Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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114 FXUS62 KILM 240107 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 807 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of the area, and low pressure passing offshore overnight into Friday, will bring cool conditions along with occasional light rain and drizzle near the coast. A dry cold front will cross the coast Saturday night followed by cool and dry Canadian high pressure through early next week. A warming trend will follow through mid-week, as high pressure moves offshore, and low pressure approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 815 PM Thursday...A 500 mb shortwave trough is located across the eastern Carolinas roughly along the back edge of the dense cirrus canopy that covers the coastal Southeast. This feature will slowly move offshore over the next 12 hours. The strongest winds are on the front (east)side of the upper trough, meaning the feature should be weakening and lifting out with time. At the surface the front extends across central Florida then offshore of the Carolina coastline by a few hundred miles. Several areas of low pressure will develop and move northeastward along this front overnight into Friday, but with the eastward movement of the upper system the moisture we have aloft should become more meager with time. Skies will clear out for the I-95 corridor overnight, however cirrus and also mid- level cloudiness will continue along the coast. Light rain has been awfully persistent just west of Georgetown, SC all evening, but this should decay in the next couple of hours, with only the immediate coast as far north as Southport and Carolina Beach having any real potential of seeing rain overnight. No significant change has been made to forecast low temperatures, still anticipated to reach the mid to upper 30s inland and lower 40s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 228 PM Thursday...in the mid and upper levels the trough moves off the coast and several spokes of short-wave energy approaches from the west-northwest Saturday afternoon into the overnight. There is very little lift shown as most of the energy stay in Virginia and northward. Moisture is limited so only scattered clouds are expected through this period. Both of the 12 UTC global models, GFS and ECMWF, concur on no precipitation option. Lows on Friday night are expected to range from the middle 30s inland to the lower 40s at the beaches. On Saturday night lows are expected to be a few degrees warmer. The highs on Saturday are expected to be in the middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 228 PM Thursday...Intrusion of Canadian high pressure to dominate the first half of the extended period, with dry north breezes Sunday as the high barges in from the west, remaining exceptionally dry through Monday, although winds do ease Monday as the surface high centers over the area. Monday morning will be the chilliest portion of this period, with widespread 30s and sub-freezing air over parts of the interior. Tuesday through Thursday look for warming to trend, as return wind flow becomes established, and gradual amplification of a short-wave ridge over the area mid-week, as an upper low migrates eastward across the mid-Mississippi Valley. The moisture return will bring slight rain chances WED/THU days 6/7. No Arctic air or severe weather signatures noted on the horizon at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 00Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period. A weak and fast moving system moving offshore may bring a sprinkle or two to the coast the next few hours but it shouldn`t impact aviation concerns. The moisture along the coast will gradually move off during the day Friday. Extended Outlook...Possible showers along the coast Saturday night, otherwise VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 815 PM Thursday...A front stalled a few hundred miles off the Carolina coast will have several weak areas of low pressure develop and move northward overnight into Friday. Each of these lows will tighten up the pressure gradient for a time, with winds surging to 20 knots and perhaps gusts to 25 knots. Seas currently are measured at 4 feet nearshore and 6 feet at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy offshore. While we do not anticipate Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop tonight, conditions may worsen Friday morning as the next wave of low pressure ripples by, and for this reason we will maintain the Small Craft Advisory. Areas of light rain will continue into early Friday morning before dissipating late. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 228 PM Thursday...high pressure will give way to a cold front that will cross the waters near sunrise Saturday morning and shift east and south of the waters by Saturday night. This front will not be particularly strong. No precipitation is expected. The winds on Saturday night will be from the northeast at 15 knots then with frontal passage the winds will back to the west at 10 to 15 knots. As the high builds in the wind will veer back to the north at 15 to 20 knots late Saturday Night. Seas will range from 2 to 3 feet near shore Friday night to 4 to 5 feet at 20 miles off the coast. On Saturday the seas will drop only slightly to the 2 to 4 foot range. An increase to 3 to 5 feet between 10 to 20 miles off the coast is possible as a cold surge works it way south very late Saturday night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 228 PM Thursday...The extended marine forecast is one of improving conditions, as Sunday begins blustery in N wind as Canadian high pressure builds toward the coast. Following this however, a vast improvement, as winds ease and Monday into Tuesday, with light windspeeds. As a result, a notable easing trend in sea heights as well, with 3-4 foot seas Sunday, slowly subsiding to 1-2 feet into Tuesday. An `Exercise Caution` flag cannot be ruled out entirely Sunday, but afterward, manageable marine conditions appear on tap. No TSTMS expected on the 0-20 NM waters this period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...SHK

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