Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180725 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 325 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANAL SHOWS A COLD FRONT NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST AREA IS DRY THIS MORNING AS THE LAST OF LAST NIGHTS SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS NOW MOVED WELL OFFSHORE. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP UP A COOL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A TAD BELOW NORMAL...FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY OVER OUR SC COUNTIES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS. OVERNIGHT WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING US LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST FRI AND SAT...MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A CLASSIC "WEDGE" DAY AS MID LEVEL PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE QUICK TO PUSH THE PARENT HIGH OFF THE COAST. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW DOES START TO DEVELOP ON SAT. OF THE 2 DAYS FRI APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WHERE PRECIP IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASE BY ABOUT HALF AN INCH FROM FRI INTO SAT...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS A BIT STRONGER. ONLY POTENTIAL HITCH FOR THE SAT FORECAST IS DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW ALONG FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT IF IT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE COAST PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE INCREASED. CLOUD COVER AND EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NEXT WEEK BEGINS UNSETTLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING SUN THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST...BUT HOW FAR OFF THE COAST AND AT WHAT STRENGTH REMAIN CRUCIAL DETAILS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE FRONT/LOW ON SUN BUT STILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF THE COAST. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A VERY SHARP POP/SKY GRADIENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW GIVEN THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. FOR NOW HAVE NOT MADE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE INHERITED SUN POP FORECAST. REGION WILL START TO DRY OUT LATER SUN WITH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CLEARING AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. LOW EXITS NORTHEAST LATE SUN WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL BRIEFLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO...LIKELY THE ONLY TIME DURING THE PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LATE MON OR EARLY TUE FROPA...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION. FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCEMENT. FROPA TIMING SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WILL INCREASE POP TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE COAST FOR TUE/WED WITH COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN. DEEP DRY AIR AND WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK TO KEEP THE REGION DRY TUE/WED. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE PERIOD ENDS. THIS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER WEDGE EVENT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALOFT THE 5H TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT IFR/LIFR BR/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AT KFLO AND KLBT AFTER 09Z WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. ALONG THE COAST...SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR LEVELS BEFORE 12Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT KCRE/KMYR BETWEEN 10-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL KEEP IFR STRATUS SCT ATTM. MVFR CIGS SEEM MORE LIKELY FOR KILM/KCRE/KMYR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...BUT EXPECT VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY MIDDAY. THEN VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER 18Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WIND WAVES WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD...BRINGING A COMBINED SEA HEIGHT RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT TIMES. DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE GRADIENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AND SPEEDS LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT COULD APPROACH 25 KT. CONTINUED STRONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FT LATER FRI AND SAT WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT 6 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SCEC OR SCA HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AROUND 15 KT SUN AS WEAK LOW PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT SUN NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT A LITTLE AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS INITIALLY WEAK AND COLD ADVECTION IS DELAYED. COLDER AIR ARRIVES AS THE PERIOD ENDS...GIVING A LATE BUMP TO NORTHWEST FLOW. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT LATER SUN AND MON. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR

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