Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 020520 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 120 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS. THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY. STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL LONG WAVE H/5 TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH P/W VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR THESE REASONS WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL BE IFFY SO DO NOT THINK WE CAN YET PIN DOWN WHEN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN. OTHER TRIGGERS TO CONVECTION WILL ALSO EXIST...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FURTHER COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FLATTEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW LEAVING A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ACT TO DEEPEN LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DECENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE SHEER AND SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALSO WILL DRIVE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND DEBRIS CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST MON INTO TUE AND SHOULD PUSH ANY LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST. THEREFORE MAY SEE LESS COVERAGE FOR TUE BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER FRONT OR MAY ENHANCE LEESIDE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN COME WED. OVERALL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...CLOSE TO 90 DURING THE DAY AND 70 TO 75 AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN TO SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE E TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ELEVATED SW WINDS...GIVEN 25 KT JETTING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH WEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PUMP WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND 4 TO 7 FT ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT WE WILL POST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING THIS BOUNDARY TO REACH INTO OUR WATERS...BUT SHOULD ACT TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT FLOW INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH SAT AFTN BUT PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO INCREASE WINDS AGAIN THROUGH SAT AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS UP NEAR 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS WITH SOME 6 FTERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT...TO DECREASE DOWN TO 3 TO 5 FT AND KEEP ON A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY AND FLOW MAY BECOME MORE OFF SHORE WHICH WILL DROP SEAS EVEN FURTHER.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR/RJD

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