Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220819 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 419 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TODAY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SOME RELIEF MAY COME WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT THE RETURN OF TRUE SEASONABLE WEATHER PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MINIMAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER RIDGE TO OCCUR THIS PERIOD...WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BASICALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH FROM THE NE STATES AS THE FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT...AKA BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TO THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL BE DEALING WITH PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. AS THE FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES...THOSE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES IE. VORTS...WILL TAKE AIM AT THE ILM CWA ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AS FAR AS POPS THIS PERIOD...WILL INDICATE A 20-30 POP FROM SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. FOR LATER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER VORT AND THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...WILL INDICATE A LOW CHANCE POP. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO A HIGHER MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY...WITH THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE HEAVILY LEANED ON. WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105+ THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A SELECT ILM SC COUNTIES. WILL ISSUE AN AFTERNOON HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...A SPS WILL BE UTILIZED TO CONVEY THE HEAT THAT DOES NOT MEET HEAT ADV CRITERIA BUT NEVERTHELESS COULD STILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IF ONE DOES NOT TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS OR STEPS WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MOS NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY SPREAD BY 5 DEGREES WITH THE MAV WARMER OF THE TWO. HAVE BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...THE ACTUAL CAA LAGS AND THE `COOLING` MAY BE MORE A FUNCTION OF FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOC WITH FROPA. MOS POPS ARE SURPRISINGLY LOW AREA-WIDE...GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWEST CHANCE RANGE. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE PREFER THE 40-ISH POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SEASONABLE AND LESS HUMID AIR STARTS CREEPING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE HOWEVER IS SLOWER TO ADVECT OFF TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS MAY THUS HANG IN ON SUNDAY AND SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...SLIGHTLY FAVORING COASTAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALES WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DRYING BECOMES PRONOUNCED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PUSHES FRONT AND ITS ASSOC MOISTURE EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS BRINGING A NORTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY. THIS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SOME VERY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BOTH RIDGES WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN THE FORM OF NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIR...BUT STILL TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHES OF MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS CALM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUPPORT SOME PATCHY MVFR BR. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SOON AFTER 12Z WITH WNW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS THIS MORNING. AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES ONSHORE...WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME S-SW AROUND 10 KT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTN CONVECTION OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE COASTAL SITES ATTM...EVENTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH TENDS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT VFR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A SFC TROF WILL EXTEND N-S ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO TONIGHT. RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND TO THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS. THE 2 COMBINED WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH REACHING THE DOORSTEPS AT SURF CITY TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL YIELD A 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL DRIVE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. AN UNDERLYING 1 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT SLIDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT WEST WIND THAT SHOULD START VEERING FIRST OVER NORTHERN ZONES IN THE EVENING AND THEN FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS SENSE OF TIMING MAY NEED TWEAKING HOWEVER AS MODELS ARE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE TWO BOUNDARIES. AT LEAST A TURN TO THE NORTH LOOKS CERTAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND THUS WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD GET UNDERWAY. SUNDAY WILL BRING A RATHER ATYPICAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH A LITTLE BIT OF GUSTINESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SCEC TOUGH TO RULE OUT OVER NORTHERN ZONES. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...RATHER UNUSUAL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE FETCH IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE COULD LEAD TO SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL TEND TO STAY SUB-ADVISORY. ALSO INTERESTING BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. NO DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT BUT ITS RELATED SWELLS COULD BE RADIATING THIS WAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH/BJR MARINE...

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