Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KILM 251040
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
640 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm
temperatures and minimal rain chances through most of the
upcoming seven days. At the surface there will be a light onshore
flow. A tropical disturbance in the Bahamas will cross Florida
over the weekend and may need to be watched for a turn up the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 640 AM Thursday...Removed mentionable pop values along the
coast north of Cape Fear this morning as radar shows minimal
activity at this time. A shower or 2 is possible this afternoon
from inland Georgetown to inland Horry county. No changes and the
previous morning discussion follows.
Satellite animations show well the upper ridge west of the region
sending occasional high-based debris clouds south into the
Carolinas. In the low levels, a few cumulus clouds offshore can be
seen in the IR channel tracking to the SW skirting the coast. KLTX
radar picking up isolated, landward moving showers 15-35 NM
offshore. As diurnal instability over the waters reaches peak into
daybreak, a few raindrops could visit the coast from Bald Head
Island to Surf City through 10 AM. Shower development this
afternoon along the sea breeze boundary in Georgetown county is
possible, isolated at best. Afternoon heat driven cumulus can be
expected across NE SC and SE NC. Maximums this afternoon 86-89
near the coast and 89 to 92 inland. Dewpoints in the 60s will keep
the heat indices from climbing much beyond the air temperature.
Overnight, the minimums will fall to around 70 for most areas by
daybreak Friday, a bit milder by the coast.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Primary weather highlights this period are
maximum temperatures a few degrees above normal, small rain chances,
and a fairly comfortable air mass as dewpoints hold in the lower 70s
compared to middle and upper. Over-lap of peak heating and inland
convergence could pop an isolated TSTM Saturday afternoon when
moisture deepens slightly. Otherwise mainly fair this period with
heat induced cumulus both days. Lows will become a bit milder this
period and by early Sunday minimums in the middle 70s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Models struggling right off the bat with the
start of the long term period. Strong mid level ridge still likely
in command but models now interestingly try to retrograde an upper
impulse our way out of the messy remnants of Fiona and stalled front
well off the coast. GFS and older EC imply this feature to be of
little consequence locally but the Canadian has a strong surface
reflection and could imply rain though it keeps it all north of
here. For now have maintained warm temps and isolated POPs of
continuity especially since the latest EC barely shows it at all.
Assuming all of the aforementioned the upper ridging will maintain
warm temps and minimal POPs through the period. Towards the midweek
we may start dealing with some moisture associated with tropical
disturbance AL99. The surface pressure pattern remains quite poorly
defined through the long term with just a general light onshore
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 06Z...VFR through the period. FM groups only to reflect
some veering of the wind (turning clockwise) later today. The sea
breeze may cause this earlier at coastal airports while high ridge
retreating from the Carolinas does the same a few hours later at
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible early morning VFR due to patchy fog
through Monday, otherwise expect VFR.
-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM Thursday...No advisories this period, although
expect seas to remain a bumpy 2-3 feet in a mish-mash of short-
period waves from the ENE-SE between 4 and 8 seconds. A weak ESE
swell around 11 seconds remains in the mix. No hazards this
period. A few showers this morning will move toward land between
Surf City and Bald Head Island, and an isolated waterspout cannot
be ruled out, but no TSTMS expected today or tonight. Winds will
veer to SE today over the waters but will decrease in speed
tonight, as high pressure weakens.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Great pair of boating days as winds ease, to a
light onshore flow. Seas between 2-3 feet, and longer wave periods
may begin to emerge in the spectrum by Saturday. Isolated marine
showers may be expected in the mornings this period but they will
remain widely separated. No advisories or hazards noted this period.
Slight stronger inshore winds in the afternoon due to the sea
breeze both Friday and Saturday.
LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...A very weak pressure gradient making for some
very light winds even by Summer standards through the long term.
Wind waves will obviously be minimal. There will be an increase in
swell energy however associated with Gaston, the extent of which
will hinge upon the yet uncertain strength and size of the
hurricane. WNA guidance shows the main swell front arriving Sunday
evening. We may have to increase wave height forecast for Monday but
for now it shows the main increase in wave height staying to our
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