Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040518 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 118 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: LAND CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE TIME BEING AND THE FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO LATE NIGHT INITIATION OVER THE WATERS AS NIGHT-TIME LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY INCREASES. THIS COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OT TSTM INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND THE CAPE FEAR REGION...OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH PATCHES OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT DEVELOPING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER. WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W. FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY. UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...NO PCPN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS. THE 5H VORT OVER EASTERN GA...IS PROGGED TO MOVE SE AND PASS SOUTH OF ALL ILM TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN CALM WINDS NEARLY EVERYWHERE...AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS HAVING THINNED OUT...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS. A FEW TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ONES HAVING RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY...MAY OBSERVE IFR FOG. BY MID-MORNING DAYTIME FRI...WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBY TO P6SM WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS MYR/CRE TERMINALS WHERE HAZE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AND REDUCED VSBY TO 4SM TO 6SM THRUOUT THE DAY. THIS USUALLY OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WHERE THE SFC PG REMAINS RELAXED AHEAD OF IT WITH NO BIG-TIME MIXING FROM ALOFT. VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE REMAIN A BIT HESITANT ON WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EITHER ALONG OR POSSIBLY AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDE CONVECTION VCNTY FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COOL FRONT IN ORDER TO UPGRADE VCSH TO VCTS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE FRONTS PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BE SUBTLE WITH A CHANGE IN THE WIND DIRECTIONS FROM SW-NW TO NE- E OCCURRING FROM AFTER DAYBREAK FRI THRU MID EVENING FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR...IN MORNING FOG...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY TIME FRAME. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT MADE UP OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT... WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY 3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS SEVERELY LIMITED. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...MJC/REK/RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...MJC/REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ

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