Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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045 FXUS62 KILM 241740 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Remnant tropical moisture from previous storm Cindy will pass across the region this afternoon through early Sunday, bringing a good chance of rain, which may be heavy at times overnight. Slightly cooler and much drier air will move into the region early next week. A warming trend is expected mid to late of this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1013 AM Saturday...The morning soundings are are showing a very moist and unstable atmosphere. The precipitable waters across the southeast are all under 2", the GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water is showing a nice ribbon of 2.2" PW falling between the KGSO, KMHX, and KCHS. The Mean level CAPE at maximum heating is running around 1650 J/kg, and the wet bulb zero is a very high 13815 feet. The Storm Prediction Center has put the are in a marginal risk and the threat is for wind damage. Also, with the high PW and the steady southwest flow there is a threat of very heavy rain and possible short fused flooding later in the day. The convection is expected to first develop around 12 PM along the ribbon of high precipitable waters which mainly will be in an area northwest of a Burgaw to Kingstree and then slowly moving to the coast later this evening. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Saturday...By daybreak Sunday the axis of maximum PWAT values will be edging offshore, taking the potential for the heaviest of rainfall with it to sea. Surface convergence however will linger farther inland intrinsic with the surface trough, and thus rain should be ongoing at this time, in a scattered to likely fashion, favored across the eastern zones where the overlap with higher column moisture prevails. Through the day on Sunday showers should be tapering off from west to east primarily due to H8-H6 drying. The surface trough/front will cross the coast Sunday afternoon so maximum temperatures Monday may be a few degrees cooler compared to Sunday even though the air may be slightly rain-cooled Sunday. Relatively cooler air to usher in Tuesday, middle and upper 60s and drier. Moisture will linger along and near the coast Monday where isolated convection may form, but could just end up as cumulus. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday...Mid level troughiness sharpens through Tuesday. Initially a dry westerly flow but a slightly more moisture-laden WSW flow through Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be held a bit below climatology through this time frame. The trough axis appears to swing through on Wednesday bringing a more decided drying. The rest of period will be characterized by a building upper ridge over the Southeast and Bahamas. This will mark a transition back towards seasonable temperatures and isolated convection mainly during the diurnal maximum. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 18 UTC...Convection beginning over inland TAF sites. Coverage of convection is expected to increase and move to the coast generally after 19 UTC and be in the general area through midnight. Mainly VFR outside convection with MVFR ceilings and isolated IFR visibilities if convection occurs over airport. At this time will go with VCTS. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in thunderstorms Sunday afternoon then mainly VFR conditions has drier air moves in the area.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1013 AM Saturday...Currently at Frying Pan Shoals Buoy the wind is from the southwest at 20 with gust to 25kt and seas running 6.5 feet. Closer to the coast at 41110 seas are at 5 feet. This will be maintained over night so the small craft advisory will continue. Also, tide levels along the coast will be very low around 2 pm today with heights at Wrightsville Beach and Myrtle Beach dropping to -1.5 and -1.6 respectively. This may make it tricky maneuver boats through the inlets. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Saturday...This will be an improving marine period as both winds and seas drop off, as a front nears and moves off the coast. SW wind-waves will dampen through the day Sunday, but an opposing NW-N later Sunday will cause a bit of sea state confusion but conditions will still improve because the post frontal winds will not be all that strong. Monday however a slight high pressure surge could bring 20 KT gusts so seas may hold in a 2-4 foot range. Sunday morning visibilities offshore may range from 1-3 NM in areas of heavy showers and storms. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Not a typical summertime pattern in place for most of the period. A sharpening mid level trough will be in place. A series of weak surface boundaries may come through but with only very minor fluctuations of wind direction, though a northerly component will dominate. Wind speeds never really look to exceed 10kt by much though a few higher gusts will be possible. Seas will average 2 to occasionally 3 ft with near shore wave shadowing much more pronounced than usual this time of year where SW winds much more common. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...HAWKINS

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