Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280508 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT TO UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS STABILIZATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY. SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING HOWEVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/8 SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL/8

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