Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301737 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC...CORRECTED 130 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...TODAY`S FORECAST HAS SOME TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL. NOT ONLY IS IT QUITE CLOUDY BUT 12Z AREA RAOBS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE THICK AND THEREFORE HARD-PRESSED FOR MANY BREAKS. AS SUCH TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE. LOWERED HIGHS BY 2 DEGREES AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE TO DO SO AGAIN. SIMILARLY WE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DESTABILIZING SO REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING THAT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NNE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...REACHING THE NC MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE 2 COMBINED WX PHENOMENA...WILL BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE PWS INCREASING FROM 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES EARLY THIS MORNING...TO 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES BY THIS EVENING THRU MONDAY DAYBREAK. AT THE SFC...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR NOW JUST A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL GET DRAWN BACK TO THE WEST TO THE IMMEDIATE ILM COASTLINE BY TONIGHT. WITH PCPN CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS NOW AVBL ACROSS THE ILM CWA FROM SFC CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW...THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT INCREASING POPS TODAY THRU TONIGHT. WILL PEAK IN THE GOOD CHANCE TO POSSIBLY LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. WILL ASSIGN THE ATTRIBUTE...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY DURING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STAYED ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PCPN SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE FA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS FOR TONIGHTS MINS...STAYED CLOSER TO A WARM/MILD BIAS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER UNSETTLED COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE AS SEEN ON INFRARED IMAGERY EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE TROPICS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS. I HAVE ELEVATED POPS MAINLY FOR MONDAY TO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. SOME DRYING IS NOTED IN THE PROFILES FOR TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE GFS BUT THE NAM REMAINS BULLISH ON POPS. TO COMPROMISE I DID DECREASE THE POPS SOMEWHAT TUESDAY BUT STILL ADVERTISING CHANCE VALUES AREA WIDE. I TRIMMED BACK EXPECTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY AND INCREASED THE MORNING LOWS THE SAME DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTURE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THERE REMAINS AMPLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE CONVECTION AND WITH A SUBTLE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND COASTAL TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME...PRUDENT TO KEEP GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DO HINT AT A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD DRY THINGS OUT. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH LOWER POPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY MAINLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. THE COLUMN BECOMES FAIRLY SATURATED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAM IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH HIGH POPS AND IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. THE GFS HAS LOWER POPS AND MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS. WILL GO WITH A BIT OF A HYBRID OF THE TWO...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY INLAND. A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CEILINGS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL GIVE US UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. A BIT BETTER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLICABLE: AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST GROUND SWELL AROUND 3 FT...UP TO 4 FT CURRENTLY ACROSS 41013...EXHIBITING 11 SECOND PERIODS...WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGHOUT THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. THIS IS THE SWELL CREATED BY ERIKA AS SEEN BY LOOPS OF WAVEWATCH3 MODEL WAVE DATA. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS...WILL RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW JUST A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE...TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE WEST INTO THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL RUN NE-E TODAY...E TO SE...TO POSSIBLY S DURING TONIGHT. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG...WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10 KT OR LESS. LOOK FOR FURTHER VEERING TO E-SE AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING SUN AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY MID TO LATE SUN EVENING. THUS NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE WHEN COMPUTING THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SE GROUND SWELL FOR ANY FLUCTUATIONS HIGHER THAT COULD RESULT IN THRESHOLDS BEING REACHED FOR A SCEC...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SCA. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING...IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY MONDAY AS GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH. SHOULD SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND BASICALLY DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE WEAK WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS DEVELOP WITH THE DIRECTIONS MAINLY DICTATED BY THE LAND AND SEA BREEZES. SEAS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2-4 FEET MONDAY MORNING AND TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY SYNOPTICALLY TO SHOW ANY DEVIATION FROM THE STANDARD SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF WEAK SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. SOME CONVECTION COULD BRIEFLY DISTORT THESE FIELDS OCCASIONALLY BUT THESE SHOULD HOLD FOR THE MOST PART.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...JDW/SHK AVIATION...43

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