Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281722 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1222 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... As high pressure moves offshore today, a warming trend will begin. Gusty south winds and temperatures well into the 70s can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop through mid week, peaking Wednesday night and early Thursday as a cold front crosses the coast. Dry and seasonably cool weather will prevail late week into this upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1230 PM Monday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: Primary headliner is transition to an unfolding and strong warm air advection pattern starting today as surface high pressure edges offshore of Cape Hatteras. A weak coastal trough or warm front will move onshore late this afternoon, but only limited moisture depth appears available for showers through the daylight hours over land. Strengthening convergence offshore late tonight and pre-frontal inland showers in the developing warm sector will bring rain chances by daybreak Tuesday across SE NC/NE SC. Am considering a late in the game adjustment on maximums today, encroaching cloud cover will keep cool temperatures from warming quickly today so may opt for cooler side of guidance envelope with low and middle 60s even though warm advection is gearing up. Minimums will be an eye- popping 25 degrees milder early Tuesday compared to this morning with middle 50s inland and around 60 at the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Monday...Main story this period focuses on a blustery and mild weather pattern with instability and moisture increasing to a crescendo late Wednesday as a cold front crosses the coast. A large low pressure system will pinwheel slowly across the Great Lakes providing 2 episodes of rain chances locally Tue/Wed. The stout warm air advection pattern will support a slight chance of a TSTM both days. Isolated to scattered POP chances will approach a likely category Wednesday night just ahead of the progressing cold front. A QPF consensus shows 0.25-0.50 inches of rain Tuesday and Wednesday overall, and for now the SPC keeps our area in a `general thunder` category versus a severe potential with hazard risk. Temperatures 10- 15 degrees above normal this period with highs in the 70s Tue/Wed, with a few 80s in the mix Wednesday afternoon between towering cumulus breaks. A relatively strong resultant sea breeze air mass should impinge the coastal interior and Cape Fear region both days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM Monday...Thursday morning will see the cold front push off the coast and offshore by midday. Residual showers and/or isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front, will also come to an end during the morning. With mid and upper flow veering to the wsw, skies should clear out leaving enough low level moisture behind to support diurnally driven cu/sc. The CAA surge behind the cold front will be delayed til Thu evening when a secondary sfc cold front or sfc trof drops south across the FA. 850mb temps running 10-13 degrees C Thu morning prior to the CFP, will drop to 8 to 12 degrees C by sunset Thu and after the secondary CFP Thu evening, 850mb temps drop to 3 to 6 degrees C by sunrise Fri. Split flow aloft occurs Fri thru this upcoming weekend with flow remaining from the WSW across the FA and flow north of the Carolinas becoming WNW. For Fri thru Sat, sfc high pressure will be affect the FA, with it`s center moving overhead late Sat. Progged temps during this time frame will run nearly normal. It will feel much cooler than what it really is due to temperatures leading up to this time frame will be running well above normal. By and during Sunday, the sfc high moves offshore from the Carolinas. A weak s/w trof in the WSW flow aloft, and in the southern stream of westerlies will affect the area during Sun. Models at this time range indicate overrunning type pcpn, ie. light rain, may breakout across the area given moisture from the Gulf and even from the Pacific when you look back on the origins of this mid and upper moisture. Latest models are a little further north with this pcpn compared to last nights model runs. For now will keep a low pop for pcpn chances until models indicate a better continuity with 1 another as well as from model run to run. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR, except after 09Z there is a low probability of MVFR cigs at KFLO/KLBT. The terminals are currently under the influence of high pressure surface and aloft. This will shift off to the E today as return flow quickly establishes itself ahead of an approaching frontal system. E- SE winds this morning will gradually increase in speed today. Broken high clouds expected this morning as low and mid-levels are currently dry. However, surface observations indicate clouds 5k just to the south of the southern terminals. Sct low clouds should affect all terminals by afternoon with possibly VFR low-level cigs at times as the day progresses mainly southern terminals. MOS guidance suggests sub-VFR cigs after 09Z KFLO/KLBT. Based on forecast soundings will indicate VFR level cigs 3k in TAFS. Of greater concern will be LLWS as a strong low-level jet develops. Extended outlook...Possible MVFR from isolated/scattered showers Tuesday with IFR clouds early Wednesday. Also, potential for MVFR/IFR in showers/isolated thunderstorms late Wednesday thru Thursday morning. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 PM Monday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: One more nice day before marine conditions worsen tonight and early Tuesday, as high pressure moves off Cape Hatteras, and a strong low pressure system approaches the East Coast. An advisory will be needed late tonight as seas build to 6 feet outer portion due to a strengthening SSE-SE fetch offshore pointed this way. While winds near shore may stay below advisory levels, the sea heights offshore will be rough and increasingly pitchy, 4-6 feet into early Tuesday area-wide on the 0-20 NM waters. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Monday...Dangerous conditions due to 20-30 KT S-SW winds and 4-7 foot seas every 6-7 seconds both Tue/Wed. Isolated TSTMS will be in the mix Tue/Wed. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected all of this period. Near shore winds 15-25 KT, but the stronger winds offshore will push large waves all the way to the near shore. The ICW likewise may expect 25 KT gusts both Tue/Wed. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As OF 330 AM Monday...SCA conditions will occur thru much of Thu and possibly into early Fri. At the start of this period, Thu morning, a strong cold front will push across the area waters and offshore. The 20 to 30 kt S to SSW winds ahead of the cold front will become westerly at slightly reduced speeds after the CFP. The sfc pg will slightly and temporarily loosen during Thu aftn. A sfc trof of low pressure or could call it a secondary CFP, will occur Thu evening as reflected by the sfc pressure pattern and temps aloft , ie. at 850mb, decreasing. Winds will further veer to the NW and to a more northerly direction by and during Fri. The CAA surge combined with a slight tightening of the sfc pg, will yield wind speeds at SCEC to possibly SCA levels. Significant seas will peak Thu morning in the 5 to 8 ft range but slowly drop to 4 to 6 or 7 ft Thu evening and further subside to 3 to 5 ft during Fri. The longevity and decent fetch associated with the S to SSW flow prior to the 1st CFP will help keep seas elevated across the local waters even with winds becoming offshore in direction. Look for seas to finally begin to really drop off fri night per latest Wavewatch3 model run.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...MRR MARINE...DCH/MJC

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