Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 190739 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 339 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather over the next couple of days will give way to a strong cold frontal passage Friday. This will knock temperatures down into the 40s for lows this weekend, with highs in the 60s. A warming trend early next week will be followed by cooler air as another cold front drops down from the north by Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...GFS/NAM in nice agreement through the near term with large H5 ridge extending across the VA/NC border swwd into TX with NVA. This ridge with associated surface High will keep the region sunny and very warm today with light winds and readings climbing well into the 80s. I have gone above most guidance the last few days and see no reason not to as well today so most of the region will climb well into the mid 80s under sunny skies. No risk of any pops as well. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Models still in good agreement through Thursday night with H5 ridge still holding in place. further upstream models showing digging central US trof with good upper level dynamics making its way to the east during this period. Surface high still dominating our neck of the woods with a mix of sun and clouds and again much above temperatures with reading once again in the 80s albeit about 2-3 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning with light winds and increasing low level moisture patchy to areas of fog will be more widespread with many areas dropping below 2 miles in vsby. Cannot rule out dropping below dense fog advisory after 08z so this will bear watching for later shifts. Changes occur across the forecast areas on Friday as upstream h5 trof swings to the east. NAM is a bit deeper than the GFS by 12z Friday with a more negative tilt and a deeper surface low as it swings into the TN valley. GFS is slower at this point and not as deep with the trof but models start to lift the trof to the NE pulling the best dynamics and the surface low into the ohio valley. Models now showing a drier frontal passage across our region with best pops across the w-nw portion of the CWA. Will keep pops around 20 pops near the coast with GFS/NAM in good agreement on this although 12z european was around 30 pop. further west across the cwa the models are in disagreement over pops so I will split the difference between the two. Timing of fropa across the region on Friday will have an effect on temperatures. Will have higher temps across the ern third of the CWA with a later afternoon fropa.Temperatures will be more seasonable on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s ern portion of cwa and lower to mid 70s across wrn and cntrl portion of cwa. Temps turn much colder Friday night. During this time developing low near Bahamas moves toward the NW before turning to the N than NE passing several hundred miles to our east and will pose no threat at this time to us other than some wave action possible this weekend. See statements from NHC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Cold and dry high pressure will build into the Carolinas over the weekend. Deep mid to upper trough will swing through on Saturday with a decent amount of shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough before moving off shore by Sat evening. This may squeeze out some stratocu across the area, but overall, expect plenty of sunshine with very cool Fall weather. A deep N-NW flow will continue to usher in cold and dry air through much of the weekend. Pcp water values down near a quarter of an inch will rise slightly Sun night into Mon as winds back to the W-SW as high pressure gets suppressed south with another dry cold front dropping down form the north Mon night. Temps a good 5 to 10 degrees below normal Sat into Sun will rebound Mon back toward normal but will get knocked back down a bit with a reinforcing shot of cool and dry air behind front by Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the north. Overall expect overnight lows below 50 most days and afternoon highs below 70 except Mon with plenty of October sunshine. Temps along the coast will be slightly warmer due to warmer ocean temps. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06Z...High pressure extending back across the area from center out over the Atlantic. Basically looking at a persistence forecast similar to previous couple of night with clear skies and near calm SW winds. Winds will be calm during the pre-dawn hrs allowing fog development. Daytime Wed will basically be a repeat of Tue daytime with the sea breeze developing during the midday and aggressively pushing inland. Will only indicate sct cu with no vertical development expected given the isothermal layer between 850mb and 700mb via latest progged soundings. Extended Outlook...Thu morning, possible MVFR/IFR from fog and low ceilings. Fri, possible brief MVFR in -SHRA and clouds, especially late in the day along the coast. Otherwise, remaining outlook is for vfr. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday High pressure across the western Atlantic extends a ridge axis westward and across the Carolinas. Light winds of 10kts or less will persist throughout much of the day with seas running about 2 feet south of Cape Fear and 2-3 feet north of Cape Fear. Spectral wave data from the Frying Pan Shoals shows a 14-15 second easterly swell dominates the sea state this afternoon. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Cold and dry high pressure will build into the area waters over the weekend. The cold air rushing over the warmer waters will keep marine layer well mixed with gusty NW winds up to 15 to 20 kts. Seas should remain near or above SCA thresholds with 4 to 6 ft seas over most waters. Winds and seas will begin to back to the W-SW and lighten as high pressure gets suppressed to the south late Sunday into Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Still dealing with exceptional amounts of water coming down the Black, Cape Fear, and Northeast Cape Fear Rivers, causing periodic coastal flooding in downtown Wilmington. Water levels are predicted as high as 7.46 feet MLLW with the afternoon high tide. Tidal anomalies should slowly decrease here over the next several days, but not before at least one more warning-level flood event this afternoon. The Coastal Flood Warning has been extended through 3 PM today. Note: Moderate coastal flooding (a warning-level event) is defined as 6.7 feet MLLW or higher at the Wilmington gauge. Tide forecast/anomaly analysis: Downtown Wilmington High Tides Tide + Anom = Total Water Level Wednesday 12:53 PM 5.31 + 1.6 = 6.91 feet MLLW Thursday 1:21 AM 4.66 + 1.4 = 6.06 feet MLLW Thursday 1:55 pm 5.14 + 1.3 = 6.44 feet MLLW && .EQUIPMENT... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Power remains out at the Lumberton, NC airport. The emergency generator which had maintained power to the LBT ASOS since Hurricane Matthew gave out. Observations and climate data from Lumberton will remain missing until power can be restored, and LBT TAFs will remain in a `AMD NOT SKED` mode until full METARS flow. Also due to Hurricane Matthew, the Georgetown, SC NOAA Weather Radio broadcast remains off the air due to phone line issues. Our technicians are working on getting a temporary phone line up and running for this site as soon as possible. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MAC SHORT TERM...MAC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RGZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.