Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271350 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 950 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Sunny and warm conditions will prevail today before clouds and showers increase into the weekend. Low pressure from the Bahamas will organize and approach the South Carolina coast Sunday. This low will meander near the coast through the middle of next week maintaining unsettled weather and slightly cooler temperatures. Periods of heavy rain and strong rip currents are possible at times throughout the holiday weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 945 AM Friday...Day is starting out sunny most locations and warming quickly, with temperatures now in the mid to upper 70s most locations. No changes to the forecast were needed with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: Sunshine minutes today reaching the moderate to high category as subsidence aloft is injected into the western lobe of the overhead upper ridge, by the approach of the broad upper gyre hosting the tropical wave below it. A few clouds into daybreak near 6-8 KFT will erode through morning. There may be some afternoon cumulus but sea- breeze convergence is expected to remain weak today since the synoptic and sea breeze flow remain similar to northwest. Debris clouds from convection well west of the region may increase later in the day generally above 20 thousand feet. The overnight period will remain quiet and it is not until daybreak Saturday that we see significant column moisture brought onshore. Maximums for today middle and upper 80s and warmest deeper inland, minimums near 70 at the coast and middle 60s inland in light northeast wind.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Friday...A consensus can be seen in the PMSL plots from the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF solutions showing a 1009-1013 MB low moving near or onshore into the Charleston area sometime Sunday afternoon or evening. This consensus was used to generate pop distribution and construct the QPF layout for Saturday and Sunday. The rainfall expectation at present is 1 to 1.25 inch totals SAT/SUN for coastal SC and around a half inch on areal average across SE NC. Winds at least for now do not appear to pose a hazard concern. Convection embedded in the tropical moisture however could cause locally heavy rain because precipitable waters in excess of 2 inches will edge onshore by Saturday afternoon. Low-level winds are not strong so any TSTMS should remain below severe limits barring no enhanced low level helicity. The National Hurricane Center will be sending out a plane today to investigate the offshore system. Maximums both days near average for this time of year, low and middle 80s. Minimums will be slightly above overage due to clouds and abundant moisture. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...Lots of uncertainty remains in the extended as what could very well be Topical/Sub-tropical storm Bonnie drifts across the area. Other than the GFS which is a clear outlier (00z/27 guidance) - the majority of the models develop a weak closed low moving onshore in SC and then drifting slowly before lifting NE at the start of the extended. The difference in the GFS vs the other guidance is how the surface low interacts with a shortwave moving through the Great Lakes and into New England. This shortwave is the one currently across TX...and this should break down the ridge enough to allow the surface low pressure to move NE and out of the area mid-week around the offshore high. The GFS does not have this happen and therefore spins the weak low across SC through all of next week. That being said...will favor a non GFS forecast for next week. This suggests increasing rain and thunderstorm chances...mostly Mon/Tue as the weak low meanders NE across the ILM CWA. The combination of the weak low moving slowly overhead and the deep easterly tropical fetch angling into the area will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms early next week. Still uncertainty exists about QPF due to the showery nature of the precip and weakening 850mb wind/moist transport...but with PWATS around 2 inches there is at least the potential for periods of heavy rainfall. Beyond Tuesday...anticipating the slow departure of the remnants of the low pressure...the area will remain unsettled but with at least somewhat decreasing shower chances and warming temperatures as ridging begins to blossom across the SE. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z...Kind of in a holding pattern for the next 24 hours until low pressure moves near the coast by Saturday afternoon. Fairly decent subsidence on the west side of low pressure...which should keep skies fairly clear for much of the day. A southeast gradient and resultant is expected this afternoon. Overnight...increasing clouds in advance of the offshore low. Scattered showers will break out toward the end of the forecast period. Extended Outlook...OCNL MVFR in scattered to numerous showers, isolated TSTMS this weekend. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM Thursday...Conditions remain benign over the waters with seas of right around 2 ft and winds of less than 10 kts. forecast good to go with no changes anticipated for the near term. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows: Another fine marine-weather day but waves will begin to grow tonight as swell from an approaching tropical wave fans ashore, reaching 3 to 4 feet every 8-9 seconds from the SE by daybreak Saturday. As a result no advisory is expected through the near term period, but showers will begin to increase in coverage offshore, and waves will continue to grow in size into Saturday. Light southerly winds this morning will become more onshore ESE- ENE in the afternoon but no higher than 15 kt with seas holding 2-3 ft every 8-9 seconds. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Friday...The weekend will not be ideal for offshore boating ventures as elevated seas in SE swell and scattered to numerous showers and isolated TSTMS will troll the waters. Seas 4 to 6 feet every 9 seconds accompanied by a moderate onshore chop will characterize the sea- spectrum. The National Hurricane Center is sending a plane out this afternoon to investigate the system for tropical development and potential. Mariners should remain closely briefed on the weather as there is a possibility a `tropical storm watch` may be posted. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...Meandering low pressure will remain the primary story this period as it moves slowly across or just inland of the coastal waters. The gradient around this feature will be weak...so wind speeds are forecast to be just around 10 kts...with a S/SE or S/SW direction both days. Wave heights will be dependent primarily on continuing 8 sec E swell from the weekend...with some 6 fters still possible Monday before falling to 3-4 ft Monday night and Tuesday. Still some uncertainty into the track and strength of this low pressure...which could impact this forecast considerably...but attm it appears the worst of the marine conditions may occur before this period.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW

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