Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 271926
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
326 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL
LIKELY SUFFER AN INTENSITY LOSS AS THE FUEL OF LOW-LEVEL HEATING
UNDERGOES GRADUAL DEPLETION THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER MAY PERPETUATE POCKETS OF STRONG PULSE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POP VALUES
TONIGHT WILL CARRY A STEADY DOWNTREND TREND ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WITH FAIR CONDITIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY POP OVER THE MILDER GULFSTREAM WATERS IN A LANDWARD
TRACK DUE TO DIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT ..BUT  THE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK AND NO PLANS FOR COASTAL
SHOWERS TONIGHT  IS PLANNED. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL SUSTAIN MILD
LOWS INTO DAYBREAK BETWEEN 67-69 INLAND AND 69-72 CLOSER TO THE
OCEAN. A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD
TO PATCHES OF MIST OR SLIVERS OF FOG BANKS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
DECREASE AFT 9Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL
UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM GULF CONVECTION COMING UP THIS WAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY
EVENING DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW INLAND
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT AT THE COAST EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED...MAINLY WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW...DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...FRIENDLY
MARINE CONDITIONS ONGOING AS 10 TO 15 KT S WINDS PREVAIL WITH 2-3
FOOT SEAS. DOMINANT WAVE GROUP WILL PROPAGATE IN 7-8 SECOND
PERIODS...ESE 2-3 FEET CO-MINGLED WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. NO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF STREAM WHICH MAY SPREAD NEAR
SHORE INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/MBB



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