Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301036 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 635 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. TWEAKED SKYS...WINDS AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS BUT NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A COUPLE DAYS IS NO LONGER READILY IDENTIFIABLE IN THE SURFACE ANALYSIS THOUGH DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S COAST TO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE TIMING BETWEEN DIURNAL HEATING...SFC DEWPOINT RECOVERY...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH AT H5. WRF AND GFS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE WRF MAKING IT A LATE DAY INTO EVENING PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER AND THE GFS BRINGING IT INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR A BLEND SOLUTION WITH A SLOW RECOVERY IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUMS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH MINS MAINLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL KEEP ITS RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS DRIVES TEMPS TO ABOVE CLIMO...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION. WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE OVERHEAD AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY VORTICITY MAXIMUMS. CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THE GFS SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. FOR THIS REASON WILL CUT BACK INHERITED POP A BIT WEDNESDAY AND JUST MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE BY DAY - SCHC/SILENT AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW 90S DURING THE AFTNS...AND MID 70S OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN USUAL JULY FASHION...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGING FEATURE BEING THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL FLATTEN INTO THE WKND...WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...AS WELL AS DECREASING POP EACH DAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY HOVERING ACROSS NC DURING THE WKND...BUT THIS IS NOT AGREED UPON BY OTHER GUIDANCE OR WPC...NOR IS IT SUPPORTED BY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN. FOR THIS REASON WILL HEDGE AGAINST THE GFS SOLUTION AND SHOW SLIGHT WARMING EACH DAY FROM JUST ABOVE CLIMO TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN...WITH DECREASING CONVECTION CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WILL SHOW AT LEAST SCHC POP EACH AFTN FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LINGERING LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH/VCTS LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS VFR PREVAILS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TO 5 KT OR LESS AND FEW/SCT CIRRUS. WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EARLY THIS MORNING...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOA 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VCSH/VCTS AS SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...THUS HAVE KEPT IN GOING FORECAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM...EXPECT W TO SW WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS TO BECOME S TO SW TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS OF 4 FT OR LESS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THOUGH A FEW 5 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE NEARER 20 NM NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH LYING INLAND FROM THE COAST. THIS WILL DRIVE SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS...WITH ENHANCEMENTS EACH EVENING TO 20 KTS AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS. BLEND OF INHERITED WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THE LATEST NWPS RUN BRINGS SEAS TO JUST BELOW 6 FT EACH EVENING AS THE WINDS INCREASE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTN/EVE. HAVE KEPT CURRENT FORECAST AT 3-5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A SCEC IS PROBABLY THURSDAY...WITH THE SCA A POSSIBILITY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ENTERING THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE...AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS LITTLE VARIATION IN MARINE CONDITIONS EACH DAY...WITH SW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS PRETTY MUCH CONSTANT. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A SE SWELL TO PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TIMES IN THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT GETS PINCHED IN THE LEE OF THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RAN SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL/RAN

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