Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160056 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 756 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will shift off the coast this evening and high pressure will build in over the Carolinas for the weekend. With a southerly wind temperatures will rebound and move above average by Monday and Tuesday. Another cold front pushes across the region late Tuesday to drop temperatures back down again as high pressure returns through mid to late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 8 PM Friday...Cold front still wavering over the forecast area but latest guidance still has this feature getting kicked offshore overnight. Latest IR satellite loops show back edge of mainly mid-deck cloud cover associated with the font gradually dropping SE so total clearing by daybreak not out of the question. In any case, no precip is expected and forecast remains on track with another chilly night in store. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows: Frontal wave moving up into the Outer Banks. This has dragged the trailing front back to the north of the region and allowed the mid level cloud deck to fill in. Forecast soundings continue to show dry air outside of this layer so still not expecting any rain. The front will push back through to the south this evening leading to a fairly deep layer veer to NW flow. This should lead to a rapid clearing trend from NW to SE. Lows tonight will bottom out in the low 30s NW to upper 30s far southern zones. Highs tomorrow will have trouble exceeding 55 in the new, cooler airmass behind the front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Friday...A short-wave, in a deamplifying phase, will eject across the Red River Valley of Texas Saturday night, gradually becoming absorbed in WSW flow on approach to the Appalachian Virginias Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Carolinas Saturday night, will slip offshore by Sunday evening. These features will team, to produce a sensible weather trend of warm air advection Sunday, potentially resulting in 16-19 degree F minimum temperature differences Sunday daybreak versus daybreak Monday, along with a slight chance of a light rain shower very late Sunday into early Monday. Moisture associated with the weakening short-wave, will nearly saturate the 925-700 l and bringing the upper- level energy across the region.ayer late Sunday night and a few sprinkles or light rain showers generated by weak support aloft cannot be ruled out entirely into early Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Friday...On Monday the 12 UTC runs of the ECMWF and GFS are showing a trough/cutoff low south of the 4 corners area of the great southwest. The models begin to diverge and by Tuesday the GFS is faster pulling the cutoff low to the east. By Wednesday morning the GFS has dissipated this wave and it has this feature accelerating to the east coast in the zonal flow. The ECMWF still has a cutoff over the Oklahoma and Arkansas border and the model weakens and dissipates this features as if has moves off the east coast. Therefore confidence in the extended forecast is not high. The GFS models continue to show a warming trend through Tuesday before moving a cold front through the area between Tuesday and Wednesday and bringing down a shot of cooler temperatures, but the ECMWF keeps the shot of colder air farther north. So the forecast will side with the model blend and this will bring in cooler temperatures for Wednesday. Rainfall chances looks to be the best on Monday into Tuesday with the favoring of the GFS solution stronger southern energy out of the southwest and pulling the cutoff low out quicker. With the the west-southwest flow remaining over the region expect to see small chances of rain Wednesday through Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 23Z...High confidence of VFR through the TAF period. Mid to high levels clouds will continue to stream across the area along a frontal boundary that has been draped across the region the past 23 hours or so. Surface winds will become light north around 3 kt with mid clouds decreasing. After sunrise winds will be light NW-NE becoming SW by the end of the TAF valid period with clods dissipating and giving way to clear skies as the front finally sags to the SE. Extended Outlook...VFR. VFR tempo MVFR/SHRA Monday through Tuesday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 8 PM Friday...Cold front still has yet to move offshore so winds remain at 10 to 15 kts from the SW. Still expect the front will get kicked east of the waters overnight, with winds turning NW and finally N by daybreak. Seas still in the 2 to 4 ft range. Do not expect any headlines during this period. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows: W to SW prefrontal flow regime has relaxed near shore as the front has retrograded. This boundary will push back through this evening turning winds to the NW and adding some gustiness but expect wind and seas to remain below any advisory or headline thresholds. Such winds will last into Saturday morning but the remainder of Saturday will see high pressure build in and much lighter if not variable wind flow. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...A welcoming and pleasant marine environment for this period, with high pressure nearly overhead of the waters Saturday night, slipping offshore of the 0-20 NM zones by Sunday evening. As a result, winds will become light and variable Saturday night, then S-SW Sunday, 12 kt or less. Sunday night as the high offshore slips farther SE, winds will trend to W early Monday up to 15 KT, as the pressure gradient tightens a bit. Still, with offshore flow, seas will not be problematic. Light to glass conditions Saturday night will see perhaps a lazy 10 second E swell around a foot. Into Sunday night, SW-W wind chop will pick up a little bit. Dry this period, except perhaps a sprinkle late Sunday and early Monday, but no visibility restrictions are expected. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday..An unsettled period for the marine forecast with west to southwest flow on Monday into Tuesday with a cold front pushing across the waters later Tuesday into Wednesday. Will have to watch if small craft conditions develop after the cold frontal passage but otherwise expect seas of 2 to 4 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...REK/MBB SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...MAC MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/DRH

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