-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 081525
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHILLY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BRINGS A SHORT-LIVED WARM-UP ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER
AIR THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE EMPLOYED FOR THE NEAR TERM
UPDATE AS THE METEOROLOGICAL SET-UP SUPPORTS A COOL AND WET REGIME
TO PREVAIL ALL DAY AND OVERNIGHT. NEAR TERM MODEL DATA HOWEVER
POINTS TO ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE CURVES TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW CLIMB
FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AND SCOURS THE SHALLOW AND
COOL WEDGE OF MARITIME INFLUENCE. HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS REMAINS
UP FOR ASSESSMENT...BUT IT APPEARS THE WEDGE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS
MAKE TEMP AND WIND FORECASTS A BIT MORE PREDICTABLE THAN THE
TRANSITION OF WARMING ON MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR TODAYS 24 HOUR CALENDER PERIOD JUST
PRIOR TO 12Z/7AM MONDAY MORNING.


PRECIPITATION-WISE THE OVER-RUNNING WEDGE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AREA-WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN FACT AS THE WARM
FRONTAL TYPE PROCESS GEARS UP EARLY ON MONDAY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AND DRIZZLE MAY EXPAND OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE WEEK.
P-TYPE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT BOTH STRATIFORM AND CONVECTIVE TYPE
RAINFALL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT NOT A
LARGE OR SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION FROM EITHER. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POP VALUES TO HIGHLIGHT DECENT
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HOWEVER ACCOMPANIED BY
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SHARP CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT WILL COME
TO AN END EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FORECAST DILEMMA BEING
FORECAST HIGHS FOR MONDAY. THE MET CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE
COOLER NUMBERS AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEARING
THE WINTER SOLSTICE...THESE SEEM MORE REASONABLE ALTHOUGH WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE CLOUD OR EARLY BREAKS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
850-900MB LAYER COULD MIX DOWN.

THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE FRONT TUESDAY CONTINUE TO WAVER
AND SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS A
SECONDARY AREA OF QPF DEVELOPING WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY
THUS SLOWING THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST CYCLE THIS HAS
APPEARED SO I DID MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND INCREASED
THE LONGEVITY OF THE MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY EVENING. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS WALKED BACK SLIGHTLY WITH REGARDS
TO THE EVENTS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE NEW AND WETTER
SOLUTION AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS OPERATIONAL PUTS WEDNESDAY IN
QUESTION ALTHOUGH I DID NOT CHANGE THE DRY FORECAST AT LEAST FOR
NOW TO SEE IF MORE SOLUTIONS COME IN SIMILAR. THE GFS ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INSTEAD OF THE WEAKLY FORCED COASTAL TROUGH. I
HAVE ALONG WITH ADJACENT OFFICES INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN THE READINGS MAY SEE SOME CHANGES DEPENDING ON
THE MASS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 15Z...PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
STRATUS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE. THERE IS A BATCH OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 13Z. THE WEDGE
WILL PROBABLY STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PERHAPS
LIFTING ALONG THE COAST BY 10-11Z ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 AM SUNDAY...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO MID-
AFTERNOON TODAY FOR ALL WATERS. THE NE WINDS CONTINUE TO HOWL AT
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT OFF CAPE FEAR EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER BREAKDOWN IN THE WEDGE BEING
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE SLOWED THE DIMINISHING TREND OF
THE NE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HOURLY HRRR MODEL RUNS ILLUSTRATING
PROGGED SFC WINDS.

THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE A SLOWER SUBSIDING TREND TO THE SIGNIFICANT
SEAS FROM ROUGHLY 4 TO 7 FT EARLY THIS AM...TO 2 TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MAKE-UP OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN VARIETY...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND
5 SECONDS.

SEA FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY
HRS BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF INTO THE NEXT PERIOD WHEN S-SW WINDS ACROSS
LOCAL SSTS IN THE 50S OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT AND ESSENTIALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY FIND DEFINITION AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS DEVELOPS
MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY BEFORE A LONG ADVERTISED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. BY
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL BE NORTH ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH THE
SAME 15-20 KNOTS. THE CHANGE IN FETCH AND THE FACT WINDS SEEM TO
REMAIN CAPPED AT 20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP SEAS BELOW FLAG CRITERIA IN A
2-4 FOOT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GREET
MARINERS INITIALLY WITH A FEW HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLOW MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THIS FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOUG/MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL