Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221916 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO REGION AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURNING TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA AND A SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST AS CUMULUS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE. WINDS ARE NOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND AFTER SUNSET THE SKIES WILL CLEAR. WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...H5 TROUGH EXITING NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFF THE COAST OF DELMARVA. ONSHORE WIND EACH DAY WILL HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BACK EACH DAY...WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL EACH NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND STATIONS. NO POPS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE H85-5 LAYER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF THE FEATURE BREAKING DOWN VERY LATE BUT WITH WEAK TROUGHING UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AS WELL. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON A DIURNAL BASIS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT EVEN THIS SEEMS A STRETCH. WARMING WILL BE SLOW ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF 65 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...SOME VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT...WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS SCATTERING BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AROUND THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DROP SOME PLACES IN THE LOWER 50S. VFR SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE MARINE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THIS WIND DIRECTION IS PART OF THE SEA BREEZE. FARTHER OFFSHORE...THE FRYING PAN BUOY IS STILL SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 4 FEET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THE SEAS WILL SETTLE OUT AT 2 TO 3 FEET. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS OF NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST SC. THE HIGH WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT INSHORE TO 3-4 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE EACH DAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FULL FLEDGED SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOONS COURTESY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACCELERATION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY MATCH THE WINDS WITH 2- 3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL/HAWKINS

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