Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221041 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 640 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY...STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING ON WET TO SATURATED SOILS. ALSO...SEVERAL CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND FAST AND WILL NOT BE READILY CAPABLE OF ACCOMMODATING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND MAY CLOSE OFF THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. MEANTIME AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO EXPAND WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG TROUGH. AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD...PUSHING TROUGH FURTHER INLAND...EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OFFSHORE TO BACK INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING OR TOPPING 2.25 INCHES. THIS IS AS HIGH OR HIGHER THAN ON MONDAY. STORM MOTIONS ARE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. THE FLOOD RISK WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ON MON. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION THAT TRAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING IN EXCESS OF 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. COMMUNITIES THAT RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF URBAN AREAS. THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS WILL BE WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED ON MON. OTHERWISE THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM...LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY LIFT WHILE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS... DISSIPATES. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD AGAIN HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY AND AS COOL AS THE LOWER 80S WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST PERSISTENT. RAIN COOLED AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 70S AND MAY REMAIN THERE UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECLINE IN THE EVE WITH A TENDENCY TO SHIFT OR REDEVELOP OFFSHORE...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WED AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY AND A DEEP SW FLOW WILL VEER BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MID LEVEL DRYING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVER THE WATERS WHERE PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE MAXED OUT AROUND 2.3 INCHES WED AFTN. EXPECT MORE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ON WED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTN AND THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND HELP STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WATERS. BY THURS FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS LOOK FASTER WITH THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY THURS NIGHT. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT DRIER WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES. NAM AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONT SHIFTING IT SOUTH OF AREA BY FRI MORNING WHILE THE GFS HANGS IT UP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE H5 TROUGH LIFTS NORTH. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ON THURS AHEAD OF FRONT INLAND INITIALLY AND THEN SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES. TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WED. TEMPS MAY LOWER THURS AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS AND PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND PCP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S...IN A CLOUDIER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MAY BE HUNG UP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FRI MORNING BUT NAM WANTS TO PUSH IT SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL GET TOO FAR SOUTH AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS NORTH LEAVING A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAINTAINING MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT AND NOT GIVING MUCH OF PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRI. DEEP SW FLOW WILL KEEP A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA LEAVING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES COME MONDAY PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LATER ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST LEAVING A FLOW RUNNING MORE PARALLEL TO FRONT AND NOT GIVING IT TOO STRONG OF A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THEREFORE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. OVERALL EXPECT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLY FRI AND AGAIN MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUES...BUT EXPECT MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TYPE SHWR ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT INTO INLAND AREAS ON FRI AND ON TUES BEHIND FRONTS...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BASICALLY BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S AND DAY TIME HIGHS INTO THE 90S MOST DAYS WITH LOWER TEMPS EXPECTED. AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THURS INTO FRI AND AGAIN MON INTO TUES MAY SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN LOWERED H5 HEIGHTS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT IFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT AND MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE SATURATED COLUMN AND ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR...BUT IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE OUR INLAND TERMINALS. THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH NEARING KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THESE SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING...WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/TEMPO IFR IN CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME STRAY SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND MAY CLOSE OFF AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THE DIRECTION WILL BE SSE TO S TODAY...VEERING TO SW TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING WINDS. A 6 TO 8 SECOND SE SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING WIND ENERGY TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A S-SW RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURS WITH WINDS POSSIBLY MAKING IT UP TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ON WED INTO THURS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE THURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT WNA MODEL REMAINS CONSISTENT KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT REACHES INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY FRI BUT WILL MOST LIKELY STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER INLAND CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TO MAINTAIN A SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENING AS GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE CAROLINAS. SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT EARLY FRI WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD/BJR

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