Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010752 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 352 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...POSTCARD SUMMERTIME WEATHER THIS FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ALONG 30N ROUGHLY...AND EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GULF STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND WEAK LEE-TROUGHING ALONG THE SAND-HILLS INTERACT...ENSURING S-SW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FULLY POWERED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE MID AFTERNOON WILL BRING GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. EVEN FAR INLAND WEST OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THE SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. SB-CAPES WILL SURGE NEAR 2500 J/KG THROUGH AFTERNOON...IN OVERALL A LIGHT COLUMN WIND FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND OUR PROJECTED STORM MOTION DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE WINDOW IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE E OR SE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE WE HAVE A LOW-END THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FIRE INLAND FROM THE COAST 18Z-19Z...THEN SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OR NOT MOVING MUCH AT ALL...AND POTENTIALLY DUMPING GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND OR COASTAL INTERIOR. LATEST PWAT SCANS FROM SPACE SHOW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT NEAR THE 2" MARK LATER TODAY. A FEW INTERIOR SC ZONE MAY TOUCH AT 105 DEGREES ON HEAT INDEX VALUES BUT NOT OF DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MIXING OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CU DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPS. IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT AND AN SPS IS PLANNED SINCE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE WIDESPREAD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENCE IS MINIMAL AS IS DRYING ALOFT. IF ANYTHING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BACKSIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PUSH AFTERNOON ML CAPE VALUES OVER 2K J/KG EACH DAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE LACK OF MID LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEP ENOUGH THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE. ON WED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND START WASHING OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT WEAK 5H RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. LACK OF SUBSIDENCE HELPS MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUN. FRONT THAT STALLED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WED WILL MORE OR LESS DISSIPATE THU INTO FRI AS ITS REMAINS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE AT MOST A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZATION OR MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT BUT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAMP GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE KFLO/KLBT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPO IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOP JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING...FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN LAST NIGHT...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR THE INLAND TERMS. ALONG THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS 1-2KFT CLOUDS MAY CLIP THESE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...SO NO VCSH FOR THE COASTAL TERMS ATTM. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. WE COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDDAY AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ISO/SCT AT BEST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY TODAY AS SW WINDS GUST TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED 15 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY NEAR THE BEACHES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE GUSTINESS WILL PRODUCE WHITE CAPS AND SOME CHOPPY INLETS. SAFETY IS THE RULE TODAY WITH LOTS OF VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE PLYING THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS BUT WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH DAILY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 KT OR LESS TO A SOLID 15 KT AT THEIR PEAK. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...8 SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR/8

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