Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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113 FXUS62 KILM 161201 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 701 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy, with record warmth in many locations today, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will drop south this evening, then linger nearby Saturday, bringing cool and damp conditions. Another front will bring a chance of rain Saturday night and Sunday morning, but temperatures will warm into the 60s Sunday afternoon. Upper ridging from the Bahamas early next week, will help bring temperatures well above normal for February. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 354 AM Friday...Plenty of warm and moist advection will continue through this afternoon in increasing SW flow. Temps and dewpoint temps were around 60 in many locations already early this morning and will continue to rise in return flow around high pressure. The winds will increase as gradient tightens as cold front approaches from the northwest this afternoon. Expect a mix of some low clouds and high clouds to limit sunshine at times, especially through this morning, but any periods of sunshine will boost the temps up quickly. The potential for sea fog to brush the Cape Fear coast. The increasingly warm and moist SW flow rushing over the cooler shelf waters will lead to areas of fog across the waters which may hit the coast at times but overall will remain just off the coast with a decent westerly component to the flow. This strong westerly downslope component to the flow will also aid in warming. The 850 temps will be up to 16 to 17c through this aftn and expect temps to rise to around 80 most places inland. Cool shelf waters will keep beaches cooler. As cold front drops into the area from the N-NW this evening, pcp water increase just along it, up near 1.5 inches, but any decent upper level support remains to the north. Looks like pcp will be limited to forcing right along the front and should reach into the forecast area this evening. The front ends up being oriented more west to east as it moves through as ridge to the south keep flow aloft in a more W-SW direction. This SW flow running over the cool N-NE flow behind the front will lead to a period of low clouds and possible drizzle or light rain behind the front overnight into the morning hours as wedge of high pressure reaches down from the north behind it. Temps will fall to around 50 or just below over northern tier counties while places to the south will be closer to 55 by morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 354 AM Friday...`Cooler With Occasional Light Rain` aptly headlines the weekend, although by Sunday afternoon, look for temperatures to rise above normal, as the progressive pattern sends high pressure offshore late Sunday. A cold front will sink just south of the area Saturday, only to lift north slightly ahead of a secondary pressure trough/weak cold front, Saturday night. The boundary will push south again Sunday, as another high pressure area migrates into the region from the west. The two wet periods should be early Saturday in low-level over- running, inducing patches of -ra/dz, but very little measured in buckets at the end of the day, and again Saturday night into Sunday, as the 2nd cold front moves through. Total weekend precipitation, up to 1/10th along the I-95 corridor, to a few hundredths along the coast. While plentiful clouds are expected through the course of the weekend, look for partial sunshine Sunday afternoon, as ridging aloft from the Bahamas edges in. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...The front to the south will waver and lift back into early Monday morning as a warm front. This will be the beginning of a very warm period for the upcoming week, but may be accompanied by a few showers into Monday morning. Soundings suggest increasing saturation, but forcing is weak, so the front may manifest only as increasing cloud cover rather than showers. Will carry inherited SCHC/low CHC early Monday. Strong WAA develops thereafter, persisting at least into Wednesday as a summer like synoptic setup develops. Bermuda high pressure offshore and amplified mid-level ridging across the southeast will drive temps to well above normal values, near 80 Tue/Wed, with scattered WAA showers possible during the aftns. An abrupt changes occurs Thursday as a shortwave and backdoor front suppress the ridge and bring a wedge of high pressure into the Carolinas. This will return temps back to seasonable levels with better chances for rain. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR through today with southwest to west-southwest winds gusting to 25-30 kt at times. There is a chance this morning of MVFR cigs but confidence is low. Winds abate around 23Z. A cold front will move through this evening with low VFR/tempo MVFR cigs. West winds will veer to the northwest, eventually becoming northeast overnight. An isolated shower is possible with fropa and through the overnight hours, but confidence is low. Post frontal cigs will drop to MVFR from northeast to southwest beginning around 06Z at KILM. Extended Outlook...SHRA/MVFR/tempo IFR Sat-Sun morning. Becoming VFR Sun. Tempo MVFR/IFR/SHRA cig/vsby Sun night/Mon. VFR Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 354 AM Friday...Increasing SW flow today ahead of an approaching cold front will drive seas up to 4 to 6 ft in northern waters while waters to the south will run up to 3 to 5 ft with winds up to 15 to 20 kts. A SCA remains in effect until 7p this evening at which time the winds will veer to a more westerly direction as cold front reaches the waters. Once the front crosses the waters winds will become N-NE after midnight. As the winds become more westerly ahead of the front, the off shore flow will help to lower the seas a bit with all seas dropping around a ft. This will allow any headlines to drop but may see a brief period of SCEC to borderline SCA in the northern waters toward daybreak Sat in northerly surge behind front. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 354 AM Friday...Improving marine conditions through Saturday after a rough early start and 5 foot seas offshore. Diminishing NE winds Saturday will become light into evening, but a cold front late Saturday night, will bring a NE surge into Sunday, but no advisories or caution headlines expected at this time. Saturday night and Sunday seas will be down to 3 feet or less, but early Saturday, still recovering, 3-5 ft at daybreak Saturday. Drizzle and mist may reduce visibility along the inshore waters Saturday to less than 2 NM. Easing NE and E winds Sunday afternoon and night, will bring favorable marine trends late in the weekend, greeting Monday. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Wind direction veering to the E/NE by Monday morning. The surface high will shift offshore and take up position as Bermuda type ridge Monday and Tuesday, driving increasing return flow and SW winds around 10 kts through the middle of next week. Seas will deamplify into early next week before a SE swell and SW wind wave amplifies late, pushing seas back to 3-4 ft late Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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