Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 050620 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 220 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S. COAST...AND THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SEASONAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IN TENNESSEE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF NC. ALTHOUGH FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL...THERE IS A HINT OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF POPS PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LOWER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER PLAY AND WILL ONCE AGAIN APPLY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY...THE CAROLINAS WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WHILE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS REMAIN SITUATED ON THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. AS IT EXITS NORTHEASTWARD...A SHORTWAVE LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE TN/KY BORDER WHICH FORMS INTO A CUT OFF LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TREKS NORTHWARD. S/W ENERGY FROM THE FEATURE NEARS THE CAROLINAS BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT TO MAKE IT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH ITS INFLUENCE ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AS WELL AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...OTHER LINGERING BOUNDARIES...AND A MOISTURE- RICH ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WITH CLOUD COVER/CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERING EACH DAY...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TREMENDOUS RIDGING AND RECORD HEAT IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE CALIFORNIA...CAUSING DOWNSTREAM FLATTENING OF THE FLOW WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AS THE RIDGING INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK...SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL BE MOSTLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE AREA SO POP WILL REMAIN BELOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CHANCES...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY. GUIDANCE TRIES TO PUSH A DYING COLD FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS DIVING INTO THE RIDGE SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT WILL SHOW A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY WITH AT LEAST WESTERLY WINDS EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF ON SATURDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD...SO WHILE TUE/WED AND SAT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THU/FRI. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE KCRE EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR AS A MARINE AIRMASS SATURATED FROM EARLIER STORMS MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS WILL BE SSW BECOMING A MORE WESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVED VSBYS AT KCRE. THERE WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AFTER SUNRISE SW-WSW WINDS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS DECREASING. BY LATE MORNING THE BEST CHANCE OF VCTS WILL BE AT KFLO. TOWARDS AFTERNOON BOTH KFLO/KLBT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR VCTS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WORKS WELL INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SW. WINDS WILL BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE LATE MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUES FOR THE WATERS THROUGH 6 AM AS A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE HIGH SIDE OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE CONTINUES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SAME RANGE. TONIGHT LOOKS QUIETER AS WELL FROM A WIND SPEED STANDPOINT AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST FEW CYCLES IS WEAKER. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN AT 6 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF THE SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES OUTPACING THE SMALL 1 TO 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL. THE COMBINATION OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU DAYBREAK SUN. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NEAR THE AREA COULD CREATE A BRIEFLY TIGHTENED GRADIENT. AS FOR SEAS...WILL SEE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR- SHORE SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE W/SW AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL INLAND FROM THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-4 FT EACH DAY...WITH A WEAK SE 9 SEC SWELL COMBINING WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP THE SPECTRUM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...SGL LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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