Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221807 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 207 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...SUNNY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE A CLOUD OR TWO OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR INTRUSIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER SUNSET.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER OFF SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RAN

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