Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200923 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 523 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN IN HUMIDITY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 523 AM WEDNESDAY...AN UPDATE WAS NEEDED THIS MORNING FOR WILLIAMSBURG AND SOUTHERN FLORENCE COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THESE AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A FRAIL COLD FRONT WAS EDGING TOWARD THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. VAPOR ANIMATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING ESE IN SEDATE FASHION PLODDING TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS STREWN ACROSS THE REGION BELOW 20 THOUSAND FEET AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS POINT TO STRONG INSOLATION THROUGH THE MORNING. AS A RESULT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE INTO AFTERNOON AND IT WOULD APPEAR THIS WILL BE FAVORED NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY ALBEIT WEAK ACROSS THE SC COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR 17Z- 18Z EXPANDING NE ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR TO ILM BY 21Z WITH AID FROM SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. DIURNAL HEATING ALSO TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE AND WANING OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED INTO EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE AND AS MARINE BUOYANCY INCREASES LATE...BLOSSOMING SHOWERS MAY EXPAND TOWARD THE COAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUMS TODAY WITH SUNSHINE AND VERY LITTLE COOL ADVECTION SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND A 90 OVER THE FAR INTERIOR WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE N-NE LATER TODAY BEHIND THE FAINT FRONT SHOULD PREVENT MAXIMUMS FROM TRULY BLAZING INTO THE LOW 90S. AS WINDS VEER ONSHORE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN MILD FROM MID 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 70 COASTAL ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH AH H5 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWEEP THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT TO SEA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIR WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S NORTHERN TIER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90 TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN TO THE AREA AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG AT KILM/KLBT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TODAY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TONIGHT...COULD SEE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KILM AND KLBT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND VARIABLE WINDS AOB 5 KTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH COVERAGE OR ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO ARISE. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ANY SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CAUTION STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES BUT CHANGEABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS AND STALLS OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS MAINLY TONIGHT. SEAS ESSENTIALLY 2-3 FEET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...COMPOSED OF E WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT/MODERATE WIND CHOP FROM THE N-NE. VISIBILITIES MAY BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED BELOW 3NM IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK OF THURSDAY. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY WHICH WILL VEER TO THE SE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE ON TAP FOR THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...MJC/SGL

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