Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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928 FXUS62 KILM 100545 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON THUS FAR DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MODIFIES AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON SPOTTER AND MEDIA REPORTS (AND THE KHVS AWOS OB) I HAVE INTRODUCED A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS DARLINGTON COUNTY...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE AREA STREAKING EAST ALONG THE RADAR-INDICATED LINE THAT GOES ACROSS DILLON...SOUTHERN ROBESON COUNTY...TO JUST NORTH OF WHITEVILLE NC. IT`S AN AWFULLY NARROW BAND BUT IT`S COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD FOR 15-20 MINUTES. KCAE RADAR REFLECTIVITY WAS UP TO 28 DBZ ON THE 0.5 DEG SCAN EARLIER. DISCUSSION FROM 930 PM FOLLOWS... RADAR STILL SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT ECHOES EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON TO NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN. ONE SPOT JUST NORTH OF DILLON IS SHOWING UP AS 25 DBZ WITH DUAL-POL PRODUCTS LOOKING GOOD FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND STILL-LACKLUSTER VERTICAL MOTION ALOFT MEANS THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A FLURRY EVENT WITH VIRTUALLY NO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION. 9 PM TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING WITHIN 1 OR 2 DEGREES OF FORECAST...AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM FOLLOWS... A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS RUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES AT VIRTUALLY ANY LEVEL WILL SOON BE SOME OF THE COLDEST WE`VE SEEN THIS WINTER SEASON: 850 MB AROUND -10C...700 MB ALMOST DOWN TO -20C...AND 500 MB NEAR -30C. STEEP LAPSE RATES PLUS A LITTLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES (10-20 DBZ) PARTICULARLY NEAR LUMBERTON AND FAYETTEVILLE. SOME SNOW FLURRIES COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION AND INTERIOR SE NORTH CAROLINA. ISENTROPIC MOTION THROUGH THE MOISTURE-BEARING LAYER (280K THETA) IS DOWNWARD SO THIS REALLY SHOULDN`T BE MORE THAN FLURRIES. BY MIDNIGHT THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE THINNING FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. DESPITE SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT NOCTURNAL/RADIATIONAL INVERSION FROM DEVELOPING AND LOWS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S. BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS APPEARS TO BE 2-3 DEGREES TOO COLD. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WED. THUS...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT...AT THE SURFACE... THE COLD AIR WILL BE STRONGLY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA... REINFORCING THE WINTER CHILL. THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WED WITH THE GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 40 WED AND LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 40S THU. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS THE TEENS THIS PERIOD AND EVEN DURING THE DAY IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 30S...NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS LATE THU NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR S MAY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS WHICH COULD COMPLICATE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST. A FEW SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS WED NIGHT IF THE WIND SUFFICIENTLY DIMINISHES NEAR DAYBREAK TO ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT WILL BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS WITH EVEN A FEW SINGLE NUMBERS POSSIBLE. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE GROUND IS AS WET AS IT IS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM GOES FROM COLD TO REALLY COLD AND THEN BACK TO JUST COLD. FRIDAY BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND LARGE VORTEX NORTH OF NY STATE. A SMALL POCKET OF ENERGY DISTINGUISHES ITSELF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF NW FLOW AND MANIFESTS AS A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES BUT SINCE MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR PTYPE ISSUES WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS FOR WHAT WILL END UP LIKELY AS SPRINKLES/FLURRIES, IF ANYTHING AT ALL. UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO PENETRATE THE REGION PLUNGING 850MB TEMPS TO -10 TO -15C ROUGHLY SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY AND/OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST OF THE COLD THUS APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE EVEN THOUGH SOME RECOVERY MAY BE UNDERWAY SUNDAY MIXING WILL BE THE POOREST. LATE IN THE PERIOD FINDS WEAKER UPPER TROUGHINESS AND A BIT FURTHER WEST LEADING TO US CLOUDING UP LOCALLY AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. OUR TEMPERATURE MODERATION SHOULD BE QUITE HINDERED BY ALL OF THE CLOUDINESS BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT HAS US BACK TO CLIMO BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PASSAGES OF MID- LEVEL S/W TROFS/VORTS ROTATING THRU. MUCH OF THIS IS SHEARED VORTICITY BUT NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH TO WORK WITH THE AVBL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL STRATOCU AND/OR ALTOCU CLOUD DECKS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. CONTINUED COLD/ARCTIC AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR 260-280 WIND DIRECTIONS THRUOUT...WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS EVENING...10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 24 TO 28 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15 TO 25 KT THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30+ KT DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CHANCE OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...CURRENT WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 15 KNOTS ON THE BEACHES TO 20-30 KNOTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE ACTUALLY ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN FORECAST ON THE CAPE FEAR BUOY ARRAY...AND THIS IS THE ONLY MEANINGFUL CHANGE BEING MADE TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 930 PM FOLLOWS... A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...PUSHED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. ALL MODELS SHOW WIND SPEEDS NOT REALLY DIMINISHING MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT...THEN GRADUALLY VEERING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. A WESTERLY WIND IS A SHORT FETCH ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3-6 FEET...HOWEVER ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST WHERE A WEST WIND CAN PICK UP A 50 MILE LONG FETCH SEAS ARE LIKELY 7-8 FEET NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. THESE WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VEERS A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED FOR A TIME WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT. STRONG COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND EVE...UP TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM THU. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE W AND WNW WHILE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. THIS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FLATTEN SEAS NEAR SHORE WHILE ALLOWING SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS TO REMAIN NEAR 5 TO 7 FT. WIND SPEEDS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT AND THEN TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM WNW TO NW THU EVE AND TO N OR NE THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU AND 2 FT OR LESS THU NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WIND AND SEAS BOTH PRETTY LIGHT ON FRIDAY THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND DIRECTION AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE BY. COLD AIR THEN SURGES STRONGLY ON SATURDAY AND A MODERATE NW FLOW DEVELOPS THAT MAY NECESSITATE A BRIEF SCEC. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC LOCAL FLOW WILL VEER AND ABATE. SEAS WILL ALSO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD IN SIZE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH

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