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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 151908
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...CU FIELD HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT THIS WILL FADE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT WE CAN EXPECT
SOME THIN AND PATCHY CIRRUS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THOUGH. A DRY
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE.

A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL 1022MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NC
AND VA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS
DEVELOPED...BRINGING TEMPERATURES THERE CLOSER TO 80.

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LESS COOL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE...STILL EXPECT
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR
AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER BEFORE MOISTURE LEVELS MORE TYPICAL
RETURN MONDAY.  INCREASED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY SHOULD REACH THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.  MINIMUMS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION LATE TUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT LESS SO FOR STRONG STORMS. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING LIMITED TO POTENTIAL SEA
BREEZE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD THE FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. HAVE BUMPED POP TO LIKELY FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT.

FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED THEN STALLS AS WEAK 5H
TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES BOUNDARY PARALLEL.
EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE WHERE HIGHEST POP WILL
BE...BOTH GFS/ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO WARRANT CARRYING A CHC POP FOR EACH DAY. HARD TO NAIL DOWN
WHICH DAY HAS BETTER/BEST PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME SO
WILL CARRY CHC POP EACH DAY FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH
LOWS ABOVE CLIMO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW A SOUTHEAST RESULTANT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERHAPS REACHING THE INLAND TERMINALS
AFTER 20Z.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIANS MAY
DRIFT IN THIS AFTERNOON ALSO. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 08Z. MOISTURE PROFILES STILL APPEAR TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG. SUNDAY...VFR WITH A BIT OF A STRONGER
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INTERMITTENT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 FT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN NC AND VA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT OVER THE WATERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. AS CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL BASICALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER IN A TYPICAL RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE S
TO SW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST AND GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KT BUT HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENT MAY END UP BEING A MARGINAL LIMITED DURATION
SCA WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM APPROACHING 6 FT. FRONT REACHES THE WATERS
BY WED MORNING WITH BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...LESS
THAN 10 KT...THOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. SEAS WILL DROP FROM
3 TO 5 FT WED MORNING TO 2 TO 3 FT THU.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL