Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 071721 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 122 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN INLAND AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...REMNANT COLD FRONT/TROUGH STALLED OFFSHORE IS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND INCREASING RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTN. WHILE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THANKS TO THE RETURN FLOW...OVERALL POP WILL REMAIN LOW THANKS TO VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700 AND 400 MB. SO...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 90 THIS AFTN...DRIVING SBCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG...PWATS STRUGGLE TO JUST AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND A MID-LEVEL LID EXISTS AROUND 600 MB. EXPECT THE NEGATIVE INDICATORS TO TRUMP THE POSITIVE TODAY...AND THUS HAVE CARRIED ONLY SCHC ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THIS EVE. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW PICKS UP THANKS TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND THUS MINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S...BUT AT THE COAST WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S LIKELY AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE AND OVERALL MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS RETURN. HOWEVER...SHOULD NOTE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND ITS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT THE INFILTRATION OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES EVIDENT PER LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...DO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY REACH 100 IN SOME LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS...BUT WILL STAY BELOW HEAT INDEX ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS THIS FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH BUT IT THEN SLOWS DOWN/STALLS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. INTO FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT TO THEN SLOWLY DROP FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY THE WELL-SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES AND A SUFFICIENT LIFTING MECHANISM...OVERALL EXPECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME A BIT QUIETER ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES IN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING QUICKLY TO AROUND 1.4 - 1.5 INCHES. MONDAY EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR CONVECTION AS A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH ACTIVITY TO WARRANT VCSH/VCTS. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WINDS WILL BE S-SSW 10-15 KTS. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SSW-SW AT 3-6 KTS AT KFLO/KLBT AND 7-12 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SOME STRATUS AROUND 500 FEET COULD DEVELOP AT KFLO/KLBT OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE EXCEPT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...DECAYING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED WELL EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THUS HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE IS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE LOCALLY. WINDS FROM THE W/SW WILL VEER MORE TO THE S/SW THIS AFTN...WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. A SEA BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WINDS TO SOUTH IN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVE. SEAS OF 1-2 FT THIS MORNING WILL RISE SLOWLY ON THE INCREASING WINDS...BECOMING 2-4 FT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AND ALLOW FOR A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ON TUESDAY...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS ONLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY OF 10 TO 15 KTS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO NEAR 20 KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT OF WINDS EXPECT CHOPPY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ON THURSDAY...BECOMING 2 TO 3 FT BY FRIDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SGL NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...SGL LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...MRR MARINE...JDW/SGL

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