Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 052003 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 403 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING TO A SECONDARY WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPPER LOW FARTHER INLAND. STORMS WERE FIRING ALONG THIS TROUGH WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE CORES PRODUCING MAINLY SMALLER SIZE BUT LARGE QUANTITY OF HAIL. LATEST MSAS DEWPOINT AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOW THIS TROUGH NICELY WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTH AND WEST. MAINLY MORE ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN DRIER AIR RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD HAIL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATER INSTABILITY AND BETTER LIFT ALONG AND JUST TO NORTH AND EAST OF THIS TOUGH ALIGNED ALMOST TO THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR UP NORTH AND WEST TO TO MT OLIVE AND EXTENDING N-NW FROM THERE. THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRIER LOWER DEWPOINT AIR INLAND AND TO THE SW TO WORK ITS WAY TO THE NC COAST. DEWPOINT TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST SC WERE IN THE 40S MOST PLACES ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE RICHER DEWPOINT AIR WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST THROUGH TODAY...THE POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH. THIS EXTREME COLD POOL ALOFT...DROPPING TO -25 C...WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY AS HEATING OCCURS AT THE SFC...ALLOWING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SUCH COOL AIR ALOFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 6500 FT...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. ALSO THE INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...ABOVE 7K FT...WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE OVER THE ILM AREA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE INTO THIS EVE AND STRONGEST STORMS ALIGNED WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF CAPE FEAR.. THE SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. EXPECT SHWRS/TSMS TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...KEEPING MAINLY ISO IN SC AND SCT IN NC. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING DOWN AROUND 4C. THE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALLOW ALREADY COOL TEMPS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL NOT DROP OFF COMPLETELY AND THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. MOST PLACES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER CAPE HATTERAS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PAST BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT AND LAPSE RATES WILL STILL REMAIN STEEP. DO NOT EXPECT SAME ATMOSPHERE AS THURSDAY AS SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND BEST LIFT SHOULD BE LIFTING OFF WITH IT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE POTENT LOW REMAINS CLOSE. THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRI BUT WILL WARM TO THE MID OR UPPER 70S BY SAT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG SE RIDGING DEVELOPS. UPPER LOW PLAGUING THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY...AND WHILE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION...BLOSSOMING OF UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF COAST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPEDED ITS PROGRESS. GFS IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION (OPPOSITE OF YESTERDAY) WHILE THE ECM/CMC SHOW SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION AND WILL SHOW A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTH AND KEEP ANY POP CONFINED OUT OF THE CWA. THEREAFTER...HEAT RETURNS TO THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 15C AS THICKNESSES RISE AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...BUT MON-THU WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S...COOLER AT THE COAST. AS THIS HEAT INCREASES...HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW...AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS NOT EVIDENT ON THE LONG TERM SO NATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL MAINTAIN BARELY MENTIONABLE POP. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE VERY NEAR WILMINGTON HAS A LARGE COUNTERCLOCKWISE SWIRL OF WIND AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING IT. AS THIS LOW NUDGES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT ILM TO BECOME NW AND GUSTY. VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN AND NEAR SHOWERS WHERE 2500-3000 FOOT CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS POTENT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND DEPOSITS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SEA SURFACE. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST WILL LIFT N INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AND WILL VEER AROUND FORM THE N-NE TO THE NW TO W NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. STRONGER OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO THE COAST LOWER AND HIGHEST SEAS WELL OFF SHORE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE NW FRI NIGHT AND SHIFT TO MORE W-SW SAT NIGHT...REMAINING MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT MOST OF THE TIME. THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS GREATESTSEAS OFFSHORE WITH 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AND ITS STRENGTH WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY WHEN SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE PERSISTENT WINDS COMBINED WITH LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM FORMED THROUGH A SOUTHERLY 4-5 SEC WAVE AND A SE 8-9 SEC WAVE...WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT FORECAST THROUGHOUT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...DL

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