Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040325 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1025 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION VIA LATEST KLTX AND SURROUNDING 88DS...EXTENDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF NC AND SC WITHIN THE ILM CWA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ENCOUNTERED SOME ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE UNFAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN LET ALONE DEVELOP CONVECTION. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THERE IS AVBL CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...LOOK FOR THIS LEADING EDGE TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...AND SLOWLY FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS BEFORE STALLING. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE TROUBLE SUSTAINING ITSELF WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO SSTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY REFIRE ONCE IT HITS THOSE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ILM CWA AFTER THE INITIAL CONVECTION PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. BY DAYBREAK THU...A GOOD SWATH OF 0.90 TO 1.30 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE ILM CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ACROSS LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. TONIGHTS LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK THU. AND IN TURN... THESE LOWS MAY ACTUALLY BE THURSDAYS HIGHS DEPENDING HOW MUCH CAA MAKES IT INTO THE ILM CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER COPIOUS RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY THURSDAY AS A FAIRLY FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW BEARING DOWN FROM THE WEST. BY THE TIME THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD NET TWO INCHES TO TWO AND A QUARTER. THIS IS FAR ENOUGH BELOW FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND WELL MIXED KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S EVEN AS TEMPS ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES ON THE VERY TAIL END OF THE PRECIP. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE THE STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN DUE TO 34 S-1 VORT BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEAKLY DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM ALOFT RELOADING TO OUR WEST. MOST PLACES WILL STRUGGLE TO ABOUT 50 DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING START TO NEXT WEEK SHAPING UP DURING THE PERIOD. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SAT WITH ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GULF COAST...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SAT NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPS SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA SUN MORNING. THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE CONCERNING THE LOWS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. STRENGTH AND TRACK BOTH HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON PRECIP TYPE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH WPC...IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COLD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS THE EVENT ENDS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HOWEVER HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND SLOWER...WITH MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN. THIS IS DOWN TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE A DEEPER SYSTEM AT 500 MB...WHICH MEANS MORE COLD AIR AND SLOWER MOVEMENT. SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS NEW AND NOT REALLY IN LINE WITH GFS ENSEMBLES OR WPC IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING. STACKED LOW EXITS NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT BUT BROAD 5H TROUGH LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MON INTO TUE WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM -10C TO -15C AS THE PERIOD ENDS. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IMPACTED KLBT AND KFLO ATTM. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST HAS LEAD TO MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH LIMITED IF ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THESE TERMINALS. COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO IFR PERHAPS LIFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS NEAR THE FRONT. MAIN ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW CEILINGS...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNTIL FROPA DURING THE MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS KLBT/KFLO. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF IMPROVEMENT AFTER 05/00Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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`S VERY RAINY AFTERNOON. AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES BY FLOW WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO WHERE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW ACCELERATES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH SCEC-WORTHY SEAS MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE WATERS ON SAT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 KT SAT STARTS TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS STEADILY INCREASE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SCA LIKELY AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. ANY GALES WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DECREASING LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST. WEAK GRADIENT BRIEFLY IN PLACE MON WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10 KT EARLY MON MORNING BUT BY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 KT...AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS DECREASING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD START TO BUILD SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUN...PEAKING JUST SHORT OF 10 FT SUN NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS INTO MON EVENING BEFORE SEAS START BUILDING AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MAC

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