Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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785 FXUS62 KILM 052348 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 748 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW POISED TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. GUTSY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...BUT THESE WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WEAKER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE -26C AT 500 MB CORE OF THE 5H LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP VERY WEAK/LIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND WITH LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER CAPE HATTERAS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PAST BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT AND LAPSE RATES WILL STILL REMAIN STEEP. DO NOT EXPECT SAME ATMOSPHERE AS THURSDAY AS SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND BEST LIFT SHOULD BE LIFTING OFF WITH IT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE POTENT LOW REMAINS CLOSE. THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRI BUT WILL WARM TO THE MID OR UPPER 70S BY SAT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG SE RIDGING DEVELOPS. UPPER LOW PLAGUING THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY...AND WHILE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION...BLOSSOMING OF UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF COAST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPEDED ITS PROGRESS. GFS IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION (OPPOSITE OF YESTERDAY) WHILE THE ECM/CMC SHOW SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION AND WILL SHOW A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTH AND KEEP ANY POP CONFINED OUT OF THE CWA. THEREAFTER...HEAT RETURNS TO THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 15C AS THICKNESSES RISE AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...BUT MON-THU WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S...COOLER AT THE COAST. AS THIS HEAT INCREASES...HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW...AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS NOT EVIDENT ON THE LONG TERM SO NATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL MAINTAIN BARELY MENTIONABLE POP. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE VERY NEAR WILMINGTON HAS A LARGE COUNTERCLOCKWISE SWIRL OF WIND AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING IT. AS THIS LOW NUDGES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT ILM TO BECOME NW AND GUSTY. VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN AND NEAR SHOWERS WHERE 2500-3000 FOOT CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...BASED ON LATEST BUOY AND SHORE REPORTS...OUTSIDE OF ANY MARINE CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAIN ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE AND SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN 4 TO 5 FT BEYOND 10 NM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS. CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS IS WINDING DOWN AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING WITH SEAS LIKELY DIPPING UNDER 5 FT BY MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE NW FRI NIGHT AND SHIFT TO MORE W-SW SAT NIGHT...REMAINING MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT MOST OF THE TIME. THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS GREATEST SEAS OFFSHORE WITH 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AND ITS STRENGTH WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY WHEN SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE PERSISTENT WINDS COMBINED WITH LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM FORMED THROUGH A SOUTHERLY 4-5 SEC WAVE AND A SE 8-9 SEC WAVE...WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT FORECAST THROUGHOUT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...III AVIATION...TRA

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