Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 020008 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 808 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE EVE AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CLOUD TOPS TO OUR WEST HAVE BEEN VERY SLOWLY COOLING. THE AIRMASS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT IS MORE STABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE CONVECTION WAS MOVING EAST AT NEAR 35 KT. ALTHOUGH A SLOW EROSION OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE OR WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH MODEST JETTING ON THE ORDER OF 25 KT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS ELEVATED. WE EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL LONG WAVE H/5 TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH P/W VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR THESE REASONS WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL BE IFFY SO DO NOT THINK WE CAN YET PIN DOWN WHEN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN. OTHER TRIGGERS TO CONVECTION WILL ALSO EXIST...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FURTHER COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FLATTEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW LEAVING A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ACT TO DEEPEN LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DECENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE SHEER AND SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALSO WILL DRIVE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND DEBRIS CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST MON INTO TUE AND SHOULD PUSH ANY LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST. THEREFORE MAY SEE LESS COVERAGE FOR TUE BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER FRONT OR MAY ENHANCE LEESIDE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN COME WED. OVERALL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...CLOSE TO 90 DURING THE DAY AND 70 TO 75 AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW OF KFLO/KLBT SHOULD WEAKEN TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SE TO THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH WEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN HEADLINED THROUGH 6 AM FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW LEVEL JETTING ON THE ORDER OF 25 KT AHEAD OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE SW OVERNIGHT. THESE WIND SPEEDS AND THEIR PERSISTENCE WILL RESULT IN 4 TO 5 FT SEAS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PUMP WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND 4 TO 7 FT ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT WE WILL POST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING THIS BOUNDARY TO REACH INTO OUR WATERS...BUT SHOULD ACT TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT FLOW INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH SAT AFTN BUT PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO INCREASE WINDS AGAIN THROUGH SAT AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS UP NEAR 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS WITH SOME 6 FTERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT...TO DECREASE DOWN TO 3 TO 5 FT AND KEEP ON A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY AND FLOW MAY BECOME MORE OFF SHORE WHICH WILL DROP SEAS EVEN FURTHER. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.