Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 032318 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 718 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE SC PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS...WAS HELPING TO SPUR BOUTS ON HEAVY RAINFALL BENEATH SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MURRELLS INLET TO HEMINGWAY TO LAKE CITY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON RAINFALL INTENSITIES OVERALL INTERACTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH MID EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EVENING PRIMARILY IN SC. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER. WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W. FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY. UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS. ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR. AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING. COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 718 PM THURSDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT MADE UP OF ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT... WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY 3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS SEVERELY LIMITED. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.