Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KILM 251655
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1153 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT RIGHT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG
THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE
UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AS FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
SHOW PCP WATER DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE BUT
THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEPER
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. AS LOW PROGRESSES UP THE COAST
WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
W-SW ZONES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH RAIN BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING TONIGHT BUT AS
LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END OF LOW TOWARD MORNING. MAY
SEE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE DAY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.  RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
MOVES AWAY TO THE NE.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY
IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG
CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST RIDING UP JUST JUST
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING.
LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM
WED MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY.  WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15
KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION.  SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.