Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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381 FXUS62 KILM 122340 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 640 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW ~125 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND SC MOUNTAINS WILL RACE EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...REACHING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE`VE ALREADY LOST THE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THINNING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE 925 MB) AS WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT...AND I HAVE SOME CONCERN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH IN ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ERASE ANY RADIATIONAL INVERSION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT...STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS MAY SEEM EXCESSIVELY WARM GIVEN THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLUNGING BELOW -8C BY DAYBREAK...BUT GUSTY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S. AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14: WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18 FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19 THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF AN INCH BY TUES MORNING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH FRI. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LATEST IMAGERY REMAINS VERY QUIET THIS EVENING AS ALL PRECIPITATION FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW TO MID CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF LOW CIGS ARE CREATING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. DO ANTICIPATE SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVING WAY TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ON SATURDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. WILL SEE GUSTS SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS INTO THE SC MOUNTAINS WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE BEACHES BETWEEN 2-4 AM. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS UPDATE FEATURES IS A 1-FOOT INCREASE IN SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE CAPE FEAR AREA...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN. WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY TUES AFTN. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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