Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 302323 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 723 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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The oppressive heat and humidity will slowly abate early in the upcoming week. A cool front to our north will drop slowly across the Carolinas by Wednesday and this will bring a high chance for thunderstorms early in the new week. Temperatures will finally return to more normal mid-summer levels after Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 700 PM Saturday...The Heat Advisory has been cancelled as heat index values have fallen below advisory levels throughout. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for portions of the lower Cape Fear River in downtown Wilmington til 9 pm. Water levels are expected to just reach advisory criteria near 8 pm. The seabreeze has moved well inland and a few showers have developed along this boundary across Robeson and Bladen counties. All of the other showers and some thunderstorms are in association with the Piedmont trough and continue to move east across portions of the Pee Dee and Interstate 95 corridor. We expect this convection will be around into the late eve before beginning to dissipate. There is only a remote chance of any convection making it as far east as the more immediate coast. POPs have been adjusted accordingly. Severe weather is not expected, although a strong storm can not be ruled out. Low-level jetting should make for an uncomfortable night and temps should struggle to drop below 80 across portions of the area with upper 70s most common. Humidity levels will be high.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Similar pattern through Sunday with Atlantic ridge in place to the southeast and Piedmont trough to the west. A deep SW flow of moist air will continue to feed into the Carolinas. Looks like convection will once again be focused along sea breeze in the afternoon and along trough inland on Sunday with mainly scattered coverage. On Monday, The mid to upper trough to the northwest will push a cold front/trough south and east into the Carolinas. Local area will lose cap as ridge slips farther east and minor shortwaves ride across the base of the mid to upper trough. The increased instability along with upper level support will produce more widespread convection Mon aftn. The strong westerly push will steer the storms into the area but also expect a little more organized convection for Monday. The H5 heights and 850 temps look like they will decrease slightly Sun and Mon and the development of clouds and convection should all combine to limit temps increasing greater than 95 on Sunday and much past 90 most places on Monday. Therefore do not expect heat advisory thresholds to be met. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday...Pattern changes occur Tuesday as a trough digs along the east coast driving a cold front into the Carolinas. This front will be accompanied by good chances for showers and tstms Tue/Wed as it crawls southward before dissipating on Thursday. This dissipating is cause by the parent trough pushing off to the east, allowing for mid-level ridge to re-blossom into the Mid-Atlantic. The ECM/CMC stall this front longer with better convective chances as the trough is slower to eject to the east, but the GFS has ensemble support and its solution is more represented by WPC and the inherited grids, so will continue to hedge towards a warmer/drier solution late in the week and into the weekend. Convective chances will drop back to seasonable or slightly below, with temps right around climo Fri/Sat, after a period of around or slightly below normal temps with higher POP the first half of the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z...All the near term guidance, RAP, WRF and HRRR indicate scattered convection to occur along the sea breeze. Elsewhere, tstorm coverage will be isolated. As a result, have included tempo groupings for tstorms along the coastal terminals thru early this evening. Inland terminals will remain VCTS unless coverage increases. The sea breeze will be slow to progress inland as evidenced at MYR and CRE with latest winds still w to nw and temps in the upper 90s. In the wake of the sea breeze, the coastal terminals will see winds back to ssw at 10 to 15 kt whereas elsewhere, winds will run wsw to sw at 10 to 15 with g20 kt. Convection will taper by mid-evening across all sites. A low level jet will likely keep winds active all night at the sfc, ie. sw at 5 to 10 kt, in turn keeping fog development at bay. For Sunday, convection will likely begin to re-fire by late morning. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection each day may result in localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Each morning may also observe brief MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low ceilings. Otherwise, expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 PM Saturday...The Piedmont trough will help to keep a rather tight pressure gradient in place this eve. Low-level jetting should help to keep wind speeds elevated for at least part of the late night. Expect SW winds to be sustained at up to 15 to 20 kt. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Similar pattern will continue with Bermuda High and Piedmont trough dominating the weather and maintaining a SW flow over the waters. By Monday a cold front will drop into the Carolinas but will make slow progress toward the local waters but should see a veering of wind, becoming more westerly by Monday night into early Tues. A tightened gradient Mon night will produce an increase in SW winds up to 15 to 20 kts and push seas up to 4 to 5 ft in outer waters. Otherwise seas will remain in the 2 to 4 ft range through the period. You can also expect a better chc of thunderstorms over the waters, especially Mon. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday...A cold front will cross the waters during Tuesday turning winds slowly from SW at 10-15 kts, to NW at 5-10 kts Tuesday night. This front will dissipate on Wednesday leaving a diffuse pressure gradient as high pressure re-expands slowly from the Atlantic. This will bring mostly East to SE winds Wed/Thu, at speeds around 10 kts. Seas will be highest on Tuesday, 3-4 ft, as the SW winds and residual SE swell drive an amplified spectrum. Behind the cold front, as the winds ease and become variable, the wind wave will shift to the E/NE on top of the residual SE swell, but seas fall to around 2 ft the latter half of the period.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH

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