Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 252012 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THEA AREA AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND FRONT WELL INLAND BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS JUST ALONG AND OFF THE COAST WILL BE MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF SHORE AS LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN WELL SOUTH OF AREA. THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IT WILL DEEPEN BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW WHICH ALLOWED THE COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROVIDING A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS SHOW PCP WATER DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEP FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH PCP BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE DEEPEST CONVECTION OCCURS IN BEST CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT THE COAST HAS BEEN QUITE DRY LATELY AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING IN NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVE INLAND. AS LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END WHILE WAA WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ACTUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS EVE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVECTS WARMER AIR ON SHORE. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT TAIL END OF MIN TEMP FORECAST GRID IN CAA ON THE BACK END OF LOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE HUGGING THE COAST WILL BE MOVING N OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE NORTH CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM SSW TO NNE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WED MORNING...BUT EXPECT BY AFTERNOON...THE RISK FOR RAINFALL WILL HAVE ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF AFTERNOON RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS WED MORNING THROUGHOUT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE... EAST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ONE VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE N LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY THE COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DECREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MAY ACTUALLY BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N. TEMPS ON WED WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. IN FACT HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED IN MANY CASES PRIOR TO OR AROUND SUNRISE. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THE COAST WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM EYF TO HYW AND POINTS W. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OF NOT DROP A DEGREE OR TWO. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. EVEN THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK GIVEN THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WORKING TO THE COAST FROM THE W WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS AT 850 MB THU WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE AND WE DO EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DEVELOP THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING PROGRESSIVE. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN FRI...BUT TEMPS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE QUICK TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE MODIFYING HIGH OFF THE COAST WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SAT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO SAT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRI. EARLY NEXT WEEK 5H RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FL. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS TIMED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT. FRONT WILL PASS DRY FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING. LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS INCREASE UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERLY PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WED. WE DO THINK THESE CONDITIONS MAY WANE WED EVE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REDEVELOP FOR A TIME LATE WED NIGHT AND THU AS BACKSWELL FROM COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WORKS DOWN THE COAST. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W AND COASTAL LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AS SURGE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW OR TRANSITIONING TO NW WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. THE DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED NIGHT AND THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW AND THEN N. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 TO 8 FT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SAT AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED LATER SAT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT FRI MORNING DROP TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT AND 2 FT OR LESS SAT AND SUN.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL

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