Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201742 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 141 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY TRACKING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST...WILL CREATE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND ITS ALIGNMENT IS SUCH THAT LONG SE FETCH IS FOCUSING DIRECTLY INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUALLY ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN TODAY...WITH PWATS RISING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY ANALYZED JUST ALONG THE COAST...WILL SORT OF MERGE WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. ALOFT...BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE MS VLY AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF. WHILE THIS WILL BRING SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE COAST...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALOFT...WHICH WILL FURTHER SERVE AS CONVECTIVE FUEL BENEATH ANY WEAK IMPULSES THAT TRAVERSE OVERHEAD TODAY. ALREADY THE KLTX DOPPLER IS SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. THE FIRST...ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST...IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND REMNANT BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND. THE SECOND IS BENEATH THE LOWER HEIGHTS WELL INLAND...AND BENEATH WHERE BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ALOFT. WITH MOST ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN...AND THE FORCING MECHANISMS ALREADY DESCRIBED...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY...AND WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY IN THE WEST...HIGH CHANCE EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THIS AFTN...AND THUS ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS OR STORM TRAINING DEVELOPS. CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 2000 J/KG ARE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE PARCELS INTO THE CHARGE-SEPARATION ZONE OF -10C TO -30C TO CAUSE LIGHTNING...BUT LONG-SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND SOME DRIER AIR WITHIN THIS LAYER SUGGEST SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX TYPE...AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD TRW-. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP SW OF THE AREA AND LIFT NORTH INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHC POP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS...TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S THANKS TO HIGH DEW POINTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED FROM FALLING TOO FAR DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUED WAA...FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF FORECAST AREA WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOWING THIS TROUGH CUTTING OFF WITH LOW RETROGRADING WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO MID WEEK. OVERALL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE WETTER OF THE TWO DAYS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND DEVELOPING LOW OVER GA/SC. GFS SHOWS BULLSEYE OF UP TO 2.3 INCHES OF PCP WATER OVER NORTHEAST SC MON AFTN. BY TUES IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM LOCAL AREA BUT THIS MAY PULL MOISTURE FROM LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH TO OUR EAST BACK TOWARD THE COAST WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PCP AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND. MAY GET A BREAK WITH BRIEF RIDGING LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD BEING TOO QUIET. MAY END UP BEING A LOT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP BUT DO EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IN WEAK STEERING FLOW...ESPECIALLY MON AFTN. GREATER CHC OF PCP ON MONDAY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE TUES SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SHOULD BE LESS PCP AROUND TO HELP TEMPS RISE CLOSER TO 90 MOST PLACES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AS BERMUDA RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON WED. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK AS DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS INTO FRI PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT INCREASING S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETTER SHEER AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE STRONGER STORMS LATE THURS INTO FRI AS FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND FRONT LATE FRI BUT FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR BY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SFC HIGH SHIFTS RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS WILL COME THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AND A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS OVER THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE 90S WED AND THURS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE THURS AND FRI WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS. SHOULD SEE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS FRI AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAPE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MOST SPOTS WILL EXPERIENCE PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN CONVECTION. LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AFTER 08Z...BEST CHANCE INLAND...AND ALTHOUGH A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP LATE...AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY WITH POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. VFR WILL BE PREDOMINANT...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY...10 KTS OR LESS...WITH A SE DIRECTION PREDOMINANT AROUND A DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS...ANY WIND WAVE ENERGY WILL BE SMALL TO NONE (AND THIS IS ECHOED CLEARLY ON WAVE SPECTRAL PLOTS THIS MORNING)...BUT A SE SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH WILL BE 2-3 FT TODAY. AN 8-9 SEC SWELL WILL FORM THE SEAS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AND WILL BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE GROUP EXCEPT IN THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS WHERE SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE WILL OCCUR. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SHORE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REACHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH WHILE A LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAINS OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KTS OR SO BY WED EVENING IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS SEAS POSSIBLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT BY THU NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS..RGZ NEAR TERM...WEISS SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL

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