Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210423 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1223 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The weekend will remain warm and unsettled as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will usher in some cooler and much drier air through the mid week period. A gradual return of heat and humidity will begin on Thursday but we should remain rain-free. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 1230 AM Sunday...The final cluster of thunderstorms should be off the coast east of Wilmington in less than an hour. Unless showers back in the NC foothills can somehow survive all the way to the coastal plain (it would be 4-5 AM to reach the I-95 corridor) we should have a dry remainder of the overnight period. Discussion from 1030 PM follows... latest convection somewhat clustered over the ILM NC counties...east of I-95 to the coast. The activity is holding its own with occasional flare-ups as it progresses east. ie. the activity across southeast Brunswick County across lower Cape Fear to the adjacent Atl waters. Activity is moving 10 to 20 mph to the ese with lightning strikes confined with the activity moving east of Bald Head Island. Expect additional flare- ups overnight when the current inland activity moves off the mainland and across ssts in the 80s with avbl instability. Have actually tweaked overnight temps up a degree or 2 given the soupy airmass in place. previous....................................................... Convection has been slow to commence late this aftn across the ILM CWA. Latest KLTX 88D does show an increase to developing convection both across the ILM CWA and immediately upstream. The activity upstream looks to be associated with a weak mid-level s/w trof. Overall, the combined tstorm activity should last well into the evening with avbl instability, ie. CAPE between 1k to 2k, and plenty of moisture thru the atm column with PWs around 2 inches. As a result, POPs have been re- adjusted for this evening thru the overnight period. The activity is moving at a decent pace to the SE at 15 to 20 mph. Will have to monitor the back building convection which may lead to extended period of heavy rainfall possibly producing localized flooding and ponding issues which may lead to issuances of flood advisories. Lightning frequency activity has been on the low side with an occasional strikes at best. Low temps look aok at this time. May need re-adjustments due to the extent of the pcpn and the associated rain-cooled air.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday...Headline story this period is arrival of the strongest cold front in many months, and the likelihood in setting a new benchmark in 70+ minimum temperatures for 57 days in a row Monday morning. The most recent hourly temperatures Monday night show +70 degree readings through the toll of the midnight bell. Although Monday will not be cool necessarily, a notably drier feel will be offered as the airmass exchange allows dewpoints to drop deep into the 60s, erasing the mugginess. Lows Tuesday morning well in the 60s inland, but with NE flow off a warm sea, much milder near the coast. Rain chances will dwindle starting Sunday afternoon as the offshore flow brigs drier mid- level air well ahead of the surface cold front.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday...Wedge of high pressure looking more like a cool season weather map Tuesday through Thursday as the ridge piles up along the face of the Appalachians early on. By Thursday the ridge axis will be weakening and retreating a bit but it may remain discernible until early Friday. Later Friday should it break down we should see some stronger warm and moist advection but until then some slightly below climo temps especially at night. The humidity will also be quite low by August standards Tuesday and Wednesday but then creep up on Thursday. No rain through the period as it will be far too dry.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 00Z...There are some outflow boundaries that are keeping convection alive for now. Most of the showers will be over by 02Z, however the NAM has more deep moisture moving in by 06Z, so there could be a resurgence of convection through the overnight hours. Most of the deep moisture moves out of the region Sunday morning, with only isolated diurnal convection expected. Southwest flow on tap for Sunday. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Potential for MVFR/IFR due to afternoon showers and thunderstorms and overnight fog/low cigs potential. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 AM Sunday...No significant changes with this update. Discussion from 1030 PM follows... Only change applied to the previous update was to re-situate the pops and associated convection across the ILM NC waters. Expect flare-ups and some back-building to the convection as it moves off the mainland overnight. At this time, the current flare-up is occurring off the Lower Cape Fear and Bald Head Island. Looking at a dramatic increase in cloud to ocean lightning strikes during these flare-ups as well as 1 nm or less in heavy downpours. This activity is moving to the east at 10 to 15 kt. No changes to the winds or sig. seas from the previous update. previous.................................................. As of 600 PM Saturday...Main emphasis for this update will be associated with the current and progged convection. Lightning cloud to ocean strikes will remain on the low side or the occasional frequency at best. Synoptic winds becoming sw across the area waters at 10 to 15 kt once the mesoscale sea breeze circulation dissipates. A few convective outflow boundaries may produce a temporary nw to ne wind at 10-15 kt. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft with an underlying 1 foot se groundswell at 7 to 8 second periods. For the most part, the locally produced wind driven waves around 5 second periods will dominate. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Main marine story is cold front to bring a windshift to the 0-20 NM waters Sunday night, shifting to NNW then veering to NNE into Monday. No advisory appears needed but gusts to 20 KT ought to be expected much of Monday. The stronger gusts will likely reside offshore. TSTMS will be in the mix through early Sunday. WSW-SW winds most of Sunday 15 KT gusts to 20 KT by afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. Seas building to 2.5-3.5 feet. No TSTM threat by Monday, but a NNE moderate chop will develop. LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Winds not quite what one expects during August for most of the period. In fact, they`ll be about 180 degrees from the typical SW flow seen this time of year. Post- frontal high pressure will be located to the north of the area Tuesday through Thursday. Winds will be NE through the period and tend to diminish late in the period as the high weakens and begins what will be a NE movement by Friday. Before this abating trend seas may tend towards 2 to 4 ft and be of a short, choppy period. By Thursday though the 4 footers should drop out of the forecast.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

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