Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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460
FXUS62 KILM 301037
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
536 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild, southerly breezes will continue Wednesday as a cold front
approaches the Carolinas from the west. This front will move
offshore early Thursday morning. Canadian high pressure will
bring cool, dry weather Thursday through Saturday. Areas of low
pressure developing along a front will bring clouds and
increasing rain chances late in the weekend through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Balmy, blustery day on tap and although
low, a non-zero chance exists for straight-line wind damage
associated with a TSTM or even strong shower later today and
again late tonight. KLTX VWP revealing a strong low-level wind
return of SW 30-40 KT at 1-2 KFt early this morning. The SPC
maintains a `Marginal Risk` of hazardous weather due to strong
winds. A lull presently in precipitation will pick up into
daybreak offshore, bringing occasional and swift moving showers
onshore into the Cape Fear region, which may expand in coverage
along the coast as short-wave energy in the approaching upper
trough travels SW to NE. A secondary line of broken convection
will cross the coast late tonight around 9Z/4AM just ahead of
the cold front. Examination of low-level winds show a strong
flow prevailing through at least evening so elevated or damaging
surface wind gusts will be possible through much of tonight,
before veering and easing into daybreak Thursday. With late
FROPA minimums will be mild in the upper 50s inland and low to
mid 60s by the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Take away weather headliner this period
reads `Drying and Cooling Thursday and Friday`, in wake of a
moderately strong cold front. Better cold air advection will
arrive Thursday night as low-level winds veer to NW-N, while
mid-level drying remains in place above 850 MB. This will
result in a Friday that very closely represents the temperature
expectation for very early December, whereas Thursday will
remain above average prior to cool air intrusion. The coldest
portion of this period is very early Saturday, widespread 30s
inland and lower 40s near the coast. Sunshine minutes will run
high Friday, in contrast to a day of clearing Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Mid-level ridge and surface high over the
Mississippi River valley Saturday will shift westward to over
the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday. Gulf moisture will be drawn northward
ahead of a shortwave crossing the central plains, and will
begin to spread into the area on Sunday. The surface high will
move offshore, and a surface low is expected to develop along a
warm frontal boundary off the South Carolina coast Sunday night,
enhancing rainfall chances. Differences between latest GFS/ECMWF
solutions regarding the progression of the closed low over
northern Mexico on Saturday will lend to a low confidence POP
forecast for Monday and Tuesday, but it appears likely that as
this low opens into a wave and lifts northeastward, it will
usher in another round of Gulf moisture, and will warrant POPs
both days until timing becomes more clear.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 12Z...Weak convection along the coast will stay mainly
offshore as a weak impulse rides up the coast. Gusty southerly flow
today may kick off a shower later today as the CAPE increases. Main
activity will occur tonight as a front rolls through the region.
There should be enough frontal lift to produce convection with gusty
winds, given the storms will be moving over 30 mph. Thunder is
definitely possible, but not in the TAFs at this time. Winds will
shift to the west, post frontal, at the end of the forecast period.


Extended outlook...Potential for MVFR/IFR in showers/isolated
thunderstorms late tonight thru Thursday morning. Otherwise
expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 Am Wednesday...Treacherous conditions prevail over the
0-20 NM waters as S-SSW winds of 20-30 KT and seas of 5-7 feet
strongly ruffle the ocean today and tonight. Fast moving showers
or an isolated TSTM could enhance gusts significantly today and
tonight. Winds will tend more to west after daybreak Thursday
with dangerous seas still propagating in 6-8 second intervals
and cross-wise choppiness from the WSW.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...While improved marine conditions are in
the cards this period, no joy-rides offshore will prevail, as
cold air advection cranks up late Thursday after a brief sea
recovery. NW-N chop will ramp-up late Thursday into Friday
producing a wave energy peak between 3-5 seconds into Friday.
The offshore wind component will however result in smaller sea
heights inshore compared to a pitchy wave quality offshore by
Friday. No advisories are expected but an `Exercise Caution`
statement could be needed for teh cold surge Thursday night and
Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure will build westward to the
Mid-Atlantic region this period, and result in a component of
N-NW winds both days. The gradient Friday through much of
Saturday will be supportive of 15 knots, but will weaken late
Saturday as the high center builds closer to the waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...43



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