Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291440 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 930 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO NEW YEARS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MILD AND WET WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM JUST SOUTH OF ILM TO CPC AND KFLO WITH NRLY WINDS SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY IS EASILY DISCERNIBLE NOT ONLY IN WIND SHIFT OBS BUT ALSO THE AREAS WHERE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNDERCUTTING WEDGE BEGINS TO BLOSSOM. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWING THE DISSIPATING SEA FOG WITH SUT REALLY THE ONLY PLACE LEFT INDICATED COMPROMISED VSBY AND CIG. SREF VSBY FORECASTS HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL AND SUGGEST THAT ALL AREAS NEARLY CLEAR BY 15Z. AT THIS RATE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE LITTLE, IF ANY. AS OF 544 AM MONDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSTED ALONG THE COAST S OF CAPE FEAR INCLUDING WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES AS 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES SETTLE IN. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ALSO EFFECTIVE FROM MURRELLS INLET SOUTHWARD. MILD AIR RICH IN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STAGNATE IN THE WEAK WARM SECTOR AND PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG IS ADDING TO THE MIX IN A WEAK ONSHORE WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHERWISE AT THIS TIME ASIDE FROM FINE TUNING T/TD/POP VALUES. UPPER SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS FAVORED W OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN TIME THIS FOCUS WILL SHIFT S AND E TOWARD THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS NC WILL MOVE SSE THROUGH SE NC THIS MORNING AND NE SC THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SLIP BENEATH MOIST AND MILD SW FLOW...LIKELY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL -DZ/-RA/FG ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW NO GUARANTEE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL OVER-RUNNING AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS REMAIN WEST ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT. GRADUALLY THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL SHIFT S AND E TO THE COAST AND SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW WILL HELP TRIP OFF INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA AND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR INTERIOR SE NC...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE REALIZED EARLY IN THE DAY AS COOLING AND LOW CLOUDS SETTLE IN...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL THROUGH MORNING. WHILE NO SIMPLE TASK...ESSENTIALLY EXPECTING MAXIMUMS OF UPPER 50S NORTHERN SE NC INTERIOR AND LOW/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. INTERIOR PARTS OF WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES COULD REACH NEAR 70 AS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE AND BEYOND THE DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMUM...AROUND 60 AT THE BEACHES TODAY. LINGERING SHORT WAVE ENERGY SUSTAINS -RA CHANCES OVERNIGHT DWINDLING FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUMS AT DAYBREAK WIDESPREAD 40S...50 SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. I HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY TUESDAY AND OVERCAST SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AS LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A DAY OR SO ON DEVELOPING A HYBRID WEDGE SCENARIO OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO THE EAST. FORCING CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS RATHER WEAK AND WITH MOISTURE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE WEDGE IS SCOURED OUT SATURDAY AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES RISE APPRECIABLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS AROUND 50 AS MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RANGES. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT BETWEEN KLBT AND KFLO EXTENDING EAST TO JUST N OF KILM WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TERMINALS...PASSING KCRE/KMYR AROUND 19Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CIGS 1-3K ARE LIKELY. THE EXCEPTION IS SEA FOG WITH CIG/VSBYS AOB 200 AND 1/2SM AT KCRE/KMYR. THIS SEA FOG POTENTIALLY MAY MOT LIFT UNTIL 16Z UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. EVEN IF IMPROVEMENT OCCURS IT WILL BE TEMPORARY AS POST FRONTAL CIGS AOB 600-700 FEET APPEAR LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IS DECREASING THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS OUT. THIS SHOULD LEAVE ONLY PERIODS OF RAIN SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FROPA. CIGS MAY LIFT TO 700-1000 FEET AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO VERY SATURATED LOW LEVELS. CIGS AOB 500 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CIGS TUE MORNING WILL BECOME MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR WED/THU. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR OVERNIGHT FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM MONDAY...SEA FOG FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED/FORECAST BY SREF VSBY PRODUCT AND THE ADVISORY WAS DROPPED AT ITS NORMAL TIME. EARLY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOLID NE ADVECTION AND SHRINKING IN SIZE AND EXPECT LITTLE TO NONE TO REMAIN BY 15Z-1530Z. COLD FRONT NOW INTO THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AM250. IT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MEANING SOUTHERN ZONES MAY TAKE TIL EVENING TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT DUE TO SUCH GRADUAL VEERING. ANY INCREASE IN WIND SPEED WILL BE MINOR AND LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO LACK OF ANY COOL SURGE AND ALSO POOR VERTICAL ALIGNMENT OF THE FLOW AS THE SURFACE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH A PERIOD OF 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN SEAS MAY ECLIPSE THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SWAN RUN. WILL CERTAINLY SEE 3-5 FEET AND MAYBE 4-6 FEET. PRIOR TO AND AFTER SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY. THIS MEANS A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER...MOST OF THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ039- 054>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ110. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK/MJC NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR

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