Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251047 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. DRY BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THE COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WAS VERY PATCHY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ONE OF PERSISTENCE. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN ITS ORIENTATION AS IT RIDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER TODAY AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO SHOWING MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION BRUSHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE PORTRAYING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING ONTO THE COAST LATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF INLAND AND AN INCH ON THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE...EVEN INLAND...WHERE THE MOISTURE IS GREATEST AND DEEPEST...SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF DRY AIR PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING EVEN SMALL POPS ANYWHERE...BUT WILL SHOW THEM INCREASING TO NEAR THRESHOLD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING OCEAN SHOWERS ADVECTING ONTO LAND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND THEN RIDING UP TO OUR SW AND W AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL SKIRT COMMUNITIES ALONG AND W OF A CKI TO UDG LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE...10 TO 20 MPH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS A LITTLE TIGHTER TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY SO WOULD EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST HIGHER MORE FREQUENTLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. THE DIURNAL CURVE WILL FLATTEN ONCE THE BEACHES REACH THE UPPER 70S LATE THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE LATE NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE BEACHES AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MID- WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY A TEXTBOOK BERMUDA-HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINES WITH AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY THANKS TO A SUBSIDENT INVERSION AND VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY WHERE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.9 INCHES...BUT EVEN THERE ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED...WITH SOME LOW-END CHC DARLINGTON/MARLBORO/ROBESON COUNTIES. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY FORCED. TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR 80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUATION OF THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPINS OFFSHORE AND RIDGES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY PEAK THURSDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE INLAND HALF OF THE CWA. FRI-SUN...RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW- LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FURTHER AND DRIVES 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND 16C. SO...WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE WKND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD 90S LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND...ALTHOUGH BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE IN PLACE PREVENTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONTINUED ADVECTION OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...IT MAY BEGIN TO FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE AROUND THE AREA NEXT WKND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...AN EARLY SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS IN CHECK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH A THIN BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS SWAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY...3 TO 4 FT. A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL WILL CONTINUE. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE CREATES RATHER CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SE OR SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM 10-15 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM A 7-8 SEC SE GROUND SWELL INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK GRADIENT...AND SE WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT. THESE RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4 FT...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND WEAK WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43

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