Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311507 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions can be expected the next couple of days. By Friday a tropical system will move just offshore bringing with it strong winds and heavy rainfall. High pressure builds in for the Labor Day weekend with pleasant conditions which will continue well into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1100 AM Wednesday...Interesting change in the 12z WRF in that it now shows upper low to our south strengthening rather thanweakening as it lifts northward across the area today. This may bodewell for precip chances even as the surface reflection near JAXshows little movement. The seemingly well-initialized HRRR on theother than not so impressed with much falling over much of NC. Willgo ahead and increase POPS over mainly coastal NC but later thisevening, much more in line with SREF output as there seems notingenvironmental at this time to preclude the upper low`s ability tospread rain northward as it lifts. It will be another warm and humid day with highs inland near 90 or in the lower 90s. As you near the coast, onshore flow and a greater coverage of clouds and showers should keep highs in the upper 80s with mid 80s at the beaches. Lows tonight will again be in the lower to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...We will be closely monitoring the strength and track of a tropical cyclone this period. Latest information from the National Hurricane Center has a tropical cyclone tracking up the southeast coast. A strong cold front is still expected to move southeast and across the area Thu night and Fri morning. At the same time, the tropical cyclone will be accelerating to the NE ahead of the trough. The front will likely stall just offshore until the cyclone moves by, locking in a tropical environment. Once the tropical cyclone does move off to the NE, much drier and cooler air will be ushered in across the Carolinas, perhaps as early as late Fri night and Sat. Impacts across the forecast area and timing are not nailed down quite yet. However, certainly a much wetter picture is beginning to be painted as isentropic lift and a tropical system sync up. Our current best estimate is for 5 to 7 inches along the more immediate coastal areas and then 3 to 5 inches a little further inland with 1 to 3 inches for areas generally west of EYF, MAO to near CKI. A Flood Watch may be required for portions of the area if the current QPF projections hold. Also, with the new moon on Fri, and a strong onshore push, we may have to contend with coastal flooding for the immediate coast and along portions of the lower Cape Fear River during high tide. Other impacts will include beach erosion, strong rip currents and high and very rough surf. Storm surge is also possible, but the exact path of the storm will be crucial as to the magnitude of any surge. Finally, there is the wind to contend with and certainly the intensity of this system will largely determine that although proximity to land and overall geographic size will also be significant factors. Tropical storm force winds are certainly possible with a higher probability along the more immediate coast than areas well inland. The strongest winds should occur over the waters. The National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor with NOAA aircraft routinely investigating the storm. Tropical headlines will be issued as confidence in the track and timing increases, perhaps as early as later today or tonight for portions of the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...The mid level pattern will transition to one of modest ridging with the center in the southeast with somewhat deep troughing out west. At the surface it will be massive high pressure building in from north and moving little as the parent pattern moves slowly. There is only one hint of pops through the period with a surge front Saturday but even this seems a stretch. The latest MEX guidance remains consistent with highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Still no 50s in the guidance but close in LBT with 62. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 12Z...LIFR affecting LBT at this time. Conditions may bleed into ILM, but have left that scenario out at the moment. Upper low will try to drag moisture northward. Confidence fairly high that convection will reach the Myrtles at the minimum by early afternoon, possibly affecting ILM a couple of hours later. Brief IFR conditions are possible. Light gradient will allow an onshore flow later today. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Tropical storm conditions are possible from late Thursday night through Friday night. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11 AM Wednesday...No changes as usual with such light winds inplace. Gaston swell still abating and no headlines. The gradient isso weak today due to a lineup of troughiness from TD 8 to the lowjust east of JAX, all displacing the west atlantic high further outto sea. Previous discussion follows. As of 600 AM Wednesday...Showers and some thunderstorms were increasing across the southernmost waters and moving N. Winds and seas will be rather benign this period. Swell from Gaston will be the primary driver of seas, up to 3 to 4 ft. Winds will be up to 15 kt, strongest this afternoon and eve. An easterly wind direction will dominate with winds backing to northerly later tonight as trough/weak low pressure moves off. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...Much more dangerous marine conditions are expected to develop across the waters with the worst of the conditions likely to develop from S to N beginning late THU night and FRi and then beginning to gradually improve, again from S to N, Fri night. The timing and specifics hinge on a cold front reaching the area Fri morning as a tropical cyclone accelerates to the NE along and ahead of this strong front. Tropical storm force winds are currently in the forecast, but wind speeds will be adjusted in later forecasts and will be highly dependent on the exact track and intensity of the tropical cyclone as it reaches our latitude. It is not impossible that winds and seas could be higher than currently forecast. Mariners should continue to closely monitor later forecasts. Tropical headlines will be issued as needed with later forecasts. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 AM Wednesday...A few hours of strong northerly winds will continue across the waters Saturday morning as a tropical system pulls away quickly to the northeast. By Saturday evening wind speeds will be down to ten knots or less from northeast. As high pressure builds in Sunday speeds will increase a touch to 10-15 knots. Significant seas will follow a similar trajectory with a healthy 4-7 feet early Saturday to 3-5 feet later Sunday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB/RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL

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