Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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589 FXUS62 KILM 151616 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1116 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure to our north will bring near seasonable temperatures and dry conditions through the week. A dry cold front will pass early Thursday with a brief cool down to follow. A stronger cold front is expected to cross the coast this weekend with best chance of rain Saturday night into early Sunday. Very cool and dry weather will follow into early next week with another chance for freezing temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Wednesday...High pressure extending down from the north was maintaining a gusty northerly flow this morning, especially close to the coast. As the high shifts east and weakens through today winds will lighten and become more variable into tonight as a shortwave pushes the tail end of cold front toward the Carolinas from the NW. Under bright sunshine today, temps will reach reach within a few degrees of 60 most places. The low to mid level flow will back around to W-NW by this evening as shortwave moves from the Great Lakes across New England. Expect a slight uptick in mainly mid level clouds as shortwave moves through overnight tonight but without much moisture return in the low levels, the front will mainly go through unnoticed with just a reinforcement of dry high pressure into Thurs. Moisture profiles and sounding data main layer of increased from 7k-12k ft. Temps tonight will be a few degrees above last night as clouds helps prevent ideal radiational cooling. The increased westerly downslope component to the flow and plenty of sunshine on Thurs will produce temps in the mid 60s. The deeper cooler northerly flow will come later on Thursday as H5 trough lifts north and Canadian high pressure builds into the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 AM Wednesday...Chief weather theme this period `Dry with Seasonable Temperatures`, as a short-wave swoops across the Great Lakes and New England, leaving in its pull, a deep swath of dry mid level air to overspread the Mid-Atlc and Carolinas. In wake of this upper feature, Canadian surface high pressure will build SE Thursday, becoming centered over NE SC and SE NC late Friday. Refreshment of high pressure into the region will bring NE breezes at the coast Thursday night and early Friday, easing Friday afternoon as the high center edges near. Lows and highs very near climate values this period, minimums dipping in low 40s in the mornings, rising into the 60s in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Saturday, a return flow will develop with some moisture return ahead of an approaching cold front. Should squeeze out a mainly dry day on Sat with increasing clouds as winds above the surface will be predominantly westerly downslope flow. Temps should reach around 70 or so. The latest model runs have pushed back the front a bit with best chc of pcp Sat night into early Sun. GFS shows pcp water down near a quarter of an inch on Fri, increasing up near 1.4 inches Sat eve just ahead of cold front. The deeper, drier and cooler air will lag slightly behind as high amplitude upper trough makes its way through by late Sun. At this time a very deep NW flow will advect plenty of cold and dry air into the Carolinas with clearing skies through the day on Sunday. The GFS shows 850 temps up to 11c ahead of the front and plummeting down to -7c Sun night. The EC is a trending cooler but remains the warmer of the guidance. Overall expect a chilly air mass to settle over the area early next week with arctic air producing possible freezing temps both early Mon and early Tues morning. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 12Z...High pressure will once again dominate the region through the forecast period. Northerly winds, 10 kts or less, will occur through the afternoon hours, with a radiation inversion setting up by evening. Time height shows dry air at all levels, with scattered to clear skies expected. Extended Outlook...VFR with a chance of showers with possible MVFR/SHRA Saturday into Sunday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Wednesday...High pressure extending down into the waters from the north will maintain a northerly flow through today. The gradient has remained tighter as a weak trough extends up to the east of the waters. As the high shifts off the New England coast through tonight,it will weaken over the waters as a weak and dry cold front approaches from the NW heading into Thurs. Overall expect winds to lighten through today before backing to the NW by this evening. Seas 4 to 5 ft in gusty northerly flow this morning will subside to 2 to 4 ft as winds diminish to 15 kts and back becoming more off shore later today into tonight. Conditions will fall just below precautionary headlines by early this afternoon. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 AM Wednesday...In wake of a strong cold front north of the waters, N winds will increase late Thursday and persist through Friday morning, which may require `Exercise Caution` headlines, for 15-20 KT and gusty N-NNE winds, and seas up to 5 feet offshore. MArine conditions however will begin to improve Friday afternoon as the surface high center approaches, and winds ease. No TSTMS this period as the atmosphere remains dry. The seas will be dominated by short period N-NE waves late Thursday through Friday morning. Choppiness will begin to ease Friday afternoon and evening in tandem with winds. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...As high pressure shifts overhead and offshore early Saturday, both winds and seas will drop of, with seas down less than 3 ft. By Saturday, an increasing SW return flow sets up as high shifts farther off shore and cold front approaches. This enhanced gradient flow may reach up near SCA thresholds but the highest seas will be kept farther off shore as winds veer to a more westerly direction as front nears the waters by late Sat into Sat night. Expect as FROPA early Sunday with a dip in winds and seas before deeper cooler air lags behind a bit. By late Sunday, a decent surge from the NW should kick seas up once again as we tap into some arctic air as high amplitude trough shifts east. For now, it looks like greatest seas through the period will come Sat night with another run at SCA conditions Sun night as chilly air mass advects over the local waters.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III

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