Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251130 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 730 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night into early Friday morning. Above normal temperatures are expected into next weekend before a second cold front moves across the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 6 AM Tuesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: A cold front is currently dropping south across the forecast area and will be well to our south by daybreak. A cool and dry airmass will follow, dominating the near term as Canadian high pressure settles over the area. Weather will remain dry with little to no cloud cover. Moderate CAA following FROPA means temperatures will run below normal for today and tonight, with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...The southern extension of a Canadian high pressure system will slowly transit across the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday, with consequent dry weather and below-normal temperatures continuing through at least Wednesday afternoon. For Wednesday night temperatures will raise back near normal as low-level flow becomes easterly with the ridge axis passing offshore. A weak low pressure system will move NE into New England on Thursday, dragging a cold front across the area on Thursday night. Unlike earlier fronts, this one will have a modest amount of moisture accompanying it, so increased cloud cover is likely along with isolated to widely scattered showers. As moisture is shallow and best upper support will be passing well to the north do not expect this to be much of a rain-maker, with only minimal QPF. CAA following FROPA will also be minimal, so do not expect any further cool-down with this system. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday... Cold front comes through dry around the start of the period. This boundary will really only represent a wind shift locally as there is no appreciable cold advection in its wake. In fact the weekend will show a warming trend each day as zonal mid level flow and weak surface return flow persist. The latter will be weak so there will be little to no moistening of the boundary layer. That said the next back door cold front on Monday will be hard pressed to bring anything other than a wind shift. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR this TAF cycle with mainly cirrus late. NNE winds 8-13 knots this morning will diminish to 5-8 knots by 20Z, then light and variable AFT 00Z. Clear skies and calm wind overnight may result in patchy shallow ground fog. The isolated and thin coverage should not pose any significant VSBY constraints over local runways. Extended Outlook...VFR. Isolated showers between Thursday 18z and Friday 04z. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 6 AM Tuesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: A cold front is currently dropping south across the waters and will be well to our south by daybreak. A cold surge following this front will kick N to NE winds up into the 15 to 20 kt range, with gusts to 25 kts early in the period, and seas building 3 to 5 ft. This has necessitated Exercise Caution headlines for this morning for all but AMZ254. Conditions will improve later today as high pressure settles over the waters, with more benign conditions expected to from this afternoon through tonight. SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday night/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Benign conditions will continue across the waters through the period with winds in the 10 to 15 kt range and seas of around 2 to 3 ft. High pressure will move across the waters on Wednesday, with a weak cold front moving offshore on Thursday night. Showers may accompany frontal passage, especially Thursday afternoon and evening, but conditions are expected to remain well below advisory criteria. LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Northwesterly post cold frontal winds on Friday but the absence of any strong high building in will preclude any increase in wind speed. In fact winds will likely weaken as the day wears on. As such seas will remain very manageable for most mariners, generally capped at 2 to 3 ft. Wind then turns to west or southwest as a broad and very weak ridge axis sets up along the Gulf Coast. This could increase wind speeds by just a few knots. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...8 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.