Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251447 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1047 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN STALL...OSCILLATING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE FRONT MAY REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING SE...CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM ABOUT SAINT PAULS...TO BENNETTSVILLE...TO HARTSVILLE. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHT...MAKING THE WIND SHIFT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...A CLEAR DEMARCATION EXISTS IN THE LOW STRATUS LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH MARK THE COLD FRONT CLEARLY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE THROUGH THE AFTN...AND THEN STALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR COLUMBIA SC WILL DRIFT NE...WHILE 300MB JETTING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE AREA...AIDING IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALL OF THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY...LIKELY FILLING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS AFTN AND EVE WHERE LIKELY POP IS IN PLACE. THE HIGH-RES ARW SEEMS TO BE MODELING THE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST AND IS LEANED UPON FOR TODAYS FORECAST...AND THIS IMPLIES TOO THAT ONCE HEATING BEGINS TO WANE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT AT LEAST SCHC POP WILL REMAIN WARRANTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S...WITH A FEW MID 80S WHERE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE MORE PERSISTENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 60S WELL INLAND...LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AS HYBRID COLD FRONT/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HANGS UP SOMEWHERE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO LIKE TUESDAY THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL BOTH INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ALSO YIELD A SMALL BUT NON ZERO THREAT FOR GUSTY/STRONG WINDS IN DEEPER CELLS. ACTUAL SEVERE GUSTS HOWEVER WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MATERIALIZE. AS MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS TO OUR WEST THURSDAY ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED STATE THIS FRONT MAY SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT EVEN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT RETROGRADES INTO GEORGIA. IN FACT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PLAYING `CATCH UP` WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THIS ENTIRE SETUP PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST. TAKING A LOOK AT 200MB SHOWS THAT THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY AT ALL AS THERE IS MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN/UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE WAVE THAN THE EASTERN/DOWNSTREAM. LATE THURSDAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY INFILTRATE OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE SINKING OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IN NO HURRY AT ALL. AS SUCH RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AT LEAST ALONG COASTAL AREAS. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEP A SENSE OF WEAKENING TROUGHINESS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THAT WILL CHANNEL MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS. WHAT MAY END UP DICTATING HOW UNSETTLED THE WEATHER REMAINS APPEARS TO HINGE UPON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT) REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BY DAY OR PERHAPS LOWER SHOULD AMPLE CLOUD COVER REMAIN. FOR THE SAME REASONS NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...THROUGH 15Z MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR 13-14Z...OTHERWISE VFR AT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY EAST OF KCRE/KMYR TO NEAR KILM. OTHER MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING NW OF KFLO TO W OF KLBT. HI RES PROGS SUGGEST CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH A COLD FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE TERMINALS AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. BEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW-W BECOMING SE-S AROUND 10 MPH. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS DIFFUSE...SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ONLY 5-10 KTS AT MOST TODAY...BUT POSSIBLY UP TO 15 KTS NEAR-SHORE WITHIN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTN/EVE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORM TONIGHT AND VEER AROUND TOT HE SW AT 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BE FORMED THROUGH A VARIETY OF WAVE GROUPS...BUT THE TWO DISTINCT SE SWELLS...ONE AT AROUND 12 SEC...AND THE OTHER AROUND 9 SEC...WILL CONTRIBUTE MOST SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE 2- 3 FT SEAS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A NEARLY STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE COAST FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, HELD INLAND BY LAGGING ENERGY ALOFT AS WELL AS THE SEA BREEZE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE LOW PRESSURES ALONG ITS LENGTH WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS QUITE LIGHT BY EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE BERMUDA HIGH ISOBARS FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT ABOUT 10KT. DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH DANNY SWELL TO YIELD A GENERAL 2 TO 3 FT WAVE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADES INTO GEORGIA ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE EFFECT LOCALLY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST RELATED TO THE YET TO BE DETERMINED POSITION OF THE FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM. MODELS HAVE BEEN WANTING TO SHOVE IT OFFSHORE BUT THE LAGGING ENERGY/TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST ARGUES THAT THERE MAY BE LITTLE IMPETUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR. WIND AND SEAS WILL BOTH BE PRETTY LIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS REALLY THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO PAINT A WEAK ONSHORE WIND WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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