Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 231207
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
707 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
BRINGS WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE DAYBREAK
UPDATE...DID SCALE BACK POP VALUES A LITTLE BIT IN THE VERY EARLY
GOING THIS MORNING...PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EVOLVING GULF STORM SYSTEM WAS SPREADING A VEIL OF STRATIFORM RAIN
ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WITH HIGHER RAIN RATES AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS TEXAS WILL DEEPEN
AND LIFT THE SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHOSE AXIS FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT WILL MIGRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR OF NE SC AND SE NC. THIS SYSTEM POSES SEVERAL CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INGEST TAPPED OFF THE GULF STREAM WILL BOOST DEWPOINTS TONIGHT AND
A BLEND OF RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TD VALUES NEAR 60 SPREADING INLAND
TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES
ARE INHIBITING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND-FIELDS AND DYNAMIC ASSIST
FROM ALOFT WARRANTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND WORDING IN ZONES/GRIDS.
SEVERAL OF THE STORMS MAY ORIGINATE OVER WATER AND ROTATE ASHORE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN HIGH HELICITY FIELDS.

QPF/FLOODING CONCERNS...4 DAYS HAVE ELAPSED SINCE THE MOST RECENT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND PREDICTED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.5 -
2.25 INCHES OVER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD NOT POSE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING PROBLEMS. POTENTIAL HEAVY AND TRAINING CONVECTION FAVORED
NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT COULD REQUIRE SHORT-FUSE FLOOD
ADVISORY ISSUANCES HOWEVER. THE RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SEVERAL OF
OUR LOCAL RIVERS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SLIGHTLY OUT OF BANK IN THE
DAYS AHEAD.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BEAR TODAY...SHOWING A LARGE RANGE WITH
LOW/MID 40S LIKELY LOCKED-IN DEEP INLAND WEST OF I-95 IN COOL
RAIN...WITH MILDER 50S IN THE AFTERNOON EDGING ONSHORE TODAY AS
SE WINDS INTENSIFY ADJACENT TO THE COAST. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY
THE SFC LOW WILL RESIDE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS...WITH EASING NW WINDS
SETTLING INTO THE LAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXITING THE
OUTER BANKS SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL PUSH UP TOWARDS THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY...SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE DURING SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE COLD AND DRY ADVECTION
SHUTS OFF THE PRECIP. DRY ADVECTION IS SO STRONG THAT CLOUDS WILL
BREAK BEFORE SUNSET...AND THE SUN MAY MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE
SATURDAY EVENING. AN ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WARMEST EARLY IN THE DAY...REACHING THE UPR 40S INLAND TO
LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND THEN FALLING THROUGH THE AFTN. GUSTY
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN ON THE CAA...AND WIND
GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS COOL
ADVECTION WILL THEN DRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT MINS WELL DOWN INTO THE
30S...WITH SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW ZONES.

THIS LOW WILL BE LONG GONE BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH
FROM THE GULF COAST WILL CREATE A PLEASANT DAY LOCALLY. HIGHS WILL
EXCEED CLIMO VALUES...RISING INTO THE MID 50S BENEATH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN. LATE SUNDAY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NW. ALTHOUGH
THIS VORTICITY IMPULSE IS QUITE STRONG...IT IS ENCOUNTERING AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS STARVED OF MOISTURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. THE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS FROM GETTING TOO COOL THOUGH...WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PLAGUES THE EAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING...AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THANKS TO SOMEWHAT ENHANCED COLUMN MOISTURE
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE -25C COLD POOL. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT THOUGH. THIS WILL SERVE ALSO AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF SOME ARCTIC AIR WHICH THEN FLOODS SOUTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...AND IS THEN REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND DRY COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUE/WED WILL RUN AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...BEFORE SLOW MODERATION BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
RECOVERING TO JUST BELOW CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
S OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS
-RA INCREASES IN COVERAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ONSET OF IFR CIGS
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM/NAM BUFFER GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT CIG/VSBY ANALYSIS/TRENDS. GFS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN
EARLIER ONSET OF IFR CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NE-E INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FROM 23-01Z WINDS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BECOME SOUTH GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH
IMPROVING CIGS TO MVFR/TEMPO VFR AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
GREATEST CHANCE OF VFR WILL BE AT KILM. ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TO COINCIDE WITH MAX LIFT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND
04Z...AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS 09-10Z...WITH IFR CIGS
SPREADING BACK INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS SAT MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SAT EVENING. VFR ON SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MON WITH A
COLD FRONT. VFR ON TUE.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 634 AM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF ELEVATES WINDS AND SEAS...AS IT MOVES TO HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH THIS STORM WILL REMAIN BEYOND 20NM. SEAS HEIGHTS TO PEAK AT
6-12 FEET TONIGHT AND FRYING PAN MAY SEE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 14
FEET. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...AND MARINERS ARE DISCOURAGED FROM VENTURING OFFSHORE IN
SMALL CRAFT. STRONG SE-SW WINDS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND WILL LEAVE A PINCHED GRADIENT AND GUSTY W/NW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...REACHING 20-30 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
SLOWLY EASE TO 10-15 KTS...BUT MAINTAIN THE PREDOMINANTLY W/NW
DIRECTION. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW A BIT AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY ELEVATED
EARLY...REACHING 7-10 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE
WINDS PUSH THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS...AT THE
SAME TIME SPEEDS ARE FALLING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 2 FT
MOST OF THE DAY...BEFORE RISING QUICKLY LATE TO 4-6 FT. ANOTHER SCA
MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
MONDAY...SO AS WINDS TURN FROM SW EARLY TO NW LATE...THEY WILL BE
15-20 KTS THANKS TO A PINCHED GRADIENT. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN N/NW
ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 10-15 KTS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA. 4-6 FT SEAS WILL GREET MARINERS
MONDAY MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE ONGOING TO START
THE PERIOD. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NW...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
PUSHED OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO
JUST 1-3 FT BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/JDW







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