Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291751 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 151 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 151 PM FRIDAY...THE FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE 925 MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND THE LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONFIRMS THE BEST MOISTURE IS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE 14 UTC HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO BURGAW LINE SO HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT POP IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES SNEAK FARTHER SOUTH BY THE END OF THE DAY. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WARRANTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SIGNAL FOR MOSTLY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND HAVE MAINTAINED THESE MINIMAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. PERHAPS A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM NOW LIGHTING UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MAKES IT EAST. TEMPERATURE FORECAST/GUIDANCE WARRANTS ONLY TOKEN CHANGES AS UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER 90S INLAND CONTINUE. 70S FOR MORNING LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING AS BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING FROM A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...NOTABLE FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE POPS ESSENTIALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE FEATURES GET AN ASSIST FROM THE UPPER LEVELS. THE TIMING HOWEVER IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. WITH THE PERIOD MODULATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES BOTH MAX AND MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BY JUST ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE WINDS BECOME S TO SSW WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS BECOME S TO SE. SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 10 KT. WITH THE S TO SE WINDS...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SUCH THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...TAFS HAVE MVFR FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 500 FEET BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG AFTER 06Z. BURN OFF IN THE AM WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG BUT VFR IS EXPECTED AFT 14Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS SAT AFTERNOON. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 151 PM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY SEEING THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION ON THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS AND RADAR. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING A 2 FOOT DOMINANT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL AS SE SWELL MIXED IN. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET UNTIL MORNING. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL TRANSITION. SWAN SEAS SHOW A CONSISTENT 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LATE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS...NOW VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT WILL BE 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RAN

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