-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 280939
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
539 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will pass across the area today and tonight,
migrating offshore Thursday and Friday. A summertime feel will
return late week and through the weekend and into next week, as
warmth and humidity move into the Carolinas, along a with a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Unseasonably cool and dry high pressure
will  build in from the northwest this morning. The high passes
north of the area this afternoon then moves off the NC/VA coast
tonight. There will be an abundance of dry air in the region
today with precipitable water values under an inch this
afternoon and even lower overnight. Along with the dry air there
will be an increase in mid level subsidence. The exit of the 5h
trough in conjunction with gradual development of weak 5h ridge
results in a strong capping inversion around 11k ft. The dry
air and the inversion will prevent any precip and is likely to
keep cloud cover to a minimum. Temperatures will run below
normal with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...The chief feature of note this period is
increasing moisture and warmth, and the feel of humidity, as
return flow becomes more established. Weak surface convergence
may spawn a few coastal showers Thursday night, but moisture
will deepen more significantly Friday. A weak cool pool aloft in
the flow will sharpen lapse rates over the area Friday. The
pool will carry a vorticity feature providing a bit of upper
support on Friday. The track of this feature appears to favor
convection over NE SC Friday. Low level winds remain weak but a
few TSTMS can be expected Friday. Despite a warming trend, both
days may end up similar in maximum temperatures, since more
clouds and rain are anticipated Friday compared to Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be well
established with the trough of low pressure inland. Temperatures
will be gradually warming and the moisture will be increasing
with dew points in the 70s returning. Precipitable waters over
the weekend increase to 2 inches and this will bring the best
coverage for diurnal thunderstorms with slightly less coverage
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 10Z...Full VFR expected this TAF cycle. Reinforced high
pressure will bring NE winds this morning, veering to E during
this afternoon, then light and variable overnight as pressure
fields become flat/weak. Isolated light mist possible near the
coastal interior into daybreak but not widespread nor dense.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms
over NE SC Friday, and area-wide Saturday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Northerly flow this morning should peak
shortly after daybreak with speeds rising to 10 to 15 kt as
surge of cooler and drier air works its way down the coast.
Winds drop back closer to 10 kt by midday with direction slowly
veering from northeast to east by late afternoon and evening.
Onshore flow overnight will likely dip below 10 kt. Seas around
2 ft are expected.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Broad high pressure offshore whose axis
will remain mostly north of the region will prompt an E-SE flow
of 12 KT or less much of this period. A few showers and TSTMS
will be possible late Thursday night through Friday. Sea heights
2 feet Thursday and 2-3 feet Friday mainly from the SE every 6-8
seconds can be expected. No caution headlines or advisories. A
weak pressure pattern Friday night as the high retreats farther
offshore will result in S winds 10 KT or less.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be established
over the waters with winds shift from the south at 10 knots and
shifting to the southwest at 10 to 15 knots. Seas will range
between 2 to 3 feet Saturday and 3 to 4 feet on Sunday,

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...8