Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270715 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO MID- WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT BACKING INLAND FROM THE COAST IS PRODUCING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...WHILE JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD BUT NET LINE MOTION SHOULD PICK UP A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SHORTLY...STEERED BY THE 700-500 MB FLOW WHICH IS STRENGTHENING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE NSSL WRF SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MERGING INTO A HEFTY LINE AS IT REACHES THE WILMINGTON METRO AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVELY STEEP AND GIVEN THE TRAINING NATURE OF THE STORMS WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLEARS THE COAST BY 10 AM OR SO...DOWNWARD MOTION THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD BE SO MUCH SUNSHINE I AM FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ABOVE THE WARMEST MODEL OR MOS I COULD FIND...LOWER 80S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE BEACHES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH SOUTH WINDS ADVECTING IN CHILLY AIR OFF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY WELL INLAND BUT THIS MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR ANTICIPATED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LOW GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS. MY FORECAST LOWS ARE WELL ABOVE MOS AND CLOSE TO A RAW MODEL BLEND WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHOW UP WEST OF I-95 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND I PENCILED IN A NARROW ZONE OF COOLER FORECAST LOWS HERE EXPECTING COLD ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...CLEARING SKIES...BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOSITURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SANS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE SREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME WIND EXPECTED AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MODEL FIELDS SHOW ONE FINAL DECENT VORT ROTATING ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STILL ALL SIGNS POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RAISE THE FREEZE WATCH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE ALL AREAS BEING IN THE WATCH. NOT A LOT OF WARMING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER. WINDS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER MAKING IT FEEL NICER.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS AS A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ALOFT. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN UNEVENTFUL FASHION TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF FLEETING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH THEN WASHES OUT WITH A RETURN FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...BEST CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL AIRPORT AS A WAVE OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM COASTAL GA/SC. THIS COULD "SEED" THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS...PARTICULARLY AT CRE/MYR. FARTHER INLAND RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER...HOWEVER LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP HERE AS WELL DUE TO WEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE CLOUDS ALOFT ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS 14-15Z...17-18Z FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INITIALLY WITH IFR MOST OF THE DAY. IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED..
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT REACH THE WATER UNTIL SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS MEANS SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST IS ONGOING NOW AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS LOW IS HELPING CREATE A LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT COULD ALLOW THESE SHOWERS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS AWAY FROM SHORE WILL GO INTO A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...A SEABREEZE NEARSHORE SHOULD HOLD WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. WITH ONSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS...LARGE SEAS ARE BEING DIRECTED FROM WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. RECENT REPORTS INCLUDE 5 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY...AND 4 FEET AT THE "HARBOR" BUOY SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT. THESE SEAS COULD BUILD ANOTHER FOOT THIS MORNING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON LULL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NC WATERS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 FOOT SEAS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY AND OFFSHORE WITH A RANGE OF 3-5 FEET. HEIGHTS BACK OFF CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY TO 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATE MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AND IS BRIEFLY STRONG WITH 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. UNDER A QUICK MOVING ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT THE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING LIGHTER WIND FIELDS. SEAS DROP BACK TUESDAY AS WELL.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...TRA/MRR

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