Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 171944 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 244 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will bring a mix of rain and snow, and will clear the coast late tonight. Cold and dry Arctic air, will spread into the region through Thursday. Temperatures will warm into the weekend as high pressure moves offshore. Another cold front will bring rain chances by Monday evening, but little cooling, and temperatures are expected to remain above normal into next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 PM Wednesday...A Winter Storm Warning continues for Marlboro and Robeson counties, and a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Darlington, Marlboro, Bladen, and Pender counties. GOES-East water vapor is showing the mid-level trough moving into the western Carolina`s. At the surface the cold frontal boundary is entering into the western portions of the forecast area. The 2 pm observations is showing rain over most of the forecast area. The latest HRRR is showing the best chances of snow in the western half of the area after 3 PM and will slowly make it to the coast. Timing for the coast appears to be after 8 PM. With the dry air it appears after the initial shot of precipiation that we will see light snow or flurries well after midnight. Also, with delay in the system making eastward have extended the warnings and advisories to 1 AM. Also, for areas south of the warning and advisory area will have to watch for black ice as any liquid precipiation that does fall will likely freeze. As the storm pushes off the coast, winds will increase and combined with the low temperatures will see wind chills in the the 8 to 13 degree range around sunrise Thursday. This is just above the Wind Chill Advisory criteria. On Thursday skies will clear but temperatures will struggle to get to 40 degrees with brisk winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 PM Wednesday...The mid level pattern will have evolved into a split flow regime initially and translate into a southwest flow ahead of a mid level low by Saturday morning. Although seemingly busy at the mid levels, surface high pressure will be the dominant feature. This high will move across the Gulf of Mexico then out into the Atlantic by the end of the period. Once again a temperature forecast throughout and expect lows Friday in the lower to middle 20s. Highs Friday will rebound into the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM Tuesday...The chief caption this period ? "Warming Trend". Even in wake of a cold front early next week, minimal cold air advection is seen, as the upper pattern sees a SE ATLC upper ridge gradually expand NW into the area. A weak cold pool aloft meanders eastward along the Gulf Coast this weekend and offshore by Monday, will little sensible weather impacts here. As a result, much of next week may feature sunshine and 60s in the afternoons, likely feeling like an early spring compared to the recent weather pattern. Aside from late Monday and early Tuesday, this entire period will maintain a dry column and low PWAT values. The coldest period, will be Saturday morning, near freezing, the mildest, perhaps just ahead of the cold front Monday into the upper 60s by afternoon. Tuesday looks to be the breeziest day in wake of the cold front, with W-NW breezes.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 18Z...Things will be going downhill for the inland terminals pretty quickly. The precip will start out as rain, but with 850 temps dropping to around -5C, it will turn to snow, perhaps moderate for an hour or two. Time height shows that the moisture column is not very deep on the back end, so there will probably two or three hours of flurries, with little additional accumulation. ILM will be the last terminal for the snow to end, probably around 5-6Z. Gusty winds and cold air advection will be the rule from 02Z through most of the forecast period. Nearly clear skies by daybreak on Thursday. Aside from late Monday and early Tuesday, this entire period will maintain a dry column and low PWAT values. The coldest period, will be Saturday morning, near freezing, the mildest, perhaps just ahead of the cold front Monday into the upper 60s. Tuesday looks to be the breeziest day in wake of the cold front, Extended Outlook...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Currently winds are from the east with seas running 3 to 4 feet. This will change quickly as the front and a developing low shifts to the northeast off the coast. Winds are expected to reach 20 to 25 knots late this evening and seas will increase to 5 to 7 feet. The winds will weaken and with an offshore flow the seas should settle back out to 3 to 5 feet by Thursday afternoon. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Surface high pressure will move from the northern Gulf of Mexico to well offshore during the period. Between this feature and the general cyclonic flow to the north a west to southwestern flow will prevail across the waters. Wind speeds will be fairly uniform in a 10-15 knot range leaning moreso toward the higher end early then the lower end late. Significant seas will generally fall into a 2-3 foot range. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Welcoming and friendly marine conditions this period, particularly in wake of recent weather. As high pressure slips offshore by the weekend, a milder return SW flow will prevail, with seas 3 feet or less, and even 1-2 feet at times, with winds less than 15 kt. Seas will begin to build Monday as sustained SE fetch offshore, starts pushing wave energy toward our coast. By Monday night seas of 4-5 ft in 7 second intervals, may be rolling in. No TSTMS this period, but a few rain showers can be expected Monday night, as a cold front crosses the coast. Inshore water temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for SCZ023-024. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for SCZ017. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NCZ096-105. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for NCZ087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...43

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.