Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 111104 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:20 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AS THE LAST OF THE LATEST ROUND OF RAIN EXITS THE CAPE FEAR REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE THREAT OF FLOODING HAS ENDED FOR THE NIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE DEFINITION BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH P/W VALUES IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. BESIDES THE FRONT...OTHER TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND A CONTINUED SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN H/5 TROUGH SITUATED OVERHEAD. ATMOSPHERE NOT AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE QUITE THE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THAT WE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER WIND PROFILE. SO...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S INLAND. LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 70 MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL PERIOD DURING THE WKND AS A COLD FRONT WASHES OUT/LIFTS BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY THANKS TO INCREASING RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PRETTY TYPICAL DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES...SUBSIDENCE BENEATH INCREASING THICKNESSES AND DRYING W/NW FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND EXPECT FEWER TSTMS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY. TEMPS DURING THE WKND WILL BE AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SATURDAY...AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...A VERY ATYPICAL PATTERN SET TO DEVELOP MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH...MORE TYPICAL OF FALL/WINTER THAN MID-SUMMER...DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. GUIDANCE IS...AND HAS BEEN...IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. WHILE INITIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SOUTHERN RIDGING...THIS TROUGH WILL BARREL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL AREA. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE. THIS SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR INCREASED POP TUE/WED...BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...POCKETS OF IFR AROUND LBT...WITH MVFR AROUND FLO. MOST OF THAT WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z...14Z AT THE LATEST. MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. ATMOSPHERE PRETTY WORKED OVER...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY 17Z OR SO TO FIRE THINGS UP AGAIN. BEST CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW A DRY PUNCH MOVING IN...BUT IT WILL NOT BE HERE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...VARIABLE THIS MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SHRA/TSRA ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:20 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: EXPECT LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE NW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THEIR PRESENT 2 OR 3 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAVERING IN THE VICINITY WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF SATURDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE REGAINS ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY...WITH SPEEDS RISING TO 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL BE ONLY 1-2 FT ON THE LIGHT WINDS...RISING TO 2-3 FT SUNDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE AND A SE GROUND SWELL DEVELOPS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE HIGH WILL DRIVE SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL RISE FROM 10-15 KTS TO AS MUCH AS 20-25 KTS LATE TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE STEADILY INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS AS WELL...WITH 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE EXTENDED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/JDW

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