Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251738 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 138 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAINTAINING WARM CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 138 PM MONDAY...STELLAR MEMORIAL DAY UNFOLDING IF YOU ARE A FAN OF WARM SUNSHINE...ONSHORE BREEZES AND SPARKLING ALBEIT PACKED BEACHES. INTERIOR SURFACE HEATING WILL DRIVE A MODERATE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...SPREADING SIGHT COOLING INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR AND RESULTING IN A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL FROM INLAND TO THE COASTAL ZONES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER MAINLY OVER WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY WHERE IT APPEARS THE ONLY PROSPECTS EXISTS BETWEEN 19Z-21Z/3PM-5PM. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SUN- COOKED CUMULUS ON TAP. THE COASTAL ZONES BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUNNY MUCH OF THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MID- WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY A TEXTBOOK BERMUDA-HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINES WITH AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY THANKS TO A SUBSIDENT INVERSION AND VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY WHERE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.9 INCHES...BUT EVEN THERE ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED...WITH SOME LOW-END CHC DARLINGTON/MARLBORO/ROBESON A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL WILL CONTINUE. COUNTIES. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED. TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR 80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUATION OF THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPINS OFFSHORE AND RIDGES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY PEAK THURSDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE INLAND HALF OF THE CWA. FRI-SUN...RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FURTHER AND DRIVES 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 16C. SO...WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE WKND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD 90S LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND...ALTHOUGH BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE SUBSIDENT .RIDGE IN PLACE PREVENTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONTINUE A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL WILL CONTINUE. WITH ADVECTION OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...IT MAY BEGIN TO FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE AROUND THE AREA NEXT WKND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...AN EARLY SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS IN CHECK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH A THIN BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 138 PM MONDAY...SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY...3 TO 4 FT. DOMINANT WAVE INTERVALS OF 6 SECONDS EXPECTED. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE CREATES RATHER CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SE OR SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM 10-15 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM A 7-8 SEC SE GROUND SWELL INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK GRADIENT...AND SE WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT. THESE RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4 FT...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND WEAK WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...HDL/MJC

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