Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KILM 241954
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
254 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
High pressure will remain well to our south through Wednesday
while a cold front approaches from the northwest. This boundary
will come through on Thursday bringing seasonably chilly air
over the weekend. A secondary cold front will bring a colder
Monday before temperatures bounce back to seasonable Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Unlimited visibility tonight. Early
downslope wind-flow in the evening will counterbalance near
perfect long-wave radiation escape, but after midnight as
winds taper, most locations across NE SC and SE NC will dip
through the 40s. Very late tonight cirrus from the west may
impinge the area, but it`s thinness should have little to no
bearing on temperature curves overnight. Early evening gusts
seaward at the beaches and ICW will too, settle late.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Chief weather headline this time period
reads `Mild sunshine Wednesday followed by showery conditions
Thursday`. Amping SW winds will keep the coast and coastal
interior cooler, but look for widespread 70s well inland
Wednesday afternoon across NE SC and SE NC. Cirrus in the
afternoon could impact temperature trends after mid afternoon.
Progressive cold front will sweep across the region Thursday.
SW-W low-level wind much of Thursday prior to late day frontal
passage will allow for mild temperatures amid the scattered
showers. QPF with system 0.05-.020 inches with PWAT and moisture
above 700 MB limited.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Mid level troughiness to remain a semi
permanent feature in the east through at least the weekend. The
resulting downsloping westerly flow and cool advection will mean
rain-free conditions locally and temperatures just a few degrees shy
of climatology. On Monday the trough sharpens as energy bellies
through its southern side, then swinging the trough off the coast by
Tuesday. Monday thus appears to bring chillier conditions than the
rest of the period but recovery will already be underway by Tuesday.
If there are some minor rain chances to be had it will be on Monday
with the front and upper vort max.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18Z...Surface low pressure will continue to move away from
the area with weak high pressure building in tonight. Expect VFR
conditions throughout the period with only gusty winds and brief
BKN to OVC convective ceilings this afternoon.
Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. A CFP slated early Thu
may provide brief MVFR conditions from isolated to scattered
showers prior to it`s passage.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... |
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Buoy platforms and coastal sensor trends
suggest Advisory flags may be allowed to drop by or before 6 PM
this evening. Easing wind trend will result in coincident wave
height decreases as well...to 2-4 feet overnight. Heights will
not drop quickly since a noticeable ESE swell propagates ashore.
NO TSTMS or restrictions to VSBY expected overnight.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Brief improvement on marine winds but
that`s about it. Amplifying SW winds will precede a progressive
cold front, and it looks like by late Wednesday night an
Advisory may be needed from then through Thursday even for
25-30 KT wind gusts, highest offshore, better inshore. Seas will
peak midday-ish Thursday 5-9 feet, highest outer portion. The
dominant wave periods running between 6-8 seconds. Isolated
TSTMS may be confined to the western wall of the Gulf Stream.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...NWrly post-frontal flow on Friday will turn to
more westerly over the weekend as the upper trough prepares to re-
amplify. This will bring a W wind over much of the weekend. Wind
speeds may spend most of the period in the 15 to 20 kt range but
wave shadowing will be a big factor. Currently WNA guidance is
hesitant to bring 5 ft seas into the 20nm zones save for a small
portion right out near Frying pan shoals so 3-5ft will be the fcst
for AMZ 252 but all others capped at 2-4 ft.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-