Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271801 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 201 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO MID- WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THE EVENTUAL CFP. MODELS IN GENERAL...CONTINUE WITH A MUCH FASTER CFP THAN WHAT REALITY IS CURRENTLY DICTATING AT THE MOMENT. IN ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOWN BY 88DS IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DUE TO BREAKS IN THE OVC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. THESE HIER TEMPS HAVE AIDED THE SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ALBEIT SMALL...BUT NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH TO PLACE ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN. AS MENTIONED...MAX TEMP FCST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...CLEARING SKIES...BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SANS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE SREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME WIND EXPECTED AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MODEL FIELDS SHOW ONE FINAL DECENT VORT ROTATING ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STILL ALL SIGNS POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RAISE THE FREEZE WATCH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE ALL AREAS BEING IN THE WATCH. NOT A LOT OF WARMING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER. WINDS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER MAKING IT FEEL NICER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS AS A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ALOFT. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN UNEVENTFUL FASHION TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF FLEETING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH THEN WASHES OUT WITH A RETURN FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...A NICE BROKEN LINE AND/OR CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT...THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER FOR THE FLO AND COASTAL TERMINALS THRU MID-AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART...THE THUNDER IS EAST OF THE LBT TERMINAL. VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DROP TO IFR. POST FRONTAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST 10-15 KT...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY OVER 20 KTS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR...HOWEVER RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE START AND END TIME OF THE LOW CEILINGS SINCE MOS GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT FROM ONE ANOTHER. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A SLOW IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR EMERGING MAINLY DURING THE PRE- DAWN SAT HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL COMBINE TO KEEP WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK WITH NO LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC WATERS...AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS. BRIEF LULL IN THE SW-WSW WIND FIELD PRIOR TO THE CFP THAT IS SLATED FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS. AS A RESULT... SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE LEVELED OFF TO THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE PRIOR TO THE CFP. ANY CHANGE IN THE WIND FIELD WILL BE QUICKLY REFLECTED IN THE SIG. SEAS OUTPUT. THIS DUE TO ONLY A SMALL PSEUDO GROUND SWELL COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THUS RESULTING IN MAINLY SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES AS THE PRIMARY MAKE-UP OF THE SIG. SEAS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RUN 4.5 TO 5.5 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY AND OFFSHORE WITH A RANGE OF 3-5 FEET. HEIGHTS BACK OFF CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY TO 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATE MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AND IS BRIEFLY STRONG WITH 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. UNDER A QUICK MOVING ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT THE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING LIGHTER WIND FIELDS. SEAS DROP BACK TUESDAY AS WELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH/DL

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