Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 222321 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 621 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW DURING SUNDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST LATE MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE FIRST UPDATE FOR THE EVENING. TEMPTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO STORM SYSTEM POUR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER 1800 UTC MAV NUMBERS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND WILL REEVALUATE AT THE 930 UPDATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...DYNAMIC FORECAST PERIOD AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM POSES A VARIETY OF CHALLENGES RANGING FROM A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE COAST...TO A POSSIBLE LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES INLAND TO THE BEACHES GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT...AND THE AMOUNT/DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UVVS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL POPS LATER IN THE DAY AND THE EVENING. THE COASTAL FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR AN IMPRESSIVE 1.5 INCHES. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK RETAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE NON-EXISTENT BUT ENOUGH WIND SHEAR WORTHY OF KEEPING AN EYE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MIGRATES BY. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THEN THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1 INCH INLAND TO 2 INCHES AT THE COAST. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS FARTHER TO THE N-NE AND DOWN-SLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS THE LOW MOVES BY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY AS THE DRYING OCCURS. LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE COLUMN BRINGS A DRY WESTERLY WIND. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. AS THIS MOISTURE-DEPRIVED CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SUCCESSIVELY COLDER PUSHES OF AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORTUNATELY WE DO NOT GET INTO ARCTIC AIR BUT TEMPS BELOW CLIMO NONETHELESS. PERHAPS NOTEWORTHY ARE THE MONDAY DAY AND THE TUESDAY NIGHT COOL SURGE WHICH WILL BOTH BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. THE FORMER WRINGS OUT SOME MINOR QPF OVER CAPE FEAR AND POINTS NORTH. USUALLY ITS PREFERABLE TO HAVE SUCH VORT CENTERS CUTTING TO YOUR SOUTH FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. THE CHILLY SURFACE HIGH MAY INCH JUST ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR SLIGHT MODERATION ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR ON FRI AS GULF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 KT BY DAYBREAK. THE COLUMN MOISTENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH -RA AND SCT/BKN MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AROUND MIDDAY AT KILM/KLBT. AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS FL/GA IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT RA/+RA TO LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS...RIGHT AROUND THE 1000 FT THRESHOLD. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO KILM/KCRE/KMYR IF IT PUSHES ONSHORE. BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS SAT MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY SAT EVENING. VFR ON SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MON WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON TUE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WITH THE 630 PM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL WATERS. PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING FRIDAY AND ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. OPTED TO RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A RESULT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE THE WIND...AND DURING FRIDAY THE FETCH WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...REGARDLESS SEAS STILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 9 FT NEAR THE OUTER CAPE FEAR WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL EXIST AS WELL AS THE LOW MOVES BY THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AND VERY ROUGH SEA STATE NEAR ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BACK IN DIRECTION ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM ITSELF PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY BUT THE COOL SURGE IT BRINGS COULD RAISE WINDS CLOSE TO SCEC HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. MEANWHILE THE CONTINUATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS THE LARGEST SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM ZONES. ADDITIONAL VEERING ON TUESDAY AS STEP-WISE COOL AIR PUSHES ENSUE BUT OVERALL WINDS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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