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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 240823
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. BRIGHT LATE APRIL SUNSHINE WILL GO TO
WORK ON TEMPS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE DAY WELL DOWN IN THE 40S. THE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AS SE TO
S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE STRONG FOR
FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WILL BEGIN MENTIONING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT FOG AT
KCRE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTH
WINDS AOB 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN RAISED WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER SHOULD NOTE KCRE HAD SOME MVFR/IFR FOG
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE CLOSE...BUT
VARYING RESTRICTIONS HAVE LEAD TO A LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/SGL