Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241210

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
810 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

One more chilly start this morning...before temperatures rise
above normal for the entire upcoming week. A series of passing
low pressure systems will bring slight chances of rain Sunday
through Tuesday, and again late next week.


As of 810 AM Friday...Have cancelled the Frost Advisory an hour
early as temperatures are rising rapidly this morning. No
changes to the forecast otherwise needed. Previous discussion
from early this morning follows:

After a chilly to in some spots frosty morning today will turn
out seasonable under a sunny sky, some 15 degrees warmer than
yesterday. This is thanks to a surface and low level area of
high pressure off the coast. The sunshine will largely be
sponsored by the mid level ridge, shifted a bit further west
from the low level feature and generally be centered overhead.
This upper level ridge will move east tonight, opening up the
area to some deeper moisture advection, albeit in a fairly
gradual manner.The warm advection will continue as well bringing
a seasonable to slightly mild night with lows fairly close to


As of 324 AM Friday...Hearty warm air advection already
underway to kick off the weekend, with a short-wave cyclone
pushing into the middle Mississippi valley and a high pressure
cell axis elongated along 34 N in the western Atlantic. If you
like your maximum temperatures in the 70s this will be your
weekend. Curvature of the low pressure system northward Sunday
west of the area, will deflect the bulk of precipitation into
the Appalachians with little offerings near the coast, thus
small rain chances Sunday and favored well inland. Low-level
convergence offshore may spark a few marine showers toward land
but rain amounts if any to be minimal.


As of 324 AM Friday...A very mild week on tap with a series of
southern stream short-waves providing a chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday and again late in the week. Maximums this week each day will
range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, and generally warmer inland
away from the cooling effects of the ocean as a robust sea breeze
looks in the making each afternoon. Cross sectional analysis and
instability parameters suggest a slight chance of a TSTM late Monday
through Tuesday. Low level and moist southerly wind flow will
prevail this period, with a brief and weak back-door frontal
intrusion early Thursday will little consequence except to lighten
winds for a small time before another southern stream system
approaches, followed by a rain potential on Friday.


As of 12Z...High confidence in VFR for all terminals through
the TAF valid period. For FLO a stratus deck at 7 kft has moved
in from the west, but this should break up very early.

Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in
stratus/fog during the early morning hours of Sat and Sun and
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through


As of 810 AM Friday..Latest obs show seas right around 3 ft with
a SE wind of 10 kts. No changes needed to the forecast with the
latest update. Previous discussion from early this morning

Things looking pretty quiet on the marine front through the
period. High pressure off the coast and progressing slightly
eastward will turn easterly winds to the south. Wind speeds will
remain capped at 10kt and seas 3 ft or less.

As of 324 AM Friday...A manageable weekend on tap for mariners,
nearly summer-like in nature, as south winds 10-15 kt prevail
and seas 2-4 feet, highest offshore. Seas a bit larger for the
winds mainly due to SE waves of 2-4 feet between 7-10 seconds
generated from low pressure interacting with high pressure north
of the Bahamas. thus seas slightly elevated due to SE swell.
At this time no advisories however anticipated. A few showers
may spawn over the waters Sunday but no TSTMS expected over the
0-20nm waters.

As of 324 AM Friday...Summer like pattern continues as S-SW
winds prevail 10-15 KT. A SE swell will keep seas slightly
elevated, but dominant periods of around 10 seconds will not
make wave particularly steep. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday
a few TSTMS can be expected as a low pressure system passes
north of the area. Wednesday may see a few storms linger over
the Gulf Stream waters.





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