Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191734 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 134 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly clear skies and a warming trend are expected into the weekend, as a dry upper ridge builds across the region. An approaching cold front will bring a few showers on Tuesday, before moving offshore Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 11 AM Thursday...Weak shortwave trough moving across the area today will have minimal impact on sensible weather. Deep dry air and subsidence inversion around 850 mb will prevent any meaningful cloud development. Do see some cirrus headed this way, associated with the shortwave, but the thickest portion of this will pass south of the forecast area. High pressure remains in control at the surface with sunshine/air mass modification more than offsetting weakening northerly flow. As such highs today will run around 5 degrees above climo. Good to great radiational cooling conditions tonight with weakening boundary layer winds and deep dry air. Lows will end up several degrees cooler than this morning, especially inland. Fog will be possible in some areas overnight but do not expect significant visibility reductions. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 211 AM Thursday...A dry and warm short-wave upper ridge of notable amplitude will migrate east, and anchor off the coast this period. Associated subsidence will maintain a particularly dry column, while promoting a daytime warming trend into 80s over many inland spots Friday and Saturday. The aridity will sustain large diurnal temperature ranges, as clearing overnight leads to efficient radiational cooling and seasonably cool fall mornings, with surface high pressure nearly overhead. As the center of the high slips offshore late Saturday, return air flow off the Atlantic will bring increasing low level moisture and marine clouds into very early Sunday, and minimums at daybreak will be considerably higher than previous dawns. Patchy fog along the coastal interior seems plausible early on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A highly amplified H5 pattern will prevail at the onset of the long term period with ridging across the Eastern United States. At the surface, high pressure will also continue to ridge across the forecast area as it departs the Mid-Atlantic Region. As a result, dry weather will continue as temperatures warm a few categories above normal through the weekend into early next week. Eventually the H5 and surface ridges lose control as an upper trough and surface low push eastward. Give this system`s current progression it appears that there will be a good chance of storms during Tuesday with a lowering in temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday as surface high pressure builds back into the region. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence of VFR through 20/00Z. Clouds will be sct through this TAF valid period. N-NE winds at 5-10 kts expected, except east KCRE/KMYR this afternoon. After 00Z, with clear skies and light winds conditions will be favorable for fog development. Moisture is very limited and will just indicate MVFR vsbys for now at the most favorable times 10-12Z. Fog could certainly develop sooner at coastal stations where moisture is more favorable. Extended Outlook...Tempo MVFR/showers Mon/Tues. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11 AM Thursday...Went ahead and ended the SCEC an hour early. Buoys are suggestive that any seas close to 5 ft are made up mostly of longer period swells and winds have dropped off considerably due to the ever weakening gradient. Northeast winds today will become more northerly tonight but speeds will continue dropping as the gradient further weakens. Speeds 10 to 15 kt into the afternoon will drop to around 10 kt this evening and overnight. Seas remain on a slow downward trend falling 3 to 4 ft this afternoon and 2 to 3 ft overnight. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 211 AM Thursday...An improving marine trend, as winds and seas decrease, generally NE-E through the period. Winds will veer to E in the afternoons inshore, then back to NE at night generally 15 kt or less. Wave energy from the E with dominant periods of 8-9 seconds. A dry atmosphere remains in place so no TSTMS this period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure is expected to shift farther off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday, allowing the flow to veer onshore. Southeast flow will further turn becoming southerly during Monday as an area of low pressure treks from the Gulf Coast to the western Carolinas. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be reached late Monday in the strengthening southerly flow. Seas will be 3-4 ft through much of the period given the duration and size of the onshore fetch around the periphery of the aforementioned high pressure. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...MRR

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