Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250613 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 213 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will control the weather through most of the period with temperatures mostly above seasonal averages. There will be a risk for mainly afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday ahead of a cold front on Wednesday and then on Friday in association with a warm front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1000 PM Friday...We will be under the influence of weak warm advection overnight. There will be no danger of a frost or freeze. Cool high pressure is offshore and the return flow around this feature will keep winds from the SSE and S overnight at 5 to 10 mph. Low level moisture has been steadily rising through the day and dewpoints will be elevated through the night. This may result in some patchy late night/early morning fog, however, there will generally be no significant restrictions to visibility. The exception may be across portions of Williamsburg County where given the wind direction, residual smoke from a prescribed burn in Berkeley County earlier today may combine with some fog to reduce visibility to 2 miles or so through shortly after sunrise when mixing will begin. Lows tonight will be around 50 to mid 50s along portions of the immediate coast. Increasing mositure advection and afternoon heating Saturday will likely make for a more extensive cu field and can not rule out a lone shower or two. In addition, a cirrus shield will gradually thicken as an upper trough deepens over the Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures in the mid 70s will otherwise make for a pleasant day as the warm southerly flow continues. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday...The latter part of the weekend into early next week will feature a slowly evolving pattern as mid level high pressure hangs on to the southeast and low pressure wobbles through the Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure will be weakening slowly as the mid level low has an attendant front or more like a trough moving across the southeast with a weakening band of showers and possibly thunder. I did maintain the low chance pops for Sunday although I wouldn`t be surprised to see the activity remain to the west with the waning forcing and persistence of high pressure. Highs should be well into the 70s Sunday despite a lot of cloud cover with lows both Sunday and Monday well into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 324 AM Friday...A very mild week on tap with a series of southern stream short- waves providing a chance of rain Monday into Tuesday and again late in the week. Maximums this week each day will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, and generally warmer inland away from the cooling effects of the ocean as a robust sea breeze looks in the making each afternoon. Cross sectional analysis and instability parameters suggest a slight chance of a TSTM late Monday through Tuesday. Low level and moist southerly wind flow will prevail this period, with a brief and weak back-door frontal intrusion early Thursday will little consequence except to lighten winds for a small time before another southern stream system approaches, followed by a rain potential on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...VFR is expected at all the terminals, although a period of MVFR BR is possible around sunrise, 09-12z, at KLBT and there may also be brief BR at KFLO overnight. For KILM, KMYR and KCRE, marine stratocumulus, 3-5 kft should advect onshore through this morning, with a ceiling likely at KCRE and KMYR. Expect scattered to broken cumulus and stratocumulus, 3500 to 5000 ft, to develop for the inland terminals while more or less persisting for the coastal terminals. There will be a tendency for the lower clouds to erode in the wake of the stabilizing seabreeze at the coastal terminals. Can not rule out a spotty shower, but not enough of a chc to be included in any TAF. Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in stratus/fog during the early morning hours Sun and in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue. Expect VFR conditions once cold front moves through on Wed.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1000 PM Friday...Return flow around offshore high pressure will keep winds from the SSE and S overnight. The slack pressure gradient and lack of significant nocturnal jetting will keep wind speeds at or below 10 kt. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 ft as residual and weak SE swell remains. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday...Essentially a summer like pattern across the coastal waters through the period. High pressure well offshore will dictate conditions and this should yield a southeast flow around ten knots. There could be some acceleration in the vicinity of the sea breeze per usual. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 324 AM Friday...Summer like pattern continues as S-SW winds prevail 10-15 KT. A SE swell will keep seas slightly elevated, but dominant periods of around 10 seconds will not make wave particularly steep. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday a few TSTMS can be expected as a low pressure system passes north of the area. Wednesday may see a few storms linger over the Gulf Stream waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...RGZ

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