Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 110225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL PICK UP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INCLUDING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND SUB-1000 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ARE
MAINTAINING A HEALTHY WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DESPITE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW
TEMPERATURE FALL AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ONLY DUE TO RESIDUAL COLD
ADVECTION RATHER THAN FROM THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A RADIATION
INVERSION.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE BIG LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED
FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE CAROLINAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STREAKING SE ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AROUND 06Z (1 AM EST). MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER SUDDENLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT YOUR
HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE TO SHOW A RATHER SUDDEN DROP BETWEEN 2-4
AM...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 20S TO
MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THU. A MOISTURE STARVED AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ENE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE LOW...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE TO GET WRAPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM AND THROWN
BACK WESTWARD WHILE THE LOW IS STILL IN THE VICINITY OF LAND.
ALSO...WE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EARLY ON BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED AND STRONGEST AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO FRI
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING A PERIOD OF
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH YOU WOULD NOT
EXPECT WITH THIS TYPE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM...THERE IS A DEFINITE
MOISTENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED A WINTRY MIX FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY JUST W OF THE IMMEDIATE GRAND STRAND AND
WESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF FLORENCE COUNTY ON NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CAPE FEAR AND LUMBERTON AREAS. IN THESE AREAS...LIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH ICE PELLETS OR SNOW AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
TEMPS VERY EARLY FRI MORNING...BEFORE DAYBREAK...SHOULD BEGIN TO
RISE WITH THICK CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND AN
ONSHORE WIND TAKING HOLD FOR A TIME. ANY WINTRY MIX SHOULD TURN TO
LIGHT LIQUID RAIN DURING FRI AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS ARE
CURRENTLY 20/30 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. POPS
WILL BE LOWEST WEST OF I-95 AND IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH WEST
OF I-95...IT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS WILL
BE A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT AND AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET OR ICE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS JUST A TRACE
COULD MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY GROUND AND ROAD CONDITIONS AND THIS
WILL DEPEND ON GROUND TEMPS AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FRI
EVE...ENDING THE RISK FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND ON FRI...UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...MID 40S WELL S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR. EVEN COLDER TEMPS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY ON
SATURDAY AS LARGE 1040+MB HIGH SINKS INTO IOWA. NOT  MUCH CLOUD
COVER BUT TEMPS WILL BE HELD WAY BELOW CLIMO. WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD HIGHS MAY HAVE A LARGER N/S GRADIENT
THAN NORMAL WITH FAR NWRN ZONES STRUGGLING TO HIT 40 WHILE GTOWN AND
WBURG `WARM` INTO THE MID 40S. THE COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECTING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD IF NOT THE
ENTIRE WINTER. MOST PLACES ABOUT 2 DEGREES +/- 20 DEGREES. SAVING
GRACE OF NOT GETTING COLDER (PER ECWMF MOS) IS THAT WINDS STAY UP
AND WE DO NOT DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH A COLD START AND SHALLOW MIXING ON
SUNDAY EXPECT THE COLDEST HIGHS, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THIS IS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS ON THE RISE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRECLUDE SUCH COLD THOUGH TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. CONTINUED WARMING AND MOISTENING ON MONDAY AS
NEXT TROUGH BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA AND THE CHILLY HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. SHOULD PRECIP ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IMPLIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS) THEN THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF WINTRY P-
TYPE. THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A GRADUAL RAMPING
UP OF RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE LEADS TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEEPEN
APPRECIABLY ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A FAIRLY ROBUST RAINFALL LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONTINUED COLD WEATHER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GUSTY WEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6 KTS. SOME CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE
OVER FLO OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. THURSDAY...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW...NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY AND DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
AND PERHAPS MVFR AT TIMES. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND SUB-1000 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ARE
MAINTAINING A HEALTHY WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE
20-25 KT WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TOWARD 30 KT BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS
ARE 3-5 FEET EXCEPT FOR A REGION OF 5-7 FOOT SEAS OFF THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY/CAPE FEAR COAST WHERE A WESTERLY WIND HAS A
SOMEWHAT LONGER FETCH TO WORK WITH.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER
INTO THU MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS THU WILL BE DROPPING FROM NEAR 20 KT EARLY TO
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR
LESS THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT...TO
AROUND 15 KT...AS NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACHES. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE NW OR WNW THU...VEERING TO NE AND E THU NIGHT
AND FRI AS QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY JUST TO OUR S AND
THEN PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE ON A ENE TRAJECTORY. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO NW FRI EVE AND FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THU MORNING...SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 4 FT THU AFTERNOON AND 2 FT OR LESS THU NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT EARLY SATURDAY A BIT PINCHED
BETWEEN EXITING STORM SYSTEM AND LARGE, STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. CONDITIONS COULD BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGH PROGRESSES EAST AND WINDS UP TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF AN EASING OF THE
GRADIENT. THE CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS AIRMASS HEADING
INTO MONDAY WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT COULD REALLY RAMP UP WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON THIS EVENING. ISSUED A MWS FOR
LOWER WATER LEVELS FOR THE GRAND STRAND REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK


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