Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 190323 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1123 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...KLTX AS WELL AS MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ILLUSTRATE THE RAIN COMPLETELY BLANKETING THE ILM CWA. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING ACROSS THE FA...WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG AND HORRY COUNTIES. THE SFC COASTAL TROF LIES NE-SW JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE ILM COASTAL CWA. THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE MENTIONED ILM CWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT WAS SOUTH OF THE COASTAL TROF THAT PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS TROF AND THEN ONSHORE WHERE INSTABILITY LACKED TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...THIS CONVECTIVE PCPN TRANSITIONED INTO STRATIFORM MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH ALL THIS SAID...LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE 1ST HALF OF SATURDAY. HIGH TIDE LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT. VIA CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...THE ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED BY CHS...WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE ILM CWA. IT IS PROGGED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT REACHES THE ILM CWA DURING THIS LATE EVENING THROUGH THE SAT PRE-DAWN HOURS. AS A RESULT... HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR DOWNTOWN ILM AND PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR SOUTH OF SNOWS CUT RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. HOWEVER...LIKE PREVIOUSLY SAID ...LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER PCPN TO ARRIVE MUCH LATER THEN THE HIGH TIDE OCCURRENCE LATE THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE MASSAGING NEEDED TO THE DOWNSIDE. VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA...A NE-ENE 30 TO 40 KT WIND WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE DECK OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY GET CARRIED TO THE SFC AS WIND GUSTS OR BY FURTHER INCREASING SUSTAINED VALUES. AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED WINDS UPWARDS ACROSS THE CWA ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY ONSHORE. WITH THE COASTAL TROF REMAINING OFFSHORE...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE 40S THE FURTHER INLAND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION........................................... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY MORNING WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST. DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...BUT WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE. WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAIN SHIELD IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING AS STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...BEGINNING WITH KFLO... KMYR AND KCRE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD... KILM/KLBT SHOULD DROP TO IFR BY 06Z. EXPECT CONSTANT -RA/RA TONIGHT WITH TEMPO +RA LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS CIGS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1KFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTN...MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT IF IT OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS WARM FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF PM FRIDAY...NE-ENE WINDS REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. A TIGHTENED SFC PG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...AND THE 40+ KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A NE WIND AT 15-25 KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. STRONGLY WORDED SCA REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL HAVE TO ONCE AGAIN WATCH FOR FUTURE CONDITIONS THAT MAY REQUIRE GALES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HOLD RELATIVELY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE WITH SEAS APPROACHING 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND ALSO OFF CAPE ROMAIN. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 6 TO 7 SECONDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................. AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MODEST...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN 10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25 KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...BJR MARINE...

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