Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261039 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 638 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAINTAINING WARM CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC TO CONTINUE ITS REIGN ACROSS THE FA. TO START THE DAY...A WEAK 5H VORT WILL RIDE UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...BASICALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ONLY LOOKING AT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AFFECTING THE FA...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND MAINLY OCCURRING THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS WILL BE THIN AT THE COAST...AND MORE OPAQUE AS YOU GO WESTWARD AND INLAND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. SPEAKING OF THE COAST...SMALL BLOB OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND ROMAIN THIS MORNING. MUCH OF IT WILL SCOUR OUT AFTER MOVING INLAND AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR. FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/MDT CU WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE FA. THE JUICE...CAPE...NEEDED TO DEVELOP/SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE JUST NOT ENOUGH DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE NE-SW UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST OF THE FA. THIS MAY ALLOW A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THOSE 5H VORTS TRACKING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION IGNITED BY THESE VORTS SPILL ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TOWARD DAYBREAK. ONCE AGAIN...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL ONLY CARRY PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS...CONTINUED WITH PERSISTENCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS. ADDED A DEGREE OR 2 FOR MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FA...AND A DEGREE TO 3 FOR TONIGHTS MINS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE SHORT TERM. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH FOLLOWING. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST EVEN AS THE CENTER DRIFTS AWAY HOWEVER...SO WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST. TEMPS BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 85-88 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE INLAND ZONES...WITH 80-83 MORE COMMON AT THE BEACHES. WHILE THESE HIGHS REPRESENT NEAR-NORMAL VALUES...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FEATURE POSITIVE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WITH RETURN FLOW LIMITING NOCTURNAL COOLING TO JUST THE MID 60S...NEAR 70 AT THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...CONVECTION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOCUSED ON THE DIURNAL MAXIMUMS. INCREASING PWAT AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...BREAKDOWN OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND SOME STRUNG OUT VORT ENERGY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NOTE THAT SPC DOESN`T EVEN HAVE A GENERAL RISK FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY IS DEFINITELY THE FAVORED DAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED CHC POP BOTH AFTNS...WANING TO SILENT/SCHC AT NIGHT. NO STRONG OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BECOME THE NORM THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK FROM THE ATLANTIC. UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOIST ADVECTION WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...AND FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PERMIT GOOD INSOLATION AND ALL FACTORS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE NORM AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE WKND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO JUNE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...AS EVEN THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HAVE TROUBLE PENETRATING THE DRY AIR ALOFT. LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN POP BUT KEEP IT ON THE VERY LOW CHC SIDE AS MOIST ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FOR THE MOST PART HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED WILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH THE HEAT/HUMIDITY COMBINATION MAKING IT START TO FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...BERMUDA HIGH WILL SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION OFFSHORE THAT MAY CREEP INTO THE MYRTLES THIS MORNING. LIKEWISE SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW. CEILINGS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INLAND BY 17Z...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THE INLAND TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...ANY SLIGHT POSITIONAL MOVEMENT OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FA...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS. THE RIDGING ACTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE HIGHS CENTER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS WELL OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS INDICATE WINDS WILL ROUGHLY RANGE FROM THE SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS...AND SSE TO S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. THE SFC PG REMAINS MODEST AT BEST...WITH 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT FOR SPEEDS THRUOUT THE PERIOD. THE RESULTANT WIND NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 SECONDS...AND COULD BE CONSIDERED A PSEUDO GROUND SWELL. A BIT OF A WIND CHOP TO OCCUR NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM THE ACTIVE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL CREATE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS PERSISTENT FROM THE SE AROUND 10 KTS...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION. WITH THIS PERSISTENT WIND AND THE LIGHT SPEEDS...THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY A SE GROUND SWELL OF 7-8 SEC CREATING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA TYPE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONLY REAL NOTICEABLE IMPACT TO THIS RETREATING HIGH WILL BE A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM SE TO E ON FRIDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SE AGAIN SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE TO THE OVERALL WAVE SPECTRUM HOWEVER...AND SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT WITH A SE 8-9 SEC GROUND SWELL FORMING THE PREDOMINANT WAVE GROUP. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43

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