Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230500 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 100 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably cool weather will continue Sunday followed by a brief warm-up Monday. A reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night will set the stage for dry weather and seasonable temperatures for much of the upcoming week. A low pressure system will approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1030 PM Saturday...Big 1022 mb high pressure over the Mid- South is pushing eastward, bringing in the coldest airmass of the Fall season so far. Under clear skies lows should fall to 40-45, warmest along the beaches where winds will likely remain around 10 mph overnight. A few inland locations have already decoupled with calm winds and temps in the mid 40s even at 10 pm. The last time temps were this cool was back on April 18th when morning lows included 41 in Wilmington, 42 in Florence, and 41 in North Myrtle Beach. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Although tomorrow will only be a few degrees milder than today it will feel moreso due to the lack of today`s gusty breezes. The center of the surface ridge ends up to our south by evening at which time we will see a light S to SW wind. Boundary layer temperatures will be recovering so Sunday night lows will be in the mid to upper 40s despite the continued light winds and clear sky. Warm advection strengthens on Monday ahead of a cold front and afternoon temps should shoot nicely into the upper 70s. This moisture-starved boundary comes through Monday evening. The gusto of its cold advection will not match that of the previous cold front keeping Monday night`s lows seasonable. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Surface high building in from the north at the start of the period will gradually shift east during the week. Cool northeast flow at the surface Tue and Wed will veer to southeast Thu as the ridge axis moves off the coast. At this point the forecast becomes less clear due to uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the upper pattern. Early in the week 5h trough lifts northeast and weak ridge builds east. Period of ridging is short lived and by Thu afternoon/evening the 5h shortwave ridge will be replaced by troughing associated with 5h shortwave crossing the Great Lake/OH Valley regions. The uncertainty during the second half of the period stems from the strength of the 5h trough Thu/Fri. Both GFS/ECMWF solutions drive a cold front into the area late Thu night or Fri but the amount of forcing and moisture differs. GFS is less amplified and drier while the ECMWF is showing more amplification of the 5h trough and increased moisture as well as much better precip chances. Compromise between the 2 solutions matches up well with the inherited forecast as well as the offerings from WPC so for now will continue to carry slight chc to low chc pop Late Thu and Fri with drier and slightly cooler conditions for Sat. However, temps Sat would still be above normal as both solutions lack strong cold advection. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Nearly ideal flight conditions with a crystal clear sky dome and unlimited visibility at present. W-NW winds 5 knots or less early this morning becoming W-WSW 7 knots AFT 14Z, and remaining clear with full VFR through the TAF cycle. AFT 00Z LGT and VRBL to calm winds this evening through 6Z. Extended Outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Saturday...Inland temperatures are falling quickly through the 40s and 50s. As this cold air pushes off the beaches and encounters sea surface temperatures still in the 70s, deep mixing is developing with 20-22 knot wind gusts tumbling down to the surface. Expect 15-20 kt winds to persist overnight from the northwest as high pressure over the Mid-South pushes eastward. With the short offshore fetch seas have fallen to only 2-4 feet, mainly in short period (3-4 second) wind chop and highest in the Cape Fear vicinity. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Wind and seas subside a bit early Sunday as the ridge axis moves across but then picks up later in the day. At this time no advisories or even cautionary headlines appear necessary. Monday brings back a diminishing trend as the surface trough associated with a cold front becomes rather diffuse, weakening the gradient. FROPA will bring a sharp veer to N or NNE but not a significant surge, again precluding any headlines. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Pinched gradient Tue morning in the wake of the exiting cold front will keep northeast flow 15 to 20 kt into Wed. Gradient slowly relaxes and by Wed northwest winds will be 10 to 15 kt. Surface ridge axis shifts off the coast Thu with winds veering to southeast. Gradient remains light with speeds staying around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft Tue and Wed drop to 2 to 3 ft Thu. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...8 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.