Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271401 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1000 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BOTH PASS OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. EXCEPT FOR A SMUDGE OF LOW STRATUS DISSIPATING QUICKLY JUST INLAND FROM MYRTLE BEACH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY CLEAR WITH A BONE-DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MHX AND CHS SHOWED THE LOW LEVELS WERE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND ALSO WARMER THAN THE 06Z MODELS SHOWED. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD INCORPORATED THESE CHANGES FROM GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS MID-MORNING UPDATE. A WEAK SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AS INLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S BUT OFFSHORE AIR TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MARINE MOS GUIDANCE FOR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH (JMPN7) AND MYRTLE BEACH (MROS1) SHOWS WIND SPEEDS REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SEABREEZE WILL BE TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER AT/NEAR THE BEACHES COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... LOCATION TODAY OCT 27 TUE OCT 28 WED OCT 29 WILMINGTON 85/2010 87/1984 82/1984* FLORENCE 87/2010 86/1991* 84/1974 N. MYRTLE BEACH 82/2010 83/1991 83/1991 * INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING AN ABRUPT END TO THIS WARMTH. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IMPULSE WILL LEAD THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH BY THURSDAY...AND THE GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL DISPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION ALOFT PUSHES A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE COAST...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL CREATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TUESDAY THE WARMER DAY THANKS TO LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY GREATER THICKNESSES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S...AND MAY APPROACH RECORDS INLAND...WHILE TEMPS AT THE COAST WILL BE A BIT LOWER THANKS TO THE COOL OCEAN TEMPS. WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL...AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES COMING AS A WINTER-LIKE AIR MASS FLOODS INTO THE CAROLINAS. COLD FRONT WILL BE BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BEFORE STALLING DURING THURSDAY. THE FRONT STALLS AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE AND SOME PVA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT FESTIVITIES. THEREAFTER...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 60 AND MINS FALLING BELOW 40 IN COLDER SPOTS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS MORNING THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALLOWING LIGHT/VRBL/LGT NE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRBL THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS. ALONG WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BR TO DEVELOP. ATTM ONLY TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED AT KCRE/KMYR WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR AT KFLO. AT FOG PRONE KCRE TEMPO IFR COULD ALSO OCCUR BUT NOT INDICATED IN TAF ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF COASTAL MVFR/INLAND IFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUES/WED/THURS MORNINGS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED EVENING THROUGH THURS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NC WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY IN A COMBINATION OF THE SHIFTING SYNOPTIC GRADIENT AROUND THE HIGH AND ALSO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEABREEZE. INLAND TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHEN CONTRASTED WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAK SEABREEZE WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS AT THE AREA BUOYS ARE 1-2 FEET...MAINLY IN 9 TO 11 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PRE-FRONTAL REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DRIVES S/SW WINDS MOST OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN...DRIVING WIND SPEEDS FROM AROUND 10 KTS TUESDAY...TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY WHEN A GUSTY SEA BREEZE WILL BACK WINDS A BIT TO THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 1-2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL BECOME RATHER CHOPPY TUESDAY AFTN WITHIN THE SEA BREEZE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL VEER FROM W/NW TO NE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE NW AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR SINKS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT THURSDAY MORNING WILL RISE TO 2-4 FT ON FRIDAY THANKS TO THE HIGHER WINDS...BUT THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP AMPLITUDES RELATIVELY LOWERED...BUT SHORT PERIODS WILL STILL CREATE STEEP FACES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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