Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211651 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1250 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... BRINGING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET ACROSS OUR AREA. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 70S INLAND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...FINALLY...A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AND FOR MOST...MORE PLEASURABLE WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL YIELD A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS TODAY. CLOUDS NEAR AND AT THE COAST THIS MORNING...AND WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT EROSION BY/DURING THIS AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL HAVE A DEFINITE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE RIGHT ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR LATE APRIL...MID 70S. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME UPSTREAM HIGHER CLOUDS WILL REACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE START WE ARE GETTING THIS MORNING... UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SIGNIFICANTLY RELAX AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON SUN...BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY FROM THE N...UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD LIGHT BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...UPPER TROUGHINESS DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SOME LEADING SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL...ALL WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD THUS BREAK OUT FROM NW TO SE. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MEAGER...500 J/KG OR LESS..AND GREATLY DIMINISHED CLOSER TO THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT FROPA DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING. THE FRONT IS THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DRY AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL ONLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK TUESDAYS WARM AFTERNOON BACK TO CLIMO FOR WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST. IT WILL BE FAIRLY GRADUAL HOWEVER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOT ALLOWED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SOME DEEP AND BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE LAKES. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY FORM LATE IN THE WEEK BUT IT SEEMS TOO FEEBLE TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THIS MAY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...EXCELLENT AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY BRISK NORTH WIND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FINALLY EXITS THE REGION. AN INVERSION WILL SET UP FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE...A LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...MVFR WORST CASE. TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE LIGHT FOG MIXES OUT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR AMZ254 BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N AT UP TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHOULD FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD DURING THE DAY. HIGHLY AGITATED SEAS...FROM DAYS OF STRONG NE FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SOUTH...AND MID EVE...N WATERS. TONIGHT...N WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS BY DAYBREAK TUE WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INLAND TROUGH AND COASTAL RIDGE INITIALLY TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SWRLY PREFRONTAL FLOW. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT JUST 10-15KT BUT LATE IN THE DAY SPEED WILL INCREASE A BIT...EVENTUALLY INTO THE NEXT CATEGORY (15-20) BY NIGHTTIME. ADDING ABOUT 1 FT TO SEAS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY ADVISORY OR SCEC HOWEVER IN THE COAST-PARALLEL FLOW. PRETTY QUICK VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THAT TRIES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ENDS UP REMAINING DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH SO WINDS WILL DECREASE AS WEDNESDAY WEARS ON. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WIND SWITCHES FROM ONSHORE TO SWRLY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 AS THE RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A VERY EXPANSIVE LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...TRA/BJR SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43

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