Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270543 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 143 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate into Sunday, bringing mostly dry weather and increasing heat. A cold front approaching from the north may bring late day thunderstorms to portions of the area Sunday. This front will then linger in the area for much of next week, keeping the weather unsettled. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 930 PM Friday...Via latest sat imagery trends, thin cirrus will move overhead during the overnight period. The sfc pressure pattern and somewhat relaxed pg will result in WSW winds at 5 mph or less inland and 5 to 10 mph along the immediate coast. With a pinned sea breeze today, hier dewpoints were unable to advect inland. Add the light WSW winds fcst overnight and you have minimal if any at all, fog development. Have tweaked overnight lows by a degree or 2 due to clear skies with some protected locations from the WSW winds and away from the immediate coast seeing temps drop to around 60 degrees. Previous...................................................... As of 300 PM Friday...Surface high pressure was centered to our south with ridge axis to our W and this high will remain at the helm through Saturday. This ridge will get flattened as a shortwave trough moves through the Great lakes and Mid-West, thus allowing the flow aloft across the eastern Carolinas to become a little more zonal tonight. Except for some thin cirrus overnight, skies will be clear as winds quickly diminish this eve. Dewpoint recovery will also occur quickly this eve and we expect lows to be a category or so higher tonight as compared to last night, mainly lower to mid 60s with some upper 60s at the beaches. Deep westerly flow in place on Sat. A Thunderstorm cluster is expected to develop upstream of the central/southern Appalachians during the afternoon. The flow should take this convection eastward, keeping it to our NW through the daylight hours of Sat. Deep westerly flow and rising 850 mb temps point to higher temps on Sat with still manageable humidity levels although dewpoints will be a good 10 degrees higher Sat afternoon as compared to this afternoon. Highs on Sat will be in the low 90s. The seabreeze will once again be pinned rather near the immediate coast, making its greatest inland advancement across Brunswick County during the afternoon. Beach temps will be in the lower to mid 80s. A breezy SW wind is expected on Sat, 15 to 25 mph. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Somewhat of an active period as the convergence of a split flow at the mid levels over the Tennessee Valley keeps a parade of shortwaves moving through the area. At the surface a baroclinic zone will be aligned in close proximity to the mid level pattern with an east/west boundary draped along the Tennessee/Virginia border. The first shortwave moves through late Saturday evening and with the consistency of the GFS, I have increased pops for a few hours. There will be a 12-18 hour lull in activity through Sunday afternoon before another stronger wave moves across. I have tweaked pops to show Sunday morning mostly dry with the pops relegated to more of an afternoon/evening scenario. There is some severe potential with the activity so please refer to the Storm Prediction Center`s Day 2 and 3 Convective Outlooks. Warm temperatures will continue with a down slope/west to northwesterly flow aloft with highs a couple of degrees either side of 90 and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Primary headline for the extended forecast period is `unsettled`, as a low-amplitude but broad upper trough translates slowly east across New England and the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Near the base of the trough, phasing impulses from the southern jet stream over top the Gulf ridge will allow a series of whisking disturbances to bring TSTM chances much of the upcoming week when coupled with late May and early June heating and an active afternoon sea breeze boundary. Temperatures however will remain slightly above normal as the thermal influence is exerted more by the Gulf and SE states upper ridge. No shortage of column mositure or dry mid level caps to impede convection with PWAT values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches next week, so what convection does form will be capable of dumping good rain amounts. Storm motion generally will be from west to east, so all locations will have a good chance of rainfall and TSTMS at one point during the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period but isolated showers and tstms are possible late. High pressure elongated across the Gulf Coast will ridge into the area through today maintaining dry weather and VFR, although increasing high level cirrus is expected. The biggest concern today will be increasing winds from the SW, and a locally backed sea breeze at the coastal terminals. Wind speeds of 10-15 kts are expected this aftn, with gusts of 20-25 kts likely, highest at MYR/CRE. These winds will ease after dark, becoming SW at 5-10 kts Saturday night. A mid-level shortwave will ride atop the ridge late in the period, trying to suppress it enough to create scattered showers and tstms. At this time, most of this activity is forecast to remain north of the area, but increasing mid-level cloudiness is forecast at all terminals, with some isolated convection possible, especially at LBT/ILM, just beyond this valid period. Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible late Saturday night for LBT and ILM terminals due to thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR conditions possible all terminals in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun Evening, and again late Mon Night through Tue.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 915 PM Friday...SW-WSW winds around 15 kt will drop to a range of 10 to 15 kt overnight. Current seas are running higher than the fcst as well as various guidance. Have upped current seas by 1 to 2 ft based on latest local buoys ie. 41008. This a result of the modest WSW to SW winds. The resulting short period significant seas off Cape Fear south to Little River Inlet will run hier than what Wavewatch3 produces and even SWAN if the hier local winds are not input. Previous................................................... As of 300 PM Friday...The approach of the new moon and perigee will increase the tidal ranges and this will bring higher high tides and lower low tides through the weekend. Abnormally low water levels will quickly recover for the remainder of the afternoon. The seabreeze will keep SW winds in the 15 to 20 kt range into this eve, highest across the near shore waters. As the boundary dissipates later this eve and overnight, wind speeds will diminish to 10 to 15 kt and the direction will back to westerly. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft. We expect winds and seas to be similarly driven by a healthy seabreeze on Saturday with the strongest winds, up to 15 to 20 kt in association with the afternoon and eve seabreeze circulation. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Expect a mostly southwest and fairly brisk flow at times through the period. There may be a brief interval of westerly winds in the wake of shortwaves both early Sunday and Monday. Speeds will be 15-20 knots initially with a good low level jet and back off a bit for Sunday and early Monday with more of a 10- 15 knot range. Significant seas will mostly be 2-4 feet with a possibility of a few five footers early. The spectrum will lean more toward the lower end at the end of the period as well. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...SW winds this period 15 KT or less except higher afternoon gusts associated with an active sea breeze. Sea heights generally a 2-3 foot range this period, along with isolated to scattered inshore TSTMS mainly in the late afternoons and evening as storms push off land over the 0-20NM waters. Troughing inland may bring the highest winds of 15-20 KT sustained Wednesday. Mariners should get a radar update before heading out this period as there will be a chance of storms each day. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...JDW MARINE...

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