Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 121354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
954 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Unseasonably warm and humid weather will continue through
the weekend. A weak cold front will reach the Carolinas late
today, with relatively drier and slightly cooler weather heading
into the weekend, but continuing unseasonably warm. Fall-like
weather should arrive next week as a stronger cold front moves


As of 945 AM Thursday...frontal boundary still just west and
north of forecast area. Winds are light an the fog in the
western portions of the area are slowly lifting. The GOES-16
total precipitable waters shows values of 1.9" along the
immediate coast and 1.7" along interstate 95. Lower values
remain to the west. Expect the frontal boundary to be focus of
showers and isolated thunderstorms today as this boundary tries
to slowly shift to the coast.

Highs today are still forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s.
Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 60s to the
lower 70s.


As of 3 AM Thursday...Moist layer will be much shallower in the
wake of a weak cold frontal passage, with the front moving east
of the forecast area and offshore by daybreak on Friday.
Moisture will be mainly confined below 850mb as advected in off
the ocean in a NEly low-level flow. P/W values will be down
around 1.50 to 1.75 inches rather than the 2.00 inches plus that
we have been experiencing recently. Best chances for precip
early in the period on Friday, with chance pops throughout,
dropping to slight chance Friday night with silent pops beyond
that. This is a cold front in name only, with little in the way
of thermal support. Temperatures will remain well above normal,
with highs in the lower 80s both days and lows in the mid to
upper 60s.


As of 230 PM Wednesday...Temperatures will be well above normal
through the weekend into early next week with H5 ridge across
the Southeast United States. The ridge is shown to break down
early next week which could open the door to a cold frontal
passage and a much cooler airmass for Tuesday and Wednesday.
However, the H5 pattern becomes less amplified by early next
week creating some doubt that the front will move through late
Mon/Tue as currently advertised by the GFS. A slower progression
of the front would carry rainfall chances into Tuesday as well.
Followed a blend of MEX/ECE max and min temperatures Sat-Monday
but leaned toward the warmer MEX temps Tue-Wed time frame.


As of 12Z...For the very near term, through the early morning
hours based on IR satellite data, good confidence that the
coastal sites will start out VFR, with MVFR cigs for our inland
sites. After this, we have a lower confidence forecast through
the TAF valid period regarding both timing and magnitude of vsby
and cig flight restrictions. Ample tropically-sourced moisture
will lead to the potential for MVFR/IFR cig and vsby conditions,
especially this evening and overnight, with a multi-layered
deck present in some form throughout the period. Best chance for
convection will be this afternoon and evening.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible during the
mornings Friday and Saturday from ceilings and/or reduced vsby
from fog. Scattered showers are expected each day which could
produce brief MVFR/IFR conditions.


As of 950 AM Thursday...A frontal boundary should shift off the
coast this evening. Winds will be light from the south to the
southwest at 10 knots or less. As the front shifts off the coast
the winds will be light from the northwest. Speeds will be on
the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range as the period ends. Seas 2
to 3 ft for much of the period will build to a solid 3 ft,
mainly across NC waters, following the development of northeast
surge overnight.

As of 3 AM Thursday...Winds will have turned NE at 10 to 15 kts
in the wake of a weak cold front that will have just moved just
east of the waters Friday morning. Winds will slacken to around
10 kts Friday night, gradually veering to the E by Saturday
night while staying light. Seas will range right around 3 ft
through the period.

As of 230 PM Wednesday...Weak high pressure will prevail at the
onset of the long term period. The high will shift offshore
allowing winds to veer to a southerly direction during Sunday.
A cold front is expected to approach the waters during Monday
but the GFS may be too fast translating into a longer period of
southerly winds. Seas are expected to average 3 ft or less
through the period





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