Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 270832 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 432 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE CAROLINAS BY THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SFC COOL FRONT HAS NOW SNAKED JUST OFF THE ILM CWA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE ILM COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT...AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE ILM CWA COAST. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY DRIER BIAS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST TODAY...AND AS INSOLATION COMMENCES...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER LAND AREAS OF THE ILM CWA. WILL INDICATE THE HIER POPS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FURTHER INLAND ONE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ILM CWA...IE. ISOLATED OR JUST WIDELY SCATTERED ONCE YOU REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...WILL DROP OFF POPS TO JUST ISOLATED FOR THE MID EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST ...AND THIS STILL MAY BE OVERDONE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS MAX/MIN TEMP FORECAST...WITH JUST A DEGREE OR 2 LOWER ADJUSTMENT TO BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH MAY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST ON FRI LEAVING A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE BROADER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE A MORE EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SATURDAY. THE DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ON FRI SHOULD KEEP PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR 1.5 INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND DIMINISHING INLAND. THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD. BY SATURDAY...THE GREATER ON SHORE PUSH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. WINDS MAY STILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE MAINTAINING A DRIER FLOW OVER NC INITIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT BY THE END OF SATURDAY...PCP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE UP NEAR 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LONG TERM FORECAST TOTALLY DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF ERIKA...WHICH...AT THIS POINT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. NHC FORECAST KEEPS ERIKA ON A ROUTE UP THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND REACHING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY MON EVE. THE TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TAKING THIS TRACK AS WELL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACK ERIKA FARTHER WEST AND KEEP IT WEAKER...WHILE THE PREVIOUS RUNS PRODUCED A HURRICANE OVER CAPE FEAR BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS TIME...WILL REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WILL KEEP WITH MORE OF AN ON SHORE AND THAN NORTHERLY FLOW AS IF ERIKA WAS TRACKING OFF THE COAST TO OUR EAST. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ERIKA QUITE CLOSELY. LOOKS LIKE GREATEST EFFECTS FROM ERIKA MAY BE EXTREME RUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SWELLS AND STRONG ON SHORE PUSH AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO EXPECT AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT AS EARLY AS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION AND GREATEST POPS FOR TUES INTO WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MINS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP FOG ALONG THE COAST AT A MINIMUM...HOWEVER WITH ALL THAT WATER ON THE GROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL HORRY...SOME IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY GRADUAL CLEARING OR THE COOL FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SC COAST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG INLAND TERMINALS ALONG WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS EXPECTED INTO DAYTIME THU MORNING. SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH NORTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING. COULD SEE ESE-SSE FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE SFC FRONTS PARTIAL OSCILLATION ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT OSCILLATING NEAR THE COAST...INSTEAD OF FURTHER INLAND...WILL LEAN TOWARD VCNTY CONVECTION INLAND FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...AND TRY TO IDENTIFY A PREDOMINATE TIME FOR CONVECTION AT THE COAST. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNDER THE GONE FOR THURSDAYS THREAT FOR CONVECTION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 06Z...DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP FOG ALONG THE COAST AT A MINIMUM...HOWEVER WITH ALL THAT WATER ON THE GROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL HORRY...SOME IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY GRADUAL CLEARING OR THE COOL FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SC COAST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG INLAND TERMINALS ALONG WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS EXPECTED INTO DAYTIME THU MORNING. SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH NORTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING. COULD SEE ESE-SSE FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE SFC FRONTS PARTIAL OSCILLATION ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT OSCILLATING NEAR THE COAST...INSTEAD OF FURTHER INLAND...WILL LEAN TOWARD VCNTY CONVECTION INLAND FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...AND TRY TO IDENTIFY A PREDOMINATE TIME FOR CONVECTION AT THE COAST. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNDER THE GONE FOR THURSDAYS THREAT FOR CONVECTION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF WATERS ON FRI WITH MORE OF A NE WIND FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC WITH CENTER TO THE NORTH OF AREA WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE E THROUGH SUNDAY AND E-SE BY SUN NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SPIKE EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. KEEPING SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITH A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MIXING IN WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LONG TERM FORECAST BECOMES MORE DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF ERIKA. OVERALL EXPECT ON SHORE PUSH WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 4 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY TUES MORNING...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO RAMP UP AS WINDS AND SWELLS FROM ERIKA BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE GREATEST AFFECT FROM ERIKA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS WILL COME TUES INTO WED....BUT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES MAY MAKE IT A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH/DL MARINE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.