Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KILM 210250
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1050 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south across the area this evening,
bringing drier weather in its wake. Temperatures will surge back
above normal for the weekend, with the possibility of showers and
thunderstorms increasing early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the
latest update. Previous discussion follows:

The cold front appears to have cleared the northern two-thirds of
the forecast area as it continues to drop slowly south. Water
vapor loops show plenty of dry air overhead and this is a big
reason for the almost complete lack of convection this afternoon
and evening. Have knocked back POPs to sub-mentionable levels
except for over southern Brunswick County where a weak storm is
still in progress. Expect a dry overnight period.

Overnight temperature forecast of the lower 70s inland to the
middle 70s at the beaches still holds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...High pressure will build by Thursday and
will slowly give way to a developing Piedmont trough. The chances
for afternoon convection on Thursday look to be shunted to the
southwest sections of the CWA where the best moisture and any
possible convergence exist with the old frontal boundary. At this
time on slight chance of convection is forecast. For Friday there
will be an slight increase in temperatures with highs ranging
between 91 to 93 degrees. Lows will rebound on Thursday night from
the lower 70s inland to mid 70s to mid 70s everywhere Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...With a ridge of high pressure overhead,
hot and dry conditions will prevail this weekend, though would not
entirely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Sunday.
High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90`s inland and
lower 90`s at the coast. This along with dewpoints in the low to
mid 70`s will allow for heat indices to climb into the lower
100`s. Into early next week, high temperatures will drop slightly
in the lower 90`s,but dewpoints will rise in the mid 70`s. As a
result, will continue to see heat indices in the lower 100`s
through midweek. With increasing low level moisture and the aid of
the piedmont trough and afternoon seabreeze Monday through
Wednesday, expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
as the upper ridge weakens. Overnight low temperatures throughout
the period will range in the mid to upper 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 00Z...Potential for periods of MVFR/IFR associated with
fog late overnight into early Thursday morning. Otherwise VFR.

Latest radar imagery shows weak dissipating convection mainly
near KILM. Winds are light SE-SW and will become light and
variable later this evening. After midnight MVFR/IFR due to
fog is expected, with the densest and highest confidence at
the inland terminals...specifically KFLO. Coastal terminals
should remain MVFR/VFR. VFR expected to prevail shortly after
daybreak. Winds Thursday will be N-NE veering to the E-S as the
day progresses. A few showers possible near KFLO in the afternoon.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Brief periods of MVFR/IFR from isolated afternoon
convection through Saturday. Otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the
latest update. Previous discussion follows:

A cold front is shifting southward across the South Carolina
coastal waters and this front will eventually stall just south of
Georgetown. Winds will shift across the waters this evening but
ahead of the front light south- westerly winds will continue. Seas
will continue to run between 1 to 3 ft with a 1 to 2 foot east-
southeast swell.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...As high pressure builds over the waters the
winds are expected to be generally less than 10 knots and seas
will be in the 2 to 3 ft range.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...High pressure will remain in place across
the waters through the forecast period. South-southwest winds will
persist with occasional higher gusts up to 18 kts Saturday into
Sunday. Seas around 2 to 4 ft are expected.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...SGL/DRH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.