Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 150902 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 354 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through Monday night. A warming trend will take place Tuesday and Wednesday in southerly winds ahead of the next cold front. Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind this front, but low pressure moving up from the Gulf coast may produce some unsettled weather through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday...Uninteresting, flat, non-descript surface pressure pattern will predominate as a flimsy high pressure cell attempts to assert a push southward into our geo-domain this afternoon and tonight. As a result, light wind this period. Looking at satellite data this morning, reveals periods of sunshine will beam down on NE SC and SE NC, that is, once mist-pockets and fog- banks are burned by the sun, gradually vaporizing into the gaseous portion of the water cycle. Temperature-wise, insolation should boost max-T values in the middle 60s to lower 70s from NE to SW respectively, the mildest readings over the deep interior of NE SC with cooler air wedging SSW-ward from LBT to EYF to Burgaw. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday...The main headline this period is that there really is no significant headline. The corrosion of a feeble high pressure wedge Monday gets eaten away by very early Tuesday as warm air advection fans eastward. Fragile over-running could trip off sketchy light rain monday night and early Tuesday, but here we have a QPF forecast one cannot sink their teeth into. Great news if you like mild January days, Tuesday into the lower 70s for much of the region as SW winds broadcasts warm air across NE SC and SE NC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Shortwave riding around a broad trough over the Upper Great Lakes will push a cold front into the Carolinas on Wed. This front should move through Wed aftn accompanied by clouds and a chance of a shower. A warmer and moister southerly flow ahead of the front will be replaced with a drier and relatively cooler N-NW flow Wed night into early Thurs as weak high pressure builds in behind front. Both models show the front clearing the area but the ECMWF brings this front back north as a warm front by late Thurs as low pressure moves northward from the western Gulf up the Mississippi. The GFS is slower pushing the front south and therefore keeps pcp into Wed night and then shows a much weaker low moving north on Fri. With all of this uncertainty and inconsistency with timing and features, it makes for a tough long range forecast. Until these features get resolved, will keep more unsettled weather in the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 06Z...Patchy but dense fog appears poised to plague all terminals as night-time 11-3.9 micron imagery shows partially clear skies across SE NC and NE SC. As a result, areas of IFR due to CIGS/VSBY BTWN 8Z-14Z can be expected. After daybreak, lingering low CIGS will gradually disperse, with MVFR to VFR conditions. WNW winds Sunday morning 4-8 KTS becoming NE in the afternoon as a high pressure wedge is reinforced. Another round of IFR/MVFR due to CIGS/VSBY may be on tap late Sunday night. Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday will be accompanied by showers and MVFR. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday...Agreeable boating conditions today, will get a little bumpy late afternoon to early evening, as high pressure noses southward over the 0-20 NM waters. Gusts to 20 KT tonight expected putting seas in a 3-4 foot range, but advisory flags not expected. The bulk of wave energy for today remains linked with an E swell train whose intervals are running at 11-12 seconds. Thus a lazy undulation with light chop, not bad. No TSTMS this period but patchy fog from Winyah Bay to Murrells Inlet early this morning will burn out quickly. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday...A bit rugged and uneven in the early going as sturdy NE winds bring a bluster, gusting to 20 KT from NE Monday morning. After this however it`s smooth sailing with no flags or marine hazards in the cards. High pressure over land will slip offshore, turning winds from the S-SW during the day Tuesday and sustained into Tuesday night. No TSTMS this period but patches of light rain may fall Monday night and very early Tuesday. Wind-waves will be dominant Monday, then handed over to longer period swell Monday night and Tuesday. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Expect SW flow possibly reaching up to 15 kts or so ahead of cold front on Wed. This front will be slower to move through and may get stretched from west to east and possibly stall before dropping south Wed night into Thurs. Seas may reach up to 3 to 5 ft, especially in the outer waters on Wed. The off shore component to the flow will keep highest seas off shore through much of Wed especially as the front draws near and winds veer to a more westerly direction. Expect a deeper N to NW flow behind it but on the weak side. Therefore expect seas to lower through Thurs down less than 3 ft by Fri morning. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MJC

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