Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201454 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1054 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN IN HUMIDITY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC AROUND 70 THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN BELOW 60 WHILE HEADING SOUTH TEMPS REACHING UP NEAR 80 BY 9AM WITH DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70. OVERALL NOT A HUGE CHANGE IN AIR MASS AS MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW REMAINS ALOFT ALLOWING BOUNDARY TO MEANDER OVER SOUTH CAROLINAS JUST SOUTH OR NEAR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAA BEHIND FRONT THIS MORNING. BETTER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT REACHING INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE FAR INTERIOR SC. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW NEAR THE COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE ON SHORE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE BACK ON SHORE AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. ANOTHER FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG WEAKENING BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE LINGERING FRONT OVER COASTAL SC TO PRODUCE SOME STORMS...MAINLY REACHING INTO GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES AND ALONG INTERIOR OF COASTAL COUNTIES UP TO CAPE FEAR. THE STEERING FLOW IS OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 KT AND WILL PUSH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP EAST TOWARD THE COAST. ONCE HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF THIS EVENING THE SHWRS/TSTMWILL DIMINISH. A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS SPINNING UP A SFC LOW WHICH WILL RIDE EAST TOWARD THE MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BACKING OF WINDS TO THE S-SW OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS...LIFTING BOUNDARY NORTH. BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN ALONG COAST OR OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WEST-NORTHWEST OF AREA BUT MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE ON SHORE AND SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN MILD FROM MID 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 70 COASTAL ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH AH H5 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWEEP THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT TO SEA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIR WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S NORTHERN TIER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90 TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN TO THE AREA AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS MANY OF THE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE SUBTLE AS WE HEAD INTO AN EARLY SUMMER PATTERN. WITH ALL THE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THINK THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES DID HAVE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN SO THEY COULD GET INTO THE ACT ALSO. BRIEF ROUNDS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN BY EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AS YET ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CAUTION STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES BUT CHANGEABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AND SPIKE UP A LITTLE BUT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST WATERS. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS MAINLY TONIGHT. SEAS ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...COMPOSED OF E WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT/MODERATE WIND CHOP FROM THE N-NE. VISIBILITIES MAY BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED BELOW 3NM IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK OF THURSDAY. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY WHICH WILL VEER TO THE SE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE ON TAP FOR THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...DL

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