Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
730 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Wednesday.
A cold front will cross the area Thursday night into early Friday
morning. Above normal temperatures are expected into next weekend
before a second cold front moves across the area on Monday.


As of 6 AM Tuesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

A cold front is currently dropping south across the forecast area
and will be well to our south by daybreak. A cool and dry airmass
will follow, dominating the near term as Canadian high pressure
settles over the area. Weather will remain dry with little to no
cloud cover. Moderate CAA following FROPA means temperatures will
run below normal for today and tonight, with highs in the upper
60s and lows in the mid to upper 40s.


As of 3 AM Tuesday...The southern extension of a Canadian high
pressure system will slowly transit across the eastern Carolinas on
Wednesday, with consequent dry weather and below-normal temperatures
continuing through at least Wednesday afternoon. For Wednesday night
temperatures will raise back near normal as low-level flow becomes
easterly with the ridge axis passing offshore. A weak low pressure
system will move NE into New England on Thursday, dragging a cold
front across the area on Thursday night. Unlike earlier fronts, this
one will have a modest amount of moisture accompanying it, so
increased cloud cover is likely along with isolated to widely
scattered showers. As moisture is shallow and best upper support
will be passing well to the north do not expect this to be much of a
rain-maker, with only minimal QPF. CAA following FROPA will also be
minimal, so do not expect any further cool-down with this system.


As of 3 AM Tuesday... Cold front comes through dry around the start
of the period. This boundary will really only represent a wind shift
locally as there is no appreciable cold advection in its wake. In
fact the weekend will show a warming trend each day as zonal mid
level flow and weak surface return flow persist. The latter will be
weak so there will be little to no moistening of the boundary layer.
That said the next back door cold front on Monday will be hard
pressed to bring anything other than a wind shift.


As of 12Z...VFR this TAF cycle with mainly cirrus late. NNE winds
8-13 knots this morning will diminish to 5-8 knots by 20Z, then
light and variable AFT 00Z. Clear skies and calm wind overnight
may result in patchy shallow ground fog. The isolated and thin
coverage should not pose any significant VSBY constraints over
local runways.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Isolated showers between Thursday 18z and
Friday 04z.


NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 6 AM Tuesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

A cold front is currently dropping south across the waters and
will be well to our south by daybreak. A cold surge following this
front will kick N to NE winds up into the 15 to 20 kt range, with
gusts to 25 kts early in the period, and seas building 3 to 5 ft.
This has necessitated Exercise Caution headlines for this morning
for all but AMZ254. Conditions will improve later today as high
pressure settles over the waters, with more benign conditions
expected to from this afternoon through tonight.

SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Benign conditions will continue across the
waters through the period with winds in the 10 to 15 kt range and
seas of around 2 to 3 ft. High pressure will move across the
waters on Wednesday, with a weak cold front moving offshore on
Thursday night. Showers may accompany frontal passage, especially
Thursday afternoon and evening, but conditions are expected to
remain well below advisory criteria.

As of 3 AM Tuesday...Northwesterly post cold frontal winds on
Friday but the absence of any strong high building in will
preclude any increase in wind speed. In fact winds will likely
weaken as the day wears on. As such seas will remain very
manageable for most mariners, generally capped at 2 to 3 ft. Wind
then turns to west or southwest as a broad and very weak ridge
axis sets up along the Gulf Coast. This could increase wind speeds
by just a few knots.





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