Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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120 FXUS62 KILM 222326 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 726 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather is expected today as high pressure moves off to the northeast ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the area late Monday through Tuesday morning and some storms could be strong. Cooler air will spread across the region through mid- week, as the front moves off the coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Satellite imagery shows moisture steadily increasing as low-level flow turns from the east to a southeast trajectory. Mid-levels will remain dry initially thus inhibiting any significant rain chances through tonight. The best chances will remain across the extreme southern areas where low-level theta-e advection is a little more focused through tonight. Better chances all areas during Monday surges back above 1.5 inches. In the end the GFS may be a touch too fast with the arrival of the next system. In the end expect marginal instability to support mention of thunderstorms later in the day. Temperatures tonight will be well above normal with onshore flow and increasing cloud cover. Highs on Monday will be above normal as well but impeded by cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday...The focus remains on the potent storm system projected to move across the area late Monday into Tuesday. There are still some minor differences in timing that likely won`t be resolved until show time but the overall forecast has changed little. We are still advertising likely pops from east to west from 00 through 12 UTC Tuesday. Severe parameters remain in place for a high shear/low cape event. SPC continues to highlight a large area in a marginal risk due to the timing and instability questions. Some lighter showers may linger into the day Tuesday especially eastern areas as the front slows down as it becomes somewhat aligned with the mid level flow. A stronger shortwave gives the boundary a boost Tuesday afternoon. Regarding temperatures, cold air advection in the wake of the front doesn`t arrive in force until late Tuesday, which should be another warm one relatively speaking. Lows Wednesday dip into the upper 40s west to near 50 east. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Initial portion of the Long Term looks to be dry as high pressure transits east across the eastern Carolinas in the wake of a cold FROPA. Showers moving in advance of the next cold front may impact the area as early as Saturday, but model solutions are still quite divergent as far as timing goes, with the ECMWF holding off on FROPA until after the weekend and the GFS being earlier. So, will limit pops to slight/low chance for this weekend until the picture becomes clearer. It is possible that the weekend may also end up dry. Temperatures will start off below normal for late October for the first couple of days of the long term, warming to more climatologically-correct levels by Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 23Z...Latest satellite loop shows low level onshore flow from the atlantic pushing stratocumulus deck across SC just south of KMYR and KCRE. Clouds earlier across these airports have pushed on to the west with clear skies now. Expect just scattered clouds across the coastal terminals for much of the night and VFR conditions. Further inland an approaching cold front will be spreading a broken deck stratocumulus clouds between 4-5K feet becoming overcast and lowering to around 3K feet across KFLO after 23/06z and probably around 23/12z across KLBT although some MVFR is expected with fog after 23/09z here. Conditions will deteriorate further on Monday as front advances to the east. Tightening pressure gradient will produce gusty SE winds of 20-25 kts from late morning ~15z through the afternoon all terminals with isolated showers around the region after 13z-15z. Showers will become more numerous during the afternoon with the threat of thunderstorms across the inland terminals so will mention in prob30 group after 18z. Best chance for scattered thunderstorms will be after 24/00z. moderate confidence in MVFR during the day Monday all terminals. Extended Outlook...Intermittent IFR conditions are possible through Tuesday morning. Becoming VFR by midday Tuesday. VFR Wednesday through Friday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday...High pressure off New England will continue to ridge back across the southeast coast. The high will begin losing its grip tonight but more-so Monday ahead of a strong cold front. As a result, easterly flow this evening will becoming southeast tonight into Monday morning before veering to a southerly direction Monday afternoon. Speeds will gradually increase as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear marginal at this time for Monday afternoon. Widely scattered showers are possible across the southern waters through tonight and they will increase in coverage during Monday along with a chance of a tstm. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Small craft conditions should be in place at the beginning of the period with a southerly flow of 20-25 knots and seas eclipsing six feet. Winds will increase a few knots by Tuesday morning as will seas as a strong low level jet moves across. For a good bit of Tuesday a southwest flow will prevail on the order of 15- 20 knots. Cold air advection will begin Tuesday evening and continue into early Wednesday although not overly impressive. This should lead to northwest winds of 15-20 knots. Seas later Tuesday through Wednesday will drop below small craft criteria. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday...High pressure transiting east across the waters will lead to gradually improving boating conditions with dry weather through the long term. Period starts out with NW winds of 15 to 20 kts and 3 to 5 ft seas in the wake of the previous days FROPA, but expect conditions to be become more favorable as the high moves overhead, with winds of around 10 kts by Friday and seas of around 2 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...MAC MARINE...REK/SHK/SRP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.