Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 211348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...A BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM BALD HEAD
ISLAND NORTHWESTWARD JUST WEST OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER LATE THIS
MORNING. ACTIVITY FIRST DEVELOPED OVER LUMBERTON A COUPLE HOURS AGO
AND DROPPED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR THE CITY. SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION TODAY COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2.2 INCHES MEANS FURTHER HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 83-85 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WILL GENERATE
1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH NO CAPPING. LOOK FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF
STORMS TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS PROBABLY PICKING UP 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH AREAL AVERAGES IN THE 0.3 TO 0.6 INCH RANGE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...

SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND HAVE WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR THE
TIME BEING...THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH ITS LINGERING EFFECTS PERSISTING INTO TUE. AT THE SURFACE...AN
INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
AS RESIDUAL WEDGING HANGS ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THUS...WE
WILL HAVE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES THIS PERIOD WHILE STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. THIS SCENARIO NOT ONLY POINTS TO
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION. THUS...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY MORE THAN 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR.
OFTEN TIMES IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL DEVELOP...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FAVORING THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LBT TO MAO LINE.

THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD HELP TO
HOLD TEMPS DOWN AND WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY 90 DEGREE
READINGS TODAY...UNUSUAL FOR LATE JULY. WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY LINGER OR
DROP INTO THE 70S WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST. SEASONABLE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...PUSHING A LINGERING
FRONT/TROUGH BACK TOWARDS LOCAL FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND MID TO
UPPER LOW TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH PCP WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TUES INTO WED. UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
WESTWARD ON WED TO KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION AT BAY BUT WITH SUCH A
MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS PRESENT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FLARE UP
THROUGH WED. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED TUES INTO WED REMAINING A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION
ALONG WITH OTHER LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AND ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER THROUGH
WED AND INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST. AS HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE CLOSE TO CLIMO ON TUES AND ABOVE BY WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO IN MOISTURE RICH AIR
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. AN INCREASING DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION ALONG
WITH MORE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
AROUND BERMUDA HIGH ON THURS. THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS IT REACHES FURTHER EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. STILL DEBATABLE AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING OUT AS DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS PROMINENT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT MAINLY
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTMS ON
FRI AS GFS SHOWING BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT
AFFECTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER ON FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD VEER
TO THE W-NW BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT BRINGING IN A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING DOWN
CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES LATER ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AROUND BROAD TROUGH
STILL EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE UP
IN THE 90S AHEAD OF FRONT AND MAY DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND
FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT WILL WARM AGAIN COME THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VERY JUICY AIRMASS WILL A SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATION
MOVING THROUGH IT TODAY. BOTTOM LINE...CONVECTION WILL FIRE EARLY
AND OFTEN TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE TOO HEAVY DUE TO ALL THE
CLOUD COVER. THINGS MAY GET UNSTABLE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO KICK
OFF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IN THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR PERIODS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...BUT THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 KTS FOR THE
MOST PART. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SOME CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. I HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS NEARSHORE BY
ABOUT 5 KNOTS BASED ON LATEST PIER AND COASTAL MESONET REPORTS OF
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE SEA
STATE IS DOMINATED BY A SOUTHEAST SWELL WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND
3 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...

AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO OUR EAST IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ASSERT A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PUSH UNTIL TUE OR WED. THEREFORE...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ALSO...A SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP TODAY AS TEMPS ACROSS THE
LAND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE DIRECTION WILL BE MAINLY SE TO ESE. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF
WIND AND SWELL...BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3
FT. A 8 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN NUMBER THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON SHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS
WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH TUES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WHICH WILL IN RETURN PUSH SEAS UP TO 3
TO 5 FT BY WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KTS AS THEY VEER
SLIGHTLY TO S-SW THURS THROUGH FRI IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LEVELING OFF JUST NEAR
SCA THRESHOLDS THURS AFTN THROUGH FRI. COLD FRONT MAY NOT REACH
THE WATERS AS IT SLOWS DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. STIFF S-SW WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5
FT AND POSSIBLE NEAR 6 FT BY LATE THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43





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