Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 041414 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1014 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...RADAR SCOPE REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA CONFIRMS EARLIER THINKING REGARDING THE FORECAST...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. SPC NOW HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE THIS MORNING AND LOOKING UPSTREAM...IT MAY CONTINUE TO BE SO FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF SHORTWAVES/CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS BEGINNING ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE IN ALABAMA AND EVEN THE ONE IN ITS WAKE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. OPTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH THIS CYCLE IS A NOD TO THE MAV NUMBERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. A LONGER WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY LEAVING A SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WHICH TRIES TO CLOSE OFF BY LATE SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY WILL REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE HEIGHT FALLS AND HELP ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THROUGH SUNDAY PRODUCING A SHIFT IN WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH OR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE N-NE THROUGH THE AFTN. NAM SHOWS EARLY START TO CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREA BY LATE SUN AFTN BUT ALSO INDICATES SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF I95. MONDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE LOCALIZED CONVECTION AS COLUMN CONTINUES TO BE VERY MOIST WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST...BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OTHER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE DAYTIME HIGHS AND ADD A FEW OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A FLATTER FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SFC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL MOIST SW FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND WEAKENS BUT LOOKS LIKE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURS WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO MORE W TO W-NW. EXPECT LOCALIZED CONVECTION BUT LESS COVERAGE TUES AND WED WITH AN UPTICK ON THURS AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK AND A RISING TREND IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD PRODUCE TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF CLIMO THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ALL THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...AS WELL AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET ALL THAT UNSTABLE. NEVERTHELESS EXPECT MORNING SHOWERS TO END FOLLOWED BY A REFIRING OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THINK THINGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY...WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATER TODAY. FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP 850 MB TRANSPORT WINDS MOVING THROUGH. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LATEST OBS SHOW 3 TO 4 FT SEAS WITH SW WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY IN A 15-20 KNOT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A TWELVE HOUR OR SO WINDOW OF LOWER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SCEC CONDITIONS A GIVEN. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS WINDS LIGHTEN ON SUNDAY A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SE SWELL WILL BECOME DOMINANT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY ENHANCED TROUGHINESS EACH AFTN AND SEA BREEZE. EXPECT WINDS SW 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK/SHK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK

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