Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 252347 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 647 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AWAY FROM THE BEACHES IT HAS BEEN AN OUTSTANDING DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. THE BEACHES THEMSELVES HAVE A VERY CHILLY SEABREEZE BLOWING ONSHORE WITH AIR TEMPERATURES STUCK NEAR 50. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ILLINOIS. THIS LOW WON`T REACH THE AREA UNTIL TOMORROW...BUT THE FIRST WAVE OF CLOUDS AND DYNAMICALLY-SUPPORTED LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC MODEL FIELDS SHOW WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING ALONG THE 290K-295K THETA SURFACES BY 12Z (7 AM) MONDAY MORNING...BUT MOISTURE IS STILL VERTICALLY THIN WITH MULTIPLE DRY LAYERS INTERFERING WITH PRECIP GENERATION. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND BY 12Z THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD APPROACH THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGH THE 900-500 MB LAYER. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY INLAND. I WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP LIKE A ROCK THIS EVENING AND MAY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FORECAST LOWS BY 10 PM. INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING AT THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INDUCE ENOUGH TURBULENCE TO PREVENT THE RADIATIONAL INVERSION FROM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER. CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT MAY EVEN CAUSE A RISING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM 35-40 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA...TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CONTROL OF SLOW MOVING 5H TROUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MON AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TUE AS TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST. COLD POOL ALOFT MON WILL GENERATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WHILE POSSIBLE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL HAIL FROM ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT IN GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH TEMPS ALOFT WARMING OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POP GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS HIGHS MON WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO...HELPED BY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MON EVENING BUT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF EXITING 5H TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES BRINGS AN END TO ANY ACTIVITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. 850 TEMPS DROP 5 TO 7 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT...ENDING UP AROUND -5C BY DAYBREAK TUE. ONLY STRONG MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO. TUE AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD INCREASE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER THAN MON AND THE MID LEVELS ARE DRIER. THEREFORE WHILE CLOUDS MAY INCREASE DO NOT SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS WED INTO THURS. THE DEEP COLD NW FLOW ON WED WILL WEAKEN AS RIDGE ALIGNS UP THE EAST COAST AND CENTER OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY WED NIGHT. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THURS WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING ABOUT 25 DEM. OVERALL WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR BY THURS WITH 850 TEMPS UP FROM NEAR -8C WED MORNING UP TO 5C BY THURS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF SHORE ON THURS WITH MORE OF A WARMER W-SW FLOW SETTING UP. FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE THOUGH...AND THE WARMER RETURN FLOW THURS AFTN WILL BE BRIEF AS NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS BY FRI MORNING. TEMPS THURS SHOULD SPRING BACK UP TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BUT WILL BE KNOCKED BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRI. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN SW RETURN FLOW ON THURS INTO EARLY FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME IN WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH LATE THURS BUT BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COME INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT WILL ADD LOW END POPS MAINLY VERY EARLY FRI MORNING. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL COME ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. DEEP NW-N FLOW ON FRI WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP MAY DEVELOP SAT AFTN AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FORM THE NORTH. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FOCUSES POPS MORE ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS BRING. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL ON WED REACHING NEAR 50 MOST PLACES. WITH HIGH OVERHEAD WED NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES. TEMPS FRI WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH SUNSHINE BACK IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT CLEAR AND COOL WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVE. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING CLOUDS LATE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A QUICKLY PROPAGATING SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST MARGINAL MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE INLAND SITES...AM EXPECTING INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO KEEP DEVELOPMENT CHANCES LOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. ON MONDAY...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL VEER...BECOMING WESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS BY MORNING AND THEN INCREASING EVEN MORE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH ATTM. LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN AS WELL...AND COULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA/MVFR CIGS MONDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WILL MAKE A BEE-LINE FOR NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW. UNTIL THEN...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING LOW WILL CAUSE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST EVIDENT AWAY FROM SHORE WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS BETTER DEVELOPED. WINDS 15-20 MILES OUT SHOULD INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KNOTS...WHILE NEARSHORE IN THE COOLER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO 10 KT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT MAY BUILD TOWARD 4 FT 15-20 MILES FROM SHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS LATE. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MON AND TUE WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT MON WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. PINCHED GRADIENT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 20 KT MON NIGHT BUT OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. REDUCTION IN OFFSHORE FLOW TUE IS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD SURGE ARRIVES TUE NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE CLOSER ON WED REACHING OVER THE WATERS BY WED NIGHT. THEREFORE NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY WED WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT EARLY WED WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THURS MORNING DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WED EVE WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SW AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THURS EVE. THESE INCREASING SW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SEAS WILL REACH UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THURS NIGHT INTO FRI BUT AS WINDS BECOME MORE OFF SHORE AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...GREATEST SEAS WILL GET DISPLACED FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. NW-N WINDS ON FRI WILL DIMINISH AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE REACHES INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE N-NE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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