Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261924 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 324 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...DIURNAL COOLING WILL TAKE ITS TOLL ON CONVECTION OVER LAND AS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES TAIL OFF INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL PREVAIL TO TRIGGER A SMATTERING OF LANDWARD MOVING SHOWERS INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND ISOLATED POP VALUES WERE SUSTAINED. MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER LAND IS SUN-INDUCED AND A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT APT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS WHICH MAY BRUSH ASHORE NEAR THE COAST. IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL PREVENT A BREAK OUT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW PATCHES OF MIST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN STEADILY IN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. MIST WILL BE FAVORED INLAND IN AREAS SHELTERED OR DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP US IN SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD WHILE OVERALL MOVING WEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. CEILINGS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS...WORST CASE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END AS WE LOSE OUR HEATING...SOMETIME AFTER 21Z. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST AS MUCH LIGHT FOG AS YESTERDAY...WITH THE INLAND TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT WEST...WITH POSSIBLY SOME DECENT COVERAGE WEST OF I 95. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...STEADY AS SHE GOES WITH PERSISTENT S-SE WINDS 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AROUND 3 FEET. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS WILL HOLD AROUND 6 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP. GUSTS TO 17 KT NEAR SHORE CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EVENING. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-4 NM AT TIMES BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. NO MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3 FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC PERIODS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MJC/DL

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