Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 150018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
718 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Relatively cooler high pressure will extend into the Carolinas
through the weekend. A warming trend will take place Tuesday
through Thursday in south winds ahead of another cold front.
Rain chances will ramp up late next week as the front stalls,
followed by a low pressure system from the Gulf states.


As of 700 PM Saturday...Weak ridging to dominate the area. Main
baroclinic zone oriented e to w will remain north of the fa.
Moisture remains in 2 layers, the 1st sfc thru 7h and the other
above 4h. Looking at Stratus or stratocu and/or Ci/Cs. With
cloudiness in the area at all times, skies will generally be
considered partly to variably cloudy. No pcpn is expected. Have
included patchy to areas of fog at best given the amount of
cloudiness. Not one of you best radiational cooling nights for
fog to develop eventhough winds go calm across the majority of
the FA.

As of 245 PM Saturday...Stratus deck steadily eroding from the south
is allowing temperatures to break the 60 mark in many places, which
is a bit above guidance. Our very northern-most counties may yet
completely break from the cloud cover, with most places seeing a
welcome bit of sun for the remainder of this afternoon.

High pressure wedging SW along the Appalachians will keep a weak
back-door cold front stalled to our south through the daylight
hours, although guidance hints that it may lift back north overnight
as a series of weak disturbances move along the front. While it is
possible some places may experience a light sprinkle or misting from
this overnight, the most likely scenario is we will remain dry with
cloud cover and patchy fog re-developing across the forecast area.
Cloud cover and a brief shot of WAA following the northward-moving
front will keep lows elevated in the mid to upper 40s, or about 10
degrees above normal.


As of 245 PM Saturday...Although confidence is low regarding
placement, it looks like the old back-door front will continue to
waver about over the eastern Carolinas. Weak associated lift and
continued low-level mositure advection will keep us in and out of
clouds through the period, with the off chance of a few sprinkles or
light showers. QPF is expected to be minimal, with most places
staying dry. A weak wedge-like pattern resulting from this setup
will allow a cool NE flow to develop by Sunday afternoon, with
daytime temperatures dropping back around climo on Monday. Extensive
cloud cover will help keep lows elevated in the mid to upper 40s
though for both nights.


As of 245 PM Saturday...The mid level pattern will feature a split flow
initially with a transition into a broader western trough and
eastern ridge by the end of the period. For our area weak systems
will accompany this flow and expect a kind of unsettled albeit warm
period. The first system is a cold front Wednesday that lacks much
push to the south and sets up residence west to east across the
area. A slightly stronger mid level system will move across the area
late Thursday and Friday and the highest pops are forecast for this
period. Trying to find a period or two where we can remove pops but
with some timing differences among the guidance it has proven all
but impossible. Expect warm temperatures throughout the period with
more highs in the 70s at least early on.


As of 00Z...Difficult forecast on tap for the valid TAF period as
confidence remains low regarding the potential for fog and low
cigs to create MVFRIFRLIFR. Disagreement continues between
latest guidance as the primary factor that will decipher the extent
of flight restrictions will be the amount of saturation still
available within the atmospheric column. For now, have trended
with the previous forecast and a blend of the both the NAM and
GFS. Light winds will continue overnight with SCT/BKN low cigs.
Anticipate areas of fog to develop, and this along with low
cigs will create MVFR/marginal IFR. After daybreak, any
lingering low cigs will gradually disperse, from IFR to MVFR.
West-northwesterly winds Sunday morning around 5 to 10 kts will
become northeasterly into Wednesday afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through
Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday will be accompanied by
showers and MVFR. Otherwise expect VFR.


As of 700 PM Saturday...Sfc pg continues to relax as weak sfc
high pressure prevails. Looking at NW to N winds around 10 kt
for the overnight. For significant seas 2 to 4 ft will dominate
the local waters. The majority of the seas make-up will come
from an easterly ground swell exhibiting 12 second periods.

As of 245 PM Saturday...A weak pressure pattern will persist as
a cold front remains stalled over our southern waters this
afternoon. This front may lift north across the waters
overnight. NE winds of 10 to 15 kts this afternoon will drop to
around 10 kts tonight, with seas of 3 to 4 ft this afternoon
subsiding to 2 to 3 ft overnight.

As of 245 PM Saturday...High pressure centered to the north will
extend south across the waters through the short term, keeping
winds generally northerly and in the 10 to 15 kt range through
the period. Seas will range right around 3 ft.

As of 245 PM Saturday...Overall expect a southerly flow Tuesday into
early Thursday as what is left of yet another wedge scenario quickly
dissipates. Wind speeds will reach a maximum of 15-20 knots Wednesday
afternoon as a cold front moves closer from the northwest. This
front moves south Thursday and essentially dissipates with the wind
fields much weaker but maintaining a southerly component.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.




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