Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 011016
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NEAR
TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND WITH
DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN EXPECT FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. LACK OF MOISTURE
ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
IS VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY
FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
AROUND ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SHK


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