Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250206 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1006 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will affect the Carolinas through the end of the week. This will result in the continuation of dry weather. Humidity will increase by the weekend. An area of low pressure moving through the Bahamas and to Florida on Sunday into Monday, will be watched closely for possible tropical development. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1000 PM Wednesday...Ridging aloft and at the surface will continue. Spotty showers were occurring offshore. These showers were associated with an area of of low-level convergence working down the coast and coincident with an area of increased low-level moisture. The HRRR model has been consistent in showing these showers working onto portions of the immediate North Carolina coast overnight. Will maintain a slight chance for early morning light showers for portions of the Cape Fear coast. Low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 60s with lower 70s at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Deep ridging remains in place over the Carolinas through the period with strong mid level subsidence limiting moisture aloft. The center of the 5h ridge slowly migrates north Thu, ending up centered over or just west of the local area later on Fri. Meanwhile the surface high elongates northeast as its influence slowly weakens. Low level northeast flow will continue around the southwest side of the high, pushing shallow moisture into the region. The increased boundary layer moisture will help develop scattered diurnal clouds each afternoon but subsidence under the ridging will keep clouds on the flat side. Temperatures will be near to slightly above climo with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Center of mid to upper ridge overhead through the weekend will shift slowly north and weaken as tropical system makes its way west from the Bahamas. At the sfc, weak high pressure will remain to our north. This will maintain a deep easterly on shore flow through at least Monday. The ridge aloft should suppress convection for the most part through Monday but will see some clouds pass overhead at times and some daily cu development with an isolated shower or two along. Overall a dry weekend into early next week, in terms of rainfall, with only isolated showers, but will continue to have a summertime air mass in place with temps running near to above normal most days with overnight lows several degrees above. Should see a slight dip in temps over the weekend into early next week as 850 temps show a minor drop but overall fairly consistent summer time temps through the period. As ridge weakens aloft, the onshore flow will allow for increased potential for showers especially as tropical system moves west from the Bahamas heading into mid week next week. Most models show a weak tropical wave/low reaching the south Fl coast by early Monday, but then the GFS shows it moving up the southeast coast to FL/GA coast by Wed while the ECMWF is faster as it keeps it on a more southern track across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening as it reaches the western Gulf coast. For now, it looks like it will remain quite far south at least through Tues. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 00Z...High pressure will continue to ridge into the region with predominately VFR conditions expected. There may be some very light fog around sunrise, otherwise good aviation weather through the forecast period. Light northeast flow this evening, continuing through Thursday. A weak southeast resultant is expected Thursday afternoon. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible early morning VFR due to patchy fog through Monday, otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 PM Wednesday...Northeast flow up to 10 to 15 kt will continue overnight as high pressure remains centered north of the area. A modest increase in low-level moisture along with some weak convergence may result in isolated showers across the waters overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Elongated high pressure to the north will maintain northeast flow through the period. Speeds will be 10 to 15 kt but winds may acquire more of an onshore component each afternoon, especially Fri, as the gradient relaxes and a weak sea breeze develops. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft through the period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Weak high pressure at the sfc with center just north through the period. Overall expect a deep E-NE fetch at the base of the ridge through the period. This will maintain easterly winds 10 to 15 kts through much of the period. This easterly push should produce seas 3 to 4 ft through much of the period with some 5 fters possible in outer waters. WNA model shows the forerunners from Gaston, a longer period up to 10 sec E-SE swell, reaching the waters by Sat night and then greater easterly swell up to 16 seconds reaching the waters by Sun evening.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL

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