Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250536 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1236 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND FRIDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM...AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 3-5 AM. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LATER TODAY. CHANGES WITH THIS NEAR-TERM UPDATE FOCUS ON PRECIP COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS... THERE IS NO LONGER A SEVERE WX THREAT ACROSS THE ILM CWA. THE BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOW OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS PARALLELING THE CAROLINA COASTLINES FROM OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTHWARD TO OFF CAPE ROMAIN. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND. THIS UPDATE WILL CONCENTRATE ON EVEN FURTHER LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THRUOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS SLATED TO PUSH FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE ILM CWA AND OFF THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HRS THRU THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A THIN BAND OF POST FRONTAL -SHRA TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FA...AND WILL LEAVE IN A LOW CHANCE POP CHANCE UP TO AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK THU. HAVE RE-TWEAKED HOURLY SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. HAVE KEPT MORNING MINS BASICALLY THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS 730 PM UPDATE. THE LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT OR 1-2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 334 PM WEDNESDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS THAT SUNSHINE IS SLATED TO MAKE A DEBUT CHRISTMAS DAY AS SHARP DRYING FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OUT TO SEA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF GULF COAST ORIGIN WILL RESULT IN WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AND MAXIMUMS WILL REBOUND SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR LATE DECEMBER. FRIDAY DAYBREAK LIKELY THE COLDEST TEMPS THIS PERIOD WITH 30S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...CLIMBING 25-28 DEGREES F BY AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S UNDER SUNSHINE AND A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND PLEASANT BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A SERIES OF WAVES TRAVEL ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. BY DAYS 6/7 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING COOLING AND UNDERCUTS THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO MURKY CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN/SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD WILL REACH FLO AROUND 0600Z...LBT AROUND 0700Z...MYR AND CRE AROUND 0800Z...AND ILM AROUND 0930Z. SOME LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST WITH CEILINGS POTENTIALLY BELOW 1000 FEET AT CRE AND ILM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS THREAT SHOULD END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN WEST WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS TO 20 KT AS COLDER AIR PUNCHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITHIN 1 HR OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY DAYBREAK A MID-LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WILL REMAIN...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...CHANGES TO THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOCUS ON THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH THE SC COAST AROUND 3 AM...AND THE NC COAST BETWEEN 330 AM AND 500 AM. AS THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES ACROSS WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT FROM SW TO W WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 30 KNOTS. OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS... BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS...WINDS AND SEAS TRENDS ACROSS THE ILM WATERS HAVE BASICALLY PEAKED DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...AND ARE NOW HOLDING MORE OR LESS STEADY. DO EXPECT ANOTHER TEMPORARY INCREASE IN WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN THU HRS...LEADING UP TO A FEW HRS AFTER DAYBREAK. BASICALLY JUST AHEAD AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CFP. AS FOR ACTUAL WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VEER FROM THE CURRENT SW DIRECTION...TO WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYLIGHT THU. A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL YIELD SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE LEADING UP TO AND JUST AFTER THE CFP. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RUN 5.0 TO 6.0 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS THURSDAY WILL EASE AND TURN NW LATER IN THE DAY. RESIDUAL WAVE ENERGY WILL TAKE MORNING TO SETTLE AND RECOVER...AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO RUN THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF MORNING. THURSDAY ANY STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF STREAM AND POINTS FARTHER TO SEA. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY AND PLEASANT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS FRIDAY 10 KT OR LESS FROM NE-ESE. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY FEATURES A SURFACE HIGH MIGRATING OFFSHORE AND WEAK RETURN WINDS FROM THE S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE N VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING INCREASING NE WINDS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME AN ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED. RAIN MAY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 2-3 NM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...TRA

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