Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271152 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 752 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD START FLOWING BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS FALLING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA AND THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN HAS SUFFICIENTLY DRIED OUT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAKING THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MIX WITH FLURRIES ACROSS PENDER COUNTY REMOTE AS THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. SKIES HAVE FOR THE TIME BEING PARTIALLY CLEARED FROM DILLON TO MYR AND WESTWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THIS PERIOD AS IT VERY SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH MID WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS TROUGH. THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO EFFECT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING. EXAMINATION OF MOISTURE PROFILES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND COOLING THIS PERIOD. THIS TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING UNDERWAY IN STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENT FLOW FROM BBP TO GGE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS TREND WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE VERY LARGE AND STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE N GIVEN IT HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN UPPER LOW. CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS LUMBERTON AND THE GRAND STRAND THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS EYF AND ILM BY/DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT A FULLY SUNNY DAY ANYWHERE AS CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY FILL IN AS UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL DROP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO UNDER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6 DEG C. 500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND MINUS 30 DEG C. EVEN WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN UPWARD MOMENTUM. IN FACT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING IN SOME AREAS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...NORMAL FOR LATE JAN IS MID AND UPPER 50S. TONIGHT...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY CLEAR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS SNEAKING DOWN THE COAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ROTATING BY TO OUR N AND NE AFTER DARK. TONIGHT...WE ARE EXPECTING THE COLDEST NIGHT SINCE JAN 11TH. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE WED IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES. A SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM FULLY DECOUPLING...THUS LIMITING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT. WAKE UP WIND CHILL VALUES FOR MOST OF US WED MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OUT OF THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...FINAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE ALREADY JUST OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A CHILLY DAY WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE TO START BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS COLD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKLY REVERSING IN THE BACKING WIND FIELD JUST OFF THE SURFACE. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S WILL QUICKLY FALL WITH SUNSET DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 30S AND SETTLE INTO MID 20S FOR LOWS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS IS COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS RAD COOLING CONDITIONS APPEAR BETTER IF NOT OPTIMIZED. PROGRESSION OF HIGH OFF THE COAST PAIRED WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT SHOULD BOOST THURSDAY TEMPS TO JUST SHY OF CLIMO AND CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SLOWLY. SURFACE COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAILS CONSIDERABLY. THE DISCONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO PROBABLY PRECLUDES MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL ADVECTION ON FRIDAY MAY BE DELAYED A BIT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH BY EVENING OR THEREAFTER. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER MOS HIGHS TOO HIGH OR THAT TEMPS MAY BEGIN FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE INHERITED HIGHS JUST SHY OF CLIMO. CHILLY AIRMASS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY`S SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY STILL COOL BUT WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE WRUNG OUT BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME MORE CHILLY BUT NOT ARTIC AIR. MEANWHILE INTERESTING SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE HANGING BACK JUST WEST OF TEXAS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SATELLITE SHOWS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU THAT WILL AFFECT LBT AND ILM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...VFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE DISHING IT OUT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL SLOWLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WE WILL SEE A GUSTY NORTHWEST GRADIENT TODAY AS A RESULT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS A REASONABLE BET. WINDS LIGHTEN DIURNALLY THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL TUE THROUGH SAT. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS WILL BE UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF NEW ENGLAND...MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE N THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX. IN FACT...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS A COLD/DRY SURGE MOVES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS. ALSO...BACKSWELL FROM THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS...KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED EVEN WITH THE STRONG OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT. WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN 20 NM...HIGHER OFFSHORE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NW...VEERING TO NNW OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY BRINGS AN INITIALLY MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH THE EARLY DAY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NO FLAGS EXPECTED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LARGEST SEAS REMOVED FROM THE COASTLINE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY A FURTHER DECREASE IN WIND SPEED EXPECTED WHILE CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN DIRECTION OCCURS. SEAS SETTLE IN HEIGHT EVEN IF THE PERIOD SHORTENS SLIGHTLY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL AIR PUSH ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY OR HEADLINES THRESHOLDS WITH NWRLY FLOW VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NE ON SEERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE HIGH OVER SRN GREAT LAKES. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY LEADING TO ONLY A MINOR ADDITIONAL VEER LOCALLY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43

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