Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 182332 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 632 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will pass through the area late tonight and Sunday morning. The front may be accompanied by some gusty late night showers. The front will usher in much colder and drier air with Monday seeing the lowest daytime highs with the possibility for a freeze or frost late Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures will moderate Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast uncertainty increases mid to late next week as another cold front moves into the area. The weather could turn unsettled and will hinge on the track of developing low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...A potent shortwave as seen on water vapor imagery across Kansas will rapidly move across the area tonight all the while shearing out. This will bring a moisture challenged cold front across the area with timing a couple of hours either side of 12 UTC. Models have trended drier with the front with at most a broken line of fast moving showers moving from west to east. Winds will crank up tonight ahead of the front at 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. With the fast moving flow, clouds and what few showers there are will clear out quickly Sunday. Lows tonight will not fall off much with the gradient increasing with middle to upper 50s common. For Sunday there is some cold air advection but certainly not overwhelming with highs in the lower to middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...With PW values a mere 0.2" for much of the period there will likely not be a cloud in sight. The exception may be some wisps of cirrus Monday night as some upper jetting strengthens off the coast and the Carolinas end up near the left entrance region. Mid level clouds may also be lurking close by to our SW in a tongue of enhanced warm advection. While moisture will be in short supply cold air will not. Forecast soundings show as little as 2000ft of vertical mixing through Monday afternoon, keeping high temperatures mired in the 50s even as moderate warm advection will be occurring at higher levels. Both nights will feature an inland light freeze while temperatures closer to the water remain in the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...A couple of short wave troughs in the southern stream will have some impact on area weather in much of the extended period though confidence is currently low in exactly what those impacts will be due to model divergence. The first upper trough will bring a chance of showers to the area Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. After this fropa, the second upper trough could spawn low development along the front off shore and bring rain to the area Thursday into Friday. For now...the forecast reflects slight chance to chance pops Tuesday into Wednesday with slight chance pops for Wed night into Friday. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals of the mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday before falling back into the mid to upper 50s for Thursday and Friday. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Mins will see a similar trend falling from the mid to upper 40s Tuesday night to the mid 30s to around 40 Thursday night before rebounding to the 40s by Saturday night. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 23Z...Southerly low-level jetting will spread across the eastern Carolinas overnight ahead of a cold front. Gusts will diminish from west to east on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west. Expect primarily VFR ceilings, with a narrow band of scattered light showers possible, mainly along the front. The worst of the wind will remain just above the surface tonight due to poor vertical mixing. Winds 500-2000 feet AGL should increase to 35-40 knots from the south between 03-05Z Sunday. With the front expected to be offshore by sunrise Sunday, post-frontal winds should veer northwesterly with speeds gradually diminishing throughout the day. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday morning. There is potential for MVFR ceilings Tuesday night through Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Quiet enough over the coastal waters currently with with winds in the lower teens and seas three feet or so. Winds and seas will rapidly increase this evening through the overnight hours well into a 25-30 knot range. This, as strong low level jetting precedes a cold front. There may be some gusts into Gale criteria but since the strongest winds will be in warm air advection, the need for a Gale warning isn`t a given. Winds turn offshore early Sunday, from the north, northwest at 15-20. Significant seas ramp up quickly from the current three feet to well over small craft criteria by midnight and continue through most of the day Sunday. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Sunday night brings a moderately strong yet relaxing gradient as chilly high pressure airmass builds in from the west. Flow will veer slightly from NW to N or even NE and advisory- worthy wind speeds should be outside of the 20nm zones. On Monday expect a more pronounced relaxation of winds and seas due to the high moving overhead. The high remains over the area Monday night while elongating to the east. Winds will remain minimal and turn onshore while seas smooth into the 1-2 ft range most areas. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Return flow behind the departing high Tuesday will buckle as a coastal trough develops along the Southeast coast. Winds should turn easterly on Tuesday, then perhaps southeasterly for a time Tuesday night as the trough makes its closest approach to shore, but by Wednesday morning the feature should retreat back offshore as high pressure advances across the Ohio Valley and shifts our winds to a more north to northeast direction. Light winds and slight seas are expected until Wednesday night or Thursday when NE winds of 15 to 20 KT could build seas to 4 to 5 FT with 6 footers possible at 20 NM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...JDW/SHK SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...CRM/TRA

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