Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KILM 011113
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
614 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
Mild and moist south to southwest winds will continue through
tonight as a strong cold front approaches the Carolinas from
the west. The front will move off the Carolina Coasts and
offshore during Thursday morning, basically around daybreak.
Cooler and drier Canadian high pressure will infiltrate the area
during Thursday through Sunday. Areas of low pressure will
affect the area late Sunday thru the first half of next week
with clouds and increasing rain chances.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...A cold front will be moving across the area
this morning. The passage of the front will be marked by the arrival
of decidedly drier air. However, much cooler air will not filter into
the area until the passage of a trough this eve. Still ahead of the
front early on, there will be light showers. These showers will end
this morning, lastly along the coast, 12-14z. The showers have
already ended along and west of Interstate 95.
Clearing will arrive before daybreak along and west of Interstate 95
with clearing reaching the immediate coastal communities mid and
High pressure along the Gulf Coast states will build into the area
tonight. Skies will be clear.
Highs this afternoon will be in the mid and upper 60s to near 70 at
the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper 30s to around
40 at the coast.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure will be reinforced from
the NW Friday night into Saturday. The forecast area will remain
under the influence of high pressure through the period with a
good deal of sunshine. A digging southern stream system will be
organizing across the southern plains and western Gulf states,
but its impacts will remain to our west and southwest through
It will be seasonably cool with highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s, with Saturday being the cooler of the two days. Lows will
be in the mid and upper 30s Friday night. Clouds may begin to
become more prevalent overnight Saturday, so will forecast lows
in the upper 30s to lower 40s that night.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Models indicate split flow in the mid-
upper levels thru early Wed. From the Carolinas southward, this
area will be under the influence of sw to wsw upper air flow
coming from the slowly eastward moving Mexican cutoff/closed
upper Low that will push into southern Tx Mon evening. Some
minor timing issues there-after, but for the most part, models
open this upper low into a trof, and further weakens it as it
lifts northeast into and thru a longwave ridge aligned over the
East Coast of the U.S. late Tuesday. It moves, underneath the
longwave ridge, to off the Mid-atlantic states Wed. Overall,
this pattern suggests more clouds and a slight chance for pcpn
initially, then transitions to a possible damming scenario on
Mon thru early Wed with a coastal front/trof lurking just off
the immediate coast. At this point in time, models do not bring
the coastal front/trof onshore. Thus, overall temps this period
will remain at or slightly below climo with no big warm-up given
this scenario playing out. Unless, the coastal front moves
onshore, then a temperature forecast bust will definitely occur.
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 12Z...ILM may see a shower or two over the next hour or so,
otherwise expect VFR conditions at all locations through the
forecast period. Front is currently along the coast with winds at
the coastal terminals expected to shift to the west by TAF valid
time. Skies will scatter along the coast by mid morning while winds
will continue to rotate clockwise to the northwest by afternoon.
Light winds tonight with high pressure building in.
Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. Except, clouds and pcpn
will return at the end of this period with some MVFR/IFR
conditions possible late Sunday thru Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...A cold front will move across the waters by
mid morning. The wind direction will shift from SW to W with its
passage. The passage of a trough this eve will shift winds to the NW
and then N overnight. High pressure will build into the area
tonight. The highest wind speeds will be early in the day ahead of
the front, up to 20 to 25 kt. Wind speeds will be around 15 kt later
this morning and through tonight. Seas will subside sharply through
the period. Seas will be 5 to 8 ft this morning and 2 to 4 ft this
afternoon and tonight.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure will be the main influence
across the waters. The wind direction will remain from the NW or N
through the period, trending to the NE toward sunrise Sunday. Wind
speeds will be 10 to 15 kt Friday, but as the pressure gradient
briefly tightens in response to reinforcing high pressure from the
northwest, wind speeds will trend higher, 15 to 20 kt Friday night
into Saturday morning before returning to 10 to 15 kt Saturday
afternoon and night. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft with perhaps some 4 ft
seas late Friday night into Saturday for portions of the outermost
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...For this 2 day period, winds and seas
will overall be in a diminishing/subsiding trend respectively
from Sunday into the 1st half of Monday.
For the 2nd half of Monday, models do want to instigate a
damming scenario with sfc high ridging south-southwest across
the Central Carolinas from the NE states. And the development
of a coastal front/trof just offshore from the ILM CWA coasts.
At this point, models bring the front/trof into the local waters
late Monday into Tuesday, but not onshore and inland.
Nevertheless, this will make forecasting wind directions a hair
puller for the latter end of this period.
The sfc pg will start out loose but tighten-some at the end of
this period. Thus results in wind speeds increasing especially
on the offshore side of the coastal front late Mon into Tue.
Significant seas will mainly be dominated and a function of wind
driven waves, especially at the end of this period. Eventhough,
latest Wavewatch3 shows SCA thresholds being met Monday night,
will hold off given the too many ifs that could occur preventing
this SCA possibility.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this morning for