-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 080226
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
926 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END AND STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 9:30 PM FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR THE NIGHT AND
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. STILL TRYING TO ASSESS FOG POTENTIAL
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

SKIES WILL PROBABLY BECOME CLEAR BETWEEN 05-08Z...WITH A THIN
LAYER OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE POTENTIALLY CREATING PATCHES OF LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...OR FOG IF WINDS CAN DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY.
FOR NOW I AM CONFINING FOG POTENTIAL TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR VERY
LATE TONIGHT... AS THIS REGION WILL HAVE THE LOWEST SHEAR WITHIN
THE SURFACE-1000 FT LAYER AND THEREFORE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. LOWS SHOULD FALL VERY NEAR FREEZING INLAND...WITH MID TO
UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN AND BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS CENTER OF HIGH REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS AND GRADIENT RELAXES ON SAT. OVERALL
EXPECT A DEEP DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW TO
HELP SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO BE
PLENTIFUL SATURDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL HELP TO KICK TEMPS BACK UP TO NORMAL...MID 60S MOST PLACES.
THE WESTERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHTENING...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SEA
BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE COOL SHELF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE BEACHES.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A
STRETCHED OUT W-E ORIENTED SHORTWAVE STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA SUN
NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
IT AND VEER AROUND TO THE NW BEHIND IT BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH OF AN
EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CLOUDS. OVERALL
EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH LIGHT W FLOW. SHOULD
SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND SHORTWAVE BUT
OTHERWISE NO POPS IN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD
AS SPRING FINALLY MAKES AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. 5H
PATTERN BECOMES RATHER FLAT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK AS
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN STREAM
RIDGE DRIVES A VORT STREAMER OVERHEAD. THIS HELPS REINFORCE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHICH SPREADS INCREASINGLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS ON RETURN FLOW. HIGHS MON/TUE WILL
LIKELY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW AND EVEN MID 70S
EXPECTED EARLY WEEK.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX WED/THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXITS FROM NORTH TEXAS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THANKS TO TWO DISTINCT MID-LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE OF WHICH RACES
ACROSS THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE OTHER DROPS INTO THE OH VLY. AT
THIS TIME...THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT
WILL TRAVERSE JUST NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS A LOCATION THAT
CAN SOMETIMES CREATE CONVECTION LOCALLY AS THE AREA GETS WARM
SECTORED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUITE WEAK WITH THIS EVENT...SO WILL KEEP WX-TYPE AS -RW INSTEAD
OF -TRW FOR NOW...BUT NOTE THAT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DOES
EXIST ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO THURSDAY...THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HANGS BEHIND AND SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND BASED OFF
THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL AMPLIFICATION EXPECT THE GFS IS A BETTER
FIT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC POP INTO THURSDAY UNTIL
MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AND TIMING...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS TEMPS CRASH TO WELL BELOW CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY. STILL A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND...HOWEVER DERIVED SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING
BY 03-04Z...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AFTER 06Z. LOOK FOR PRECIP TO
BE NEARLY GONE BY 01Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER 04Z. THIS POSES
A PROBLEM FOR FOG. WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AFTER 06Z. SATURDAY...A MUCH
NEEDED BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FAIRLY LIGHT
WEST NORTHWEST WIND. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GET WARM ENOUGH FOR A
RESULTANT TO SET UP...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL
WATERS. LATEST OBS SHOW NEAR-SHORE WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25
KTS...WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...QUIET WEEKEND AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 FT OR LESS BY AFTN. A WEAK FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT BACKING AND INCREASE IN WINDS ON
SUNDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND IT...
BUT OVERALL BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...CREATING W/SW
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LITTLE VARIATION.
WITHOUT ANY MEANINGFUL SWELL WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FT MONDAY...2-4 FT ON TUESDAY...WITH A W/SW
WIND CHOP THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE GROUP. LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
MOVE NW OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A PINCHED GRADIENT
AND SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
VEERING QUICKLY TO THE NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS WILL RISE BRIEFLY TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE RAPIDLY FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FT ON THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/RGZ