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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 010829
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TODAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
FORMING OFF THE COAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BEYOND. SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD ATTM...WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AND
PUSH OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS NORTH OF THE FA
TODAY...WITH IT QUICKLY LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE FA BY TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...THE SSE-S RETURN FLOW WILL BE LIGHT INTO THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD DENSE AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...THE BETTER WAA WILL OCCUR AT ALL LEVELS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS CF IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTENSIFYING LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND REDEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL S/W TROF TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW. THE EASTWARD
MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE
MON. WITH BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAPPED WELL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TO
REMAIN FAR TOO MILD FOR ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PCPN ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
DROP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT AS THE WAA ENGULFS THE FA OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY EITHER HOLD STEADY OR LIKELY CLIMB DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM NOW MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES ACROSS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH A VERY BREEZY AND COLD TWELVE HOURS OR SO.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MAV HAS 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR 21 UTC
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN WILMINGTON. WE DONT SEE THESE VALUES SHOW UP
VERY MUCH OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE 50 DEGREES. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEUTRAL ADVECTION AT 850MB BUT A SECONDARY VORT WILL ALLOW COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROBLEMATIC SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS TO SHEAR OUT THE
SHORTWAVE AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. I HAVE ONCE AGAIN DECREASED POPS INCREMENTALLY TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. IN FACT...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ANY POPS IN THE PERIOD MAY
BE RELEGATED TO THE STRONG TRAILING SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD.
A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION WILL CAUSE WINDS TO REMAIN CALM
THROUGH SUNRISE. HIGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWEST POSSIBLE CEILINGS AROUND 12K THROUGH
18Z. FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING...CEILINGS MAY DROP TO
NEAR MVFR LEVELS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT ALL LEVELS. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE LIQUID PCPN AHEAD OF IT WILL HAVE REACHED THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS ISSUANCE PERIOD.

WINDS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ALLOWING SE-S
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THE APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF
IT...WILL RESULT WITH INCREASING SSW-SW WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH WED. POSSIBLE RAIN THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WILL OBSERVE BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO START THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY.
CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...
ALLOWING LIGHT SE-S RETURN FLOW TO INITIALLY COMMENCE. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL DRAMATICALLY
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE LOOKING AT S-SSW
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...IE.MME AND MMG RESPECTIVELY
...GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY. ONLY CHANGE TO THE SCA WILL BE
TO COMMENCE IT AN HOUR EARLIER AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH WIND SPEEDS
FURTHER INCREASING DAYTIME MON...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS...THEY TOO WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST HEIGHTS THIS
MORNING AT 1 TO 2 FT. LOOK FOR THEM TO BUILD SLIGHTLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT. SIG SEAS WILL EXPLODE TO THE UPSIDE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY DAYBREAK MON. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL OUT THERE...THUS
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN
WAVES.


SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...IT WILL BE A ROUGH AND TUMBLE 12-18 HOURS FOR
THE MARINE COMMUNITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INITIALLY A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
STRONG FRONT THAT WILL STILL BE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL POWER ACROSS
AROUND MIDDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING. WITH DEEP
MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS UP TO
850MB...GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE GFS MARINE
BULLETIN FOR 41013 HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED GALES. I HAVE
RAISED A GALE WATCH FROM 1200 UTC MONDAY THROUGH 0600 UTC TUESDAY.
AS QUICKLY AS WINDS RAMP UP...THEY SEEMINGLY DROP AS QUICKLY AND BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE U.S. IRONICALLY ENOUGH...SEAS WONT BE THAT HIGH
CONSIDERING THE POWERFUL WINDS DUE TO THE CHANGEABLE NATURE OF THE
FETCH AND LACKING LONGEVITY. EXPECT 4-10 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET TUESDAY.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL
BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND THE DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
FIELDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. SEAS
INCREASE FROM 1-2 FEET EARLY TO 3-5 FEET LATER THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR