Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 230707
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
307 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Chilled air this morning will warm up close to or around 70
degrees this afternoon under sunny skies. Clear nights and Sunny
skies will be on tap through the mid to late week period. A brief
warm-up on Monday will be followed by a dry cold frontal passage
late Monday afternoon and evening. Following the cfp will be a
reinforcement of the cool air across the FA complements of
Canadian high pressure ridging southward from it`s center located
north of the Great Lakes. Another warmup will occur towards the
end of the work week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Upper longwave pattern in place now.
This means Autumn season is fully upon the ILM CWA. At the sfc,
high pressure will remain parked across the Gulf Coast States this
period. The sfc ridge axis will extend from it`s center toward the
northeast and across portions of the ILM CWA today. For tonight,
it`s axis is shunted southward. This positioning today, will
result in nw-w winds at 5 to 10 mph, it`s shunted position and a
slightly tightened sfc pg tonight will keep sw to w winds active.
Another issue will be the low level jet just off the surface.
Models indicate 25 to 30 kt west winds, with some of that mixing
down to the sfc. Do not expect any decoupling of the winds
tonight. This may also keep min temps up even hier than what the
consensus of avbl mos guidance is indicating. In fact, will have
temps drop to near the fcst lows just after midnight, and then
will indicate steady or slowly rising temps there-after. WAA will
affect the entire ILM CWA with 850mb temps increasing along with
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...WAA ahead of the approaching cold front will
be ongoing at the start of this period. Could see occasional thin
cirrus clouds traversing the ILM CWA thruout this period via model
rh time height displays across the FA. With WAA, consensus amongst
the models gives mid to upper 70s for highs on Mon. The cold
front, a dry one, with very little clouds associated with it by
the time it reaches and drops south across the ILM CWA. Time line
for the cfp will run from late Mon afternoon thru early evening.
This cfp will not be as dramatic as it`s predecessor a couple days
ago, but will re-enforce the cool air across the FA for the
remainder of this period. This due to sfc high centered north of
the Great Lakes, ridging southward across the ILM CWA and
continuing across Georgia. Thus, an influx of Canadian air will
occur for Tue thru Wed.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...Quintessential autumn weather Wednesday
will transition to a brief but weak warm sector regime late
Thursday and Friday as an approaching short-wave and attendant
surface low begin to erode locally an entrenched high pressure
wedge. This should generate a bit of cloud cover late week and
perhaps -RA/-SHRA respectively prior to frontal passage sometime
Friday. No appreciable QPF is expected to be laid down since
return flow and low level wind trajectories remain unfavorable for
notable moisture advection. This will however bring slight cooling
into next weekend but not as cool as we are seeing this weekend in
terms of minimum readings. As a result we expect the river levels
to continue a decline through the extended period.
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 06Z...Nearly ideal flight conditions with a crystal clear
sky dome and unlimited visibility at present. W-NW winds 5 knots
or less early this morning becoming W-WSW 7 knots AFT 14Z, and
remaining clear with full VFR through the TAF cycle. AFT 00Z LGT
and VRBL to calm winds this evening through 6Z.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Surface high will ridge across the waters
from it`s center over the Gulf coast states. This will result in
a loosened sfc pg with a diminishing nw to w wind. For tonight, a
low level westerly jet at 25 to 30 kt just off the deck, will
likely mix down to the ocean sfc. Have indicated w to sw winds
increasing slowly thru tonight. Significant seas will mainly be
driven by locally produced wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second
period. There will be an underlying easterly 1 foot ground swell
at 9 second periods moving across the local waters. Overall, seas
2 to 5 ft today and holding in the 2 to 4 ft range tonight. Due to
the westerly winds, a limited fetch will exist.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...For this period, a tightened sfc pg to occur
Monday ahead of an approaching cold front which will yield sw to w
winds at 10 to 20 kt. A dry cold frontal passage will drop across
and south of the local waters by early this evening. After fropa,
winds will become ne at 10 to 20 mph with a few hier gusts due to
the combined efforts of a tightened gradient and CAA. Sfc ridging
from the highs center north of the Great Lakes will extend across
the Carolinas thru the remainder of this period along with the ne
winds with a partial diminishing phase to occur tue night.
Significant seas will primarily ruled by locally produced wind
driven waves at 3 to 6 second periods. Significant seas to range
between 2 to 5 ft, with a few 6 footers possible early tue off
Cape Fear. SCEC conditions may be met late Mon night into Tue.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...Moderately bumpy seas should be anticipated
Wednesday since PMSL contours will remain somewhat packed closely
together over the 0-20 NM waters. An exercise caution statement
cannot be ruled out entirely even though various wave solutions
cap seas at around 4 feet accompanied by fresh NE breezes. Vast
improvement Thursday afternoon and Friday as a flat pressure
pattern sprawls over the Carolina waters. NO TSTMS or constraints
to visibilities are expected this period. A few light showers may
touch Cape Fear Friday as a front transfers off the coast.