Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290225 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 925 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES NOW RIGHT AROUND FREEZING THIS EVENING AND WELL ON THEIR WAY AT CURRENT RATE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01 INCHES ARE QUITE LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS POP BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST AT THE COAST. QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP INTO THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW. COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. ON THURSDAY...VFR CONTINUES AS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI... OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. IN KEEPING WITH THE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT SEAS WILL DECAY A FOOT INTO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. 15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WILL BE THE HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FRIDAY WILL BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK

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