Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 271726
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1226 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017
Chilly temperatures this morning will quickly rebound this week
as a warm front lifts north, leading to near record high
temperatures by mid-week. A cold front will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday morning,
followed by a return to seasonable temperatures late week. Even
cooler temperatures are expected by the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Monday...No changes to the forecast this morning
other than to adjust hourly temperature grids slightly based on
trends. Expect a mostly sunny and warm day with some increase in
high cloudiness late.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...Primary headline is abnormal warmth this
period as we again approach or exceed 80 degrees Tuesday and
especially Wednesday, ahead of a moderately strong cold front.
Shower/TSTM chances remain low-end until Wednesday night into
early Thursday as convergence along the frontal passage sweeps
across the area. Rain amounts even then do not look substantial
and will put little if any dent in what looks to be a mounting
dryish albeit mild to warm late winter. Instability and moisture
parameters warrant isolated TSTMS Tuesday, and late Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...Cold front will be off the coast as the
period begins with strong cold advection underway. Showers may
linger in the area for the first part of Thu morning, especially
along the coast but any activity would be short lived. Canadian
high builds in from the northwest Thu into Fri under broad 5h
trough aloft. Reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Fri
afternoon, along with an increase in northwest winds and a drop
in relative humidity. The center of the surface high settles
over the area Sat morning, sliding just off the coast into Sun.
Pattern aloft transitions from broad troughing to flat flow,
which helps push the surface high off the coast Sun.
Temperatures near climo Thu and Fri will dip below climo Fri
night and Sat. Temperatures will bounce back to climo Sat night
as the return flow develops on the backside of the high.
Increasing southerly flow Sun combined with westerly flow aloft
will push temps several degrees above climo as the period ends.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 18Z...VFR conditions expected through the period. Ceilings
develop and lower this evening as a warm front moves across.
There may be a few showers as well but coverage does not warrant
mention in TAFS.
Extended Outlook...VFR, except showers and ISOLD TSTMS late WED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Monday...No changes to the coastal waters forecast
with the mid morning update. Previous discussion follows:
Manageable seas today, SE winds 10-15 KT
will produce a little chop with an underlying ESE wave train
every 8-9 seconds. Winds inshore will pick up late in the day
gusting to 18 KT at times with a slight sea breeze enhancement.
No TSTMS expected through tonight, but as a warm front lifts
across the waters tonight, mist or patchy drizzle and light rain
could reduce visibilities to less than 2-3 NM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...S-SW winds this period will gradually
increase, ramping up wind-waves, then Advisory conditions by
Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching moderately strong
cold front. Even Tuesday, with a vigorous afternoon sea breeze
expect gusts to 20 KT or better at times, and bumpy seas. 3 to 4
foot seas late Tuesday will build to 4 to 6 ft later in the day
Wednesday. Dominant wave periods of 5-7 seconds will make for
fairly steep wave faces. Isolated to scattered TSTMS late
Wednesday night and very early Thursday should be expected.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...Strong cold front will be either moving
across the waters or just east of the waters as the period
begins. Offshore flow will drop from a solid 15 kt in the
morning to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Weak offshore flow
continues Thu night into Fri before another surge of cold air
pushes across the waters Fri afternoon/evening. This surge will
push northwest flow to 15 to 20 kt with gusts approaching 25 kt.
Seas will trend down, from 3 to 6 ft Thu morning to 1 to 3 ft
Fri morning, as offshore flow decreases. Increasing winds later
Fri and Fri night will result in a slight bump in seas with
dominant wave becoming a short period wind wave.