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FXUS62 KILM 141041
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
641 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain with a few thunderstorms is expected today as
a warm front lifts northward. Low pressure developing along the
front to our north Wednesday will maintain chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Dry weather should develop Thursday and
Friday behind a cold front, but more rain is possible this
weekend as the next storm system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Area of showers in the first stages of development this
morning via the latest radar loops. This southeast to northwest
oriented diffuse line will slowly fill in and gather itself through
the morning hours. By maturity around noon or so a solid area of
heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms will move across Cape Fear and
off to the northeast. This is all from the sprawling storm system
emanating from the closed mid level low in the Mississippi Valley.
Beyond this at least for the near term it will be light showers and
or drizzle as the heavy lifting forcing is gone. The idea of some
increase in activity into Wednesday morning for a few hours seems to
have diminished as well. Any severe potential with the activity all
but confined to the morning appears limited as this system has never
seemed strongly forced. Still marginal risk remains from SPC. Not a
lot of variability with temperatures through the period via all the
moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The first mass of shortwave energy should already be off the
North Carolina coast by Wednesday morning, however the larger
upper system will still be located to our west over Tennessee
and Kentucky. This system should roll gradually eastward, moving
overhead during the evening and offshore by late Wednesday
night. At the surface, a broad zone of low pressure beneath and
east of the upper system will contain multiple centers.

Enough sun should make it through the clouds Wednesday to push
temperatures into the 80s for all but the beaches. HREF ensemble
mean CAPE near 1500 J/kg (maximum over 2500 J/kg) coupled with
30+ knots of 0-6 km bulk shear should be enough to create
fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms within a boundary
rich environment. Given good multicell organization and zippy
mid level winds expected, convective line segments could produce
strong and potentially damaging wind gusts during the afternoon
and evening hours.

As the various surface lows consolidate off the Virginia coast
Wednesday night, a cold front will be pushed south and across
the Carolinas, allowing cooler and drier air to advect in.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A modest shortwave ridge extending from Alabama to Ohio on
Thursday will push across the Carolinas on Friday. This ridge
will support weak high pressure at the surface that should
provide two days of mainly dry weather.

Although model to model consistency has improved from yesterday,
there is still a larger-than-normal spread in guidance about the
shape of the incoming upper system Saturday and Sunday. What is
certain is that a shortwave will move eastward across the
eastern U.S. bringing renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms this weekend. What is less certain is when the
best potential for storms might be. For now I`m highlighting
Saturday with the highest PoPs (50 percent), decreasing Sunday
into Monday as a cold front likely moves through from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions holding on but with rainfall increasing in
coverage MVFR to eventually IFR conditions are on the way.
Really the only change outside of some timing here and there is
to go a little more pessimistic tonight with low clouds and
visibilities as there is just no impetus for meaningful
scouring of the moisture. Otherwise forecast is a glorified
update of the 06 Z tafs.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions may occur
Tue night thru Wed ahead of the next weather system. VFR
conditions to dominate Thu thru Fri. The next system with
potential flight restrictions approaches Sat.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Winds and seas are on the steady increase
this morning and are essentially on schedule to reach small
craft criteria late morning. Seas should reach a maximum of 5-7
feet on the heels of several hours of southeast winds in and
around 20 knots. The flow will turn more southerly tonight with
speeds dropping a bit. The change in fetch will limit seas
slightly although they should remain in headline criteria for
the most part.

Wednesday through Saturday... A complex of low pressure centers
across the Mid Atlantic states Wednesday should create a
moderate southwest wind across our local coastal waters.
Scattered showers moving quickly east to west across the area
may be joined by thunderstorm clusters during the afternoon and
evening hours, some of which could produce strong and gusty
winds. A cold front should slide through from the north
Wednesday night, beginning a two day period of northerly winds
and dry weather that should last through Friday.

Model consistency becomes lower than normal by Saturday, but it
appears low pressure to our west should drag enough Gulf
moisture northward to bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms back to our area, along with strengthening south
winds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A long fetch of south-southeasterly onshore
winds should generate a considerable 6-second wind wave today.
Along the North Carolina beaches objective statistical MOS and
local equations suggest this will produce a high risk of rip
currents this afternoon. For the South Carolina beaches,
onshore winds should remain weaker and the rip current risk is
expected to climb into the "moderate" category today.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A long fetch of south-southeasterly onshore
winds should generate a considerable 6-second wind wave today.
Along the North Carolina beaches objective statistical MOS and
local equations suggest this will produce a high risk of rip
currents this afternoon. For the South Carolina beaches,
onshore winds should remain weaker and the rip current risk is
expected to climb into the "moderate" category today.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...