Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031142 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 742 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY. THAT SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...REMOTE THOUGH IT MAY HAVE BEEN...UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION UP NORTH MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG...BUT AT 5 TO 10 KTS ARE CREATING A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION STILL TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SCRAPE PENDER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY. PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS TODAY AND ALSO EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WITH P/W VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. INITIAL FOCUS OF CONVECTION...FOR LACK OF AN OTHER STRONG TRIGGERS...WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK AT AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS PROJECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST- WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5 TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN 500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MVFR VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR BY 13Z. OTHERWISE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE VFR THROUGH 18Z. ANY POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NW-E OF KILM AND WELL S OF KMYR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT W-NW THIS MORNING...BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LOCATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG A PINNED SEA BREEZE...ALONG AND N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING LYING ROUGHLY S OF KILM TO NEAR KLBT...AND ALONG A WEAK FRONT N OF KLBT/KILM. STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NW THUS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BE AFFECTED BY ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW... AND UPDATE TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS IF NEEDED AT 18Z. WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH LACK OF HEATING THINK THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR ESPECIALLY IF RAIN OCCURS TODAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TODAY...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT DURING MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...JDW/SRP AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/SRP

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