Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181951 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 351 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Jose will continue to lift off to the north leaving dry and warm weather across the area through much of the week. An increased rip current risk will linger along the beaches due to continued swells. Hurricane Maria is expected to track to the north offshore of the Carolinas during the middle of next week but uncertainty remains. Maria is a powerful hurricane, bringing increasingly strong rip currents and dangerous marine conditions to the area late this week through at least early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Jose dominates the visual impression in satellite presentations, whose very outer bands were grinding the Outer Banks of NC with occasional 30 KT gusts. Jose was almost due east of HSE out about 260 NM, moving north. All this and yet, a pleasant and quiet evening across the forecast area expected under mainly clear skies once diurnal cumulus melts into the night sky. A coupled waves or bands of mid-lvl clouds may fling overhead as Jose pinwheels gradually northward. The surfzone along area beaches remains dangerous due to the power of the ever-present rip currents, as longer period energy races to shore here. The atmosphere appears too dry aloft to support measurable rainfall, but low-level moisture and clearing, along with easing winds may allow developing pre-dawn stratus and/or fog to move or expand into the area early Tuesday. N winds will become more NNW-NW overnight and diminish in speed. Minimums will dip into the middle 60s, under mainly clear skies for much of the night, allowing a good radiational-cooling set-up. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Quiet conditions will continue for the most part through the period. The mid level pattern will feature a weak westerly flow that morphs into a decent trough late Wednesday into early Thursday. The GFS and ECMWF are painting a few showers in the area late Wednesday into early Thursday while some of the other guidance is void of this activity. I did add a slight chance of showers to address. No significant changes to temperature guidance or forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1200 PM Monday...Persistent high pressure will be reinforced from the north Fri and Sat. Did include a small risk for a shower or thunderstorm Thu, before high pressure strengthens across the area. Did include a small risk for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze Sat and Sun. Monday`s forecast will hinge to a large degree on the track and strength of powerful Hurricane Maria and we will be watching the tropics especially closely. Tropical cyclone Jose or its remnants will be virtually stalled SE of New England late in the week and may actually begin to drift S Fri and through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to be a powerful hurricane as she approaches during the weekend. Her forerunner swell energy will begin to be felt on the Carolina beaches late week which will increase the breaking wave heights and rip current risk. A high risk for rip currents is likely this weekend and early next week. Much too early to have any confidence in a track forecast for Maria as she approaches the southeast coast. Some of the models continue to show interaction between Maria and Jose early next week and Jose may play a part in the path Maria ultimately takes as she gains latitude and approaches the U.S. east coast. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s Thu and Fri and lower to mid 80s thereafter. Lows will be mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1730Z...Primarily VFR, except isolated MVFR ceilings early this afternoon from KMYR to KCRE to KILM as stubborn but slowly eroding stratus sails overhead and to points southward. VFR is expected remainder of the afternoon and evening until around 9z, then 2-4 SM BR and areas of BKN009. Aft 13z VFR conditions expected, except isolated MVFR ceilings as the stratus lifts and gradually transitions to cumulus. Moderate N winds will become NNW-NW into evening, diminishing to 6 kt or less aft 00z tngt. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the period are expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200Z timeframe each morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...`Hazardous Seas` remains intact due to large swell waves from Jose, and the swell has transitioned now to E. Increasing glass-like undulations of wave energy will trend as as winds tending to NNW-NW tail off in speeds, leaving a clean surfzone and light offshore flow into morning. Mariners should be alert navigating near sandbars and shallow water areas as the long period energy creates larger than normal breakers. East facing inlets may continue to experience turbulence during the outgoing tides. Swell heights will decrease several feet by this evening and the SCA may be allowed to end for the SC waters sometime tonight and early Tuesday for NC. No TSTMS expected over the 0-20 NM waters. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...A weak pressure pattern will continue through the period across the coastal waters. Wind speeds will be ten knots or less through the period. Wind direction will be primarily from the southwest but a weak surface trough passing through early Thursday will push winds to more of a westerly direction at that time. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1200 PM Monday...The risk for Small Craft Advisory seas is increasing this weekend. Weak high pressure will prevail through the period but will become better established from the north late week. Long period swell, the forerunners of powerful Hurricane Maria, will begin to reach our waters during this time. The swell energy looks to become significant Fri and Sat. The swell direction will be from the SE. Guidance is showing periods of around 15 seconds at Frying Pan Shoals with wave heights increasing from 4 to 5 ft Fri to 6 to 7 ft Sat. The swell will further increase Sun and Mon which will result in higher wave heights. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The lower Cape Fear will see high astro tides again with tonight`s high tide cycle this evening, and a `coastal flood advisory` was needed for water levels almost a half foot above the advisory threshold for downtown Wilmington. Minor flooding will occur between 8pm-11pm tonight downtown, and more coastal flood advisories are likely according to tidal predictions through at least the first day of Fall, and September 22nd at 2002Z this year Autumnal Equinox occurs.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...MJC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC/TRA

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