squeezed out by cold front approaching from the west and tropical system well off shore. Although some longer period easterly swells will continue to mix in, seas will remain 2 to 3 ft through Thurs. Winds will increase out of the NW through Fri as cold front moves through from the west. The off shore component to the flow will keep highest seas off shore with max up to 4 to 5 ft Fri into Sat.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 300 PM Monday...Coastal Flood Warning continues for the Lower Cape Fear River near Wilmington. Water levels along the river will rise to around 7 ft MLLW around 1130 PM with this evening`s high tide. Elevated water is expected on Water and Dock streets in downtown Wilmington as well as a significant amount of water on US 421 near the Battleship. While tonight`s high tide will not be as high as the tide this morning impacts will again occur along both sides of the Lower Cape Fear River. A coastal flood advisory will likely be needed Tuesday morning for both coastal New Hanover and Brunswick counties. Wrightsville Beach is forecast to reach 6.3 ft MLLW around 930 Tuesday morning. For the tide gauge located on the Lower Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington, Minor coastal flood thresholds......5.5 ft MLLW. Moderate coastal flood thresholds...6.7 ft MLLW. Major coastal flood thresholds......8.0 ft MLLW. Here are the next 3 consecutive high tides for the Lower Cape Fear River... High tide 1126 PM on Mon...Projected gage reading 7.0 ft MLLW. High tide 1155 AM on Tue...Projected gage reading 7.5 ft MLLW. High tide 1221 AM on Wed...Projected gage reading 7.0 ft MLLW. High tide 1253 PM on Wed...Projected gage reading 7.4 ft MLLW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...dch NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...iii is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.