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479
FXUS62 KILM 111041
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
641 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today.
Rain chances may decrease slightly for the weekend, but
afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a fixture into the
end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Lowered POPs slightly this morning keeping low chances at the
coast. Fog is present inland pretty much around and west of
I-95 and it should clear up through the morning. Updated 12Z
aviation below.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some low clouds and patchy fog could be around, especially inland,
towards daybreak. These should clear up after sunrise where we`ll
have a more typical summer day. Activity should be focused along the
sea breeze and gradually shift inland where there could also be some
activity moving in from the Piedmont. Best rain chances for the day
will be near the coast and anticipated coverage of showers/storms
will be scattered. Severe weather is not expected but with the
amount of instability due to the warm/humid airmass some storms
could become strong with gusty winds. Flooding will be possible due
to the lack of any major steering flow causing slow moving, heavy
rain-bringing showers and storms. Highs near 90, lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weekend environment remains primed for afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. Abundant, deep moisture in place with
precipitable water AOA 2 inches while the Piedmont trough and sea
breeze will both act as triggers. In addition SBCAPE will be around
2500 J/kg, enough to kick off storms on its own. The only thing
really lacking is mid-level support. No real shortwave energy with a
weak 5h trough off the East Coast and a 5h ridge building over the
Deep South. Not confident coverage will be more than mid to high
chance, although the current forecast has pockets of likely around.
Time will tell, but the lack of any mid-level forcing, which has
been key to activity across the Southeast the last few days, does
make one wonder if the rain chances in the NBM are a bit overdone.
Temperatures around normal during the day with lows running a few
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled week ahead with Bermuda High and stalled front/Piedmont
trough the theme. Weak ridging aloft Mon is shifted farther west Tue
and a weakness in the 5h ridge develops over the Southeast. This
weakness along with the Piedmont trough, sea breeze, and diurnal
instability contribute to daily showers and thunderstorms. Coverage
will be more than is typical in the summer with potential for a
likely pop everyday. Deep moisture lingers through next week with
precipitable water over 2 inches, exceeding 2.3" at times. The only
surface feature of note is a cold front moving in from the northwest
later Mon into Tue which then stalls in the area. This is likely to
provide a bump in rain chances early next week. The deep moisture,
increased coverage and storm motion under 10 mph Mon-Wed does set
the stage for period of heavy rain. Hard to pinpoint any one day as
favored for flooding, but will be something to watch. Highs above
normal Mon drop below normal Tue-Thu with increased cloud cover and
precipitation limiting heating. Lows above normal continue.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR to IFR levels of fog are popping up at our inland terminals
here and there with low stratus being the more major issue, so
have kept that in the TAFs through 14Z while it burns off with
sunrise. Clouds may scatter out before then, but am being more
on the pessimistic side in case they don`t. Into the afternoon
we`ll deal more with our typical scattered thunderstorm setup
with the sea breeze, have tried to put prevailing and more
details for coastal terminals where confidence is higher on
better coverage. Main issue will be lowered VSBYs in heavy rain.
Activity will then migrate towards inland terminals more in the
evening before we start to clear out tonight. Stratus will again
be the main focus for tonight with threats of MVFR and IFR
possible at all terminals but it may be more likely at coastal
terminals this time around. Too uncertain to know at this point.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early
morning fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
W winds will become more SW with the sea breeze this afternoon,
increasing to ~15 kts. Seas generally 2-4 ft with a SW wind
wave at 4-5 seconds and SE 2-3 ft swell at 7-8 seconds.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible over the waters
with a slight increase in coverage with the afternoon sea breeze
at the coast.

Saturday through Tuesday...
Southwest flow around west side of Bermuda High continues
through the weekend before flow becomes more variable and drops
under 10 kt as weak front moves into the area. Speeds may
briefly hit 15 kt Sat before winds drop for the start of next
week. Seas around 3 ft Sat drop to 2-3 ft Sun and 2 ft or less
Mon/Tue. The dominant wave will be a longer period southerly
wind wave, 6-7 seconds, with an easterly swell also present.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...III/LEW